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Crude oil surged 3% in early trading! Saudi Arabia's key pipeline shut down, Hormuz negotiations postponed
US crude CL surged 3% in early Asian trading, with the sole driving factor being the forced shutdown of Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline.
This pipeline has a designed capacity of 7 million barrels per day and serves as a critical "safety valve" for Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reach the Red Sea export terminal when the strait is blocked. The pipeline's shutdown effectively removes the world's most important backup export route for oil, instantly pricing in supply risks in the market.
Another major news: The Iran-Gulf countries meeting originally scheduled in Oman has been suddenly postponed.
The market had expected this meeting to finalize a new navigation understanding for Hormuz, but this new navigation agreement does not mean the strait will directly reopen. The postponement means short-term expectations for reopening are dashed, and geopolitical risk premiums continue to push oil prices higher.
Core market logic
1. Short-term bullish: The pipeline repair timeline is unknown; if repairs take longer, the global crude supply gap will quickly widen, making oil prices prone to further surges;
2. Potential bearish: If Saudi Arabia quickly completes emergency repairs and the pipeline resumes transport in a short time, this rally is event-driven and likely to see profit-taking and pullback;
3. Chain reaction: Stronger crude will raise global inflation expectations, indirectly bearish for risk assets, and the crypto market will also be disturbed by inflation expectations.
Trading strategy
Geopolitical news causes extreme volatility and quick spikes. Avoid chasing highs.
Focus on two signals: official Saudi updates on pipeline repair progress and the rescheduling of the Gulf countries meeting. Control positions strictly and set stop losses before news is confirmed.
How long do you think it will take Saudi Arabia to repair this pipeline?
#WTI crude oil #CL crude oil #energy geopolitics #market analysis $ARB I didn't even check the market, came back and looked, hmm? When did this happen? 😅
Just after lunch when I checked the market, every time ARB surged, it was just short of a breath, no one caught it on the way up. Before the market fully started, I placed a short order at 0.19556, just a reminder: high-level resistance, don't chase longs.
Later from 0.19556 down to 0.13502, floating profit +1547.35%, that gain feels good.
Closed 80% first, kept 20% to protect the cost price, if it continues to drop let the profit run, if it rebounds don't give the profit back.
Risk control is done upfront, that's called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
The market specializes in curing all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest.
Now is not the time to rush, if you miss it don't chase, wait for the next shot to move.
$LAB $ADA Slap you first on Monday?
$BTC fell below 77,000, $ETH hovered around 2,500, and $SOL even directly dropped below 100
Now it's not just the crypto circle itself falling
The Federal Reserve meets this week, inflation is a bit above expectations again, and Jianguo is still calling for rate cuts, the market starts to swing left and right
Oil prices suddenly surged, South Korea, Japanese stocks, and semiconductors all took a hit, SoftBank once dropped 10%, SK Hynix and Samsung also couldn't hold on
AI and tech stocks are cooling down, risk assets are also hard to stay unscathed
Looking further, ARB, STRK, and ZRO have large unlocks this week, macro + unlock double pressure stacking up, still want to be comfortable in the short term?
Is there still a bottom? How to catch the dip? Can you catch it halfway up the mountain?
The real big test is the FOMC early Thursday morning
If the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, BTC can stand back above 77,000, this wave might just be an emotional release
If #USStockMarket, #OilPrice, and #BTC continue to weaken together, then hurry to call the gold pit
The world is just a huge amateur troupeDust off this layer of freshly fallen soil; beneath it lies a bed of bones and defaulted contracts accumulated from the previous cycle. The fanatics in the contract trading groups screaming "the iron bottom has appeared" are no different from the priests in Pompeii who pointed at the faint smoke of Mount Vesuvius and declared it an auspicious sign. 🏛️
I sit before a desk piled with ancient books, coldly observing the myriad characters in the trading groups. That full-position veteran who blows up his account three times a week just posted a screenshot of going all-in long at 2483, arrogantly claiming this is a historic major rebound, with many followers echoing him below. But to an archaeologist accustomed to unearthing the history of civilization's collapse, this scene is eerily similar to the madness recorded in the remnants of the 17th-century tulip mania.
The resistance at the Bollinger Bands middle line at 2493.71 is no mere illusion but a weathered and collapsed rammed earth ruin. The 1-hour RSI has dropped to 41.1; the moisture inside the strata is being rapidly sucked dry by panic, leaving only cracked mud shells. The so-called buying support at the lower Bollinger Band of 2464 is as fragile as a piece of papyrus weathered for three thousand years under the long-term gravitational pressure of the major cycle. 📜
The analysts in the group playing tricks on believers continue to paint rosy pictures, dressing up every feeble dip and rebound as a dawn of revival. There is nothing new under the sun; mortals always think they can rewrite the stratigraphic profile with greed, unaware that they are already standing on the edge of a subsidence fault zone.
- Asset: $ETH 🔴
- Entry: 2485.00 - 2505.00
- TP1: 2440.00
- TP2: 2400.00
- SL: 2530.00
The laws of stratigraphic deposition never compromise; those who defy the cycle will ultimately be buried by wind and sand as sacrificial relics unearthed by the next generation.
#LeanEthereumRoadmap9.14 Monday BTC and ETH Outlook
Last week, the market ultimately chose to move downward, with BTC around 76800 and ETH near 2483. The rebound highs gradually decreased, continuing the bearish trend.
Three major events this week:
September 15 (Tuesday), the CLARITY Act procedural vote in the Senate requires 60 votes to advance; Republicans hold only 53 seats, so the probability of passing is low. Failure would cause short-term negative sentiment.
September 16 (Wednesday), the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. CME shows an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, with only a 13.8% chance of holding rates steady, making this the biggest source of volatility this week.
September 18 (Friday), the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Expectations for a rate hike are also strong, which may trigger arbitrage position closures and add extra selling pressure.
Capital flow: Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $462.7 million last week, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows, indicating institutions are reducing positions short-term. Ethereum ETFs are relatively resilient, with funds showing signs of rotating from BTC to ETH, but overall risk appetite is still contracting.
Trading reference:
BTC: Short in batches on rebounds between 77500-78000, target 76000; if broken, look for 75300-74800.
ETH: Short in batches on rebounds between 2510-2530, target 2450; if broken, look for 2400-2360.
$BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 $UNI I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me into profit. This service is top-notch. During the repeated fluctuations in the session, panic was everywhere on the screen. I was watching the support below holding and no break, with buying gradually strengthening, which gave me confidence.
The thought process was simple: as long as 5.722 doesn't break, go long. Now at 6.204, it has held steadily, +420.3% unrealized profit gives the answer, this wait was not in vain.
First, take 75% off the table, move the stop loss of the remaining 25% to the cost price to protect the position, and let the rest run with the market. Profit only counts when it becomes yours.
The market is waited out, profit is held out. Risk control done upfront is called rationality; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action. These two phrases are worth engraving next to the screen.
Now is not the time to chase; the candlestick has already moved a bit, entering now risks getting stuck halfway. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I'll notify when a new structure emerges.
$ZEC $BTC What truly warrants concern in this rally may not be how much it dropped in a single day, but that key psychological levels are losing support one after another. Currently, $BTC is oscillating around $76,800, remaining weak overall over the past week; $SOL is repeatedly battling around $100. The total market capitalization is currently about $2.6 trillion, with BTC holding nearly 59% market share, indicating that funds are clearly more defensive. Moreover, there are several other developments to watch now: 📌 The Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting approaches. The market is awaiting the rate decision on September 15–16, with macroeconomic uncertainty clearly increasing. Previously, BTC retreated from above $80,000, and risk aversion has begun to rise. 📌 BTC ETF capital flows deserve attention. Recently, US spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous capital outflows, with a single-day net outflow of about $283 million, indicating that some funds are reducing their risk exposure. 📌 Regulatory news may still affect market sentiment. The market is also paying attention to legislative developments related to the structure of the US crypto market. Any short-term changes in news could amplify volatility in BTC and mainstream altcoins. I am currently focusing on these five points: $BTC: Focus on whether the 77,000–78,000 level can be reestablished. If it repeatedly fails to recover, short-term pressure will continue. $SOL: The $100 level has shifted from support to a battleground for bulls and bears. Whether it can regain the 105–110 range is an important reference for future strength observationIn the early morning, old coins are being scooped up again. Which of ZEC, DASH, or LTC can truly go far this time?
#PPI, CPI released, multiple institutions raise September rate hike expectations
The market looks like a few shops suddenly lighting up on an old street at dawn; doors that no one noticed during the day now have people stopping to ask prices—ZEC, DASH, and LTC have re-entered the capital's view. Old coins are best at creating a "rotation is coming" feeling with a sharp pull, but those that truly go far are never the ones that surge first; it's when profit-taking emerges and there are still buyers.
#BTC spot ETF outflows near $450 million in three days
$ZEC still has the most independent rhythm. Once the privacy line gathers volume, it can completely bypass mainstream coins and start on its own, but after breaking through, it must quickly hold its ground; DASH is more volatile, with thin chips it can accelerate continuously, but without support on pullbacks, the faster it rises, the faster it falls; LTC is more like a confirmation signal—though slower in movement, sustained rising volume indicates that funds are not just speculating on one or two old coins.
Bulls are waiting for three actions: ZEC to absorb pressure, $DASH to break through without falling back, and LTC to have continuously increasing volume. If two of these occur, old coin rotation could shift from a pulse to a sustained trend; bears are waiting for DASH to fail at a high, then to see if ZEC can independently hold.
Looking ahead upward: watch ZEC to lead, DASH to accelerate, and $LTC to confirm; downward: watch DASH to first give back gains, and ZEC to fall back to consolidation zone. The first spark for old coins relies on nostalgia, but if there is a second wave of buyers, it shows the market is not just coming back for nostalgia this time.Retail investors are counter-trend buying in a downtrend channel; the 4-hour buy-sell ratio suddenly expands amid the decline, yet active transactions remain subdued. Prices are falling while positions are increasing, with both longs and shorts adding simultaneously. This crowding is inherently more dangerous than the direction itself: once a chain of forced liquidations is triggered, buyers tend to suffer the most. Funding rates are close to zero, and leverage has not truly been cleared. $BTC rebounds weakly, $ETH rallies then breaks key psychological support, with volume shrinking in sync, lacking short-term upward momentum. This structure means rebounds are more easily absorbed by selling pressure, while the lower support during sharp drops is thin, potentially amplifying volatility. On the macro level, rate hike expectations and liquidity tightening continue to weigh on risk assets; large funds are reluctant to attack recklessly. The more crowded the retail side, the easier it is for them to be washed out. Currently, it is neither a safe bottom-fishing window nor a clearly defined bottom; blindly shorting or heavily buying is inadvisable. A safer approach is to wait for the buy-sell ratio to fall back, positions to stabilize, and negative factors to settle before reassessing. Observational conditions to watch include whether volume expands again, if funding rates significantly deviate from zero, and whether key supports, once broken, can be quickly reclaimed. Protect your principal, keep ammunition ready, and patiently wait for genuine stabilization signals. Risk reminder: Crypto assets are highly volatile; the above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.The core logic of this week must be understood
1. The current volatility is a liquidity vacuum period before the decision
The spikes up and down only trigger stop losses, no trend trading
2. BRICS meeting and various positive sentiments
Only support the long-term bottom, not driving short-term market
The only main force this week: the Federal Reserve
3. BTC is currently a typical risk asset
High interest rates = tightening funds = unfavorable for crypto bubble expansion
Only when monetary policy easing expectations open up can BTC break new highs...
This week's operation iron rules
✅ Monday and Tuesday just watch without moving, no heavy positions, no betting on direction
✅ 75500–76000 is the life-or-death support this week
✅ 79500–81000 is strong resistance, do not chase longs if not broken
✅ Reduce leverage on contracts, no overnight heavy positions
✅ Spot market waits for decision landing and stabilization before layering in
All the volatility this week is a buildup; the real trend will be revealed early Wednesday.
Endure the volatility, wait for the turning point, this battle will determine the short-term overall rhythm. $$ZEC $Big Brother Maji has gone all in again and again. This time he closed all $HYPE long positions and reversed to open a 40x leveraged long position on BTC. Currently, he holds about 40,000 $ETH at 25x leverage and 595 $BTC at 40x leverage, with a total long position of 157 million U, but the unrealized profit is only 830,000 U.
Over a hundred million in chips, earning just a small fraction. The market shakes a bit, and this small floating profit can disappear in an instant.
News: All knives
US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, core PPI rose 4.7% over the past 12 months, both exceeding expectations. Brent crude oil broke through $100, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.353%, the highest in 19 years. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has soared to 86%.
For Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow, a risk-free rate above 5% means the opportunity cost of holding it is maxed out. Funds are flowing into yield-generating assets, not into crypto. After the PPI data release, over $190 million long positions were forcibly liquidated within 60 minutes, and Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $147 million over two consecutive days.
Market: Walking a tightrope at high altitude
$BTC is struggling around $77,000, down 3.26% on the weekly chart. Big Brother Maji’s $BTC average entry price is $79,384, liquidation price $68,731. With 40x leverage, if BTC falls to around $68,700, this position will be wiped out. The current market is just a macro data drop away from that price.
$ETH is slightly better, with a 25x long position entry price at $2,444 and liquidation price at $2,331. ETH is currently oscillating between $2,370 support and $2,530 resistance, with the 50-week moving average pressing from above. This is the third attempt to challenge the $2,550 weekly close; surpassing it leads to $3,000, failing means a pullback to $2,400.
$HYPE has already fully exited. Previously, the 10x long position was worth nearly 16 million U, and Big Brother Maji closed all positions in early September. HYPE recently fell from $89 to around $79, with funding rates turning negative at -0.0033%/8h. He didn’t exit early, but at least he didn’t linger.
The most critical issue is the leverage structure. $ETH liquidation price at $2,331 is less than 5% away from the current price. $BTC liquidation price at $68,731 is also not far. The entire position has about 15.95x average leverage, dancing on the edge in a macro environment of full rate hike expectations, oil prices breaking $100, and soaring US Treasury yields.
The core variables for September are clear: CPI data and the Fed meeting on September 16. The market has largely priced in rate hikes, with an 83% probability on Polymarket. But the problem is, even if data meets expectations, it’s not necessarily positive—because the market is already trading “rate hikes” as the baseline scenario. The real risk is data exceeding expectations or the Fed signaling a more hawkish stance.
Big Brother Maji has been liquidated over 335 times historically, earning the community nickname "King of Liquidations." He was forcibly liquidated 71 times in a single month, and when losing, he adds to positions instead of cutting losses—he’s been on this path for almost a year.
A 157 million position, 830,000 floating profit. One spike wipes it out, two spikes liquidate it. Using a cannon to kill a mosquito; if the mosquito isn’t killed, the cannon barrel explodes first.
Retail investors should just watch; this game isn’t for everyone.
#OKX百万规划师
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 If BTC is pretending to be dormant above 77,000, then the real risk may not lie in price, but in the patience of leverage. Guess who is most likely to be swept up right now? The market looks quiet: BTC is around 77,043, with only a 0.40% drawdown in 24 hours, trading volume of about 2.27 billion, but net inflows of about 577 million. If the price stays steady and money is flowing in, it means there are people buying spot positions, but derivatives may not be easy. The longer the sideways movement lasts, the easier it is for funding rates to crowd the bulls. Once the rate is positive and positions pile up, stop-losses and forced liquidations below become the most vulnerable points. Breaking upward requires continued spot buying; inserting downward only requires one leveraged cleanup. FIL seemed to be ignited today, rising 15.38% with a fluctuation close to 20%, trading volume about 89.96 million, net inflow about 77.82 million. This structure is impressive, but it also means short-term chips are highly concentrated, and those chasing at high prices are providing deeper support for others' exits. It may continue to push to 1.05, or first test 0.88 to 0.90 before deciding on direction. LTC, on the other hand, only had about 19.05 million in 24 hours, up 0.57%, with low capital attention and flattened volatility, suitable for very patient people, not for those looking to make quick money. What I care more about now is risk management, not directional trading orders. The bullish logic is that BTC holds around 76,434, with net inflows continuing to support it. If FIL doesn't break below 0.83, then the risk appetite for altcoins can continue. The bearish risk lies in BTC not breaking below 78,500 for a long time, the rate heating up, crowded positions, and a rapid accelerationBTC weekly candle closed bearish. Weekend trading shrank to $44.8 billion in 24 hours, dominated by bears. It fell from the high of 79,900 to 77,100, with MA5/10 forming a resistance zone between 77,300-78,000; rebounds to this area were pushed back. ETH dropped from 2,666 to 2,513, closing the weekly near 2,513. Interestingly, ETH ETF saw a single-day inflow of 216 million, a new high this month; institutions are buying, but the market isn't rising, indicating macro pressure is suppressing the price.
Two major events tomorrow. At 8 AM, the Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act; at 2 AM, the FOMC meeting. The probability of a rate hike is 85-87%, with Goldman Sachs openly predicting 25 basis points. These two events will conclude within 48 hours, so the direction depends on the outcomes.
The worst thing over the weekend is impatience. Liquidity is thin; a single spike can trigger stop losses. My plan remains unchanged: keep contract positions empty waiting for the events, hold spot positions without moving, and place buy orders at 75,700 waiting to be triggered. Move only after the news, no premature actions.
Patience is also a position.ETH is currently trading within a high-level range.
It previously surged quickly from around 1900 to above 2500. Afterwards, the price did not continue to break out but instead oscillated between 2400 and 2550.
Yesterday, there was a spike up to around 2660, which looked strong, but the close fell back into the range. This is a typical liquidity sweep upwards: first shaking out the shorts, then trapping those chasing longs.
Now, focus on two key levels.
2465 is the short-term equilibrium line. If the daily candle breaks below and fails to recover above it, the downside target is 2400–2350.
2529–2550 is the range resistance. Only a volume-supported close above this can qualify for another challenge at 2660.
So this is neither the end of a bull market nor a position to blindly chase longs.
Hold your spot positions; don’t get shaken out by the range.
For contracts, trade the range: short near resistance, long near support. Take profits when you can; accept losses when hit.
The real major defense level is still near 2218.
Currently, the market has no directional problem, only a rhythm problem. #$ETH $BTC Staying up until the end of the weekend, who is the real winner between SOL and DOGE? 🏆
After the release of #PPI and CPI, multiple institutions have raised their expectations for a September rate hike.
$BTC at 77270, with nearly 450 million net outflow from spot ETFs in the past three days and institutions reducing positions, but whales have absorbed 1075 coins in 4 days at an average price of 79412. There is support below 77,000, and the price is stuck grinding between 77,000 and 77,500. The whole weekend, BTC stayed flat, and money moved to other coins looking for opportunities.
$SOL at 102, the one that held strong over the weekend, was bought up immediately when it dipped to 98.66 during the session. Spot ETF funds are still flowing in. Resistance is between 105 and 108. Despite the pressure from rate hikes, it refuses to fall, supported by real money backing it.
$DOGE at 0.085, the one that moved first on weekend sentiment, rose 3%. The range from 0.086 to 0.09 is all trapped positions, purely driven by sentiment. When rate hikes pressure sentiment, it retreats first. It rises fast and falls fast, suitable only for small-scale speculative play.
On the last day of the weekend, SOL is holding firm thanks to capital, DOGE is bouncing on sentiment. One is the real winner, the other just a false hype. If you want stability, go with SOL; if you want excitement, play DOGE. Don’t mistake sentiment for fundamentals. $UP The account number increased, but I didn't do anything, is this reasonable? 🔥
Last night before bed, I saw UP had strong bullish traps, obvious resistance above, each rebound weaker than the last. I placed a short at 0.4420, thinking: as long as no one takes it, it will eventually go down.
As a result, it dropped from 0.4420 to 0.3318, floating profit +249.09%, feeling good brothers.
Put the big chunk in the pocket first, close +249.09%, set the remaining +249.09% as cost protection, if it continues to drop let the profit run, if it falls back don't let the profit become uncomfortable.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it's yours; any more floating profit belongs to the market.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me, don't chase shorts now, wait for a new structure to appear, the market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience.
$ZEC $SNDK [Wild Crane Crypto Watch · Morning Lesson] Dropped below 77,000, 88%+ rate hike probability + ETF outflows, panic or not?
BTC opened Monday below 77,000, hitting a low of 76,400. The rate hike probability surged to 88%, and ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days. It looks scary, but the 75,000 support still holds.
Two key points today: First, it's the central banks' super week with meetings from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England. The market grinds until the shoe drops; second, Middle East tensions are rising, Brent crude oil is up over 3%, and risk-off sentiment is suppressing risk assets, but this is a short-term disturbance.
Three things for positions: Don't use leverage; 120,000 people were liquidated today, all leveraged; separate your base and flexible positions, flexible positions around 76,000 can be replenished in batches—the lower it goes, the more you buy; expect high volatility before the rate decision, only hold what you can sleep well with. Most people's first reaction when seeing expansion numbers is to calculate whether there are enough chips. Project developers will first calculate another figure: where the money comes from.
TSMC's capital expenditure next year is between 60 billion and 64 billion USD, with 70% to 80% focused on advanced processes. This money is not recouped by selling chips but relies on customers locking in capacity in advance. The three new factories are spread across Taiwan, Arizona, and Japan, essentially splitting geopolitical risk into three priced parts.
A more likely explanation is that the upstream is setting the pace for the downstream. Whoever gets capacity first defines the next product cycle. The direct evidence of shortage is: how much of this capacity has been locked by prepayments.
Watch the prepayment item in TSMC's next quarter earnings call. If the growth rate does not keep up with expansion, it indicates demand is hesitating.
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#英伟达拟向Anthropic投资最高100亿美元 #SpaceXCFO称有信心实现1000亿美元ARR $ZEC Today, the Asia-Pacific region crashed directly, and the South Korean stock market triggered a circuit breaker again. The essence is not a sudden event, but a global capital risk repricing ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on the 17th. The common problem across Wall Street, the crypto market, and the stock market now is that expectations have been pushed too high. Recently, everyone unanimously bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, implementing easing policies, and a risk asset rally. But the recent consecutive PPI and CPI data all reflect one fact: inflation has not been suppressed at all, it is very sticky, and there are even signs of a rebound. The market's current state is particularly abnormal: everyone knows the Federal Reserve has always been "hawkish in words but dovish in action." Every meeting they make tough statements, call for fighting inflation, and urge caution, but at critical moments, they never take action. Over time, the market has completely figured out the Fed's routine: you only scare people but never dare to act. This is the biggest macro risk now—the Federal Reserve's credibility is being overdrawn, ignored, and manipulated by the market. Many people don't understand: why, when inflation rebounds, is there a possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike? The logic is very simple: a 25BP rate hike has a very small cost but a huge value in restoring credibility. The Federal Reserve is now trapped in a dilemma: 1. Continue not to raise rates: in the short term, stocks and crypto markets will surge, and everyone will be happy. But in the medium to long term, it will be completely ruined. The market will firmly believe that the Fed is held hostage by assets, unwilling to tighten, and inflation can be left unchecked. Subsequent inflation expectations will rise again, long-term bond yields will spiral out of control, and future regulation will become twice as difficult. 2. Implement a 25BP rate hike: a single rate hike is very small and will not directly$EDGE Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety.
Before the market fully started, EDGE was moving sideways at the bottom against EDGE, looking weak, but actual buying came in waves. I placed the stop loss below the support level, betting it wouldn't break. This wave started directly at midnight, with the price rising from 0.4716 all the way to 0.6103, yielding a return of +589.9%. This profit wasn't chased, it was waited for; every lower shadow candle in between felt like shaking people off.
Better to miss a rise than to catch a falling knife and get bloodied.
First, pocket 75% to turn the profit into truly your own money; raise the stop loss on the remaining 25% to protect it, take more if it surges, and don't feel bad if it falls back. Risk control done upfront is called rational; cutting losses later is called decisive.
Don't be reckless at this position now; short-term fluctuations can happen anytime. When a more suitable structure appears in the next round, I will notify immediately. For now, control your hands and wait for the signal.
$ADA $BTC TSMC expansion, what does it have to do with the crypto world?
TSMC plans to increase its 2nm monthly capacity from 90,000 wafers to 110,000 wafers next year.
3nm capacity will rise from 180,000 wafers to 210,000 wafers.
What does this number mean: one wafer is a whole round silicon wafer.
Several hundred chips can be cut from one wafer.
110,000 wafers is per month, not per year.
Where does this money come from: over 60 billion USD in capital expenditure.
70% to 80% of it is invested in advanced process technology.
Newcomers to the crypto space might ask what this has to do with coin prices.
My guess is that mining machines and AI computing power will both compete for production capacity.
If they can't get it, prices go up, and higher prices push up computing power costs.
This chain is a bit far-fetched, just take it as a lively topic.
#英伟达拟向Anthropic投资最高100亿美元
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 $BTC 4% of the global supply is gone! Yanbu port inventory only enough for 7 days, BTC 76000 defense line in danger
Brothers, Saudi Arabia is not joking this time. The 1200 km east-west oil pipeline was bombed by drones and preemptively shut down, Yanbu port inventory only enough for 5 to 7 days. If it can't be repaired, global oil supply will directly lose 4%, Saudi Arabia's August production has already plummeted from 10.9 million barrels to 6.2 million barrels.
This is a fatal chain reaction for the crypto circle.
Step one, oil prices surge. Brent touched a high of 110, WTI broke 100, rising more than 8% in a week.
Step two, inflation expectations heat up. When oil prices rise, inflation won't come down. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped directly from 72% to 89%, with two hikes expected this year.
Step three, US Treasury yields soar. The 10-year Treasury yield has already reached 4.95%, the 30-year broke 5.35%, hitting the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. $BTC #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 In this cycle, the activity of "long-term holders (LTH)" who have held BTC for more than half a year is significantly higher than in previous cycles. However, since entering 2026, this group of the most steadfast large holders has been very calm overall—even with the recent sharp rise in coin prices, they have only symbolically "slightly reduced their positions to take profits," showing no signs of large-scale chip dumping. In short: the main force is still watching.
The absolute signal of the peak of each major bull market is inevitably "long-term holders (LTH) start massively distributing chips to short-term holders (STH/retail investors)." But on-chain data shows LTH are still holding tightly and watching, which means there is no systemic large-scale chip distribution upstream in the market. Market turnover remains within a healthy range, and the chip structure is quite solid. Therefore, the recent market fluctuations do not indicate an end. #$BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 After an overnight bout of volatility, the price returned to around 76400.
The long position at 76779 from yesterday is still held, with no exit despite a few hundred points of fluctuation in the early morning.
The morning session is weak, with two consecutive large bearish candles on the 4-hour chart, suppressed by the moving averages above. However, this round of pullback looks more like a consolidation; 76300 has not been effectively broken, and the overall trend has not reversed.
After a thousand-point correction, the market expects a recovery rebound; the deeper the pullback, the greater the potential rebound space. The previous rebound high was 77450, and if this rebound strengthens, it is expected to challenge 78000.
$BTC $ETH #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #英伟达拟向Anthropic投资最高100亿美元 Nvidia plans to invest up to $10 billion in Anthropic! Jensen Huang's calculation is very clever—invest in AI companies, AI companies buy my chips, forming a perfect "AI circular financing" closed loop. ANTHROPIC rose 1.27%, Nvidia slightly fell 0.05%.
Behind this is the further concentration of AI computing power hegemony. Nvidia responded to doubts about the "AI circular financing," and this concern is not without reason, very much like the "vendor financing" during the internet bubble period. But from another perspective, any new technological revolution in its early stages has capital bubbles. For the crypto industry, this is both a warning and an opportunity.
The warning is: the monopoly of centralized giants is intensifying. The opportunity is: if decentralized computing power networks can break this closed loop and make computing power pricing transparent, that will be the next big narrative. Bubbles and opportunities coexist; it depends on your choice. Breaking the closed loop, decentralized computing power has great potential. $ZEC $ETH $BTC $AERO What about the promised stop loss? The market didn't even touch it, so I was anxious for nothing all night.🫡
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, AERO's rebounds were weak each time, and volume didn't keep up. I judged that the resistance above still held, so I signaled a short at 0.6409. As long as it can't break through, the pullback is only natural.
Opened position at 0.6409, now at 0.5580, floating profit +259.01%. The wait was worth it; this gain feels good.
Take profit on 80% first, keep 20% at cost price as protection. Don't give back profits on the rebound; if it continues to drop, let the profits run.
Panic comes from lack of planning; losses come from overthinking.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair over pullbacks.
Chasing shorts risks getting slapped by a rebound. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and act when the next signal appears. Now is not the time to rush; if you miss it, don't chase.
$ADA $SNDK Monday morning, first thing is to check the market. A new week, the trading table reopens.
$BTC is hovering around 77,000, stuck between support at 76,600 and resistance at 77,700. Jiang Zhuoer said it might first sweep the liquidation zone above 76,000 before pulling back. ETFs saw a net outflow of 462 million last week. I placed a small order at 76,600, didn’t dare to go heavy. This position feels more like a halfway point than an opportunity.
$ETH at 2,492 has rebounded 55% from the June low. The 2,350-2,400 range is the key support for this rally; if it can’t hold above 2,550, it will remain volatile. No position, waiting for direction.
$DOGE at 0.0835 broke below the 20-day moving average, MACD is weakening. 0.08 is the last line of defense; if it breaks, the structure is damaged. I’m holding a small amount without moving it. Musk hasn’t tweeted, the hype is definitely fading.
Expectations for today’s open: The Dow fell 1.6% last week, the Nasdaq down 0.7%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.97%. The probability of a FOMC rate hike is 86%, basically priced in. If the open continues to digest the rate hike, BTC will most likely test 76,600 again. If it breaks, expect lower; if not, it will keep hovering.
My position is very light, waiting to see the reaction at open.
Are you guys ready to buy today, or will you keep watching?🔥 $LINK / $AAVE / $SUI | Three Different Engines
$LINK → transforms off-chain data into infrastructure for blockchain.
$AAVE → turns idle liquidity into on-chain capital markets.
$SUI → bets on scaling the on-chain experience.
Noteworthy point: all three do not compete to do the same thing. Their value comes from different layers in the crypto economy.
$LINK builds infrastructure.
$AAVE optimizes capital efficiency.
$SUI optimizes execution.
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow 700 flights, the crypto circle hasn't caught up even once
700 times now, $BTC is still in the same place.
Past comparison: Falcon's first flight was in 2006, back then Bitcoin hadn't been born yet.
Current comparison: The rocket has flown 700 times, but the crypto market cap hasn't even managed a decent new high once.
Prediction: This scale gap will only get bigger.
To put it simply, the rocket's progress bar is solid, the coin price's progress bar is soft.
The small position I hold isn't even enough fuel for the first flight.
The five-guarantee households watching the rocket can only look up.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $BTC $ETH Everyone's screaming "ETH's done" while it's up 1.6% on the week with RSI at 63 on the 1d.
$BTC down 3.4% and suddenly the whole market's dead?
You're watching headlines, not charts.#英伟达拟向Anthropic投资最高100亿美元
Latest Data
Reports indicate that Nvidia is negotiating to participate as a cornerstone investor with up to $10 billion in Anthropic's IPO. The target valuation for this listing is about $2 trillion. Negotiation details have not been finalized, and terms remain subject to change. The market shows $BTC at 74160, with overall market volatility limited. AI-related crypto themes briefly surged before quickly retreating. Market trading remains quiet, with capital focus still on U.S. Treasury bonds and inflation data.
Market Consensus
One viewpoint believes this deal will ignite global AI sector sentiment, bringing a new round of opportunities in computing power and AI application tracks, with related themes having speculative potential;
Another perspective warns that the deal is not yet finalized, and the $10 billion investment leans more toward industrial chain interest binding, making it difficult for pure sentiment to sustain a lasting market rally.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Anthropic itself is a core customer of Nvidia GPUs. This investment is essentially not a pure financial investment but a deep binding with downstream customers to secure long-term computing power orders. Industry benefits can bring short-term sentiment pulses, but the overall crypto market direction is still dominated by macro interest rates. A single industry news item is unlikely to reverse the overall market trend.
Personal View (Personally inclined to a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice) #英伟达拟向Anthropic投资最高100亿美元
Latest Data
Reports indicate that Nvidia is negotiating to participate as a cornerstone investor with up to $10 billion in Anthropic's IPO. The target valuation for this listing is about $2 trillion. Negotiation details have not been finalized, and terms remain subject to change. The market shows $BTC at 74160, with overall market volatility limited. AI-related crypto themes briefly surged before quickly retreating. Market trading remains quiet, with capital focus still on U.S. Treasury bonds and inflation data.
Market Consensus
One viewpoint believes this deal will ignite global AI sector sentiment, bringing a new round of opportunities in computing power and AI application tracks, with related themes having speculative potential;
Another perspective warns that the deal is not yet finalized, and the $10 billion investment leans more toward industrial chain interest binding, making it difficult for pure sentiment to sustain a lasting market rally.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Anthropic itself is a core customer of Nvidia GPUs. This investment is essentially not a pure financial investment but a deep binding with downstream customers to secure long-term computing power orders. Industry benefits can bring short-term sentiment pulses, but the overall crypto market direction is still dominated by macro interest rates. A single industry news item is unlikely to reverse the overall market trend.
Personal View (Personally inclined to a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice) #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
Good morning, I was just about to start a new week when I came across this news, and my good mood vanished immediately.
From September 8 to 10, the US BTC spot ETFs saw nearly $450 million in net outflows over three consecutive days. The most shocking was the single-day outflow of $283 million on the 10th, with major institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale all retreating. Keep in mind, at the beginning of September, they were aggressively buying $1.01 billion in just three days; their turnaround speed is faster than flipping a page.
Why are institutions all running away? You'll understand after looking at the second half of the screenshot. Next week (early morning September 17), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with the probability of a rate hike approaching 90%. Then on September 25, there is a massive quarterly options expiration totaling $14.39 billion. These two major macro risks hang overhead, and big money would rather stay on the sidelines than catch a falling knife before the policy meeting.
The market also confirms this: BTC and ETH are both slowly declining. BTC is stuck around 76,600, with an extremely frustrating trend. Over the weekend, it oscillated below 77,000 for two consecutive days, which is a classic dull knife cutting into flesh.
At times like this, don’t try to guess the bottom or catch the dip. Institutions are all hedging and retreating; retail investors rushing in are just handing over their heads. My strategy is simple: play dead with spot holdings and firmly avoid leverage. Wait until the FOMC and options expiration dust settle next week, once the big picture is clear, then we make our move. Save your bullets; don’t hand over your principal before dawn.
$BTC $ETH
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 By 2035, the largest economic entity in global trading volume will not be humans. Not multinational corporations, not hedge funds, not sovereign wealth funds. It is AI Agents. They operate 24×/7 without sleep, visas, or bank accounts. They complete payments, settlements, investments, and hedging worldwide—millions of transactions per second, hundreds of times larger than today's human financial markets. And the economic foundation of these AI Agents is not SWIFT, not Visa, not any bank's API. It is Ethereum. This is not a science fiction fantasy. From 2025 to 2026, AI Agent activity on the Ethereum chain will skyrocket. Over 2 million AI Agents have already been deployed on Virtuals Protocol, Skyfire's payment network covers over 100 countries, and Coinbase's AgentKit allows any AI model to have its own Ethereum wallet in seconds. Why choose Ethereum? Why Ethereum? Because the four things AI Agents need—permissionless, programmable, deterministic execution, and anti-censorship—are precisely the features Ethereum has built into its protocol since day one. Banks need ID cards, Ethereum does not. APIs require approvals, Ethereum does not. Traditional financial probabilistic liquidation causes machine risk control models to collapse, while Ethereum's EVM deterministic execution allows agents to operate flawlessly. Ethereum's upgrade path$TRUMP I originally wanted to go to the forum to rant, but after checking the balance, I decided against it. The market daddy is always right.
This happened just as the market was crashing in the early session. TRUMP rebounded from a high to around 2.220, but every surge fell just short, and the volume kept shrinking—a typical sign of a weak rebound. Rather than an opportunity, it was more like a bull trap. I decisively opened a short position to add to my shorts.
Now at 1.954, down from 2.220, my position profit has reached +601.35%. Not the most explosive move, but the timing was perfect and comfortable.
Take profits when you should. I first closed 80% of my position to secure profits. The remaining 20% has protection near the cost basis, not greedy for the last bit.
Panic comes from lack of planning; losses come from overthinking.
Shorting at this position? I advise you to stop. The place right after a drop is most prone to long wicks. Wait for the market to stabilize, see where it rebounds to, and whether it stalls again—that’s when I’ll open my next position. Wait for the signal, don’t rush.
$LAB $BNB $BTC box pattern + high leverage environment is especially draining 2480: The first hurdle ahead. If it can't hold, the rebound remains weak.
2494—2500: The real hourly-level watershed. This is MA20 + SAR + a round number. If the rebound reaches here and is pushed down again, I will still interpret it as a pullback within a bearish trend.
2460—2462: The real support below. If it breaks here and still can't hold, then look again at 2450, 2430.BTC stopped at $76,500 last night and has already bounced back to around $76,900 this morning, but SOL is still below $100. In this rebound, risk appetite hasn't returned.
At 8:30, looking at OKX, BTC rebounded about $437 from the 24-hour low of $76,500, ETH also recovered from $2,461.5 to $2,484.8; SOL is only at $99.39, still below yesterday's 8:00 PM level of $99.81. BTC perpetual funding rate is about 0.0041%, lower than yesterday afternoon's 0.0068%, indicating a slight easing of leverage crowding. However, high-volatility coins haven't risen in sync, so for now, I only consider this a breather for mainstream coins.
Today, the core BTC spot remains unchanged, and I won't add SOL. Only if BTC holds $76,500, ETH recovers above $2,500, and SOL rises above $100.5 will I consider risk appetite truly back. If BTC falls below $76,500 again, I will continue to reduce my crypto positions.
Data source: OKX. Personal record, not investment advice. $BTC 05 Female Trader Morning Review ☀️
A new day, the market remains brutal.
$BICO plunged 5.54%, long positions are floating a loss of -1634.86U, and the whale shorts are close to 90% profit.
The data clearly points to the bears, yet I still hold on with a sliver of hope, unwilling to admit the direction was wrong.
$HYPE dropped 2.14%, floating profit fluctuates between gains and losses, currently +574.50U.
There are more whales bullish, but the market can still sharply pull back.
It turns out that even if most big players are long, the market won’t follow everyone’s expectations.
Leverage amplifies every move infinitely,
When holding a position, you always think it will rebound; when floating profit, you think it can go higher.
The scariest thing in trading is not loss, but self-deception.
Constantly remind yourself to respect the market and let go of illusions 💔
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% Good morning, just opened my eyes on Monday and saw this market situation, feeling like I can't even catch my breath. After staying up for two days over the weekend, BTC not only didn't rebound but quietly fell below 77,000, now stuck at 76,691, down 0.57% in 24 hours.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, my heart sank halfway. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are all pressing downwards, clearly a bearish alignment, with the price hugging the lower Bollinger Band going down. The first line of defense below is 76,400, but judging by the momentum, it looks shaky; if it breaks, the previous low at 76,000 will probably be tested again.
Just saw a pretty surreal news piece about a developer open-sourcing a project "using radioactive decay to generate Bitcoin." I can only say the market is really boring right now, everyone is doing these quirky gimmicks to grab attention.
Back to the main topic, the biggest challenge this week is Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The probability of a rate hike is approaching 90%, and big money is all retreating to safety, which is the core reason for the market's continuous slow decline.
This kind of dull, slow bleeding market is the easiest to get caught up in. Don't try to guess the bottom, and don't itch to open leverage positions. Just play dead in the spot market and save your bullets. Wait for Wednesday's announcement; once the direction is clear, we can act. Adjust your mindset on Monday, work steadily, and don't let the market affect your life.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.645, top positions long-short ratio 0.769; whole market accounts long-short ratio 4.443; price down 0.48%, position value change -0.09%.
$CP top accounts and top positions are both more short: top accounts long-short ratio 0.934, top positions long-short ratio 0.671; whole market accounts long-short ratio 3.592; price down 3.26%, position value change +1.62%. The account number structure and position distribution of the top group are aligned.
$LAB top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.596, top positions long-short ratio 0.690; whole market accounts long-short ratio 3.595; price down 1.94%, position value change +0.82%.
DOGE, LAB: The side dominating in account numbers is opposite to the side dominating in positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
DOGE, CP, LAB: The whole market account structure is biased long, which also differs from the top positions bias.$BTC Not responsible for providing standard answers.
When old resistance is turned into support, sideways movement is no longer stagnant, but rather supply is slowly being drained. The calmer the market, the more it seems to pave the way for the next stage of expansion.
The memory of 2022 still holds true: the same grueling, the same doubts, and in the end, we chose to move upward.
My spot trading will be placed below 70,000, in batches, leaving some margin.
Those waiting for the perfect signal usually only buy sentiment, not chips. Getting on board first is more cost-effective than being left behind by BTC.Recently, the market has been getting hotter and hotter: BTC hits new highs, ETH keeps strengthening, and SOL, SUI, and OKB rise in succession. Many people's accounts finally start to recover, even doubling. But the more I get at this point, the more afraid I become. Why? Because during the most dangerous moments of a bull market, it's not that no one buys, but that everyone is buying. I've seen too many people make $600,000 from $100,000, thinking $1 million is right in front of them; But then a sudden crash not only wipes out profits, but even their principal shrinks. In the later stages of a bull market, there are three particularly obvious signals: First, more and more positive news can drive up the market. Second, voices of 'financial freedom' and 'quitting to speculate on crypto' start appearing on social media. Third, newcomers rush in, while veteran players start to fall silent. Many people think taking profit means being bearish, but that's not the case at all. Taking profit isn't about leaving the market; it's about locking in part of your profits so the next pullback won't ruin your entire account. My principle for myself is simple: * Core assets like BTC and ETH can be held for a longer period, but you should also cash out profits in batches. * For coins with higher volatility like SOL, SUI, and OKB, don't wait for the peak—sell part of it when it reaches your target. * Always keep cash; only when the market crashes will you have bullets. What truly sets the crypto world apart isn't buying a tenfold coin, but being able to hold onto profits after ten times. Many people keep asking: "When should you sell?" My answer hasn't changed: No one can sell at the peak, but everyone can sell when they're profitable. This bull market, I...This week's market is like schizophrenia, fireworks on the left, a morgue on the right.
First, BONK, a pure emotion amplifier. Intraday volatility over thirty points, dragged up hard from the lows by capital inflows of tens of millions, a typical hot money game of passing the parcel. Rush in to stimulate, then the last runner also stimulates.
ETH is like an old monk in meditation, with significant net outflows, but the price is sluggish, with pitifully small volatility; large holders are probably splitting orders to retreat. ARB hasn't dropped much but has small net inflows, indicating someone is picking up chips amid the chaos. The most torturous is BTC, moving sideways in a straight line, capital quietly slipping away, the trend like an old TV with no signal.
My plan:
Direction: Focus mainly on BONK, only buy on pullbacks, no chasing highs.
Entry: Wait for a pullback to the 0.000021–0.000022 range, confirm support before acting.
Stop loss: 0.0000195, admit mistake if it breaks below, no love affair with it.
Target: First look at previous high 0.000026, if volume breaks through, then 0.000029, take profits in batches.
ETH and BTC are temporarily on the watchlist, no volatility means no fees. In this market, be fast, accurate, and ruthless; don't be greedy or stubborn. Personal review, not investment advice.Opposite the chessboard sit two world champions. One pushes the king's pawn forward and then pulls it back, while the other counts how many moves remain before entering the game. Sam Altman announced no IPO in 2026—not a retreat, but a calculated sacrifice—he throws the temptation of short-term capital onto the board in exchange for unparalleled freedom in the midgame. He'd rather wear the shackles of AI safety review himself than let public market shareholders make moves for him.
Look closely, there are two players opening completely different games here. Anthropic is preparing for an IPO and has brought in Nvidia as an anchor investor—this is a classic Italian opening: first occupy the center, reveal the rooks and knights, quickly gain material advantage, and firmly treat the stock price as their territory. Altman chooses a slow game with a King's Gambit Declined style, first giving up immediate exchanges, stockpiling pieces within his own structure, waiting for the endgame. He says, "We need flexibility to make decisions that may not align with short-term commercial interests," which in chess terms means: I don't intend to let you restrict my moves with quarterly earnings reports.
Ray Dalio calls for slowing down frontier AI development, and Altman surprisingly agrees. This move is the real deep water. Two top players publicly call for "slow," often because they've both calculated the dangerous branches ahead—if the moves accelerate, the board becomes uncontrollable, and whoever rushes first collapses first. On the surface, this is a safety consensus; in reality, it's a strategic tacit understanding: slow down the pace, lock down the opponent's imagination.
Now look at the linkage with the $xQQQ token. After the US stock index is tokenized, it’s like a piece copied onto another chessboard—you might think it’s still the original pawn, but it has become a bishop that can penetrate both games at any time. When the core AI assets choose not to enter the public board, those derivative instruments valued by packaging, expectations, or IPO arbitrage enter a "no-anchor endgame"—no real redemption point, only emotions clashing.
Capital is always searching for pieces that can be played to the endgame. Altman says this is not the right time, so capital will move to Anthropic’s IPO game or retreat to squares closer to liquidity. This is not panic; it’s a process of redeploying pieces. The truly fatal move is: when everyone thinks AI capitalization is a guaranteed win, and two top players simultaneously hit the pause button, the entire midgame narrative must be rewritten—and those who have staked everything on "IPO equals cash out" will find their king already locked diagonally by the opponent’s bishop. #openainoipoin20269/14 Morning Session: Platform Sector
$OKB | Breakout Retest Failed
The 114.7 retest level mentioned on Sunday is now below, breakout invalidated, back below the upper edge of the range.
Support: 111–112 (currently testing), 108–107
Resistance: 114.7 (former retest level, now resistance), 116.5, $118, $120.
114.7 flipped from support to resistance; to target 120, 114.7 must be reclaimed and held.
Avoid new longs in the short term. If 108 holds, still range-bound; if 108 breaks, look at 102–105.
$BNB | Neutral to Bearish, No Independent Bullish Setup
Support: 710, 700, 680.
Resistance: 728–730, 740, 75.
After losing 728 platform, treat as a pullback, not a confirmed new breakdown.
Neutral to bearish, no independent bullish setup. If BTC holds 7.6, BNB likely to consolidate between 710–728; if BTC breaks 7.6, BNB targets 700–680.
$HYPE | Short-term Bearish/Watch
Support: 75 (near 20-day moving average previous support), 68–67 (around 50-day moving average), 62
Resistance: 80.7 (last Friday's nearby high), $86.5, $88.
Retraced over 10% from ATH, short-term structure weakening.
Short-term bearish to watch; platform fundamentals remain intact, watch 75 support; if 75 breaks, retracement targets 68.
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 $ETH 100U Quant Trading Day 25 (8:30)｜Three Steps All Hit, Rhythm Fork
Yesterday I said that script, all the points were fulfilled, just the timing forked: said to test down to 2493, soon dropped to 2460; said it would bounce back to 2500 to grind, but it only came at dawn; said to move back to 2510, those two spikes at 2515 at dawn basically finished the move. Pretty accurate, just half a beat slow.
Position setup:
· Resistance above: 2486, then a hard ceiling near 2510
· Support below: 2460, then 2430
Still a 2460-2510 box range
My view is downward. It surged up once a few days ago but was quickly pushed back, and these days it repeatedly tested 2510 but couldn't hold; all four cycle momentums are negative, and long accounts still hold over 60% without selling—no one is buying up on the way up, but there are plenty to cover on the way down. Short-term oversold, a bounce is not surprising, but I think after the bounce it still has to go down, just depends on how many times 2460 can hold.
The bot did well last night: at 9 PM when it dropped, it bought a lot between 2450-2465, then reduced some at the rebound to 2490, and cleared the short orders above at low levels. But it kept buying between 2460-2480 this morning, holding quite a few longs—I see a downward trend, but with it buying like this, I'm a bit nervous.
Current balance 142U, cumulative +42U💰
Brothers, which side will break first today?
Be flexible at key points, watch your position size, take profits and stop losses timely, and pay attention to data timeliness.
⚠️The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment adviceVolume is the most honest indicator; $GPS's surge without volume has long planted the hidden risk of a subsequent pullback.
During the price sprint to 0.011466, trading volume continued to shrink, and incremental off-exchange funds were unwilling to enter and take over. The rise driven solely by existing funds is weak at its foundation, and a pullback after the surge is only a matter of time.
Simulated a short position at 0.011466; with buying power exhausted, the market oscillated downward, marking a price of 0.010184. This simulation yielded a return of +223.55%.
Review insight: Surges lacking volume support are all false rallies, with hidden pullback risks continuously accumulating behind them. $BTC $ZEC #CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进 The monthly nominal transaction volume of 1.75 billion has skyrocketed, with a 61% month-over-month increase like a newly installed glass curtain wall—visually impressive, but it doesn't bear weight.
What truly determines how tall this building can be constructed is never the reflectivity of the curtain wall, but which layer of bedrock the foundation piles reach. Looking at the construction plan for this quarter: the load on the crypto channel has directly pierced through the 61% mark, indicating it is not a temporary structure supported by marketing scaffolding, but a real expansion of the traffic flow—users can enter, stay, and repeatedly pass through. On the prediction market side, the 470 million contract volume fell 23% month-over-month; outsiders see this as a crack, but insiders see it as normal concrete shrinkage and settlement: a 15-fold year-over-year increase and a cumulative volume of 30 billion in the first eight months means this is not just a surface-level hype, but the entire foundation has been recast.
The new agreement on September 8th added equity—note, equity, not revenue sharing. This is the most important beam in my industry: land acquisition. Negotiating revenue sharing is just renting a storefront; taking equity means having your name engraved on the property deed. Then, completing the first IPO underwriting with the Euler deal is equivalent to a construction team that originally only built channels suddenly holding the design institute qualification, general contracting qualification, and the developer's funding pool all at once.
Four structural layers stacked together: crypto trading is the shear wall, prediction markets are the core tube, underwriting is the external steel structure corridor, and digital assets are the newly laid underground utility tunnels. The risks happen exactly at these joints—the settlement rates of the four systems are not synchronized, and the old broker's risk control reinforcement was calculated based on residential floor heights. Forcing it to bear the instantaneous impact loads from both crypto and prediction markets means the nodes will inevitably need to be chiseled open and reinforced again.
Regarding the token linkage on the US stock market side, don't just focus on the K-line; look at the elevation of its conversion layer—that is where the building's stress concentrates most. Whoever cuts corners there will be the first to hear the concrete cracking groan. #robinhoodcrypto61%surge300 Yuan Challenge to 30 Million | Day 90
Initial Capital: 300 Yuan
Current Total Assets: 2958.12 Yuan
Win Rate in Last 30 Days: 96.37%
Cumulative Withdrawals: 620.14 USDT
Earnings Details
Planet Posting Reward: 9 USDT
Creator Salary: 706.92 USDT
World Cup Event Reward: 43.33 USDT
Cumulative Copy Trading Income: 351.92 USDT + 23.98 USDT
$ETH 300 Yuan Challenge to 30 Million, now on Day 90.
$BTC Initially thought the weekend market would be flat, but the market suddenly weakened collectively; the entire crypto market mostly fell with few rises, mainstream and small-cap coins both under pressure, overall weak downward trend.
$BEAT This round of weekend widespread decline fully validated the pros and cons of my two trading models.
The iteratively improved Martingale system, refined through multiple market cycles, adapts well to volatile and weak markets, with very strong risk control and bottom-line protection. Even facing a broad market decline, it maintained steady operation, firmly holding the account base.
In contrast, manual positions exposed weaknesses during the sudden one-sided downturn, suffering significant losses, directly causing a phased drawdown in account net value, falling from previous highs to 2958.12 Yuan.
This is a very real and valuable lesson:
Martingale resists volatility, extremes, and provides stable bottom-line protection; manual trading follows rhythm, fears sudden moves, and avoids counter-trend.
beat stopped out two cents short, stop loss at 0.0791 retained, waiting quietly for take profit at 0.095 Monday's opening felt a bit uncomfortable.
I took a look this morning, and BTC has already dropped below 77,000, with ETH back around 2,480. Over the weekend, I thought things might stabilize today, but instead, the market opened with some pressure.
The biggest headache in the market right now is still the macro situation. Crude oil has surged above $100, and when energy prices rise, inflation expectations tend to increase. Coincidentally, the Fed's policy meeting is on Wednesday, and the market's expectation for a rate hike is already close to 90%.
So I think there's no need to fixate on a single candlestick today. What really matters is whether BTC can reclaim 77,000 and whether ETH can get back above 2,500.
I already have some short positions myself. For now, I'll just hold and watch, without adding to positions or making reckless moves. It's the first day of the week, so let's keep the pace steady.
Looks like this week will be interesting.
$BTC $ETH
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
Disclaimer: The above content is only personal opinions and trade reviews, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks, so trade cautiously!