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ETF Capital Inflows Meet CPI: The Market Is Experiencing a Key Verification
Information as of 06:54 Beijing time on August 10
According to SoSoValue data (compiled by The Block), US spot BTC and ETH ETFs combined saw net inflows of about $1.1 billion last week, marking the best week since April, with BTC at about $854 million and ETH at about $245 million. However, BTC ETF weekly turnover fell by about 9%, indicating that the real capital inflow remains concentrated and cannot be equated with a broad return in risk appetite
The next key event is the US July CPI. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12. If CPI falls short of expectations, US dollar and US Treasury yields may retreat, increasing the likelihood of ETF funds continuing; If CPI is hot, interest rate expectations tighten again, putting pressure on BTC, ETH, and highly volatile coins.
In the coming days, the focus will be on whether ETFs continue to flow in, the direction of US dollar and US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can break out of its sideways consolidation. The evidence for the negative side is that ETF trading volume remains low, and this round of capital inflows has not yet spread.
In response, they do not predict data outcomes or amplify leverage before release; wait for fluctuations to settle and observe the flow of funds after the data
Today's event risk level: High. Institutional funds have flowed back, but CPI will test whether this recovery can continue.
What do you think is the more important confirmation signal after CPI: will the ETF continue to flow in, or will BTC break out of its consolidation range?
#BTC #CPI
This article is solely a personal market observation and does not constitute investment adviceFrom August 3 to 7, the US spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed $853.5 million in one go, marking five consecutive days of net inflows, with $98.8 million in revenue on Friday alone. At the same time, Ethereum ETFs were also active, bringing in $244.9 million in five days. Together, the weekly volume was $1 billion, while in July, BTC ETFs only flowed in $172 million, nearly five times that in the first five days of August. The money did come back, but the question was whether the money that came back could withstand the upcoming big rally.
Let's clarify the background. In May and June, these ETFs lost nearly 7 billion yuan in losses, and the 4.5 billion yuan redemption in June alone is the worst in history. BTC was pushed from its peak all the way down to just over 60,000. The bleeding barely stopped in July, and in early August, this wave of inflows looked more like institutions shifting from "withdrawing" to "testing to buy back." Currently, $BTC is hovering around $65,000. On August 10, it was quoted at $65,019, $ETH standing above $1,900, testing the $2,000 mark. The price has indeed stabilized with the funds, but note one detail: the panic and greed index is only 25, still in the extreme fear range. Money is flowing in, but sentiment has not returned. This divergence usually means this round of return is allocation buying bargains, not sentiment chasing.
Looking at the structure, IBIT contributed the majority of the 800 million, with about 690 million yuan in five days, accounting for 80%. Simply put, BlackRock is holding the line, while other products that should be redeemed are still being redeemed instead. Hashdex simply announced liquidation and delisting. This kind of capital concentration is a double-edged sword: IBIT keeps buying, so the price has a bottom; But if IBIT's traffic ever stops, the market support will actually be very thin. Also, Strategy just sold 1,638 BTC to exchange for cash flow, and big players are using this wave of rebound to sell off. The market isn't just about bull stories.
ETH is actually more interesting. In July, the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthened, with ETFs accounting for 4.65% of net assets. On Thursday, the 92 million in inflows was aimed at the 2,000 mark. ETH's ecosystem narrative and staking yields add a cash flow story to institutional allocation logic compared to "digital gold," with clear signs of capital adding between BTC and ETH.
Whether it can be relayed depends on one core contradiction: is this wave of inflow a trend reversal or a rebound recovery from a downward transition? On the positive side, the ETF's total net assets have returned to 79.5 billion, with cumulative net inflows of 52.2 billion, and traditional capital channels still exist; On the bearish side, fear, single-point reliance on IBIT, and trapped positions above are all present. My judgment is that in the short term, BTC will hold 63,000-64,000, ETH will hold 1850, and if the return inflow continues into next week, a relay will be established; If IBIT turns to a single-day net outflow and breaks below support, this wave will be giving liquidity to the bears. Focus on capital flow, not price and guess. #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? $BTC
The more I look around, the more convinced I am that this is the scenario 90% of people are positioning for.
"Just fill my long first, then pump."
It feels like we're at that stage of the cycle where everyone is trying to play guru and catch the macro bottom, even though the cycles are shifting.
We saw a new ATH before the halving for the first time in Bitcoin's history. We're also seeing cycle bottoms form progressively sooner. Likewise, this cycle appeared to top earlier others. These are meaningful structural changes that a lot of people seem to dismiss because they expect every cycle to follow the same 4 year pattern.
I think a lot of people are going to learn this lesson the hard way. The obvious trade is rarely the one that pays, and catching the exact bottom has never been as straightforward as people make it out to be.
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering Storage selling pressure seems to have eased, but can we still hold the AI memory rally this time?
After the major storage manufacturers released their earnings reports, this market has remained unstable, with shocking fluctuations.
SanDisk and Western Digital actually made even better earnings than the market expected this time. Their performance was impressive, and their stock prices should have surged.
As a result, both companies have been extremely conservative about their future business expectations, and the market instantly calmed down. Everyone is torn down on a real question: can the current demand for AI memory still support the current inflated stock price?
Not just these two—storage giants like Micron and SK Hynix have seen their stock prices suppressed and declined recently, with the entire sector showing weakness.
However, there has been a very direct change in the market recently: South Korea's stock market has tightened regulations on leveraged ETFs, and after the implementation of mandatory liquidation, local market volatility has dropped to its lowest level in two months.
This makes it clear that the batch of funds previously dumped through high leverage have basically been withdrawn, and the short-term selling pressure has indeed eased considerably.
Meanwhile, SK Hynix has also made a major move, planning to invest 54.3 trillion won to expand its Yongin and Cheongju factories, increasing AI memory capacity.
There are also reports that the company is considering a large-scale shareholder reward plan, but the specific amounts for dividends and buybacks have not yet been determined, so there is no concrete evidence yet.
Currently, market views are directly divided into two camps, with significant divisions.
Some believe the previous sharp drop was purely caused by leveraged funds fleeing. Now that the capital retreat has ended and the market has repriced storage stocks, short-term risks have been fully released. The long-term demand logic for AI memory remains unchanged, and the market can still move.
However, many people remain uncertain, believing that the current situation is only short-term easing of selling pressure. The sector valuation is too high, manufacturers are collectively expanding production, and companies are issuing conservative earnings guidance. These three core issues remain unresolved, and there is still a risk of decline going forward.
Looking at the prices of several related stocks now, the divergence in price matches two completely opposite market views: XSNDK edged up 0.48%, Western Digital WDC fell 0.31%, and XMU fell 0.78%.
A sincere advice: don't rush in to buy the dip just because selling pressure eases. Right now, the entire sector doesn't have a unified upward trend.
On one hand, leading companies are pouring heavily into expanding AI memory production, with long-term demand in the sector; On the other hand, manufacturers are cautious about the market outlook, overall valuations are high, short-term capital sentiment is unstable, and the market can change at any time.
Going forward, only two key matters need to be closely monitored: first, the complete implementation details of SK Hynix's shareholder reward plan; second, the new performance expectations for each storage manufacturer next quarter.
These two types of news are the real keys to judging whether the AI memory bull market can continue.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 🔸Jepang Memegang US$1,1 Triliun Treasury AS. $USDT
Jepang menjadi pemegang Treasury AS terbesar dengan sekitar US$1,1 triliun, diikuti Inggris sekitar US$945 miliar dan China sekitar US$670 miliar per Mei 2026.
Besarnya kepemilikan Jepang membuat setiap aksi jual besar-besaran berpotensi memberikan tekanan pada harga Treasury dan menaikkan yield AS.
🔸Dampaknya ke Pasar?
Jika Jepang mulai mengurangi kepemilikan Treasury, yield US Treasury berpotensi naik karena meningkatnya supply di pasar, yang dapat memperketat kondisi finansial global.
Bagi crypto, kenaikan yield dan penguatan dolar AS umumnya menjadi headwind bagi $BTC dan aset berisiko, sehingga arah kepemilikan Treasury Jepang perlu diperhatikan.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus ETH 1H market data
It surged to 1938 and quickly retreated, with the current price approaching the SuperTrend watershed at 1911.71.
Hold 1911, repair 1928-1938;
The real market fell below 1911, turning back to 1902.
Keep a close eye on the 64,000 BTC indicator, waiting for the chosen direction to be $BTC $ETH Bitcoin $65,000 Battle: Momentum Recovery and Institutional Accumulation Window Amid Deep Imbalance
In early August 2026, Bitcoin engaged in a critical battle around the $65,000 level. The spot ETF recorded net inflows exceeding $850 million over five consecutive days, with BlackRock accumulating nearly $700 million in a single week, resonating with the rate cut expectations triggered by weak nonfarm payroll data. This article analyzes the underlying logic and risk boundaries of the current BTC long structure from three dimensions: order book depth imbalance, multi-timeframe momentum recovery, and macro liquidity inflection points, and provides a practical trading management framework.
1. Order Book Depth Imbalance: The "Invisible Floor" Revealed by 71.31% Buy-Side Depth
Currently, Bitcoin’s order book between $65,100 and $65,200 shows an extremely rare depth imbalance: buy-side depth accounts for 71.31%, while sell-side is only 28.69%. This ratio means that near key support, buyers overwhelm sellers with more than a 2.5:1 advantage, forming a de facto "liquidity moat."
This depth imbalance is not accidental. On-chain data shows that mid-to-large wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC cumulatively increased their holdings by 19,696 BTC from late July to early August, indicating systematic accumulation by whales near $65,000. Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for five consecutive days from August 3 to 7, totaling $853.5 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for about $693 million, or 81%.
Notably, this buy-side buildup is deeply connected to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate control mechanism shared by users in December 2025. At that time, the Fed removed the $500 billion daily limit on standing repo (SRP), allowing banks to borrow unlimited amounts from the Fed using Treasury bonds as collateral, significantly increasing market liquidity. The ongoing ETF inflows directly reflect this liquidity easing environment on the crypto asset side.
2. Multi-Timeframe Momentum Recovery: Resonance Signals from 1H MACD to 4H Zero-Line Contraction
From a technical indicator perspective, BTC currently shows a typical "short-term bullish, long-term recovery" structure:
1-hour timeframe: MACD histogram at +14.9 indicates bullish momentum has not faded; RSI reads 64.79, within a healthy range and below the overbought threshold (70). This suggests short-term upside still has room without pullback pressure from overheated indicators.
4-hour timeframe: MACD histogram is contracting below the zero line, showing systematic weakening of bearish momentum. Combined with the Bollinger Bands middle line at $64,484—about $500 below the current price as a safety buffer—even short-term pullbacks have sufficient technical support.
Funding rate and open interest: Current funding rate is 0.0093%, well below the 0.03% overheat warning line; open interest remains stable with no signs of excessive leverage expansion. Binance BTCUSDT perpetual contract long-to-short ratio is 53.4% to 46.6%, near balance, indicating no one-sided crowding in the market.
This "momentum recovery without overheating" state aligns closely with the January 2026 user analysis stating "Bitcoin needs sustained momentum accumulation to effectively break key resistance levels." The current $65,000 level is such a "power accumulation zone" requiring gradual momentum buildup.
3. Macro Liquidity Inflection: Dual Catalysts of Weak Nonfarm Payrolls and Rate Cut Expectations
The US July nonfarm payroll data released on August 8 became the most important recent macro catalyst: nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase, with the previous value revised down by 103,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, clearly signaling labor market cooling.
This data directly reshaped Fed policy expectations: the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from about 55% to 42%, while rate cut expectations rose to 56%. For Bitcoin, a risk asset with no yield, the "bad news is good news" logic applies again—lower rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and improve overall liquidity conditions.
On a longer timeframe, Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart currently prices BTC in the "Fire Sale" zone, with the model’s fair value "HODL" band around $181,200, nearly three times the current price. Historical data shows that every time BTC falls into the deepest blue band of the Rainbow Chart, it is often followed by significant medium- to long-term rebounds—the post-2022 FTX crash rally is a clear example.
4. Trading Structure Breakdown: Sniping Logic with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:1.5
Based on the above analysis, BTC currently forms a practical long structure near $65,000:
Entry logic: The $65,132.72–$65,200.00 range is the core area of buy-side depth accumulation, where active selling pressure is systematically absorbed. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands middle line at $64,484 provides about a $500 technical safety buffer.
Stop loss setting: $64,548 is the critical point where the buy-side structure breaks. If breached, the 71.31% buy-side depth advantage is lost, invalidating the trend logic and requiring an immediate exit.
Target management: The first target at $66,178 corresponds to the upper edge of a previous dense trading zone; upon reaching it, reduce position by 50% and move stop loss to breakeven to achieve a "zero-risk position." The second target at $66,667 is the neckline resistance zone; a breakout here opens the path to the $67,000–$70,000 range.
Risk-reward ratio: Based on an average entry price of $65,166, the stop loss distance is about $618, and the first target distance is about $1,012, yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.64, within an acceptable sniping range.
Scenario One (Base Case): BTC consolidates between $64,000 and $66,600, with continuous ETF inflows but no breakout. In this scenario, the core strategy is "no chasing highs, protect stop loss," looking for add-on opportunities near the lower range. #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $BICO The divergence in BTCFi architecture routes has led to a bullish vs. bearish confrontation between $CORE and MERL in value capture. CORE adopts a non-custodial CLTV time lock and mixed consensus, while MERL relies on MPC custody and a 50% ecosystem profit buyback expectation. If institutional-level liquid staking breaks through and L2 trading volume continues to surge, a bullish pattern is established. If the market is torn between relay decentralization doubts and custodian counterparty risks, tokens will maintain a range cleanup. Observation indicators include a sharp increase in CLTV unlock withdrawal rates or block release delays at ranking nodes exceeding expectations.
#标普收盘再创新高. The 8,000-point level is expected to heat up #伯克希尔结束净卖出, restarting large-scale allocation #CLARITY表决推迟至9月 and moving the regulatory window backwardEthereum has recently been in turmoil again, and the core issue is one thing
Should there be an upper limit on ETH staking rates?
Currently, the staking ratio across the entire network has exceeded 33%, and EIP 8363's goal is very straightforward: as the staking rate approaches 50%, it gradually burns the rewards newly issued by validators. Once it exceeds 50%, validators can basically only earn money through fees and MEV, rather than continuing to issue additional ETH
I think this matter is superficially talking about staking, but in reality, it's about what ETH really wants to be in the future
If there are no restrictions, more and more ETH will be locked into staking pools, exchanges, and liquid staking protocols. For ordinary people who don't stake, there will be a passive feeling over time—if you don't stake, your relative share of ETH will be diluted
Supporters of EIP 8363 believe it can reduce the unlimited expansion of large institutions and leading liquid staking protocols, and also make ETH's monetary attributes a bit tougher. After all, not everyone is willing to hand over assets to centralized platforms or staking protocols just to avoid dilution
But opposition is also very real
Now, ETH staking yields have become a crucial interest rate anchor in DeFi. Lending, LSTs, leveraged cycles, and many other strategies are priced around this yield. If rewards are gradually reduced near 50%, institutions may find it harder to assess yields, and small independent validators may be unable to hold out because their machines, electricity, and maintenance costs won't decrease
What's more noteworthy is that once issuance rewards decrease, MEV will account for a higher proportion of validator income. But MEV has never been a game for ordinary people; it's about technology, scale, and order flow, which may actually give large nodes an advantage
So this is not simply a matter of positive or negative news
Restrictions may protect ETH holders who do not stake, and also suppress staking, centralization
No restrictions, staking yields are more stable, and DeFi yield models are easier to implement
But whichever side you choose, it could bring new centralization issues
Currently, this is only the discussion phase, not a set rule for launch. Even if it is further advanced, there will be a long transition period
Personally, I care more about the 50% figure than whether ETH can strike a balance between security, decentralization, and DeFi vitality. After all, the security budget can't be added indefinitely, and yields can't exist forever without cost
Do you think ETH staking rates should be capped? $ETH Market Dynamics: Ethereum's proposed upgrade $ETH could strip it of its native yield and force SharpLink's $125 million in reserves to be diverted to riskier DeFi. The EIP-8363 supply with a staking volume of 60.25 million ETH will make the net consensus profit zero; revenue sources will shift towards variable fees, MEV, and DeFi yields.
#OKXTraderVoices #NewHereStartHere Capital Is Chasing Momentum, but Reversal Risk Is Rising
The market looks strongly bullish on the surface, with $BOME up 38.94%, $PEOPLE 23.96%, $NEIRO 18.05%, $SCR 14.00%, $PNUT 13.02%, and $PUMP 12.79%. But the more important signal is where liquidity is actually moving.
Capital is increasingly concentrating in speculative assets. Meme-related tokens such as $BOME, $PEOPLE, $NEIRO, $PNUT, $PUMP, $MEME, and $GOAT are rising together, suggesting that traders are becoming more willing to take risks and chase short-term momentum.
AI-related tokens, however, are showing clear divergence. $AIXBT gained 10.86%, $ACT 9.39%, and $PROMPT 8.79%, while $KAITO fell 5.59% and $CHIP dropped 5.49%. This suggests capital is rotating between individual projects rather than buying the entire AI narrative.
The downside tells an equally important story. $BICO plunged 22.72%, while $ACE fell 14.57%, $AEON 11.51%, and $CAT 7.66%. When some tokens are gaining 20–40% while others are suffering double-digit losses, liquidity is highly fragmented. This looks more like selective speculation than a broad Altseason.
Several of the strongest movers also have leveraged trading available. That does not prove leverage is increasing, but Open Interest, funding rates, and liquidations are worth watching closely. If OI rises rapidly while funding becomes excessively positive, the probability of a long squeeze could increase.
The hidden signal is therefore not that “all altcoins are getting stronger.” Instead, liquidity is aggressively chasing momentum while abandoning assets that lose market attention.
Is this the beginning of a broader risk-on rotation, or are traders simply chasing the next short-lived pump?
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#OKXOrbitTopics
#DailyOrbit Honestly, this pullback in storage stocks is well deserved. SanDisk has risen thirty times in a year, Micron has surged to a trillion yuan market cap—anyone watching this has to catch their breath. It's perfectly normal for profit-takers to dump their stocks. But the selling pressure has clearly eased in recent days, indicating the market doesn't reject this logic—it's just complaining about the price. The demand side hasn't changed at all: HBM capacity was sold out this year, Micron itself admits it can only meet half of its major customers' supply, DRAM has risen 30% quarter-on-quarter for two consecutive quarters, and DDR5 spot prices have jumped from $5.5 to $40 in a year. This isn't sentiment speculation—it's a real shortage. Is the bull market stable? I think it's stable, but the strategy has changed—from 'blindly rising' to 'earnings verification as it goes.' Any slight performance performance is a 30% falloff.
Crypto is in an awkward position. As of the early hours of August 10, $BTC was at $65,130, $ETH at $1,929, $SOL at $77, and the Panic and Greed Index was only 25. US storage stocks have AI capital spending as a foundation, so some will pick up on pullbacks; The crypto world relies on liquidity; when Treasury yields rise and ETF funds withdraw, no one takes the hit. Still using the "AI narrative," while others speculate on orders and gross profits, while crypto speculates on expectations and risk appetite. So stable storage stocks don't mean coins will follow—when the US dollar index loosens, ETFs see net inflows again, and BTC stabilizes above 66,000, then the AI bull market spillover will truly hit crypto. Now? Watch the drama first, don't rush to overinvest. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $BTC $ETH
Stablecoin reserves on Binance have noticeably decreased, while BTC and ETH volumes remain stable. According to CryptoQuant data, USDC has dropped to $4.3 billion — the lowest level since October 2025, and USDT has fallen to $38.4 billion, also a minimum since the end of June. Against this backdrop, BTC holds around 660,000 coins, and ETH is at 3.8 million coins, which corresponds to early summer levels.
🫱 This divergence may indicate a redistribution of liquidity: traders might be temporarily withdrawing stablecoins, reducing dollar liquidity on the exchange, while maintaining positions in base assets. This could reflect expectations of macroeconomic events, where market participants prefer to hold firmer assets.
❗️The coming days will be crucial for assessing inflation in the US — CPI will be released on Wednesday, and PPI on Thursday. These reports could change expectations regarding Fed rates and set the market’s direction.
If inflation turns out higher than forecasts, a short-term correction is possible, while moderate data could give the market a breather. In any case, the balance between stablecoin liquidity and the resilience of BTC and ETH will become an important indicator of investor sentiment. Tonight's candlestick seemed to have been gently pushed; the ETF data was clearly shining brightly, but I stared blankly at the losses in my own account. Why do good things always happen in other people's positions? I reviewed my trading over the past few days, and honestly, I felt a bit embarrassed. The spot Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow was $865 million, a 15-week high. BlackRock alone saw $694 million; Ethereum also saw net inflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling $244 million. Institutions were seriously buying assets, but I went to short a small coin. BICO—yes, that's it. On the night of August 6th, I predicted the market would pull back, opened a short position at 0.0314, and it was blown up within minutes. Unwilling to give up, I bought another short position at the previous high of 0.0665, but the result was exactly the same—my stop loss was swept away, and I lost 10 USD in total over two trips. Not much, but that's two-thirds of my salary from last week. I admit, at that moment I got emotionally charged. Seeing it rise so much, I thought, "It's bound to drop," so I rushed in hoping for a short-term pullback. But the market told me: Who are you? Why do you think it should fall? Now that I've calmed down, I think what really matters is not the loss itself, but the sector strength signals it exposes. - On the mainstream asset side, institutions are continuously increasing their positions, BTC and ETH are bottoming upward, and the trend is upward. - On the smaller coin side, if BICO can continuously pull strong bullish lines, it means funds are looking for highly elastic stocks, and sentiment is hot. - But hot money and allocation are two different paths; ETF inflows represent long-term investmentThe BIP-110 fork has officially occurred. Two new blocks were generated simultaneously on-chain, and the Bitcoin network entered a rare state of competition. And now, the harshest part has arrived—Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism is taking over.
---
The reality after the fork:
The two chains continued separately, but their hash rate began to split. According to Bitcoin's design, the block production speed of minority chains would slow sharply because difficulty was not adjusted in time, and the hashrate was insufficient to support a normal block production rhythm. The result was: minority chains began to stagnate, transactions could not be confirmed, and block times increased from 10 minutes to 30 minutes, 1 hour, or even longer.
This is not a technical malfunction; it is the self-protection of Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism—it allows a minority chain to naturally die unless there is enough hash power to return.
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Ongoing changes:
On X and Discord, supporters' discussions have shifted from "which chain is correct" to a more practical question—whether PoW algorithms should be changed for minority chains to "fire" the existing miner community.
The logic behind this proposal is:
· If a few chains cannot attract enough hash power, they will always be stuck between low difficulty and high latency
· Changing the PoW algorithm allows miners to prevent direct use of existing ASIC devices, thereby "resetting" the hash power distribution
· But this means minority chains will completely lose compatibility with the main chain and become an entirely new network
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Core Risks:
1. Intensified concentration of hashrate: If algorithms change, large miners controlling hash power will be "fired," but this does not necessarily lead to decentralization—the new network's hash power may be more dispersed but also controlled by new interest groups.
2. Risk of community fragmentation: This discussion itself shows that supporters of minority chains have realized they cannot win in the computing power competition. Forcibly changing the algorithm means completely abandoning the original intention of the "Satoshi Nakamoto consensus."
3. Asset security issues: During the fork, if you hold BTC private keys, there will be corresponding balances on both chains. But if you make transactions during the fork, you might replay the attack on one chain—the simplest way is: don't touch your BTC during the fork, wait until the situation becomes clearer.
Conclusion:
The BIP-110 fork is a stress test of Bitcoin's governance mechanism. Stagnation of minority chains is not a bug, but part of Bitcoin's design—hashrate determines legitimacy. The discussion about "firing miners" is essentially a minority trying to solve the hashrate disadvantage through political means. This is not new in Bitcoin's history, but successful cases are rare.
For ordinary holders: hold positions without moving, do not arbitrarily operate forked coins, and do not send trades on unstable chains. Let the market and hash power decide which chain survives. All you need to do is wait.Originally, I saw the market trend was inertia and topping, so I casually opened a 5x short position for BICO, directly falling into the small-cap standalone market, serving as a solid warning to everyone! Current situation: BICO perpetual isolated 5x short position, average opening price 0.04765, current price 0.07733, floating loss of 4602.66U, with a loss of 310.54%. Even though the current margin ratio is still 668.99% and there is no liquidation for now, the coin surged 32.89% in a single day, completely deviating from the BTC market rhythm. The cost of shorting small-cap coins against the trend is extremely painful. Key pitfall review points: 1. Small-cap off-market stocks easily experience independent price spikes, so you cannot blindly short by following the BTC market trend; 2. 5x leverage may not seem high, but losses can quickly amplify in a one-sided surge, with very low margin for error; 3. Blindly watching pullbacks and shorting at the top is the most common fatal mistake for beginners. Currently, 56% of the market is buying and capital continues to enter the market, and short-term bullish momentum is strong. Holding positions against the trend will only make you deeper trapped. A word of advice to all crypto friends: don't go short against the trend lightly; prioritizing the trend + strict control of position leverage is the survival principle. Has anyone else suffered losses from counterfeit shorting? Share the pitfalls 👇 you've fallen into in the comments #存储股抛压缓和 Is the AI memory bull market still stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? $BTC $ETH $BICO 美股大盘波动与 $XQQQ 呈现出清晰的结构性共振。这种跨市场斜率的变化，决定着资金在防守止损与仓位配置上的博弈空间。若美股科技板块突破关键位置，两者同频走强的信号将进一步放大。一旦联动关系出现阶段性失真并触及防守边界，观察重点需立即转向美股大盘的成交量变化。
#Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键KAITO 价格短时下挫6%，市场情绪再度承压。该币种日内走势明显走弱，引发部分交易者对项目方操盘手法与流动性的质疑，社交媒体上出现“缺乏道德底线”等批评声音。与此同时，市场参与者将本轮异动与早前 LAB 的极端行情相类比，彼时 LAB 在暴跌过程中出现交易断连，与现货市场的价差一度显著扩大，进一步放大了杠杆头寸的清算风险。 从盘面数据看，KAITO 的急跌伴随成交量放大，表明抛售压力较为集中，短线多头承接力度不足。LAB 的历史走势则显示，在极端波动环境下，部分交易平台的报价更新延迟与风控机制失效可能加剧价格失真，从而引发连环止损。两起事件共同指向当前市场中部分新上市代币的深度不足问题，在行情剧烈波动时，盘口厚度与跨所价差控制能力面临考验。 宏观层面，市场正密切关注即将公布的美国就业数据与 CPI 报告，美联储货币政策预期的不确定性使风险资产普遍承压，加密市场亦难独善其身。与此同时，人工智能主题代币的集体回调与 SpaceX 相关概念资产的解锁传闻，使得资金避险情绪升温，短线投机资金加速撤离高波动品种。 分析人士指出，KAITO 与 LAB 的走势并非孤立事件，而是当前市场流动性分层The White House is stirring up trouble again. Pushing to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
The market generally interprets this as political pressure—the White House wants to pressure the Fed to cut rates, because at the current 3.5%-3.75% rate, the federal government pays nearly $1 trillion in interest on government bonds annually. With a total debt of $40 trillion, interest expenses have become a heavy burden on the fiscal system.
But the Fed's independence is not just for show. Last time Trump tried to intervene in the Fed, the market actually reversed.
My judgment: Cook will not be fired. The legal process is extremely difficult and will trigger market panic. The White House is doing this more as a gesture—to send the market a signal that "I'm working hard to cut rates."
But what truly matters is that if the White House can influence Fed appointments, in the long run, market confidence in Fed independence will be eroded. One of the credit foundations of the dollar is this independence.
This is a double-edged sword for BTC. In the short term, political intervention → a decline in US dollar credit → BTC benefits. In the long run, if the Fed truly becomes a political tool, the entire macro pricing logic will have to be rewritten.Berkshire ended a 14-quarter period of net selling, indicating that main funds are beginning to absorb marginal risks in a high interest rate environment, but defensive cash remains at historic highs, and market bulls and bears are shifting toward valuation pressure.
Berkshire bought about $23.5 billion in stock and sold $3.7 billion in a single quarter, achieving a net purchase of about $19.8 billion, breaking a 14-quarter streak of net selling. Of this, about $10 billion was invested in Alphabet, $4.5 billion executed in stock buybacks, directly pushing cash reserves down from nearly $400 billion to about $365.5 billion.
The trading order of driving factors is as follows: First, the valuation recovery of leading heavyweight stocks has improved allocation cost-effectiveness; Second, the marginal decline in cash yields in a high interest rate environment has triggered asset rebalancing; Third, market divergence over inflation paths has driven tail funds back into the market.
From the perspective of event risk transmission mechanisms, the release of about $34.5 billion in cash has improved overall risk appetite, and the shift in position allocation has reduced immediate market concerns about liquidity depletion. If inflation data fluctuates and rate cut expectations are delayed, risk assets will face dual transmission pressures from high valuation corrections and position-trapped positions.
The trigger for an upward scenario is that core stocks like Alphabet continue to confirm valuation support, and US inflation indicators are steadily declining. The key variable to watch is whether Berkshire will maintain its net buying pace in subsequent quarters and whether its cash reserves will remain below $365.5 billion. The failure signal is that long-term Treasury yields have broken through previous highs again, causing risk appetite to pull back rapidly.
The downside scenario triggers the condition that sticky inflation forces high interest rates to persist longer, suppressing tech earnings and causing a temporary valuation correction on a net purchase of $19.8 billion in a single quarter. The variable to watch is whether the US market index can absorb the selling at high levels; the failure signal is Berkshire Hathaway's resumption of net selling in subsequent quarters and cash rebounding above $400 billion.
If there is a sudden tightening of macro liquidity, or if this $19.8 billion net purchase is confirmed to be only a short-term position adjustment, the logic of the main control funds' inference of the market valuation bottom will fail.
In the next 7 days, focus on the volume support of heavyweight U.S. stocks during the earnings window period, as well as the marginal impact of long-term government bond yield trends on institutional position adjustments.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take the lead? #黄金升破4300美元, are funds on edge or risk avoidance?$BTC
Regardless of whether measured from cycle bottom-to-bottom (blue), or from cycle top-to-bottom (yellow)
the date for the next bottom, IF it holds true again, will be around Oct 6, 2026.
BOTH measurements line up around Oct 6, 2026.
Fascinating, if nothing else.
Note that the pattern does not hold prior to 2015.
This is all just an observation.
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #AIMemorySelloffEases #$OKB Major News: $OKB On-chain Big Data, OKB-X-LAYER On-Chain Ecosystem Daily Report (8-10)
1. Underlying Public Chain Metrics
1. DeFi TVL: $116.4 million, 24h slight +0.14%, funds stabilizing sideways
2. Cumulative active addresses: 4.2 million+; Total number of transactions> 400 million
3. Total on-chain stablecoin issuance: $2.07 billion, with USDG accounting for the majority, firmly ranking among the global top ten
2. OKB staking consumption
1. Exchange-OS (On-chain self-built exchange): No large new staking of OKB today, with relatively few new trading venues launched.
2. Gas consumption: AI Agent interaction and regular transfers maintain small consumption; No official single-day large-scale burn announcement, total locked at 21 million coins.
3. AI-Agent & RWA Track
1.AI agents: The number of contract deployments is slowly increasing, large-scale high-frequency calls are still in the testing phase, and significant OKB consumption has not yet formed.
2. RWA sector: Tokenized US stocks and outcomes betting markets maintain stable revenue; The five major leagues are in the warm-up phase, with no explosive growth in on-chain trading volume.
Board-level coordination
OKB current price is about $94.40; spot 24-hour turnover is about $32.4 million. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? #标普收盘再创新高, expectations for 8,000 points are heating up Signals of capital flows have been given, but market sentiment remains uncertain. $BTC The repeated tug-of-war around $65,000 is the strongest ETF inflow in nearly 15 weeks—from August 3 to 7, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $865 million, with one institution alone taking in $694 million. $ETH is not to be outdone, with five consecutive weeks of positive inflows, totaling $244 million. Putting these numbers together, the sense of the institution's return is indeed strong. Looking back at the July scenario, ETFs saw consecutive net outflows, with $BTC sliding from above 66,000 all the way to around 62,000, when the market was suffocated by rate hike expectations. August's nonfarm payroll data weakened, with the probability of a rate hike dropping from over 50% to 44%. Macro sentiment turned dovish and funds immediately shifted direction. This round of inflows is not simply gambling on coin prices, but trading the Federal Reserve's next move. A certain institution has been continuously increasing positions near 65,000. This position doesn't seem like a phase top, but more like a position building zone. Institutions are doing allocation, not short-term trading; ETF capital inflows indicate that the purchasing power of major players is recovering. However, whether $BTC and $ETH can reach a new level depends on whether this week's CPI data gives them face. If the 65,000 level can be held, the bulls still have room to keep making moves. Bitcoin #现货ETF资金回流: Can BTC and ETH take over? #财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? In an unnoticed area, $STRC has rebounded from a low of $71 to $95.
Explanation Micro Strategy: The recent coin selling strategy has been successful, with current cash reserves of $4 billion, enough to cover more than 24 months of preferred stock dividends and debt interest.
In other words, the risk of MicroStrategy's collapse has been temporarily resolved, and STRC is about to return to its peg. So, will it be possible to buy $BTC in the future?
Keep playing music and keep dancing! ~#伊拉克原油出口暴跌75%! The suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has become a major blow to the supply side
As OPEC's second-largest oil producer, Iraq exported 3.4 million barrels of crude oil daily through Hormuz before the war, with oil revenues supporting 88% of the national treasury. After the blockade, oil tanker traffic was nearly paralyzed, and exports in May and June were only one-third of the pre-war monthly total. Although Iraq is negotiating temporary shipping plans with Iran and Oman, short-term implementation remains a distant prospect.
Short-term supply gaps combined with resonant risk aversion sentiment led WTI (CL) and Brent (BZ) to strengthen in line with the trend, with intraday gains exceeding 1%; Crude oil geopolitical risk premium rose from $8/barrel to $14-15, with market pricing in oil prices pushing up medium- to long-term centers. Safe-haven asset $XAU rose simultaneously, as the energy crisis pushed inflation hedging buying.
The mid-term scenario has reversed: once the navigation agreement is implemented and the strait resumes transportation, geopolitical premiums will be quickly cleared, leading to pullback pressure from CL and BZ. WTI at $66 and Brent at $70 may form a phased double bottom; The wave of safe-haven gold buying is retreating and weakening in tandem.
Long-term risks remain unresolved: diversification of export channels is a distant prospect, idle capacity in the Middle East cannot be quickly exported, oil prices remain strong, and $XAU will continue to benefit from global geopolitical uncertainty.
$CL $BZ $XAU BTC in this round has generally fallen into a box range oscillation rhythm of stock capital game, with the market temporarily reaching a short-term balance between bulls and bears. The overall market is patiently waiting for the US CPI core inflation data to guide the direction. Incremental funds entering from outside continue to dry up, lacking the core driving force to break the range.
The single-day pulse rise of niche altcoins (such as BICO) is essentially a local cluster speculation of stock funds, completely dependent on Bitcoin's market sentiment for survival, with no independent fundamental support; after speculative capital lifted prices earlier, a large amount of profit-taking piled up, creating heavy selling pressure above. Once BTC consolidates and falls back, these types of coins will be the first to quickly give back gains. The tolerance for chasing highs in the short term is extremely low, making it easy to be stuck holding at high positions.
The contract market's ultra-high leverage (100x) amplifies disorderly fluctuations in the market. Even slight price differences can trigger mass liquidations, further restricting BTC from breaking out into a one-sided trend. The short-term market will only repeatedly wash out within the range, and there is no sustained one-sided bullish market.Spot ETF funds flowing back: Can $BTC and $ETH take over?
At last Friday's close, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a weekly net inflow of $850 million—from August 3rd to 7th, there were five consecutive days of net buying, with BlackRock and IBIT alone taking $690 million, accounting for over 80%. What does that number mean? It was only $170 million in July, but in just five trading days in August, it increased fivefold. Ethereum ETFs weren't idle either, attracting $240 million in the same week, with $1.1 billion in real money entering the market in one week combined.
The money is back, but what about the price? In the early hours of August 10, BTC was hovering around $65,000, ETH stuck above $1,900, and $SOL was just over $75. This is the most tangled part of the market right now—ETFs are buying, but coin prices are not rising.
Break it down and you'll understand. The nature of this round of buying is "bottom-holding," not "offensive": from late May to June, institutions withdrew nearly $7 billion. The money returning now feels more like a restorative allocation after falling back to the cost zone, buying restrained and evenly, aiming to prevent the 64,000 level from being broken. So BTC's weekly trend was a back-and-forth between 64,000 and 65,500, neither going up nor down.
The real pressure lies in three areas. First, above 65,000 is the July high of 66,500 to 67,000, which is a real trapped market that won't get through without increased volume; Second, August has historically been Bitcoin's worst month, with the median of August dropping 10% over the past four years, and the seasonal curse still lingers; Third, the Federal Reserve's interest rates are still stuck, US Treasury yields are high, and the dollar index is relatively firm. In this environment, institutions dare to support the bottom, but no one dares to chase the rally.
ETH's situation is slightly better. It held above 1900, and ETF inflows are accelerating. August 6 was the week's peak of 92 million in a single day, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate rose 11% in July. There are indeed signs of capital rotation toward Ethereum. Breaking above 2,000 is a hurdle; only after passing can we talk about "relays"; otherwise, it will be playing a supporting role in BTC's shadow.
To put it plainly, the current market logic is clear: ETF reflow proves institutions haven't left, that's the bottom; But without macro catalysts, that's the top. Next, watch two signals—whether BTC can close at 67,000 with increased volume, and whether ETH can hold above 2,000. If both are established, the relay will truly begin; If one is missing, it's just stalling in a volatile market. #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? In this round of the market, some people are still waiting for a correction, while others are already dreaming of being exchange owners. Have you ever had those moments when you suddenly made yourself laugh while shopping? The recent pace of CORE has made me a bit excited—not because of how fiercely it has risen, but because as I kept buying, a bold thought popped into my mind: if I keep buying like this, will one day I be able to buy the exchange into mine? The first thing to do then is to raise the price to $10, so all the brothers who have endured it together can eat meat. Don't laugh, people without dreams are no different from salted fish. Jokes aside, I want to seriously talk about the changes in capital preferences I've observed. The current market phase is neither a period of chasing broad-based rallies nor a panic buying period, but rather a very delicate state of strategic maneuvering. When Bitcoin holds sideways at high levels and the counterfeit market fights independently, money won't run wildly at times like this; it will only move toward the most certain spots. What attracts me to CORE is that its narrative is not some superficial AI concept, but a real staking narrative combined with the imaginative space of restaking. In this rally, funds are clearly favoring projects with real return models rather than memes driven solely by sentiment. People are starting to settle accounts, which is a sign that risk appetite is quietly shifting. - First layer of logic: When BTC stabilizes, only altcoins can have a stage to perform. Projects like CORE, which have a staking and locking mechanism, have part of the circulating market locked up, so selling pressure is naturally lower. - Second layer of logic: If the market continues to favor "interest-earning" assets, thenGuys, this weekend I felt quite a few people started getting excited, thinking that $BTC has been rising for over a week and ETF funds are continuously entering the market. Is it time to go to the bottom? Some have even started bringing up the four-year cycle, thinking it will start directly like in the second half of 2023.
But I feel the opposite, and it might be too early to say it's "all the way through."
The logic is simple: on the crypto side, US tech stocks, those chasing highs haven't been scared yet. If market sentiment hasn't completely collapsed, a real bull market won't start easily. Even if capital wants to avoid risk, the current priority is still gold rather than crypto to bear risk.
$BTC has risen for over a week and looks strong, but the price still hasn't broken past the previous month's high. That's the problem. This shows that off-exchange incremental funds are still on the sidelines, waiting for Wednesday's CPI data to provide direction. My plan is clear: no guessing or gambling. If it can hold above the 67,000 mark with increased volume, I'll consider adding positions on the right, setting my stop loss above 70,000, trading space for certainty.
Regarding $OKB, we previously discussed its logic of thorough shakeout and low valuation, but now it seems the project team is indeed making efforts, and the outlook is clearer than before. If there really is a major market in the next round, this low-valuation platform coin is definitely worth a high eye.
Additionally, I've seen news that US stock trading might switch to a 23-hour trading system. This has a significant impact on the crypto world. Once the market size grows and trading hours get longer, a large amount of short-term capital that was already tossing and turning in crypto will be drawn away, and market volatility will be amplified. This will require even higher precision in our trading, and the risk of blindly chasing gains and selling lows will be even greater in the future.
No matter what, the market always gives birth to something new during this period of calm. Until then, hold your hands tight—don't let all your bullets run out in the volatility. I hope we can all keep the right timing, and we'll see when this week's CPI comes out.This chart shows the net realized profit and loss of long-term Bitcoin holders.
Here, long-term holders refer to at least
Investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
Therefore, on average, it excludes those who are being treated
The market is led by the nose with minor fluctuations,
Investors eaten by whales.
Historically, they rarely sell at the sight of a loss.
But when the bear market truly began, even they
It can also fall below the zero line, causing losses and selling assets.
And so, it stayed steadily below negative levels, and finally
Most long-term investors also give up and sell tiredly
And when it leaves the market, extreme negative spikes occur.
Currently, in the 2026 bear market, we have not seen anything like that
The last major drop.
Just for this alone, I anticipate unexpected moments for the public
Bitcoin will plunge again. [Crypto world's 'bear-bottom pancake stall' is open! Why does the true bottom have to be a flat bottom? 】
Still nervous about Bitcoin's ups and downs? Chef reveals the secret: The true bottom of a bear market is never about dropping a needle and exiting; it must be ground into an extremely low-volatility "flat bottom."
1. Crashes are just side dishes; the long-term is the staple. A crash is like a shovel—it can only scoop away the oversized fat of high leverage; But the steadfast long-term holders (LTH) are like sticky 'old wheat crisps'—they can't be scraped at all. Truly bottoming out takes time to grind things down, until turnover hits its freezing point and SOPR index stays below 1, spreading the batter flat in a pan and turning into a calm 'big pancake.'
2. Extreme low volatility is the calm before an explosion. Selling pressure is cleared, buying reaches a fragile balance, volatility is compressed to an extreme level, and a turnaround awaits quietly.
Look at the current market—the batter hasn't even spread out evenly yet! The real bottom is most likely still below $50,000. Before that, chefs have to shake the pot hard (the ultimate bargain)!
Panic breaks when the market is low, and the real bottom is seen at a flat bottom. Don't rush to bottom-fish; patiently wait for the chef to finish flipping the pan and laying out the pan—that's the safest signal to enter!📊 $NEAR contract overload express delivery (August 13)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bears are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but medium- and long-term bulls are starting to fight back, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $8,139.81 $8,130.00 $9.81
4 hours $8,383.95 $8,349.21 $34.74
12 hours: $37,900, $16,700, $21,200
24 hours: $231,300, $202,500, $28,800
From $NEAR liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts; 1-hour bulls were 828 times short, 4-hour ratios about 240, and long sell-offs in short periods were explosive in the short cycle; 12-hour direction completely reversed, short liquidations crushed bulls, with bears 1.27 times bulls, short squeeze initiated; 24-hour bulls overtook again, bulls 7 times longer, and Dog Maker completed a triple squeeze on NEAR: short-selling, squeezing→→ and then selling long—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, medium-cycle short chasers were wiped out in one go, long-term shorts were sold again, and long-term forced liquidations surpassed $230,000. The pace is extremely chaotic; whichever side you chase gets cut. Everyone control their positions to avoid being recalled and cut off.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 13
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is undergoing a systematic clearing to address previously extremely crowded expectations—valuation corrections for deposit stocks, structural inflows of ETF funds, and SpaceX's long-short battles all converge in the same window of time.
💾 Selling pressure on storage stocks eases: Morgan Stanley is "short on long," but disagreements are far from over
On August 7, the memory chip sector fluctuated upward. In the Korean market, SK Hynix rose over 6%, Samsung Electronics rose nearly 4%; The A-share memory chip index once rose more than 3%.
What is even more noteworthy is Shawn Kim's "long bearing" in Morgan Stanley. Kim pointed out that the most dramatic adjustment in memory chips is nearing its end and raised SK Hynix's 2026 EPS forecast by 13%. But the differences are far from resolved. After SanDisk and Western Digital delivered better-than-expected earnings, their stock prices both plunged—SanDisk fell over 7% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped over 11%. As of August 5, SanDisk had risen over 460% year-to-date, and the market had already priced in the positive news, interpreting the dull guidance as a negative signal. Performance is in the past; divergence is in the future.
📈 Spot ETF funds are flowing back: BTC has returned to $65,000
After a sluggish July, Bitcoin showed rebound momentum in early August. Since August 3, spot ETFs have injected about $626 million, with net inflows for five consecutive trading days, and Bitcoin reclaiming $65,000. BlackRock IBIT attracted $479 million between August 3 and 5, accounting for 76% of total inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs were also strong, attracting $244.9 million in a single week, maintaining a positive trend for five consecutive weeks and setting the longest winning streak since 2026. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted a combined inflow of $1.1 billion, marking the strongest performance since April. The continued return of ETFs means traditional institutional funds are reassessing the allocation value of digital assets.
🚀 SpaceX short buying becomes the focus: the classic scenario of a rebound on the lock-up day
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million insider restricted shares, following a frenzy of short bets—as of July 29, short positions reached 219.3 million shares, about 34% of publicly traded shares.
However, the second stampede did not occur. SpaceX rose 6% on the day of the lock-up, then about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. The 14% plunge after Wednesday's earnings report prematurely released the pressure to unlock the lock; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. However, the alarm was not lifted—over 250 million shares were still shorted, and if the stock price continued to rise, short covering could further push the price higher.
💎 Summary
The "unexpected crash" in storage stocks proves valuations have outpaced fundamentals; Continued ETF inflows show institutional funds are re-entering the market; SpaceX's short covering plays out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted." All three markets have cleared expectations in the same time window—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? Early session analysis: A sneak peek at this week's key events
The narrow sideways consolidation of $BTC and $ETH over the past two weeks is essentially waiting for the end of this week.
This week appears to be a post-nonfarm payroll vacuum period, but in reality, three bombs have been planted in the agenda—setting the groundwork on Monday, triggering on Wednesday, and confirming on Thursday.
First: Wednesday CPI, the whole market waits for it to set the direction
Wednesday, August 12, 20:30, US July CPI.
June CPI was 3.5%, the market expects July to drop to 3.4%, and core CPI drops from 2.6% to 2.5%. The nonfarm payroll has already shocked negative 23,000, and the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 44%. If CPI continues to fall, rate hike expectations could be completely dissolved—for BTC and ETH, this is the biggest macro tailwind in two months. The repeatedly friction-ridden wall of 65,000 may be pushed over by the catalyst of cooling inflation. If CPI unexpectedly rebounds and rate hikes return, the bullish structure accumulated after nonfarms will be instantly suppressed.
Second: A series of financial reports related to AI infrastructure
The main focus of this week's US stock earnings reports is the entire AI infrastructure chain. Lumentum (optical modules), CoreWeave (computing power leasing), AMD (servers), Cisco (networking), Applied Materials, and Coherent (semiconductor equipment)—several nights of launch events resonated in sync across the computing power industry chain.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen 80% so far this year, but has pulled back 15% from its June high. These earnings reports will directly answer the market's biggest question: Can AI capital spending be sustained? If the answer is no, the valuations of US tech stocks anchored by AI narratives will broadly loosen—and the rally of crypto as a risk asset will be interrupted. The recent slight correction in crypto has closely synchronized with the rebound in US stocks, especially the Nasdaq. If AI earnings crash, crypto can't hold on either.
Third: PPI and retail, the final confirmation of the inflation chain
Thursday at 20:30, US July PPI—CPI supplementary verification. If both PPI and CPI decline, the chain of cooling inflation will be complete, and the scenario of rate hike expectations collapsing will shift from "possible" to "highly likely."
Friday at 20:30, "terrifying data" retail sales. After negative nonfarm payroll growth, the market is most worried about a consumption crash. If retail also collapses, the logic will shift from "rate cut positives" to "recession fears"—a scenario of rising first then falling has appeared in every pessimistic data release over the past two months. On the same day, Michigan consumer confidence and one-year inflation expectations will add the final piece of the puzzle.
And these are also within sight
On Monday, the Bank of Japan released a summary of its July meeting, which may signal the timing of the next rate hike—the yen's direction will indirectly affect BTC through the chain of US Treasury yields. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on interest rates; on Wednesday, OPEC and IEA monthly reports will affect oil prices→ inflation→ rate hike expectations. Thursday will be the minutes of the ECB Governing Council meeting, and Friday will have a 10-year US Treasury auction.
Crypto is not a bystander this week. Over the past two weeks, BTC has been narrowly consolidating between 62,800 and 65,358, and ETH has repeatedly confirmed near 1,900, all waiting for this week's CPI to give its final direction. Until 8:30 PM Wednesday night, all sideways were held back.
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes 市场正在撕裂。$BTC与$BTC在65000美元一线反复拉锯，$ETH停在1924美元附近，涨幅都不到0.2%，但部分山寨币却拒绝跟随走弱。$SOL单日上涨1.38%至77美元，明显跑赢大盘，这是资金愿意承担风险的直接信号。 真正的看点在ETF数据。过去一周$BTC和$ETH的ETF合计净流入约11亿美元，创下今年四月以来最强单周纪录，但价格却没有出现对应的爆发。这说明大资金确实在回流，只是还在等右侧确认，没有急着拉升。 当前$BTC仍是市场总开关，而$ETH的强弱则决定山寨币能否迎来真正的补涨行情。如果$ETH开始持续跑赢$BTC，资金会迅速从主流外溢，山寨季的窗口才会真正打开。我关注的方向集中在$SOL、$XRP、$SUI这些已经展现相对强势的品种，早期轮动的$MEME、$METIS同样值得盯盘。 我不会去追眼前那些冒头的阳线。这套组合信号需要按顺序验证：$BTC止跌企稳，$ETH接过领涨位置，$BTC市占率拐头回落，山寨成交量同步放大。四个条件没凑齐之前，山寨行情只能当作反弹对待，而不是趋势反转。现在的位置，等待比进场更舒服。 山寨季 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力特朗普传媒退出加密市场，终止与Crypto.com的CRO金库储备合作，此前由政商关联驱动的"金库热潮"明显降温。受此消息影响，CRO今日下跌3.6%，周内跌幅达5.4%。特朗普主题代币TRUMP与WLFI已自历史高位回撤84%，政治meme币的买入情绪显著减弱，市场对政治关联加密资产的信心正加速流失。 与此同时，美国财政部宣布扩大对伊朗的制裁范围，重点指向两家与USDT流动性相关的交易所。短期内稳定币流动性风险上升，但资金正同步流向更具机构合规属性的避险资产，包括代币化黄金XAUT、PAXG以及隐私币ZEC。在传统避险逻辑发生重构的背景下，这些资产正承接部分防御性配置需求。 展望后市，政治meme币预计持续承压，代币化黄金与隐私赛道可能继续吸纳避险资金。比特币短期内缺乏独立上行动能，难以走出脱离宏观环境的单边行情。特朗普传媒的撤退既可被视为加密市场的一则系统性利空信号，也可能只是政治资本泡沫的精准破裂。最终方向，取决于增量资金的实际选择。 $CRO $TRUMP $WLFI $XAUT $ZEC $BTC #Crypto$BTC 3. Strategy持仓
842,138枚BTC也扛不住浮亏？Strategy现在到底是在防守还是调仓？
Strategy目前持有约842,138枚比特币，平均成本约为每枚7.56万美元，账面浮亏约90亿美元。
这个数字很容易让人产生两个极端判断：有人认为机构已经被套住，也有人认为这只是长期配置过程中的正常波动。
但更值得注意的是，Strategy近期多次披露出售比特币，暂时没有披露新的买入动作。持仓规模很大，账面浮亏也很大，公司的现金储备和融资能力自然会受到市场更多关注。
这并不一定代表它改变了长期看法，也可能是现金管理、资本结构调整，或者是在等待更好的融资和买入窗口。
真正需要观察的不是一句“Doing Business”，而是后续三个信号：
第一，持仓是否继续增加；
第二，是否出现更多出售行为；
第三，股价和融资成本是否开始影响它的比特币策略。
机构重仓不代表行情只涨不跌，长期信仰也不等于没有资金压力。
你怎么看这次持仓变化？
A：正常现金管理
B：开始降低风险
C：等待更好的买入位置$ETH $BTC $BTC #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? 2. Federal Reserve interest rates
The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September rose to 63%. Is this really good news for BTC?
The market has begun to re-trade the expectation that "the Fed will not raise interest rates."
Current market forecasts show about a 63% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, and CME about 55.6% probability. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls in July fell by 23,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%.
On the surface, this seems positive for risk assets: easing expectations of rate hikes, pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields may ease, and BTC also has opportunities for liquidity support.
But the problem is that a weakening nonfarm payroll could also mean the economy is cooling down.
So now the market faces a contradiction: interest rates no longer rising is good news, but weakening employment increases recession fears. For Bitcoin, the truly ideal environment is not a sudden economic slowdown, but a decline in inflation, resilient employment, and gradual improvement in liquidity.
In the short term, don't focus solely on the phrase "whether to raise interest rates," but rather on how the market interprets upcoming inflation data.
What do you think is the most likely scenario in September?
A: Maintain the interest rate unchanged
B: Unexpected interest rate hikes
C: Signal a rate cut is starting to be sent📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (August 13)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bears are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but medium- and long-term bulls are starting to fight back, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $18.34 $18.34 $0
4 hours $671.87 $671.87 $0
12 hours: $43,000, $10,500, $32,500
24 hours: $287,500, $220,200, $67,300
From $SUI liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts, with zero shorts, and the long sell-off trend in the short cycle was purely one-sided; The 12-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing the bulls, with bears three times the number of bulls, leading to a full-scale short squeeze; The 24-hour bulls overtook again, with the bulls 3.3 times the bears. Dog Zhuang →→completed a triple choke-down on SUI: short-term longs were targeted, medium-cycle short chases were wiped out, long-term sell-offs were sold again, and cumulative liquidations exceeded $280,000. The pace is extremely chaotic; wherever you chase, you get cut. Everyone controls their positions to avoid being reclaimed.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 13
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is undergoing a systematic clearing to address previously extremely crowded expectations—valuation corrections for deposit stocks, structural inflows of ETF funds, and SpaceX's long-short battles all converge in the same window of time.
💾 Selling pressure on storage stocks eases: Morgan Stanley is "short on long," but disagreements are far from over
On August 7, the memory chip sector fluctuated upward. In the Korean market, SK Hynix rose over 6%, Samsung Electronics rose nearly 4%; The A-share memory chip index once rose more than 3%.
What is even more noteworthy is Shawn Kim's "long bearing" in Morgan Stanley. Kim pointed out that the most dramatic adjustment in memory chips is nearing its end and raised SK Hynix's 2026 EPS forecast by 13%. But the differences are far from resolved. After SanDisk and Western Digital delivered better-than-expected earnings, their stock prices both plunged—SanDisk fell over 7% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped over 11%. As of August 5, SanDisk had risen over 460% year-to-date, and the market had already priced in the positive news, interpreting the dull guidance as a negative signal. Performance is in the past; divergence is in the future.
📈 Spot ETF funds are flowing back: BTC has returned to $65,000
After a sluggish July, Bitcoin showed rebound momentum in early August. Since August 3, spot ETFs have injected about $626 million, with net inflows for five consecutive trading days, and Bitcoin reclaiming $65,000. BlackRock IBIT attracted $479 million between August 3 and 5, accounting for 76% of total inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs were also strong, attracting $244.9 million in a single week, maintaining a positive trend for five consecutive weeks and setting the longest winning streak since 2026. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted a combined inflow of $1.1 billion, marking the strongest performance since April. The continued return of ETFs means traditional institutional funds are reassessing the allocation value of digital assets.
🚀 SpaceX short buying becomes the focus: the classic scenario of a rebound on the lock-up day
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million insider restricted shares, following a frenzy of short bets—as of July 29, short positions reached 219.3 million shares, about 34% of publicly traded shares.
However, the second stampede did not occur. SpaceX rose 6% on the day of the lock-up, then about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. The 14% plunge after Wednesday's earnings report prematurely released the pressure to unlock the lock; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. However, the alarm was not lifted—over 250 million shares were still shorted, and if the stock price continued to rise, short covering could further push the price higher.
💎 Summary
The "unexpected crash" in storage stocks proves valuations have outpaced fundamentals; Continued ETF inflows show institutional funds are re-entering the market; SpaceX's short covering plays out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted." All three markets have cleared expectations in the same time window—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? $BTC $ETH 稳定币资金又开始往主链回流了！
ETH过去7天净增3.04亿美元。
BTC过去7天净增8.5亿美元
XRPL的增速反而最炸！
多条公链同时出现资金补充。
链上流动性正在重新找方向！
过去一周，Ethereum 稳定币规模增加3.04亿美元，Tron增加1.55亿美元，BSC增加9100万美元，XRPL增加9000万美元，Avalanche增加8700万美元。其中XRPL周增幅达到10.3%，Avalanche也增长5.6%，资金增速明显跑在前面。
稳定币就是链上最直接的“弹药库”。总量持续回升，说明场内可用资金正在增加；接下来谁能把这些稳定币真正转化成交易量、DeFi活跃度和资产买盘，谁就更容易吃到下一轮资金轮动。
钱已经开始搬家。
下一步，就看哪条链先把弹药点着SpaceX's rally shouldn't be interpreted as positive news; it's purely a short-seller "self-rescue."
The lifting of the ban should have caused a sell-off, but the stock price plunged ahead of time, and the bears saw there was no room to fall and panicked. Plus, the short selling ratio was too high (36% of the circulating market), so if they wanted to exit, they had to buy back the stocks. Once they did, they forced short selling, causing the price to soar instantly.
But this is just "a must-buy," not "buy only because you're optimistic." Don't forget, this is only the first wave of the nine-stage unlock; there are still huge amounts of chips waiting to be released.
In short: a rebound from a squeeze doesn't mean a fundamentals reversal. After running out of ammunition, you still have to look at real supply. Don't get carried away.
#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward?
$BTC $ETH $SPCX SpaceX has been rushing these past two days—don't let people hype you into 'Musk is up again' or 'fundamentals reversal.' Nonsense. This is purely because short sellers are choked by their own positions, forced to buy back and close their positions, and have nothing to do with whether the company makes money or whether Starship can recover it.
Let's break down the play and see it clearly.
On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares of internal restricted shares was unlocked, doubling the circulating shares from 639 million shares to 1.55 billion shares—a script that should have been a flood of selling pressure. But before the unlock, the stock dropped from 225 to 104, and the earnings report dropped 14% in a single day, already pricing in the "unlocking panic." On the day the lock-up was lifted, the actual selling wasn't as fierce as expected. Once the market stabilized, the bears were the most restless—before the lock-up, empty positions once accounted for 36% of the circulating share, with a floating profit of $9 billion. Now, instead of falling, the price has risen. With the margin warning triggered, they had no choice but to return and sweep the stock.
This buy pushed the price up again, with more short stop-losses—a typical short squeeze positive feedback. But note: this buying is "forced to buy," not "want to buy." Once the remaining 250 million shares are mostly replenished, the passive fuel runs out, and the stock price immediately returns to normal supply and demand battles.
More importantly, unlocking is not done in a day. SpaceX is doing a nine-phase staggered release; August was just the first shot, followed by 7% batches in late August, September, and October, another 28% release after the third-quarter report in November, and the 180-day lock-in period in December with several times the number of shares in circulation. Musk himself won't move until June 2027 for 6.4 billion shares. The supply chain is still hanging overhead; it's too early to say "selling pressure has been absorbed." Any subsequent new unlocking cycle with weakened sentiment could trigger another supply shock.
So the essence of this rebound can be summed up in one sentence: crowded short trades have failed, the exit channel is too narrow, causing the pullback to fill in more urgently than anyone. It can trigger a big bullish candlestick through position pressure when fundamentals haven't improved at all; But it can also be pushed back at any time due to the next wave of supply unlocks or AI capital spending being questioned, pushing the price down.
When looking at SpaceX, don't just look at whether it's rising—first look at 'who's buying'—whether it's passive short buying or long-term funds building positions with real money. The former gives flexibility, the latter gives trend. Mistaking a short squeeze rebound as a bull market signal is a classic case of misreading trading structure as industry judgment.
(Purely talking about trading structure, not investment advice—don't criticize if you lose)
$SPCX $BTC $ETH #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
In one week, $1.1 billion was poured into spot ETFs for BTC and ETH, but look at the market—stagnant water, barely making a splash. BTC is still stalling around 65,000, while ETH is hovering above 1900, playing dead. This really messes with the mindset: money is coming in, so why does the price seem like it didn't see it?
Actually, this isn't strange at all. If we break this curtain, we'll understand: money goes into the custodian bank, but that doesn't mean money goes into the market.
The current script goes like this:
💰 Money is coming in, but it's all "smart money." Institutions are shrewd, buying up ETFs while opening short positions in the derivatives market for hedges. This is called "spot trading and futures locking in prices." You might think they're pumping the market, but they're actually doing risk-free arbitrage.
📉 Selling pressure hasn't been lifted; the upper side is full of trapped positions. The 65,000 to 70,000 yuan range is a place of heartbreak for countless people. Without some major positive news, who would want to help others break even?
🎯 Capital has become picky and no longer buys randomly. In the past, whenever there was money, it would fly around; now it only focuses on core assets, with scraps that don't even matter at all.
That's why altcoins now seem somewhat "interesting"—because capital is holding back big moves.
👑 BTC is now the anchor of the tide. As long as it doesn't crash, everyone will be bolder, but it's hard for BTC to surge wildly like before.
🏛️ ETH is the real barometer. Only when the ETH/BTC exchange rate starts to rise does it show that funds see ETH as cheap and are willing to gamble on elasticity, and only then will the altcoin season truly open a crack.
⚡ SOL is my thermometer. If this thing hardens, it means the market's risk appetite has completely returned; If it wilts, don't even bother with other knockoffs.
My "rotation radar" has been scanning for XRP, HYPE, SUI, TAO, ONDO, AAVE, and even early varieties like MEME and METIS—I keep an eye on them in the selection section. But we need to stay clear:
ETF inflows ≠ the knockoff season automatically begins.
Right now, I have a 'four-step confirmation method' in my mind—none of which can be missing:
1. BTC is holding steady (barely acceptable now);
2. ETH strengthens (still struggling);
3. BTC's dominance is declining (BTC.D is still holding at a high level, no chance);
4. Total counterfeit trading volume has increased (TOTAL3 has not yet made any moves).
Only when all four of these traffic lights are green will the market shift from the current "picky and picky" to "chickens and dogs rising to heaven." Before that, anyone chasing the newly emerging knockoff will most likely be sending some warmth to the old villagers inside.
My strategy is simple: first check if the water (liquidity) is in, then check if the story (narrative) sounds good, and finally wait for the candlestick (price) to confirm. Don't make an eagle until you see the rabbit. These days, surviving is more important than making quick money.
What do you think, when this rotation really happens, which unlucky (strikethrough) lucky player will rise the most? Will it be veterans like SOL, or new faces like SUI and $TAO? Let's talk in the comments 👇
(Just chatting, not investment advice. If you lost, don't come to me; if you made something, don't thank me.) ）
$BTC $ETH $SOL In one week, $1.1 billion in real money surged into BTC + ETH spot ETFs (about $853 million on BTC, about $245 million on ETH, IBIT alone took 80%+), but BTC was still grinding at $64,500–$65,000, ETH held firmly at the 1900 level, refusing to budge—the market was so quiet it seemed nothing had happened.
This may seem counterintuitive, but it's actually quite reasonable: money entering the custodian doesn't mean it's entering the market.
Three realities break down the equation of "inflow = surge":
• ETF inflows are eaten up by hedge traders: Many institutions are doing "spot ETF long positions + derivatives short positions" together, outwardly net subscriptions but closing equivalent positions in the futures market, so prices naturally remain unchanged.
• Selling pressure above hasn't been lifted: Above 65,000, there are profit-taking, miner selling, and arbitrage unwinding orders. Relying solely on ETF inflows can't break through.
• Macro market has not caught fire: Nonfarm rolls are unexpected, the CLARITY Act is pushed to September, and rate cut expectations are repeatedly stalled. Institutions are willing to "allocate positions" but are reluctant to "pull the market."
So the current situation isn't the start of a bull market, but liquidity quietly changing hands at the bottom—welding 62,000–64,000 into institutional cost zones, but without catalysts, don't expect to fly away.
💡 This perfectly echoes the earlier logic of storage stocks: when money comes≠ price reacts immediately, separated by a filter of "whether expectations are already filled."
It's even clearer when viewed within the framework of counterfeit rotation. The real counterfeit season isn't "ETF ignites automatically when there's money"; it's about following this sequence:
BTC holding flat without breaking → ETH/BTC exchange rate rises → BTC dominance rate (BTC.D) turns downward → Counterfeit total trading volume (TOTAL3) expands.
Four lights on simultaneously is the switch from "selective layout" to "active rotation"; If only one or two lights are on, it's mutual cutting of existing stock.
Where is the current progress bar?
• BTC: Sideways but no direction ✅, half bright
• ETH/BTC: Recovery but no trend breakout ⚠️ in a flash
• BTC. D: Still in the high range of the year, no downturn ❌ or brightening
• Counterfeit volume: Mainly declining on low volume, with only a few narrative moments ❌ not being clear
In other words, we haven't even officially entered the stage of "large-cap knockoffs taking over," let alone the small and mid-cap frenzy. The SOL you listed is high-beta thermometers, XRP/HYPE/SUI$TAO/ These are candidates in rotational radar, but when the radar sounds ≠ planes take off, you have to wait for ETH to break the door open.
In terms of operation, it's the same as the previous storage stocks: first look at liquidity, then the narrative, and finally wait for price confirmation. The greatest value in weekly net inflows for ETFs is telling you that "institutions are laying out their positions," not "tomorrow's rally." Before BTC. D hasn't turned down, and ETH/BTC hasn't firmly taken hold, chasing the newly emerging knockoffs = catching the knife of mutual cutting of existing stocks.
If you really ask who is the most profitable when rotation arrives—the historical template always has "ETH first→ SOL that takes big bites on elasticity with high beta →, then mid-market with income, Tobin tax, and real TVL (like SUI, TAO, ONDO, AAVE)." MEMES are the last wave of emotional amplifiers, not the first one. But this depends on all four lights shining simultaneously, so don't rush now.
$BTC $ETH
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
This round of sharp decline in storage stocks is, frankly, "expectations are too high, and the stock price tripped itself," not that the industry is failing.
The most painful example is SanDisk (SNDK). The newly released financial report is simply blinding: quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, and data center revenue was $2.98 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter (+103%). Such performance would be a top student anywhere, yet once the financial report came out, the stock price actually came under pressure. Why? Because the market previously overloaded all the "high growth over the next three years" into stock prices. Now, even if you score 99, if you don't reach 100, funds feel "below expectations" and turn away.
But if you look at the industry side, it's extremely tense. SK Hynix openly claims customer demand far exceeds their supply capacity, having signed long-term contracts with about 10 core customers to lock capacity and even begin mass shipments of next-generation HBM4 in Q2. What does this mean? The demand for AI computing power for high-end storage simply cannot be stopped; it's not that demand has disappeared, but that production capacity is truly lagging behind.
Moreover, the AI infrastructure strategy is no longer limited to graphics cards and memory. The Mywell (MRVL) line is becoming increasingly important: latest quarter revenue was $2.42 billion (+28% year-on-year), data centers alone took $1.83 billion, accounting for 76%, and next quarter's guidance is $2.7 billion, with growth expected to reach 35%. Especially 800G/1.6T optical interconnects, switching chips, and custom XPUs—as AI clusters grow larger, the bottleneck in data handling becomes increasingly apparent, and interconnection is becoming another main thread of money consumption.
So the current landscape is very clear:
• HBM watches SK Hynix (capacity locked down, supply shortages)
• AI storage: Look at SNDK (cycle elasticity, explosive performance)
• Computing power: NVDA (core base)
• AI interconnection Sees MRVL (Optical Module + Switch Chip Scaling)
Short-term stock price fluctuations and even continued valuation cuts are normal. As long as giants' capital spending on AI doesn't turn downward, the "storage + interconnect" industry trend is far from over.
The most important thing now is: Is the stock price rising too fast and making your mouth burn, or is the industry really caught a chill? These are two completely different things. At present, it's clearly the former—the industry is still hot, but the stock price needs to cool down first.
$SNDK $NVDA $MRVL This experiment, codenamed BIP-110, was written off from the very first brick that was laid askew.
On August 9, when the block height stopped at 961,632, the "forced signal" that Luke Dashjr and others had been waiting for was triggered as scheduled. Supporters excitedly announced the start of the fork, trying to use UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) as a surgical knife to cut off the "surplus creatures" attached to Bitcoin—Ordinals, BRC-20, and Runes.
However, reality dealt a harsh slap to idealists. The forked chain went live in just half a day, producing only two isolated blocks, widening the gap with the main chain by more than 80 blocks. 99.85% of the computing power choices were ignored, and out of 100,000 nodes across the network, less than 15% responded. This was not a fork; it was clearly a large-scale "online cold violence."
Computing power is royal power, and the market is judgment.
BIP-110's embarrassment isn't about its technical flaws, but about trying to resolve cultural differences through code logic. The lineup of opponents is staggering: Adam Back from Blockstream, industry veteran Jameson Lopp, and Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy. Saylor precisely labels it as a "Bitcoin medical proposal"—meaning that drugs prescribed to cure diseases are more toxic than the disease itself. Lopp even bet on the market with 1 BTC on the market to bet on failure, and to this day, no one dares to take over.
Why is no one taking it? Because the economic model of forked chains is fundamentally rotten. Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism is built on sufficient hash power. When 99% of miners on the entire network withdraw, block production time will extend from 10 minutes to several hours or even days. No liquidity, no exchange listings, no institutional custody (ETF issuers like BlackRock have long clearly stated they do not support forked coins), and tokens on this chain have no second mathematical expected value except zero.
The deeper game lies in the hinge of the "censorship" door. BIP-110, under the guise of "only one year," attempts to set a precedent for filtering specific transactions. But today, you can block data written for "boycotting inscriptions," and tomorrow others can ban specific addresses for "compliance." Once this "Orwellian" censorship loophole is torn open, Bitcoin's absolute neutrality and anti-censorship will collapse instantly. The market clearly understands this and votes with its feet to defend Bitcoin's "permissionless" spirit.
This also reflects the governance deadlock in the Bitcoin community over the past four years. Since the Taproot upgrade, the soul-searching question of "what exactly is Bitcoin" has torn the community apart: on one side are monetary fundamentalists who insist on the "digital gold" standard, believing block space is sacred and inviolable and can only be used for transfers; on the other side are pragmatists who embrace "digital oil," believing that as long as gas fees are paid, on-chain space becomes a public toilet that anyone can use.
The crushing defeat of BIP-110 marked a phased victory for pragmatists, but it also left scars that are hard to heal. The division within the Bitcoin community has shifted from undercurrents to open confrontation.
For ordinary holders, the best strategy is to just stand by and watch. Your BTC is safe on the mainnet, just remind the exchange to prepare for replay attacks. As for that "ghost chain" maintained by a few? Don't touch it, don't even look at it—wasting time on it is disrespectful to hashrate.
$BTC
#比特币BIP-110 proposal cools off, forked chains lag behind mainnet 📊 $KAITO contract overload express delivery (August 13)
According to liquidation data, bulls and bears are locked in fierce tug-of-war, with dog dealers buying back and selling...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $2,743.99 $795.92 $1,948.07
4 hours: $44,000, $32,400, $11,500
12 hours: $209,800 $139,800 $70,000
24 hours: $594,300, $352,300, $242,000
From $KAITO's liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with shorts outnumbering the bulls by 2.4 times, marking a short squeeze at the start; at 4 hours, the direction reversed, with long liquidations overtaking bears, with bulls at 2.8 times the shorts, leading to a full-blown long selling; the 12-hour bullish advantage continued to expand, about 2 times, with long sells running through the short to medium cycle; 24-hour long liquidations surged to $352,300, but the ratio dropped to 1.45 times, with long-term bear resistance surging sharply—short liquidations surged from $1,948 in one hour to $242,000. On KAITO, Gouzhuang made a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling, but the long-term tug-of-war intensified, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $590,000, leaving uncertainty about the direction choice. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being forced to liquidate.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 13
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is undergoing a systematic clearing to address previously extremely crowded expectations—valuation corrections for deposit stocks, structural inflows of ETF funds, and SpaceX's long-short battles all converge in the same window of time.
💾 Selling pressure on storage stocks eases: Morgan Stanley is "short on long," but disagreements are far from over
On August 7, the memory chip sector fluctuated upward. In the Korean market, SK Hynix rose over 6%, Samsung Electronics rose nearly 4%; The A-share memory chip index once rose more than 3%.
What is even more noteworthy is Shawn Kim's "long bearing" in Morgan Stanley. Kim pointed out that the most dramatic adjustment in memory chips is nearing its end and raised SK Hynix's 2026 EPS forecast by 13%. But the differences are far from resolved. After SanDisk and Western Digital delivered better-than-expected earnings, their stock prices both plunged—SanDisk fell over 7% in after-hours trading, and Western Digital dropped over 11%. As of August 5, SanDisk had risen over 460% year-to-date, and the market had already priced in the positive news, interpreting the dull guidance as a negative signal. Performance is in the past; divergence is in the future.
📈 Spot ETF funds are flowing back: BTC has returned to $65,000
After a sluggish July, Bitcoin showed rebound momentum in early August. Since August 3, spot ETFs have injected about $626 million, with net inflows for five consecutive trading days, and Bitcoin reclaiming $65,000. BlackRock IBIT attracted $479 million between August 3 and 5, accounting for 76% of total inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs were also strong, attracting $244.9 million in a single week, maintaining a positive trend for five consecutive weeks and setting the longest winning streak since 2026. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted a combined inflow of $1.1 billion, marking the strongest performance since April. The continued return of ETFs means traditional institutional funds are reassessing the allocation value of digital assets.
🚀 SpaceX short buying becomes the focus: the classic scenario of a rebound on the lock-up day
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million insider restricted shares, following a frenzy of short bets—as of July 29, short positions reached 219.3 million shares, about 34% of publicly traded shares.
However, the second stampede did not occur. SpaceX rose 6% on the day of the lock-up, then about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. The 14% plunge after Wednesday's earnings report prematurely released the pressure to unlock the lock; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. However, the alarm was not lifted—over 250 million shares were still shorted, and if the stock price continued to rise, short covering could further push the price higher.
💎 Summary
The "unexpected crash" in storage stocks proves valuations have outpaced fundamentals; Continued ETF inflows show institutional funds are re-entering the market; SpaceX's short covering plays out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted." All three markets have cleared expectations in the same time window—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? On the surface, this round of plunge in storage stocks is a capital flight after earnings are realized, but in essence, it is an extreme "diminishing of expected marginal utility."
Many people stared at $SNDK's explosive financial report (revenue of 8.97 billion, year-on-year +372%), puzzled: why did such good performance still fall? In fact, the market has never been trading about "past goodness," but about "better futures." When the stock price exhausts the expected capacity expansion for the next three years within half a year, even if you deliver a "triple year-on-year growth" report, as long as there is no guidance of "doubling again," it is below expectations. This is not killing fundamentals; the market is paying interest on previous greed.
Even more interesting are signals on the supply side. SK Hynix not only refrained from cutting orders, but instead locked long-term contracts with 10 core customers for five years, with HBM4 yields catching up to mature products. Note that the essence of long-term contracts is "panic buying." Customers are willing to pay deposits and lock in production capacity for the next five years, which proves they understand better than we do: AI's computing hunger is unsolvable and far from a turning point. This industry-level "certainty anxiety" forms a stark contrast with the "emotional fluctuations" of the secondary market.
Moreover, the market's focus is shifting from the dominant GPU and memory to the implicit "connection layer." The rise of $MRVL (data center revenue accounts for 76%, growth rate 35%) reveals a deeper industry truth: as AI clusters move from thousands of cards to tens of thousands or even 100,000 cards, the bottleneck is no longer single-point computing power, but the efficiency of data transfer. 800G/1.6T optical interconnects are essentially repairing the blood vessels of the AI giant. This is not just a supplementary price gain logic, but also a second-order shift of AI infrastructure from "stacking hardware" to "competing on connectivity."
So, the current landscape is very clear:
For HBM, watch SK hynix (capacity locked); for AI storage, look at SNDK (cycle flexibility); for computing power, look at NVDA (core foundation); and for AI interconnect, look at MRVL (second-order growth).
The current adjustment is the stock price waiting for further confirmation of fundamentals, not disproving the fundamentals. What we need to be wary of is not the cyclical fluctuations in AI capital expenditure, but the misinterpretation of "overheated stock prices" as "industry weakness." As long as the giants' Capex (capital expenditure) does not turn downward, every deep squat now is a way to build strength for the next breakthrough.
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? The most obvious signal last week was a sharp rise in the Nasdaq, a rebound in semiconductors overall, but storage just couldn't keep up.
Funds have long been dissatisfied with just storing well.
There are three confirmation signals for next week
First, CoreWeave and SMCI confirmed that demand for AI servers remains strong
Second, AMAT confirmed that capital expenditures on HBM and high-end DRAM remain strong, but traditional storage has not expanded out of control
Third, and most importantly, when the market rises, MU, Hynix, and SanDisk $SNDK follow suit
Especially the third point.
A sign that a sector is truly strengthening is when the market rises and it runs back over the market.
Looking closely, I still put Micron ahead of SanDisk.
Micron directly benefits from HBM, high-end DRAM, and AI servers.
SanDisk still has significant flexibility in NAND and enterprise-grade SSDs, but it is more sensitive to price cycles and market expectations, so it surges most when the market is good, and usually most aggressively when risks are released.
It's easy to surge or flash crashes.
Therefore, next week I will focus on a very simple thing: if the CPI is positive and the Nasdaq rises, and MU and SKHY start to clearly outperform the market, and SNDK stops falling and follows suit, then this round of storage adjustments may be nearing its end.
Conversely, if CPI is strong and AI earnings reports are also strong, the market continues to hit new highs, but storage remains stagnant.
Then be careful.
Because at that time, the market really started revaluating storage cycles.
To sum up
Next week, the market will look at CPI
AI looks at CoreWeave, SMCI, and Cisco
For storage, look at AMAT
But what really matters is whether these stocks can continue to rise after these positive developments emerge
Data is always only half the story
How the price responds is the other half
$BTC $ETH $SPCX This wave of storage stocks has left them bruised and bruised. If you ask me, it's really not that the industry is failing; it's the market itself that has pushed its appetite too high and then choked on its own expectations.
Take SanDisk ($SNDK) as an example for the most direct example. The results just delivered are shocking—quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, more than 3.7 times year-over-year; Data center revenue jumped to $2.98 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter (+103%). Isn't that explosive anywhere? But as soon as the earnings came out, the stock price was smashed, dropping over 8% in after-hours trading, and the next day it turned red. Why? Because the median revenue guidance for next quarter was $10.55 billion, which didn't reach Wall Street's $11.16 billion mouth. To put it bluntly, not a single hair on AI demand has diminished. Previously, stock prices had already finished the drama of "next year, the year after, and the year after," and now, even a little breather means capital isn't stimulating enough.
Looking at the supply chain, the tight situation hasn't changed at all. SK hynix was blunt during the call: Customers want more goods than we can produce. They signed about 5-year long-term supply agreements with about 10 core manufacturers, and HBM4 was already being shipped in batches in the second quarter, with yield rates nearly matching the previous generation of mature HBM3E. Long-term contracts also include advance payments and deposits; customers are worried about not buying, not buying too much. Is this called fundamental collapse? This is called order backlogs for the year after next.
As for AI infrastructure, don't just focus on GPUs and memory. Mywell ($MRVL) is increasingly resembling a "hidden main thread"—latest quarter revenue was 2.42 billion, up +28% year-on-year; data centers consumed 1.83 billion, accounting for 76%; next quarter's guidance is 2.7 billion, aiming for +35% year-on-year. 800G optical modules are booming, with 1.6T growing in the horizontal expansion of AI clusters. With chip swaps and custom XPUs, the larger AI machines get, the less their internal "blood vessels" are, and interconnection becomes another money-draining route.
So if you really want to lay out the map:
• High-end HBM targets SK Hynix
• AI storage on SanDisk SNDK
• Raw hash power is still NVIDIA NVDA
• Optical interconnect and switching layers monitor Mywell MRVL
In the short term, stock prices can shake and drop valuations as much as they want, let them be. As long as a few cloud and chip companies don't turn down their AI capital expenditures, the backbone of the "storage + interconnect" industry will still stand.
The most important thing to clarify now: Is it the stock price that is hot to the eye, or is the industry really taking a cold? These two are completely different—the former can survive by switching trades after a drop, while the latter is the real signal to exit. At present, it is clearly the former.
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? Many investors have already started to believe BTC has bottomed out this time, and based on a four-year cycle, they expect it to start like in the second half of 2023. But I have a different view: as long as tokens in crypto and US stocks haven't scared people down, the bull market won't truly start. Even if you want to hedge safe, the priority is gold, not BTC.
BTC has been bullish for over a week, with ETF funds entering continuously, yet the price hasn't even broken past last month's high—this in itself speaks volumes. It's possible that everyone is waiting for this week's CPI data; before the data is released, no one dares to place heavy bets. My strategy is clear: add more after breaking through 67,000, and set your stop-loss at 70,000. Don't act until there's a valid breakout.
$OKB is indeed worth taking a high profile. The operational and operational capabilities of the OKX project team are visible to the naked eye, with ecosystem development, contract liquidity, and product iteration all on point. Moreover, OKB's deflationary model and buyback and burn mechanism provide the strongest price support during a bear market. If the next major market rally occurs, OKB is very likely to outperform most platform coins and even mainstream coins to become the sector leader. However, platform tokens are characterized by following the bull market and resisting declines in bear markets, but the overall market enthusiasm is needed—entering now is still on the left side, and adding positions once the trend is confirmed is more reliable.
$SNDK A macro change to face: U.S. stock trading is being proposed for a 23-hour trading system. If this system is truly implemented, it will attract a large amount of crypto capital—U.S. stocks already have better liquidity, transparency, and compliance than the crypto market, and if trading hours are extended, the effect of capital diversion will become even more pronounced. At the same time, after extending U.S. trading hours, the price discovery mechanism will become more continuous, and the probability of flash crashes and spike insertion may increase, meaning greater intraday volatility for investors. In the long run, this puts pressure on the crypto market, but it also forces the crypto community to improve its liquidity and product competitiveness.
This cycle will not simply repeat the script of the second half of 2023. The macro environment, regulatory attitudes, and funding structure have all changed. More geniuses and capital will come to challenge this market, and more people will fall before dawn. Wishing everyone financial prosperity, but the premise is to live until that day. Hold back, wait for CPI, wait for signals, wait for certainty.