Orbit Post Sitemap
On Friday, Trump discussed the ethics provisions related to his family's interests in the crypto bill with advisors
According to POLITICO Pro, U.S. President Trump held a closed-door meeting with advisors on Friday regarding the ethics provisions for government officials in the crypto bill "Clarity Act" proposed for Senate review. The bill will face a key procedural vote in the Senate next Tuesday. Senate Democrats are demanding the inclusion of ethics restrictions applicable to government officials in the bill to limit Trump's ability to profit from his family's crypto business. It is currently unclear who attended the meeting with Trump and what conclusions were reached.
Trump's senior crypto policy advisor Patrick Witt posted a positive signal on X on Saturday, saying, "Today is a bad day for the Clarity Act naysayers."
The ethics provisions have been one of the key obstacles for the CLARITY Act in the Senate, following clear partisan disagreements over whether enforcement authority should be led by the Department of Justice or state attorneys general. Next Tuesday's procedural vote will test whether the two parties can reach a compromise on this core dispute before the Senate recess.#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期
🔥A 0.1% CPI pushes the Federal Reserve to the edge of a cliff｜Next week's rate decision is the ultimate test
⚠️ Disclaimer: Sharing only macro logic, not investment advice
A single data table has silenced all market optimism.
Last week, the US August CPI was released:
• Overall CPI month-on-month 0.4%, in line with expectations
• Core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, expected 0.2%
Many don’t understand, isn’t it just 0.1 percentage points more?
But the market never looks at absolute size, only whether expectations are shattered.
This 0.1% shattered the strongest consensus that "inflation is steadily falling and the Fed will soon stop."
Result:
The probability of a 25bp rate hike in September surged overnight from around 70% to nearly 90%.
The market instantly repriced—dollar strengthened, US Treasury yields rose, gold first dropped then rebounded, risk assets came under pressure.
A marginal change of one-tenth of a percent triggered a complete shift in asset scenarios.
But don’t rush to "buy the rumor, sell the fact"—the trap lies here.
Many people’s habitual thinking is:
The probability is already 90%, the rate hike is certain, so the event is fully priced and the bad news is done.
This logic has a fatal flaw:
The market prices not only "whether to hike this time," but also "whether to continue hiking after this."
Three scenarios, three completely different outcomes:
🔴 Scenario A · Hike + hawkish dot plot
25bp hike delivered, but officials raise the expected number of hikes this year, Powell’s tone is tough.
→ US Treasury yields continue to rise, dollar strengthens further, gold and growth stocks remain under pressure.
→ This is the baseline scenario implied by current futures.
🟡 Scenario B · Hike + dovish speech
25bp hike delivered, but dot plot unchanged, Powell emphasizes "this is a one-time insurance hike to counter the rebound."
→ Marginal dovish shift after fully priced expectations, likely triggering "hike delivered, asset rebound," with room for gold and risk asset recovery.
🟢 Scenario C · No action but hawkish talk
No hike, but extremely hawkish statement, keeping all options open.
→ Most counterintuitive and scariest—the market will suspect the Fed sees risks we don’t.
So the real focus next week is: how Powell "explains" this hike.
• Is it a temporary, one-time operation to counter a single-month rebound?
• Or is inflation stickier than expected, requiring a restart of sustained tightening?
These two narratives will lead to vastly different pricing for gold, the dollar, US Treasuries, and crypto.
👀 Market watch · Suggested to focus on these four signals
1. Interest rate decision result (how much hike or cut, or no change)
2. Dot plot SEP—most critical incremental info, showing officials’ year-end rate expectations
3. Powell’s press conference tone: does he mention "inflation risks rising" or "keeping further rate hike options open"
4. Immediate market reaction after the meeting: sometimes news and price moves diverge, that’s the real signal
In summary
Don’t underestimate 0.1%.
Macro trading often doesn’t look at big trends but whether consensus is shattered by a key data point.
This CPI has done that; next week’s Fed meeting will show whether it repairs consensus or delivers another blow. Dead silent grind! Don't be fooled into entering by a small rebound!
The market looks calm now, but in reality, danger lurks everywhere!
CPI inflation remains high, and rate hike expectations weigh heavily overhead. Institutional funds are collectively lying low and watching, with no new capital entering the market at all.
BTC is trapped in the 76500‑77500 range, being pulled back and forth repeatedly. The slight rally looks tempting but is essentially just an oversold correction, not a trend reversal.
The cruelest is the altcoin market!
BTC stays flat, but small coins are quietly bleeding. With liquidity dried up, even a little selling pressure causes violent spikes, and slippage directly eats into your profits. Take coins like FLOCK, for example: in just twenty minutes, 10x leverage wiped out more than half the principal, leaving almost no chance to stop loss and escape.
Key levels to remember:
✅ Resistance: 77800‑78200
If it can't break through, every rally is a window to escape. Don't chase longs!
✅ Support: 76200
This is the short-term lifeline. Once effectively broken, a new round of panic selling will start immediately.
Speaking honestly from the heart:
Before the interest rate decision is finalized, there is no safe one-sided market.
Heavy bets in a choppy market mostly end with double liquidation back and forth.
Operate less, control your position size, don't hold losing positions, and preserving your principal is the top priority!
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #美国柴油价格首次突破6美元 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Darkfost said Bitcoin hasn't reached an all-time high for nearly 365 days. I checked the data he provided: in previous rounds, the days from the top to the new high were 1180, 1094, and 849 days respectively.
Back then, I believed the saying 'after the halving will hit a new high,' so I held it without moving. But this time, the pattern changed first—the price didn't keep up, and my position couldn't hold on.
It's true that the pattern is shortened, but that's something you can see in hindsight—it doesn't mean this time will definitely be faster. The April 2028 halving is still far too early; using this as a reason to add positions now is too hasty.
The lesson of the old chives is simple: don't use historical intervals as alarm clocks; the market won't follow your schedule.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4 50 million USD
#加密财库分化: Buy coins or buy back? #ZEC机构资金入场, high-level leverage began to clear $BTC Who else?
Who else thinks ZEC can hold at 1100?
Watching the market on Sunday, this is the only question in my mind.
From 1296 down to 1080, a 13% drop, over 2 billion USD market cap evaporated.
The NU7 governance vote ends tomorrow, proposing to replace halving with smooth issuance.
Passing is a long-term positive, failure means short-term sell-off.
But regardless of the outcome, the market has already voted with its feet in advance.
Good news being realized is bad news, good news falling through is even worse.
More importantly, the Fed's interest rate meeting is next week.
The probability of a rate hike is approaching 90%, core CPI and PPI all exceeding expectations.
What does a rate hike mean for a high-volatility asset like ZEC?
Rising funding costs, increased risk aversion, speculative funds retreat immediately.
The fear and greed index is still at 60, in the greed zone.
The market is not panicking yet, indicating the drop is not complete.
The real bottom is always hammered out, not ground out.
1100 is just a thin paper; breaking below means a continuous fall.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% After BTC spiked to 76K last Friday, it immediately rebounded close to 80K
But then gave back gains over the weekend. Next week is packed with major events
On Tuesday, a clear procedural vote on the bill is expected by the market to most likely fail
But if it unexpectedly passes, it would be a major positive; the current market has already priced in the negative
The real boss move is at 2 AM Thursday
The Fed rate decision has nearly a 90% chance of a 25bp hike
War, energy disruptions, and stubborn inflation make a simple rate hike unsurprising
The real key is the dot plot—if it shows another hike within the year in December
That would mean repricing for higher rates lasting longer, which would hit crypto hard
Another big risk is the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5%, which is extremely dangerous
Currently, US Treasury buying depends on institutional and private funds
They buy because of high returns
But if 5% holds, it means risk-free yields rise
Corporate financing costs increase, and volatile assets like BTC will suffer
Which big capital doesn’t love risk-free returns?
So next week, watch out not just for a single 25bp hike
But for the dot plot and the 10-year Treasury yield
These are the real variables deciding BTC’s fate. #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 $BTC BTC this week seems squeezed into a narrow box between 76000 and 78000, with daily volatility under 1%. Some say the main players are distributing, but I think the whales are just off-duty on vacation. On the options side, $40.8 billion in open interest is pressing down, with strike prices densely packed between 78000 and 81000. Bulls and bears form two rows of fences, locking the price in place. Market makers inherently hate volatility; any slight price twitch forces hedging, and the more they hedge, the more powerless they become. 74% of the chips are still held by long-term holders, so the price can't drop deeply nor rally strongly. The greed index has surged to 63, sentiment is hot, but the candlesticks are cold—this kind of tension often signals a turning point. Next Wednesday is the FOMC; Goldman Sachs revised its rate hike forecast to 25 basis points, with the market betting 79% on it. Bad news might trigger a rebound, but an actual rate hike could break below 76000. I’m not guessing the direction; I’m holding my position and waiting to hear the bell early Thursday morning. $BTC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $FIL
FIL's surge today is driven less by a single "positive" factor and more by the combined effect of a supply-side structural shift and the AI narrative converging in a critical time window.
🚀 Core Catalyst: Supply Side Faces a "Hard Landing"
The most direct positive comes from structural changes in the token economic model:
· Cliff Unlock Ends on October 15: The token vesting schedule for Protocol Labs and early investors will conclude then. At that time, FIL's annual new issuance is expected to drop sharply by about 75% (from approximately 88 million to about 22 million), effectively drying up the long-term selling pressure source.
· FIP-0118 (Solstice) Proposal: This proposal has been approved and plans to link block rewards to measurable paid demand. If network paid usage falls short, part of the rewards will be burned instead of distributed, further reinforcing deflationary expectations.
📈 Narrative Alignment: "Cost Anxiety" of AI Storage
As the market looks for hype reasons, Filecoin's AI storage narrative provides the material. Recent analysis points out that the AI arms race has caused enterprise-grade SSD and memory costs to soar (expected increase of 235%-270%), while Filecoin has a large deployed storage capacity already in place, seen as an alternative to hedge against hardware inflation.
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 A trader put almost all available cash into $PONS and $BNB, both weakening simultaneously. The account grew from 7u to 3300u, and after deducting 1400u for living expenses, the available funds are just over 1900u, yet the position remains concentrated and unchanged. 🧐 What is noteworthy is not the unrealized loss itself, but that he had already made considerable profits on PONS contract long positions and $BTC long positions before, choosing to add to his positions rather than take profits. This indicates that this round of pullback comes from an active decision to "further increase exposure on profitable positions," rather than being passively trapped. Mechanically, when a single narrative token and mainstream coins fall in the same direction, the diversification effect of the portfolio almost fails, margin pressure is amplified synchronously, and sharing the same pool for living and trading funds further compresses the margin for error. His response is to increase content production and promote meme dissemination to expand principal size, betting on an opportunity to "change the situation" in the coming months. Here, two interpretations need to be distinguished: one sees it as a high-conviction concentrated bet, the other sees gaps in liquidity management and position discipline. Against the backdrop of multiple institutions raising September rate hike expectations after PPI and CPI releases, macro liquidity expectations tighten, risk assets face more pressure, and volatility of concentrated holdings will be further amplified.
Risk warning: The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please independently assess your own risk tolerance.The CLARITY Act carries limited direct upside for $BTC , since its commodity status is already largely settled.
The real impact is indirect: a clear regulatory framework across the broader crypto market tends to boost institutional confidence, drawing more capital into the space overall.
If cloture passes on September 15, expect $BTC to benefit as a byproduct of a healthier, more legitimized market rather than as CLARITY's primary target.Adobe $ADBE's latest earnings report highlights a standout 1 billion monthly active users and a new quarterly revenue record of $6.76 billion, with operating cash flow reaching $2.52 billion, also setting a record for the third quarter. However, from an overall perspective, this earnings report combined with the guidance can be described as mixed: Adobe's revenue forecast for Q4 is $6.8 billion to $6.85 billion. This quarter already achieved $6.76 billion, meaning the next quarter is only expected to increase by $40 million to $90 million quarter-over-quarter; taking the midpoint, that's about a $65 million increase. For a company with nearly $7 billion in quarterly revenue, $65 million growth is not nonexistent but is indeed a very small portion, especially when comparing the third and fourth quarters of the past two years, revealing that this incremental expectation is quite conservative. Especially since Adobe's core metrics have actually all exceeded market expectations, the post-earnings downward trend (after-hours plus regular trading) was mainly attributed by the market to the Q4 guidance not being impressive enough, which triggered the stock price drop that day. Image source BITStock. However, during the next day's regular trading session, Adobe rebounded again, so the market reaction to this earnings report is not simply a "poor performance → stock price drop" story. This earnings analysis will combine data to review and summarize: 1. Where is the problem with the lower part of this expectation? Expanding further on the single-quarter changes mentioned above, it will be found that in the same period of the previous two years... $UNI ~ The core logic behind this round of price increase is that the narrative of "real income driving token deflation" has been verified for the first time in on-chain data. The market is re-pricing this former "governance token," viewing it as an asset supported by actual cash flow. However, whether this can be sustained depends crucially on whether the trading volume on Robinhood Chain can be maintained and whether the burn rate can remain stable.BNKR: Base Alpha I've recently started following
I've recently started researching BankrCoin (BNKR).
What attracts me is not the AI concept itself, but that it has already begun to connect several things:
AI Agent + Base + Aerodrome + Tokenized Stocks
More importantly, Bankr already has real protocol revenue, and part of the fees will be used for BNKR buyback / protocol-owned liquidity.
So BNKR is not entirely an "AI Meme," but is trying to form:
Product usage → Fees → Buyback → BNKR
Currently, the market cap is still not large.
#BNKR #Base #Aerodrome #AI #Alpha 1️⃣ BTC enters a critical consolidation phase
BTC stayed around $77,000 over the weekend, and after a previous rebound, it still failed to effectively break above $80,000. CryptoQuant believes BTC needs to hold above $81,700 to further confirm an improved trend; Currently, it seems more like a high-level consolidation rather than a confirmed new round of breakouts. 2️⃣ ETF funds show clear divergence
As of September 11, spot BTC ETFs had net outflows for the fourth consecutive trading day, about $13.29 million in a single day; Over the past four trading days, cumulative outflows totaled about $463 million. In contrast, ETH ETFs had a single-day net inflow of about $216 million, with institutional funds clearly more biased toward ETH. 3️⃣ Macroeconomics have once again become the core variable
Oil prices and inflationary pressures continue to affect risk assets, and the market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate plans to advance a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15, and policy expectations may also amplify market volatility 🧠 BIG PICTURE
The biggest change now isn't "whether BTC will rise," but rather the divergence of funds: BTC ETFs are under pressure, while ETH continues to attract funds. This means risk appetite within the market is being repriced. 👀 Watch for the next 24 hours: Can BTC climb back above $80,000, whether ETH ETF inflows will continue, and news about the Federal Reserve and the CLARITY Act on September 15. What do you think will be the main focus for the next phase?#英伟达拟向Anthropic投资最高100亿美元
NVIDIA's role as a cornerstone investor in Anthropic's IPO is still under discussion and not finalized. Anthropic plans to raise up to 100 billion with a target valuation of 2 trillion; the scale and pricing have not been set. The two companies' businesses have long been linked—Anthropic has committed to purchasing about 30 billion worth of Microsoft Azure computing power, which is based on NVIDIA chips. Jensen Huang has responded to concerns about circular financing, emphasizing that there is real customer demand behind it.
Compared to the telecom equipment cycle from 1999 to 2001, when Lucent and Nortel lent money to operators to buy their own equipment to make their financials look good, but when operators' cash flow dried up, the bad debts fell back on them. The difference here is that computing power is truly consumed, and AI companies do have paying customers; it is not just pure accounting circulation.
My own feeling is that the most dangerous aspect of this model is not the "circular" nature but the "pace." Whether Anthropic's revenue can keep up with the spending pace of the 30 billion computing power commitment is the key to the entire chain. If revenue lags too far behind spending, then NVIDIA's invested money, the chips sold, and the computing power commitments will end up being the same thing recorded in three places. Just watch three numbers: Anthropic's revenue growth, the proportion of revenue from investment targets in NVIDIA's financial reports, and how far the IPO final pricing is from the 2 trillion target. The first two are the substance, the third is the appearance; when the substance can't hold up, the appearance will collapse first.
$xNVDA $NVDA Recently, many friends have privately messaged complaining: their overall market direction judgment was correct, but they were stopped out by a sudden spike in the middle, and afterward, the market moved exactly as they predicted, which is very frustrating.
$ETH often shows fake breakdowns of support during intraday trading, quickly rebounding after sweeping out dense stop losses below; many people set their stop losses too tight, just within the main force's shakeout range.
$ZEC has even larger volatility, with sudden spikes of hundreds of points in the short term, leaving no room for error under high leverage.
Within Bitcoin's consolidation range, the main players clearly know the common stop loss positions of retail traders and use short-term sentiment to quickly dump and pump the market to shake out positions.
Small-cap coins have even more unpredictable spikes that can instantly blow up high-leverage positions.
Many times, it's not that your market direction is wrong, but your position size and stop loss are not adapted to the current consolidation market. In chaotic markets, high leverage + tight stop loss ≈ actively paying fees to the market. During consolidation phases, appropriately loosening stop losses and reducing leverage will feel much better.
Question: Have you recently been stopped out by a spike?
#ContractRiskControl #AvoidSpikeTrapsWhat is truly worth being cautious about is not the recent ups and downs over the past two days, but the obvious divergence in capital flow.
Currently, BTC is repeatedly tugging between 77,000 and 80,000, and the overall market still belongs to a high-volatility oscillation. Recently, macro pressures have clearly intensified: oil prices are rising, inflation concerns are resurfacing, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week is the biggest variable, with rate expectations suppressing risk assets.
From the capital perspective, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous outflows recently, indicating that institutions are not in a hurry to chase highs in the short term; however, weekly capital inflows have remained strong previously, showing that mid-term funds have not completely withdrawn.
ETH, on the other hand, has shown some interesting capital signals. On September 11, the ETH ETF attracted about $216 million in a single day, while BTC continued to see outflows during the same period, indicating that institutional funds are undergoing a phase shift from "BTC→ETH."
Technically, the most important thing for ETH right now is not chasing the rally, but observing whether the pullback after the breakout can hold. If capital continues to flow in, ETH may become the main theme stronger than BTC in the next phase; conversely, if ETF inflows rapidly decline, the risk of a sharp pullback will also be significant.
Hot topics: The current biggest main theme remains the Federal Reserve + interest rates + ETF capital flows, followed by the ETH staking ETF narrative. Before this week's interest rate decision, the market is expected to continue to experience intense volatility, making structural trading more important than guessing direction.
In short: BTC watches the macro environment, ETH watches the capital flow; the real big market move this week may come after the Federal Reserve. Many beginners are confused: the market fluctuates every day, so why do many experienced traders often simply stay out and observe.
After several rounds of back-and-forth with $ETH, only those who can hold their positions can keep profits; frequent position adjustments often lead to losses on both sides.
$ZEC occasionally experiences large swings, but such opportunities are very rare and do not happen every day. Forcing yourself to trade daily will only continuously drain your capital.
Before the macro environment settles, Bitcoin is in a zero-sum game with very deceptive ups and downs and no stable trend.
Small-cap coins are entirely driven by sentiment; most rallies are short-term capital moves, making it very difficult for ordinary people to accurately time entry and exit points.
Trading is not like clocking in at work; you don’t need to open a trade every day to prove you’re active. Without high-certainty opportunities, waiting and observing is itself a strategy. Enduring the silence and waiting for clear market conditions after the dust settles will greatly increase your winning rate.CPI came in hotter than expected, and the market has pushed the probability of a #Fed rate hike next week to about 90%. Oil prices surged then retreated, while US stocks rebounded on Friday.
Bitcoin surged then pulled back, currently consolidating around 77,200. Ethereum is relatively stronger, with large single-day inflows into ETH ETFs, while BTC ETFs have seen outflows this week. The decisions from Monday to Wednesday next week will be a joint catalyst.
This round of rate hike expectations seems largely priced in, so the market performance has been relatively stable.
But it can't be ruled out that this is a smokescreen—when the decision actually lands, a big bearish candle could still trigger panic and crashes.
So remain cautious and objective; don’t go all-in.
The usual rule remains: add to your position on pullbacks and declines—small dips, small adds; big drops, big adds.
Looking at a longer timeline, the odds and payoff of adding now are not bad.
Are you waiting for the decision before acting, or will you follow your plan and buy in batches now? The biggest trap in the recent market is frequent false breakouts. Bitcoin pumps up and then dumps; many rush to go long after seeing a bullish candle and panic sell after a big bearish candle.
$ETH repeatedly tests the upper and lower bounds of the range, switching between bull and bear traps. In a volatile market, the worst thing is to suddenly change your original plan.
$ZEC has large price swings; short-term swings look tempting, but high leverage has very low tolerance for errors—one reverse spike can wipe out all profits.
Currently, all Bitcoin moves are digesting interest rate expectations in advance, repeatedly washing out short-term positions without forming a clear trend. The main players deliberately use sharp rallies and drops to disrupt retail traders' psychology.
Small-cap coins rotate hotspots very quickly, with many intraday moves; a coin that surges one day can be crushed the next, so chasing hotspots usually means taking the bag.
This week, be sure to avoid three traps:
1. Impulsively opening positions after seeing a single bullish candle;
2. Being greedy after profits and unwilling to take partial profits and exit;
3. Continuously adding to losing positions to average down costs.
Before the market clarifies, reducing position size and controlling your actions is the best strategy.
Question: Will you proactively reduce your trading frequency during this interest rate week?
#InterestRateWeekMarket #VolatilityRiskControl24 hours. $41.56M. One privacy coin.
A #whale accumulated 36,360 $ZEC in six days, withdrawing heavily from exchanges including #OKX. Now another clock is running: #Zcash’s NU7 vote closes Sept. 14 at 19:00 UTC, with issuance mechanics and protocol scope on the ballot.
$ZEC isn’t trading around one catalyst. It has a #whale and a #deadline.
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% $BTC → scarcity that compounds into monetary strength.
$ETH → liquidity that compounds into financial infrastructure.
$SOL → activity that compounds into powerful network effects.
$BTC strengthens as more capital treats it as neutral collateral.
$ETH becomes harder to displace as stablecoins, DeFi, and applications keep building around its settlement layer.
$SOL is turning cheap, fast execution into a moat for high-frequency on-chain activity.
Three different paths. White House signals, bill heats up: BTC sentiment leads, liquidity not yet arrived
The White House is optimistic about the September 15 vote on the crypto clarity bill. Coinbase reports increased Senate support votes, with 10 Democrats possibly voting in favor. Legislative expectations are the biggest short-term catalyst. The community is not unanimous: 38% bullish, 40% neutral, 22% bearish.
Funds show long-term flavor: Morgan Stanley MSBT increased holdings by 641.87 BTC in two weeks; Metaplanet plans to establish a BTC trading subsidiary in Hong Kong; a certain whale bought 1,075.6 BTC with 85.42 million USDC over four days; institutions participate in BTC staking rounds, infrastructure expanding. But institutional buying is allocation, not hot money.
Contradictions unresolved: macro liquidity has not substantially improved, US Treasury yields remain high, rate cut expectations are still weak. This round is event-driven, buying the expectation and selling the fact. White House optimism is only an administrative attitude; the Senate decides, and the 60-vote threshold still has uncertainties. If the vote falls short of expectations, speculative funds will withdraw.
Market: ETH is more sensitive to the bill, prone to impulsive spikes and pullbacks; BTC follows sentiment, relatively stable. The community is watching, with the highest neutral proportion, waiting for the vote outcome.
Projection: if the procedural vote passes, BTC and sector sentiment will rebound; if it fails, this rebound will most likely end. Do not overweight positions prematurely; watch for lawmakers' statements before the vote. Without macro liquidity improvement, a major bull market is unlikely.
$BTC ##OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 I planned to take it easy for the weekend, but the market didn't give any peace, each one messing with my mindset more than the last.
(ー_ー)!!
$BTC 76,989, dropped below 77,000, down 0.42%. Garrett Jin poured cold water: the longer the bottoming process, the more likely it will break below 76,500; to strengthen, it needs to at least hold above 78,300. I placed a small order below 76,500, hands shaking; this level looks cheap but could also be halfway up the mountain.
(´╥ω╥`)
$ETH 2,498, fell below 2,500, down 1.16%. Short-term support at 2,470-2,480, then a second line at 2,430-2,450. The key weekly level at 2,550 was not held, gains might retrace to 2,400. No position, waiting for direction.
\( ͯω ͯ)/
$ZEC crashed from a high of 1,293 straight down to 1,055, a 13% plunge, with 28.37 million liquidated in 24 hours, of which 23.75 million were longs. The crazier it went up, the worse it falls. But now it’s hovering between 1,110-1,155; 1,100 was the level buyers defended on Friday. I'm staying out; last time I found watching it fall more comfortable than watching it rise, same this time.
Next week, the FOMC rate hike probability is up to 90%, Monday is the real game. Positions are light, waiting to see the reaction at open.
Are you guys buying in tomorrow or watching?
( ・ω・)o-What concerns me most about ETH right now is not the price fluctuations
$ETH is currently around 2,530.
ETH has been quite interesting these past few days. It quickly surged from around 2,400 to above 2,600, and now it has pulled back to consolidate. More importantly, there has been a recent shift in capital flow—on September 11, the spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of about $216 million in a single day, while the BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of approximately $13 million during the same period.
So when I look at ETH, I’m reluctant to simply interpret it as "it’s going to fall because it’s risen too much."
Technically, the area around 2,500 is a key level I’m watching. Holding steady here would indicate that the previous rise still has support; if it can firmly hold above around 2,560 again, I would start targeting 2,600 or even higher. Conversely, if it can’t hold 2,500, then in the short term we need to be cautious about further downward moves to find support.
My personal feeling is that ETH is more interesting now than it was a while ago, but it’s still not at a point where you can blindly chase it. Blizzard all around, a lonely temple with a cold lamp, a long spear slung over the shoulder.
This is Lin Chong at the Mountain God Temple in the Water Margin during a snowy night.
Lin Chong's life was full of endurance and retreat at every step.
He sought safety in the hayfield, only wanting to quietly survive the harsh winter.
But fate is unpredictable, and disaster still comes knocking.
In the crypto world, many traders live like a modern-day Lin Chong.
When the market pulls back, they tell themselves: it's just a brief snowstorm, once it passes, they can hold their heads high again.
Positions get stuck, unwilling to exit, continuously holding on, hoping for a market rebound to break even.
They always think that by stepping back and enduring, they can wait for the clouds to clear and the moon to shine.
But reality is often like this heavy snowfall.
Interest rate hike expectations, geopolitical conflicts, sudden sharp drops—wave after wave of bad news hits.
The "support base" you hold onto in your heart is mercilessly pierced by the market in an instant.
It wasn't until the snowy night at the Mountain God Temple that Lin Chong completely saw through the illusion.
Endurance does not earn kindness; holding on does not save a trapped position.
The crypto market's blizzard does not care about your expectations, and the candlesticks will not pity those with floating losses.
When the heavy snow seals the mountain, do not stubbornly hold your ground.
Cut losses and exit when necessary to preserve your capital; only after the storm clears will you be qualified to wait for the next market cycle.
The blizzard in the world of trading is always present; surviving is the only way to see another day. #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 ⚡ $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | THREE DEMAND ENGINES
$BTC → demand to hold.
$ETH → demand to use and settle.
$SOL → demand to execute at scale.
That creates three very different paths to value.
Scarcity drives Bitcoin.
Economic activity drives Ethereum.
Throughput and adoption drive Solana.
Different engines. Different risks. Different opportunities. 🧠
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow $OKB has returned to around 113, which is somewhat intriguing.
OKB/USDT is currently around 113.4. In the past few days, it hasn't really dropped significantly, but it also hasn't truly broken through the 115 and 118 levels.
I actually think this kind of movement deserves a closer look.
According to OKX data, OKB once surged to around 118, then fell back to about 113. Now, in the short term, it seems more like it's digesting the previous gains.
I'm paying attention to two levels: around 110 as support below, and 115–118 as resistance above.
If volume picks up and it can reclaim 115, the market might become active again; but if it keeps hovering around 113 and eventually can't hold 110, I won't force any bullish reasons for it.
For a coin like OKB, I’m actually less inclined to chase the candlestick patterns now. Whether it can firmly hold 115 again is more important than just rising a few points.$ALGO hasn't made the move some of these other coins have and that might be the point.
RSI neutral, EMA20 above EMA50, third test of the 0.098-0.101 resistance zone after two August rejections. Support sits at 0.0865, right where the trendline and EMA50 line up.
Third tests either break clean or build the strongest base yet. Watching which one this is.Unexpectedly, brothers, $ZEC stopped rallying and fell below 1100 today. The follow-up is a bit uncertain; it feels like it wants to crash down. I don't know if I can still hold this long position.
Looking at the market, ZEC has dropped from a high of 1295 down to around 1080, a decline of over 5% in 24 hours. The previous rebound didn't continue, and now it has directly broken below the psychological level of 1100. The long-short ratio shows bears are still adding positions, with heavy selling pressure above. The short-term trend is clearly weak. Technically, 1050-1080 is the previous support zone; if it can't hold here, the next target is the 1000 mark.
My long position average entry price is 1085.49. I previously had a 14% floating profit, but now it has retraced back near the cost line, so I'm really uncertain. Should I keep holding? I'm afraid it will directly crash through 1000; if I cut losses, I'm afraid it will suddenly rally back like before and leave me behind.
Having repaired cars for ten years, I understand this too well. This kind of indecisive position is the most frustrating, just like an unstable engine idle—you never know if it will stall or suddenly surge next second. Since I've held on this far, I’ve decided to hold a bit longer, setting a stop loss below 1050. If it breaks, I’ll accept the loss; if not, I’ll wait for it to give me a good move.
Brothers, I’ll wait a bit longer to see if this long position will rally. If not, I’ll switch more to short.
$BTC
$ETH
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 $XRP is sitting near $1.35 while volatility keeps falling ahead of two major catalysts: the CLARITY Act and the next Fed decision. The strange part? Price is quiet while event risk is rising. A volatility expansion could be more interesting than guessing the direction. Which side breaks first?This is not a pullback; this is performing CPR on my empty account. When the screen is full of green, others are running, but I'm thinking $CP is weak on the upside, with obvious resistance above and no volume breakout, heavy with bull trap vibes. This kind of rebound is made for shorting. I entered short at 0.04261 when the market was just crashing in the morning; now it's 0.01337. Checking my account shows +1372.91%. Feeling good, brothers, this profit is satisfying. Take profits when you should, pocket the big gains first, set the rest to breakeven, let it fall, don't give back your profits. Money earned is the realization of knowledge; money lost is a flaw in understanding. Don't be greedy for the last bite; shorting now is risky. Wait for the next structural setup to decide.
$DOGE $BTC Aerospace giant aims for 100 billion, can meme and RWA ride the wave? 🚀
#SpaceXCFO expresses confidence in achieving $100 billion ARR
$BTC at 77270, nearly 450 million net outflow from spot ETFs in the past three days, institutions reducing positions, but whales have bought 1075 coins in 4 days at an average price of 79412. There is support below 77,000, with price stuck between 77,000 and 77,500. Today SpaceX said it is confident to reach 100 billion ARR, boosting tech aerospace sentiment and warming market risk appetite.
$DOGE at 0.085, a meme sentiment coin, moves first when risk appetite returns. It rose 3% over the weekend. The 0.086 to 0.09 range is full of trapped positions. Driven purely by capital sentiment, it rises fast and falls fast. Play small positions, no big moves.
$RE at 0.45, a small DeFi insurance RWA, rose 3.33% today, channeling stablecoin funds into real insurance risks. But with a market cap of only 71 million and volume of 5 million, it doesn’t fit the aerospace story. It profits from RWA sector rotation money, but the market is too thin for anything more than very small positions.
SpaceX’s 100 billion target is an aerospace industry matter. DOGE just rides the risk appetite wave, RE is unrelated. Don’t force aerospace sentiment onto meme coins. Play DOGE small, watch RE for sector trends.$BTC may face the most exciting week of the year next week!
On September 15, first watch the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act;
On September 16, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will follow immediately;
On September 18, the Bank of Japan will have another session.
Regulation, interest rates, and yen liquidity—these three factors collide consecutively, making it hard for the market not to experience intense volatility.
The first hurdle is the CLARITY Act.
Currently, market expectations are not optimistic, so if it really doesn't advance, that might not be the biggest negative. The real damage would be if it suddenly passes smoothly—that's the real expectation gap.
The second hurdle is the Federal Reserve.
The market already has strong expectations about the policy path; what really determines the market movement is not "whether they hold the meeting," but whether the final outcome and the chair's wording exceed market pricing.
If hawkish, risk assets will continue to be under pressure;
If clearly dovish, once liquidity expectations ease, high-beta assets like BTC can easily surge first.
The third hurdle is the Bank of Japan.
What’s most worth watching in Japan is not whether they raise rates, but the attitude toward subsequent policies after the meeting.
If a stronger tightening signal is released, the yen carry trade will continue to unwind, and global funds may be forced to deleverage; conversely, if the attitude is more moderate than expected, risk assets can catch a breather.
So I think the real danger next week is not any single event.
It’s the consecutive occurrence of expectation gaps across these three events.
At times like this, BTC often doesn’t move slowly but directly amplifies volatility.The current price 0.0659 is hugging the lower Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart. Below, from 0.0644 to 0.0648, there is a row of passive buy orders supporting it, but above, from 0.0672 to 0.0683, dense selling pressure is suppressing any rebound.
Just finished selling an old small sixth-floor unit, catching my breath and glancing at the intraday chart. This kind of volume-less slow decline is the most exhausting.
On the naked K-line, two consecutive long lower shadows have both held at 0.0643, but the rebound highs have dropped from 0.0678 to 0.0671, with bulls getting weaker each time. Contract open interest is still slightly declining, indicating no new money is coming in to take over. As long as it can't close above 0.0672 with volume, the trend will continue to slowly decline and test new lows.
In terms of trading, don't chase highs. Lightly buy on dips between 0.0645 and 0.0651, set stop loss at 0.0630, and take profit first at 0.0680. Reduce positions again if it rises to 0.0702.
If the four-hour close falls below 0.0630, exit all long positions and reverse to short, targeting 0.0608 to 0.0596.
$STEEM
#美国柴油价格首次突破6美元
@OKX星球 #OpenAICEO states no IPO in 2026
OpenAI postpones 2026 IPO, AI capital rhythm changes
Latest data
Altman publicly stated that due to AI safety considerations, the IPO will not be pushed forward in 2026. The market shows $BTC at 74210, with little fluctuation in the overall market. AI concept-related tokens have slightly weakened, and market funds remain focused on US Treasury yields and inflation data, with overall trading volume relatively light.
Market consensus
Some believe that without a trillion-level IPO as an emotional anchor, the AI sector's short-term heat will cool down, and thematic stocks will continue to face pressure;
Others argue that without the pressure of quarterly earnings from a listed company, enterprises can focus deeply on technology implementation, which is beneficial for the industry's healthy long-term development.
Underlying logic analysis
Once listed, companies will be bound by secondary market performance requirements and forced to prioritize revenue growth. Delaying the IPO essentially places AI safety ahead of short-term capital gains. This news mainly affects thematic sentiment; the real determinant of the crypto market trend remains the macro interest rate environment. Single industry news is unlikely to reverse the overall market direction.
Personal view (personally inclined to a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Do not overemphasize the impact of this event; thematic volatility is only suitable for short-term speculation. At this stage, it is still best to control position sizes and wait for clearer signals from the macro side. [One-sentence conclusion] Against the backdrop of simultaneous weakness in BTC and ETH, FIL bucked the trend and rose 13% in a single day to $0.916, hitting a new 60-day high, driving about a 75% decrease in annualized gross issuance from the linear release expiration of Protocol Labs and Filecoin Foundation on October 15; This is a definite supply event, but the massive surge of 4.64 million tokens in one hour at the close clearly overloaded the short-term market. Whether 0.9242 can hold steady with increased volume will determine whether this is the start of a trend or another impulse. 1. Today's Review: An Independent Market Amid Market Decline Let's start with the most glaring set of numbers. On September 13 Beijing time, FIL surged from a 24-hour low of $0.7966 to $0.9242, a gain of 16.0% over the range, and finally closed near $0.9158, up 13.2% in 24 hours. At the same time, BTC was at $77,175, down 0.36%, and ETH was at $2,492, down 1.89%. In other words, FIL's gain today was not beta following the market but pure active long buying by capital, a typical alpha market. There are two features in the intraday structure worth highlighting separately. First is the rhythm of the rally: at 16:00 Beijing time, FIL was still testing around $0.80, and volume started at 18:00$FIL 2026-10-15 At block height 6457200, the Protocol Labs team foundation's 6-year linear unlock will be completely finished.
This will cause the total annual new release amount across the entire network to directly drop by 75%. FIL miner rewards follow a simple 6-year halving model; this is the first time reaching the 6-year node, after which the theoretical 6-year decay continues. The smooth decay mode begins (constantly decreasing, not a sudden halving on a specific day).
The first halving, combined with the active full unlock mode, may lead to a new upward surge.
The chart below shows that on April 5, 2021, the first batch of 6-month SAFT investors' unlock was fully completed. Starting around March until 4 days before the unlock, the price rose from 30-50 to 238.
Of course, historically, there was also a price surge around October 15, 2020.
The October 15, 2021 unlock from 49 to 77 can be considered an oversold rebound.Exactly. And here is a very thought-provoking paradox in the market: The richest people are not necessarily the most active traders — but often those who know when NOT to trade. Trading a lot creates the feeling of being in control. But wealth is usually created by: Patience when the market has not yet recognized value. Disciplined accumulation instead of chasing emotions. Holding long enough for major trends to take effect. Risk management to avoid being knocked out of the game. And most importantly: knowing when to stay out of the market FOMC 2-Day Countdown: Bulls Washed Out, ETH Falls Below 2500
$BTC **: about 76,627.24h-0.88%. **$ETH: about 2,471.24h-2.41%, lost 2,500.
Leverage clearing. In the past 24 hours, $105 million was liquidated, with long positions accounting for 83% (87.91 million), and short positions only 17.57 million. ETH liquidations reached 46.56 million, while BTC was 22.88 million. The Panic and Greed Index is 60, in the greed range, but has fallen for two consecutive days.
Liquidation distribution. If BTC falls below 73,486, the long liquidation strength is 807 million; if it breaks 80,596, the short liquidation strength is 909 million.
ETF divergence continues. BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 462.7 million last week, marking four consecutive days of outflows; ETH ETFs had a net inflow of 196.6 million, marking four consecutive weeks of net inflows, with BlackRock ETHA contributing 148.8 million. ETH exchange reserves fell to 14.88 million coins, a multi-year low, with about 35.9% of circulating supply staking.
Two events overlapping. The probability of a rate hike in September is about 90%, FOMC on September 15-16. On the same day, the Senate will vote on the "Clarity Act" in a procedural vote, requiring 60 votes, with uncertain chances of passage.
Operation: Wait-and-see ahead of FOMC. BTC 76,000 support under pressure, ETH is focused on liquidation risk of 645 million orders below 2,409. Before events unfold, position position matters more than direction. #PPI. After CPI release, many institutions raised their expectations for September rate hikes Apple's market value returns to global No.1 🔥
It's not that Apple suddenly transformed, but that Nvidia's AI spending expectations have cooled down.
$AAPL, with a base of 250 million devices, service revenue, foldable screens + Apple Intelligence expectations, has become a certainty for capital as a safe haven.
$NVDA's fundamentals are not bad, but the market is starting to scrutinize the trillion-dollar AI capital expenditure's acceptance and return cycle.
Market logic shifts: from valuing dreams to pricing cash flow.
Apple wins by being steady, without crazily spending on building computing power centers; Nvidia's early expectations were overdrawn, putting pressure on its valuation.
The AI track is not over, but capital no longer blindly chases shovel stocks.
Strategy: Apple can be seen as a slow bull if the pullback doesn't break the trend; Nvidia should be considered for additional positions once capital expenditure expectations become clear.
#苹果公司市值重回全球首位，超越英伟达
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #CLARITY法案9月15日闯关, 60 votes are key. Many people think the passage of the CLARITY Act = $BTC surge, and knockoffs take off. But it's not that simple. What the market is really betting on this time is: will the U.S. officially end the crypto era of "not knowing who the SEC will sue tomorrow today". On September 15, the Senate will hold a key procedural vote, requiring 60 votes to proceed. But the current situation is not optimistic: although the latest version incorporates 114 Democratic proposals, the market's predicted approval probability is still only about 19%, because issues like AML, official conflicts of interest, DeFi regulation, and stablecoin yields remain unresolved. So, this is not a vote where "good news is already set," but a true game of expectations. 1. BTC may not be the biggest winner CLARITY's biggest role is to clarify who controls digital assets, how to manage them, and the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. It sounds dull, but in plain terms: from now on, exchanges won't have to guess every day: if this coin goes up today, will it receive a lawyer's letter tomorrow? BTC actually doesn't lack that much. ETFs already exist, institutions have bought them, and listed companies hoarding BTC are almost forming an industry chain. What BTC lacks now is new capital, not a "Are you legal?" ID card. So CLARITY is certainly a long-term positive for BTC, but it may not be the biggest beneficiary in the short term. The ones that might truly be revalued are actually those things#US diesel prices break $6 for the first time
My mid-term intelligence guy says first: Don’t just watch the public curse gasoline, the real choke point is diesel.
US diesel breaking $6 per gallon is not due to strong demand, but supply issues: US and Iran have disrupted Middle East oil flows, Ukraine has taken out Russian refineries, Russia has limited diesel exports, global distillate inventories are paper-thin, US refineries are running at nearly 98% capacity, no spare capacity to refine more.
Trucks, trains, farm machinery, ports, and heating all run on diesel. When oil prices rise, it first eats into truck drivers’ profits, then fuel surcharges kick in, and finally vegetable prices, meat prices, and building material prices all go up—you don’t drive a diesel vehicle, but you can’t escape the diesel tax.
In the mid-term view, this is not a short-term pullback pulse, but a tightening of four forces: geopolitics + refining capacity shortage + autumn harvest + holiday freight.
Inflation is not under control, the Federal Reserve finds it hard to ease, and the White House is more pressured before the midterm elections.
Conclusion: Diesel breaking $6 is not just an oil price story, it’s a cost alarm for the US real economy. And $BTC is closely related to oil prices!
$ETH $PONS This is not a rebound; it's like inserting a root canal for accounts about to break.
Yesterday afternoon, PONS lacked support, with heavy bull trap signals and obvious resistance above. The bearish warning was to wait for it to deflate. PONS dropped from 0.5930 to 0.5399, short positions gained +179.42%, feeling good brothers, this rhythm was nailed.
Take profit on 80% first, protect the remaining 20% at cost price, and when it rebounds, don't give back the profits. Secure gains first, don't be greedy for the last bit.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. Being out of the market is not a sin; recklessly opening positions is the mistake. Don't lose patience in the choppy market and then try to regain dignity in a trending move.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round; opportunities remain, don't be anxious.
$XRP $ADA This weekend's session feels like a mall about to close—few people, shrinking volume, mainstream coins slightly pulling back, no one has the energy to break through the ceiling. The market shift probably has to wait for next week's Fed show. US Treasury yields are almost touching 5%, and the repo market's small liquidity can't quench the long-term thirst.
BTC is still oscillating inside the box, with volume shrinking smaller and smaller, like it's holding back. The lower boundary is 76000 to 76500; if it really breaks down, look down to 75000 to 75500; the upper boundary is 77800 to 78300, it needs volume and a stable break above to dare to think about going over 80,000. With weekend liquidity like this, chasing longs is easy to get pricked.
ETH is shadowboxing with BTC, moving averages tangled up, no clear direction. Support is first at 2490 to 2500, then look at 2430 to 2450 below; resistance at 2550, only with volume passing that can it possibly go to 2600 to 2650.
ZEC has been grinding at high levels after dropping from 1290, the ETF story is still there, but leveraged positions are clustered. Don't break 1100 to 1113; if broken, look at 1050; only standing above 1170 to 1200 can we talk about previous highs. Volatility is large, don't loosen your position.
Personal review, not investment advice.
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 The weekend is here, time to eat and drink.
OKB is holding around $113. This week it dipped as low as about $108 and peaked close to $118.
Looking at this range, the thought easily pops up: buy low, sell high, how comfortable that sounds.
The problem is, when the low point appears, I might not dare to buy; when the high point appears, I might not be willing to sell. After the market moves on, every step seems so simple.
Now I try not to torment myself with this kind of "perfect operation." Otherwise, even if I do nothing, just replaying it in my mind can generate a lot of regret.
I'm still willing to hold OKB and continue dollar-cost averaging at the original pace. My expectations for it haven't changed much because of these few dollars' fluctuations.
However, continuing dollar-cost averaging doesn't mean I have to place orders every day. I'll arrange it when the planned time comes. Keeping money in hand and not trading for now, I want to slowly get used to this state.
Ultimately, I hope to make money from OKB and also hope this process doesn't make life too exhausting. I can't say I'm prepared to hold long-term while expecting it to give me an explanation every afternoon.
That's all for today. If there really is a decent rally someday, I hope I'll still be holding and remember to take some profits happily. $OKB $ZEC shows remarkable strength. Since 11:20 AM, the price has only dropped about 15 points even though $ETH has fallen sharply. The $1,100 zone continues to be firmly defended, unlike the last time I entered a long position when the price kept dropping deeply.
Meanwhile, $ARB lost support, sliding from $0.143 down to $0.133. With a 50x short position, this decline is severe.
Overall, selling pressure still dominates the market. The bright spot is $LAB, which has stabilized after a double long-short move around midday. Patience remains a key factor. No FOMO. Stay patient.The market is currently being driven by three major themes: CPI and rising rate-hike expectations, ZEC’s ETF-fueled rally, and SOL’s upcoming upgrades. Each is creating a different price reaction. $BTC: Stuck around $77K and repeatedly failing to reclaim $80K. Hotter core CPI has pushed September rate-hike expectations sharply higher. After the dip toward $76K triggered liquidations, BTC bounced back into consolidation. Short term, the focus remains on FOMC: reclaiming $80K could open upside, whCore DAO's business on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The truth about $CORE The token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. The listed product is the BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) from third-party issuer Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), with underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify it as "Core debuting on the London Stock Exchange," which is promotional tactics and not CORE token trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: ETP (exchange-traded product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset, and Bitcoin entering the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business Logic - Valour holds real BTC, with institutions cold storage and custody; - Entrust BTC to Core network validators for staking to generate staking rewards (nominal annualized rate of about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value; investors who buy this LX securities indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Opened to professional investors in September 2025; Obtained FCA license in January 2026, opening trading to ordinary retail investors in the UK. 3. Core plays a role here: Underlying technology service provider - Offers Satoshi-Plus staking$BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin has not reached a new high for nearly a year, and the pattern of quickly hitting new highs after halving is fading
On September 13, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin has almost not reached a new high for a year. The number of days since the last new high is about 342 days, close to a full year. Previously, new highs would quickly follow the halving cycle, but this round is slowing down. The next halving is expected around April 2028. Additionally, the interval from the previous peak to the next new high is actually shortening: 1180 days from 2014–2017, 1094 days from 2017–2020, and 849 days from 2021–2024. Based on this, Darkfost infers that if this shortening trend continues, although this round has dragged on for a year without breaking the previous high, the new high may come faster than in previous cycles, so there is no need to wait for the "immediate new high after halving" old pattern until 2028. The cycle pattern is fading, but the interval between new highs is shortening and a new high will inevitably come.