Let's put SanDisk aside for now and look at some truly strong rebound targets tonight 🤣 $XAU has finally shown some improvement, rebounding upward close to 4400. This is the first decent rebound since gold dropped from the 4700 high. How to view the height of this rebound? The possibility of directly breaking through the previous high is low, since the technicals of the prior bullish trend have already deteriorated; if it breaks through the 4700 previous high, that would signal the start of a new trend, but that's a low-probability event. A more likely scenario is a technical rebound, then deciding whether to break upward or continue falling downward based on the situation at that time. The primary task of this rebound is to hold above 4400. The first target after holding is 4480, which was also my take-profit target for the last long position; sigh, no more words, too many tears... NFA, DYOR! #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 @OKX星球

Not buddies, SanDisk $SNDK what are you trying to do??? Just said SanDisk is awesome, and the next second you slap my face😨, isn't this just messing around…… Who could have predicted this opening spike, Mr. Market really knows how to play😂😂 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 @OKX星球

U.S. stock market opens, storage sector rebounds strongly! Led by SanDisk $SNDK, the storage sector surged powerfully, rising nearly 5 points within 15 minutes of the open, which is quite an impressive gain. There have always been voices hyping an AI bubble, but after shouting about the bubble for 3 years, the Nasdaq index has hit new highs year after year 😂 Many friends were very bearish on this storage rally, with loud talk about SanDisk dropping back to 500; but so far, the performance of storage stocks has thoroughly slapped these short sellers in the face. Where will SanDisk head next? Any big players want to weigh in? 🤨 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温

US ADP employment increased by 38,000, below the expected 48,000 This indicates that the US job market is not as strong as anticipated, and the Federal Reserve needs to stimulate the economy to promote employment, corresponding to a loose monetary policy, which is bearish for the dollar So for assets priced in dollars, such as $BTC, this is bullish; of course, the market is currently more focused on tomorrow night's major nonfarm payroll data, with the minor nonfarm data serving as a forward-looking indicator, further whetting the market's appetite 😂 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 @OKX星球

Tonight, the US August ADR employment numbers will be released at 20:15, worth paying attention to. ADR employment numbers, also known as the small non-farm payrolls, are used to evaluate the health of US employment and have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The Federal Reserve will announce a new interest rate policy in September, and the market currently expects a 68% chance of a rate hike at this meeting, which is not very favorable for various assets. With the ADR data release tonight, prices of assets like $XAU and $BTC are expected to experience significant volatility. Friends holding positions, please remember to manage your positions well and be cautious of risks! #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has caused $CL oil prices to surge dramatically, intensifying market fears of inflation and sharply increasing expectations of interest rate hikes; this very logic has led to a steep decline in risk assets, and gold, as a non-yielding asset, has also been affected. So when will risk assets led by BTC warm up? A key indicator is oil prices. Only when oil prices fall will market panic over inflation subside, shifting the logic from trading inflation and rate hikes to trading high-risk preference assets; the saying among experts that "when crude oil falls, all things thrive" reflects this principle. #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 @OKX星球

Let's talk about the $BNB market again The support at 680 for BNB is really strong. Even with BTC breaking below 77,000 in the bigger picture, it hasn't truly broken the support level. Currently, it has returned above the 680 support again. Personally, I am still holding my long position at 685.01 and have no plans to exit; I believe that when BTC completes its correction and continues to rise, BNB can deliver excess returns relative to BTC.

Let's take another look at today's $XAU trend Last night, gold continued to plunge after breaking below 4400, even briefly dropping below 4300. It's really tough for those who were stubbornly bullish... Looking at the 4h K-line chart of gold, the possibility of a short-term top at 4700 is growing; this smooth decline has completely ruined the previous bullish trend of gold, making it increasingly difficult to restart the bullish momentum later on. Maybe we should shift our bullish mindset and focus more on a bearish outlook in the short term? 🤔 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温

The United States and Iran have once again engaged in direct military conflict, and Trump has threatened further strikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East again. Normally, the $XAU script should be like this: war escalation → everyone seeks safe havens → buy gold → gold surges. But this time the script is somewhat different: war escalation → increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz → BZ, $CL crude oil rises → energy inflation risk rises → Fed finds it harder to ease interest rate policy → global bond yields rise → gold falls. Both lines make sense, but currently, the second line clearly dominates: the market's fear of inflation outweighs the demand for safe havens, and the Middle East tensions have become bearish for gold. This also reminds us that many things have two sides; yesterday the market was trading war safe havens, today it may shift to trading inflation and rate hikes; understanding the logic behind these event trades and preparing corresponding plans is essential to be ready for similar events in the future 🫡 #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元

Let's review and discuss several reasons for today's sharp drop in $XAU, listed in order of importance (personal ranking). First, the bond market collapsed: the US 10Y Treasury yield rose to around 4.8%, the highest since early 1998; meanwhile, Japan's 10Y reached 3%, the UK's 10Y exceeded 5.25%, and Germany's 10Y hit 3.36%; this is a global bond sell-off. Second, the hawkish speech by the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller: this directly increased the probability of a Fed rate hike. As of today, the chance of a rate hike in September has risen to 66%; high interest rates undoubtedly suppress gold prices, and the market is already front-running this expectation. Third, the US dollar strengthened: influenced by rate hike expectations, the dollar strengthened against currencies like the yen and the pound, and the dollar index rose; correspondingly, gold prices came under pressure, as people prefer holding dollars over non-yielding gold. Finally, gold had a significant prior rally, so a correction was indeed needed; the above factors further amplified the correction. Attentive readers may have noticed I deliberately omitted an important event, namely the escalation of US-Iran conflict; the impact of this event on gold is complex and will be discussed separately. P.S. Attached below is the US dollar index trend. #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 @OKX星球