9.29 Crypto Market Update: 83,000 Is Not a Reversal, Just a Breather Before the Monthly Close BTC is oscillating between 83,000 and 84,000 USD, ETH around 2,700 USD. The weekly chart has pulled back from 87,000, but the daily chart hasn't broken below 82,500. One number says it all: September is still up about 7% so far, potentially breaking the old pattern since 2013 of "red in August, never green in September"; Q3 has gained over 40% cumulatively. Macro factors are not cooperating. The 10-year US Treasury yield has touched about 5.25%, the highest since 2007; oil prices remain above 90 USD; and Wednesday brings the PCE report. Risk assets should be under pressure, but crypto is just sideways, not crashing. 1 Support is seen at 82,500, with the next level down being the spot ETF holding cost around 81,700. Both levels hold, so pullbacks are still healthy. 2 Futures open interest has dropped from about 760,000 BTC at the start of August to around 630,000 BTC now; prices are up, leverage is down, so this rally doesn't look like a pure leverage top. 3 Sentiment remains in the greed zone (Fear & Greed Index around 74). Sideways movement in greed is the easiest way to wear people out. One pitfall to mention: don't take a "positive close in September" as a guaranteed rise in October. The monthly candle still has one day left; if 80,000 is effectively broken down, the 90,000 story will have to wait. Which line do you care about more now: 82,500 or 80,000? #SeptemberClose #BTC #Macro #ETF #Sideways $BTC $ETH

📊 This Week's Double Data Window: PCE First for Sticky Inflation, Then Nonfarm Payrolls for Rate Hikes This week isn’t about “lots of data,” but two pricing-changing windows overlapping. Wednesday (September 30) will release August PCE, and Friday (October 2) will release September Nonfarm Payrolls. The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, setting the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The market is now pricing about a 68% chance of another hike in October. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.1%, near the highest level since 2007. The recent pullback in risk assets mainly reflects adjustment to this interest rate environment, not a sudden crash from any single monthly data. First, look at Wednesday’s PCE. PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed cares about most. In July, overall year-on-year was 3.7%, core 3.3%, both clearly above the 2% target. August CPI is already out: overall year-on-year about 3.4%, core about 2.4%, month-on-month not weak. Market consensus for August PCE is roughly 0.3%–0.4% month-on-month overall. If core stays near 0.3%, the threshold for an October hike lowers; if core falls clearly below 0.2%, rate trades will breathe easier. Oil prices and geopolitics remain, so energy components tend to push the overall number higher—watching core is more useful than headline. Then look at Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. August added 162,000 jobs, expected only about 56,000, with the previous two months revised up by about 55,000 combined. That directly pushed the September hike probability from about 50/50 to near 60%. The consensus for September is roughly 80,000 to 100,000, clearly lower than August, but as long as it’s not below the breakeven line needed to keep unemployment stable, it’s hard to read as “employment collapsed.” Unemployment was 4.1% in August. If average hourly earnings year-on-year rise again, that hurts risk assets more than the number of new jobs itself. The transmission path is short: strong data → short-term rates and dollar rise → valuations get compressed → leveraged longs get liquidated first. In the past day, crypto market long liquidations were about twice shorts, indicating positions were overheated, not a sudden fundamental shift bearish. One pitfall: don’t tie Wednesday and Friday into the same trade. If PCE is weak and Nonfarm strong, the market will pick rates; if PCE is strong and Nonfarm weak, the market will pick stagflation trades. Trading both simultaneously most easily gives back the first trade’s profits when the second data comes out. What really matters is not the price moves themselves, but whether the probability of an October hike after Friday’s close moves away from the 65%–70% gate. If the gate doesn’t move, rebounds above 80,000 are still just fluctuations within the data week. Are you moving only after data lands this week, or locking in direction early? #Nonfarm #PCE #Fed #CryptoMacro #RateTrades $BTC $ETH $OKB

#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 📊 This week features key Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE data: 162,000 vs. 100,000, the inflation gauge lands first August Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162,000, yet the market has cut September expectations to about 100,000; Core PCE remains stuck at 3.3% annually. The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, and the pricing for another 25 basis point hike on October 28 remains above 60%. BTC digested the rate hike near $83,000. This week is not about waiting for excitement but about repricing the October meeting. Times are in Beijing Time: 1 Wednesday 20:30: August personal income and spending, with the core focus on PCE. Market expectations are overall PCE up 0.4% monthly, 3.7% annually; core PCE up 0.3% monthly, still about 3.3% annually. Also on the agenda are the third estimate of Q2 GDP and ADP employment. 2 Thursday: Initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing. Used to verify if the cooling in employment is genuine or just a false signal. 3 Friday 20:30: September Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, with monthly hourly earnings growth expected at 0.3%. Tuesday also features JOLTS job openings as a prelude, with officials speaking frequently. A pitfall: focusing only on Friday’s Nonfarm numbers and treating Wednesday’s PCE as a side note. The Fed’s real inflation gauge is PCE, not the Nonfarm headline. The 162,000 in August already shattered the narrative that "employment collapsed so no rate hike." If Wednesday’s core PCE monthly rate rises above 0.3%, even if Friday’s employment is only 100,000, the pricing for an October hike may not retreat. Conversely, good employment numbers with falling hourly wages and rising unemployment rate indicate true cooling. Employment numbers are often revised; hourly wages and core PCE determine the real interest rates of the dollar and U.S. bonds, which in turn determine the discount rate for zero-coupon assets like BTC. Meeting expectations does not equal good news. When both sides meet expectations, it often only results in wide volatility; the market moves on the side that exceeds expectations—core PCE overheating or a clear acceleration in hourly wages. Volatility around data windows is amplified, suitable for deleveraging and setting stop-loss conditions, not for treating the macro calendar as a trading alarm. This week, do you watch PCE first or Nonfarm first? $BTC $ETH #非农 #PCE #美联储

📊 $BTC Inflows of 2.8 Billion Over 6 Days: ETF Has Recovered the First Half's Deficit Over 6 trading days, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.8 billion. The same group of products was still down $5.5 billion at the end of June. This is not just a slogan; it's a fact confirmed by Farside and SoSoValue. 1. Where the money came from From September 17 to 24, there were net subscriptions for 6 consecutive trading days. On September 21, a single-day peak of $999 million was reached, marking the largest single-day inflow in 2026. BlackRock's IBIT alone took in about $1.35 billion, nearly half of the total for these 6 days. Fidelity's FBTC followed closely. 2. How the ledger turned around In the first half of this year, the spot ETF once had a net outflow exceeding $5 billion. Near the mid-July low point, the cumulative loss for the year was still about $5.7 billion. After pouring in $2.8 billion over these 6 days, the annual net inflow returned to a range of about $780 million to $880 million. August saw an inflow of about $3.5 billion for the whole month, and by the time of writing in September, it has exceeded $2.5 billion. Institutions are not just shouting slogans; they are replenishing positions through compliant channels. 3. Price did not keep pace On the day with the strongest inflow, BTC touched $87,000 intraday. In the following 3 trading days, inflows dropped from $715 million and $347 million to $191 million, a decline of over 80%. The coin price also fell from the high to around $83,000 to $84,000. Continuous inflows remain, but the momentum has clearly slowed. One pitfall to clarify: Continuous net inflows over 6 days do not mean another $1 billion will come tomorrow. ETF is an institutional allocation tool, not a perpetual motion machine. The drop from $999 million to $191 million in a single day shows the pulse buying is fading. Translating "continuous inflows" directly as "imminent new highs" is mistaking a weather vane for an accelerator. When the fisherman looks at this kind of data, he only remembers three things: How long the inflows last, whether the main force is still concentrated in IBIT, and whether the daily numbers are continuously shrinking. The first two are still true this round; the third has changed. $2.8 billion can cover the first half's deficit, indicating that money in compliant channels still recognizes BTC. Recognition aside, positions should still be managed according to one's own risk tolerance, not leveraged based on news headlines. In these 6 days, do you believe institutions are accumulating or is this the last wave before selling off? #BTC #BitcoinSpotETF #IBIT #InstitutionalFunds #CryptoMarket #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 $BTC

SUI has surged from around 0.67 to above 1.1 this week, an increase of nearly half. It's not just pure sentiment; several factors have combined. 🔥 October 7-8 Singapore Basecamp: Mysten Labs' product lead announced that upcoming releases will take Sui finance to another level. Details weren't disclosed, but the agenda is all about agent payments, private transfers, and instant settlement. The market has already priced in these expectations. ⛽ Stablecoin transfers with 0 Gas fees: Implemented at the protocol layer, not wallet subsidies. Transferring USDT no longer requires buying SUI to pay gas. Africa's Daya is already using it for enterprise settlements. 📱 DeepBook App just launched (9.24): An on-chain order book made into an app, combining spot and prediction markets. 🏦 Institutional side: Just joined the Linux Foundation's LF Decentralized Trust, sitting at the same table with Swift and Wells Fargo discussing tokenization standards. On the technical side, the 9-month downtrend has been broken, shorts have been squeezed, and L1 rotation is adding fuel. Only one pitfall: the big moves haven't landed yet; the current rise is based on the story. Leverage is not low, so if the news fails to materialize or the market shakes, the pullback could be swift. Will you add positions before Basecamp, or wait to see the actual rollout? #SUI #SuiNetwork #cryptocurrency $SUI