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$BAT I was about to curse, but then I checked my account and decided to keep quiet. It can pump however it wants.
During the intraday bottom consolidation, BAT's support held without breaking, and the bottom was sideways. I advised not to rush into long positions; wait for a pullback to hold before moving up. Stronger buying is the real signal; those who rush tend to lose chips.
From 0.07712 to 0.07842, +33.97%, nailed it. No logic, no technique, just didn’t clear my position, and it happened to get stuck at the point it wanted to pump.
The premise of compounding is staying alive; shortcuts to getting rich often lead to zero. Even if you only make a little, as long as you can take it away, it’s yours; unrealized gains belong to the market.
Take profit on 70%, keep 30% at cost price as protection, and let the profits run. Now is not the time to push; wait for the next signal before acting. I will notify immediately.
$ZEC $SOL In 24 hours, this bearish candle shaved off 5.93%. Most see it as blood loss; I see it as an open line forcibly created by the opponent.
$INJ's current market is a classic late middle game: the bears just used a series of strikes to take out the edge pawns, at the cost of dismantling the king's castle defenses in a shambles. The 1-hour RSI has dropped to 32.2—not a collapse, but an overextension; meanwhile, the daily RSI remains near the 49.7 midpoint, indicating this round of selling hasn't disturbed the large-cycle pawn structure—it's just a tactical exchange in the middle game, not a strategic breakthrough.
The real information is hidden in the Bollinger Bands. The mid-cycle price position is only 2%—almost hugging the band, just 0.2% from the lower band; the short cycle is at 13%, 0.8% from the lower band. Translated into chess terms: my pawns have reached the opponent's baseline square, with no retreat possible. Adding more short positions here means exchanging pieces square by square in a narrow grid, ending with king versus king.
So I don't move immediately; I wait for the opponent to push pawns to my preset blockade line. The 4.76 level is 3.3% below the current price, exactly where the short-term lower band and key grid support intersect—that's where my passed pawn starts.
📈 Long:
Entry: 4.76 (current price -3.3%)
Take Profit 1: 5.31 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: 5.42 (+10.2%)
Stop Loss: 4.19 (-14.8%)
This risk-reward structure holds: trading a 3.3% pullback for an 8% to 10.2% gain is like using one pawn to capture an opponent's rook. The stop loss at 4.19 is because if broken, the entire pawn chain's foundation collapses, turning the situation from a tactical error into a strategic loss, forcing resignation without lingering on the endgame.
Volume hasn't followed this sell-off; this is containment, not checkmate. True checkmate often appears when everyone thinks the game is already over.
I'm waiting for that 3.3%. Because in the endgame, the deadliest thing is never the opponent's strong piece, but pressing the clock one more time before the advantage arrives. An ethics compromise can reduce one source of political friction without resolving the vote count.
The updated CLARITY Act text includes divestment or blind trusts for officials with significant crypto issuer stakes. My read: the test is whether those concessions broaden support enough to reach the 60 votes needed for formal debate on Sept 15.
#TrumpAcceptsNewEthics This week, 48 hours, three gates.
9/15 CLARITY final debate vote, 60-vote threshold, Republicans have 53 seats and need 7 Democrats to defect. Loomis: If it doesn't pass this time, the next chance might be in 2030.
9/16 Circle's Arc mainnet goes live, with BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard as genesis validators. But ARC token's May presale FDV is already 3 billion, don't fool yourself with "100x"—the opportunity is in the ecosystem, not the token.
9/17 2:00 AM Federal Reserve. Note it's a rate hike, not a cut, CME pricing at 87%. But the hike has long been priced in; the real direction will be set by the dot plot + Wash's 2:30 AM remarks.
Bitcoin stuck at 77,300, repeatedly testing 76,380, last week's golden cross failed on the same day—the market is waiting for this week.
With these three events packed together, the most likely outcome isn't a surge, but a spike. Don't act in the first minute after the data is released. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO 【Gossip】CLARITY odds have risen from less than 20% to 30% — how will the program vote be priced tomorrow?
Polymarket "Becoming Law by 2026" Yes is about 32% (trading volume about $16.2 million), a clear rebound from the previous 17%–22%. The catalyst is the final text + ethics clause implementation; but at 14:15 ET on 9/15, cloture still requires about 60 votes, with Republicans holding 53 seats, so the key remains Democratic cross-party support.
Trader's perspective: odds rebound ≠ positive outcome secured. It now feels more like "don’t bet it all," not "just wait for it to pass." The risk preference shift from a failed vote is often harsher than "continuing negotiations."
Next steps: Democratic statements, rates around 14:15, BTC gains or losses near 77,000. No trade calls.
Vote 👇
A The text is sufficient, probability of passing rises
B Still need Democrats, prepare for volatility
C Vote count noise, watch FOMCThe most dangerous moment for a building is never when it tilts and is about to collapse, but the very second the main structure is topped out and everyone looks up and applauds. $IMX is now standing on the ribbon-cutting stage—up 3.56% in 24H, it looks like the last batch of concrete is being leveled, but in reality, the curtain wall is being repeatedly battered by wind pressure.
Let's first check the structural health. The short-term RSI is 68.2, still in the neutral zone but grinding close to the 70 overbought red line, with the reinforcement ratio no longer following the blueprint. The long-term RSI is 52.8, indicating the foundation layer's design load is actually stable; only the top layer is shaking—this is local stress loss of control, not overall instability.
What really made me take out the red pen is the Bollinger Bands. The short-term price position is 111%, already breaking above the upper band, just -0.3% from the upper band and +3.4% from the lower band—the entire structure's center of gravity is completely hanging outside the support, the cantilever section is too long, and deflection is uncontrollable. The mid-term price position is 89%, +0.5% from the upper band and +4.4% from the lower band, indicating the main body is still within the track. Short-term out of bounds, mid-term stable—this is a typical cantilever beam overload, not foundation settlement.
So my approach is not demolition by explosion, but waiting for a pullback to the load-bearing axis.
My entry is set at $0.13, 2.7% above the current price. I’m not chasing a beam already suspended in mid-air; I’m working at the preset handover elevation—rebound to position then short, this is called drilling on the correct axis.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.13 (current price +2.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.12 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.12 (-4.2%)
Stop Loss: 0.14 (+13.2%)
To be clear: this stop loss buffer zone is twice as large as the first target range; the structural redundancy is too high, equivalent to equipping a six-story building with a twelve-story pile foundation. This reinforcement ratio can only be balanced with a half-position budget; going full position is like replacing load-bearing walls with decorative panels.
The two take profit steps at 6.2% and 4.2% are the two expansion joints I left for this building—first drop one floor, then observe the settlement data of the next floor.
Blueprints can be changed, but the foundation cannot be compromised. $IMX’s short-term structure has already exceeded the support; my tower crane is just waiting for a pullback elevation.Market in attack mode, STORJ drops 22.1% in one day: someone has to step on the small-cap thunder first
$STORJ 24h -22.1%, current price 0.0308; BTC 77610 still above ma7 77469.6, the market is in attack mode, small caps fall first.
My judgment: short-term bearish bias, rebound to around 0.0316, 0.0323 is a shorting point.
First, MA7 is below MA30; second, 30d -32.27%, hovering around 0.057 in the 30-day range; third, market cap is only about 15.43 million USD, rebound is an exit window.
On the other hand—RSI 48.1 neutral, MACD just formed a golden cross below zero line. Long-short account ratio 0.9623, after sharp drop tending to consolidate.
Resistance above: 0.0316 (15m SAR) → 0.0323 (1h SAR)
Support below: 0.0272 (24h low) → 0.0205 (Bollinger lower band)
Watershed: 0.0272, hold for rebound, break to watch 0.0205.
Conclusion: main path is weak rebound followed by gradual decline. September 15 FOMC overlapping CPI, small caps fall first.
Short positions near 0.0316 reduce position and move stop loss up, break 0.0272 to target 0.0205 for profit taking.
Focus on one thing, don’t get lost at the open.
$STORJ $BTCThe $DOGE quick update saying "The descending wedge hides secrets; only a breakout at the key level can target 0.15" — the big picture is drawn big and round, but looking at the barely moving K-line at 0.08432 on the screen, the magical feeling is at its peak.
Put the 0.15 dream aside for now and focus on the current reality. On the 4-hour chart, MA5, MA10, MA20 along with EMA21 and EMA55 — five moving averages are tightly entangled in the narrow range between 0.084 and 0.0855, narrower than a fingernail. Above is an impenetrable wall of moving averages, below SAR barely supports at 0.0818. Volume has shrunk significantly, and the whole market shows a tired vibe of "the main players have clocked out, retail investors are feeling around in the dark."
Although the J value has turned down to 71, RSI is flatlining between 47 and 54, playing dead on the midline. This pattern is called "volume contraction convergence" in textbooks, but in practice, it's "garbage time." They call it a "descending wedge," but if you really bet on an upward breakout, chances are you'll get shaken out with painful spikes up and down. In crypto charting, when it goes up, it's called an ascending triangle; when it goes down, it's a descending wedge. What you see as secrets, the main players see as the chips in your pocket.
At 0.084, besides paying some fees to the exchange, there's barely any room left for swing trading. Facing this extreme tug-of-war between "drawing big promises" and "real sideways trading," are you going to bet on this so-called wedge breakout, or just turn off the software and wait for it to pick a direction on its own? Share your moves in the comments.As soon as the news of $SKHYNIX DRAM's market share decline came out, combined with the guillotine on the 4-hour chart, it was simply adding insult to injury.
From 1438, it has been flooding down to 1264, without even a decent rebound being organized. Looking up at the moving averages, EMA21, EMA55, along with MA5, 10, 20, they form an impenetrable wall pressing down overhead, while SAR coldly watches from above 1341.
The most striking thing is the data below: J value at 2.75, RSI6 directly smashed down to 11.43. It looks like it has hit the floor, but this is precisely the most dangerous spot. When the trend is downward, extreme overselling is never a golden pit but a trap set by the main force to lure retail investors into catching falling knives.
Those who previously rushed in above 1400 hearing about the “AI storage revolution” probably don’t even have the strength to sigh while staring at their accounts now. Cutting losses hurts, holding on fears further drops, and the main force is slowly wearing down your patience with a dull knife here.
The key psychological level of 1250 is right in front of us. Is this the last drop of panic selling, or the start of the abyss? If it were you, would you dare to catch the falling knife at this position? Let’s discuss in the comments.The biggest highlight of the week is the Federal Reserve's FOMC policy meeting. Betting on rate hikes has reached a high level, with a probability of a 25 basis point hike approaching 90%. August's US CPI data exceeded expectations, inflation cooled less than expected, and rising oil prices raised inflation concerns, pushing market expectations higher. Many institutions have changed their stance, predicting a rate hike this time. But two things must be distinguished: the actual implementation of the rate hike itself and the guidance from the post-meeting speeches are two different things. Even if the rate hike is realized, it does not mean the market will collapse outright. The market has already priced in most of the negative side effects of rate hikes; what truly determines market volatility is not the rate hike itself, but the subsequent signals from the Federal Reserve. If the rate hike is implemented but the tone is dovish, implying this will be the last rate hike of the year and no further tightening is done, it could easily lead to a rebound where all negative factors have been exhausted. But if the rate hike coincides with the dot plot indicating there is still a possibility of further hikes this year, with a tough stance, US Treasury yields and the dollar will continue to rise, putting significant pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH We cannot completely rule out the small probability of no rate hikes. Although the probability is low, once rates remain unchanged, it could cause a sharp reversal in expectations, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to fall rapidly, and the crypto market will see a sharp short-term pulse rally called $ZEC. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to fluctuate within a range, largely because everyone is watching this FOMC round of events. Funds are hesitant to attack aggressively; bulls and bears are waiting for the outcome#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
The market is currently pricing in an 87% to 90% chance of a rate hike, which is basically a consensus. But the interesting part isn't whether there will be a hike, but what happens afterward.
$BTC has been hovering around 78,000 these days. Last Thursday, 140,000 people sold off, with bulls making up 70%. Many are focused on the logic that "bad news priced in is good news," thinking that as long as the rate hike actually happens, there will be a rebound. But note one detail — this time it's a rate hike, not a cut. The market is betting on "once it's done, it's done," but if the dot plot shows more moves within the year, that's a different story.
What's more troublesome is the $CL oil price. Brent is surging to 100, and the 30-year US Treasury yield has broken 5.27%. Both moving up simultaneously means the valuation anchor for risk assets is shifting higher. $BTC, being high Beta, is the first to get hit when liquidity tightens.
My view: The rate hike itself has limited damage since the market has priced it in early. What we really need to watch out for is the post-meeting statement and the phrase in the dot plot about "higher for longer." If Waller sets the tone that "one hike isn't enough," 78,000 is very likely not the bottom for this round.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ @OKX中文 The procedural vote on the Clarity Act will take place tomorrow night at 2:15 AM.
Conclusion first: The Clarity Act on the 15th is very unlikely to pass. It's not that no one wants legislation, but the 60 votes, the text, and the calendar are all simultaneously blocking it.
The 15th is just the cloture to start debate, which requires 60 votes. Republicans have 53 seats. Paul and Hawley are expected to oppose, and Tillis has made ethics a condition. Reliable Republican votes may only be about 50, meaning around 9 Democrats are needed. Only two crossed party lines during the committee stage, and both said committee approval ≠ full chamber approval. The weekend's final draft and Trump's acceptance of some ethics provisions raised the odds from the teens to about 30%, but this means there is a text to vote on, not that the votes are locked in. Publicly named Democratic commitments are still insufficient.
Even if it passes, it's just the beginning. There will be amendments, a second cloture, and House confirmation afterward. The House will adjourn around the 17th, with midterm elections on November 3rd. Market structure, stablecoin yields, and DeFi liabilities could still explode during the amendment phase. Prediction markets separate "will vote" from "will become law": the former is high, the latter still only about 30%. The peak was 82% in February; the drop is not sentiment but arithmetic.
So the logic is simple: without locked-in 60 votes, there is no debate; without time after debate, there is no law. Pricing it as if it won't pass on the 15th is more stable than pricing it as if the policy will land. Only if a batch of Democrats publicly take sides is it worth revising the stance #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $XRP 1.38. After being flat for so long, today a single bullish candle pulled it right back to its original shape. A couple of days ago, the group was still lamenting "XRP is hopeless," but today the tone has completely shifted, and everyone is asking "Can it break 1.5?"
Looking at the market, the spot ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly $19 million in a week, so funds are definitely flowing in. On the 4-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all trampled underfoot, and the EMA is obediently supporting from below. The bullish alignment looks quite intimidating.
However, don’t get ahead of yourself. Check out the J value down there—96.81! RSI6 has also hit 69. Short-term sentiment is already burning hot; the spring is stretched too tight and could snap at any moment. The 1.40 to 1.45 range above is full of trapped positions from before; once touched, selling pressure will definitely fly out like a snowstorm.
The most realistic portrayal of this position is: those trapped for more than half a year are agonizing over whether to break even and leave, while those who missed out are hesitating whether to chase in. The ETF money is real, but the short-term overbought pressure is also real. This is a typical clash between capital flow and technicals.
Will the 1.40 resistance be broken through in one go today, or is it just another bull trap with a rise and fall? Are you ready to handle intense volatility with the positions you hold?"Last night's sharp drop was really brutal, Bitcoin directly dropped to 76394, SOL even broke below 98, how many people were woken up by liquidation alerts in the middle of the night, cutting losses at the bottom? But as soon as the day broke, everything V-shaped back up.
This is a typical shakeout using the panic around the FOMC, clearing out all the leverage before pulling back up. That trader was right, the macro narrative is mostly noise now, they've been shouting about rate hikes, but the funds aren't buying it; instead, they're quietly looking for an exit.
Looking at the current market, Bitcoin surged then pulled back and rebounded again, the 76500 level basically held. I won't chase positions around 77800, which is halfway up the mountain; above that is all trapped positions. I'm placing orders between 76500-76800, buying if filled, if not, no worries. Stop loss at 75800; if it breaks below, I run, no stubbornness.
The main focus is still Ethereum. Yesterday, ETFs added another 197 million, four weeks in a row. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing outflows, Ethereum ETFs keep inflows, funds are clearly rotating. I'll buy Ethereum on a pullback to 2480-2500, stop loss at 2440, target 2560-2600. As long as the overall market holds, Ethereum's elasticity is definitely stronger than Bitcoin's.
SOL is following the market, holding firmly at the 100 mark; if it breaks, wait for 98 to buy in again. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $ETH $BTC
As soon as Ethereum starts to rise a bit, can you just go long directly?
I advise you to wait first
Although ETH is starting to rebound now, the price is still around 2520, and 2550 above remains a key resistance
Don't be fooled by the current movement; if the bulls can't break through with volume, it's easy to get trapped and crushed at the resistance level
Looking at the short-term moving averages, the trend hasn't fully turned strong yet. Going long now doesn't offer a favorable risk-reward ratio
Qing Jie’s approach is very clear: first watch 2520. Only consider going long if it breaks through and holds above; if it rallies but fails to break, wait for a pullback or even consider shorting
It's easiest to get carried away when the market just moves. The real opportunity is not to chase the rise but to wait for confirmation before acting
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BNB +0.17% in 24h, while only 45% of the liquid market is green.
The median market movement is -0.31%. Is this difference a local strength of $BNB or too big a divergence from the overall background?$BTC swing long
closed our short from 79.6k after price broke out of the bearish delta at 77.5k, followed by the .618 wick-fill, while sellers failed to push price back below 76k
we could see a minor rejection around 78.5k-79k, but if 77.5k flips into support, I think we frontrun 74–73k and rotate back into 83.7–84.5k
any dip into 76–75k is an area to add. Will adjust the stop if we get the chance$LSK The old coin has been played into a spike-and-dump trap
Yesterday it surged explosively, reaching a high of 1.413, but today it dropped 36%
It kept crashing, with an intraday spike down to 0.323, nearly halving from the current price, with a volume ratio of 21.06, exploding to 21 times the usual volume of bloodshed. In the past few days, it continuously surged, pushing the RSI to the sky, and today's -36% drop still couldn't suppress it.
Typical: high open, low close + spike with heavy long liquidation control script.
The whales specifically target old coins with poor liquidity: opening at the high point and slowly declining, then spiking down to 0.323 to sweep out long stop losses, one spike cleanly cuts off contract longs, and those who catch the falling knife are all buried. Lisk is an old project from 2016, originally a sidechain DPoS, later transitioning to L2 SDK, cross-chain interoperability, then migrating to Optimism Superchain, dormant for almost two years, fundamentals unchanged, purely a chip game.
Short-term top signal is obvious. Don't treat 0.40 as a bottom.
Old coins that surge then crash, 99% are controlled dumps, not value discovery. Wait for volume contraction and stabilization before considering. Buying now is just feeding bullets to the whales. Manage your stop losses well, don't be greedy. $APR Was anxious last night, but woke up this morning realizing the anxiety was unnecessary, just wasted worry.
The last glance at APR before bed showed strong bullish traps, no one was catching the rise, so I knew shorting at the high was promising, placed the order around 0.2422. Many were afraid it would keep surging, but I just warned that the resistance above was tight, don’t rush to catch it.
Opened the market this morning, price already dropped to 0.1465, +790.25% unrealized profit in hand, this wave was really satisfying. Short positions realized, those on board must have woken up smiling.
First reduce 80%, use the cost price as a stop-loss, keep the remaining 20% to let profits run, don’t give back profits on the rebound. Don’t be greedy for the last bit.
Better to miss a move than to catch at a bad spot. Don’t let profits inflate, don’t despair on pullbacks.
For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: if you miss it, don’t chase, wait for a new structure to appear before watching again.
$ETH $XRP ⚠️ Warning! BTC is now at 77624, just a bit below the 78000 resistance level. Don't chase longs at this position!
Let me tell you, the area near round number thresholds is the most dangerous. There's a large amount of trapped positions at 78000 above, and every time it tries to break through, there's heavy selling pressure. If you chase in now, you could easily get stuck at the peak.
I once lost 200,000 U, more than half of it from chasing highs at positions like this. Seeing a breakout coming, I got overly excited and went all in, only to have a sharp drop hit immediately, not even enough time to stop loss.
My current strategy is clear: absolutely no chasing longs near 78000; instead, consider reducing positions or lightly shorting; wait for a pullback to 76323 without breaking it, then consider a small 5000 U long position. Always use stop loss, never hold through losses.
Remember, not chasing highs is the first iron rule for retail traders to survive. $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ After the first drop at 6 PM yesterday afternoon, I confirmed the next three moves. They matched my projections exactly.
The confirmed range has been completed, but the uncertainty lies in the current rebound phase, where the degree of shakeout is unclear.
During this rebound, Bitcoin and Ethereum broke through 77500 and 2520, with wicks reaching 77800 and 1526 respectively. The upward momentum continues with relatively low difficulty in further shakeouts, possibly shaking out some holders before the next drop.
It's tough. After a money-picking market, this turns into a high-risk game. After all, the market has given retail investors so many opportunities, it’s only fair to clean out some of them. $BTC $CL
Bullish momentum builds to break 100 again, or is it a fakeout shakeout?
The candlestick chart shows a stair-step upward structure with both higher highs and higher lows, a typical bullish trend feature.
Currently, the short-term moving averages for crude oil are flattening, indicating a weakening upward momentum and entering a correction and consolidation phase.
Uptrend + volume contraction during pullback + negative fees, short-term bulls still hold the advantage.
As a key variable of inflation, crude oil's continued rise will exacerbate inflationary pressure and strengthen the Fed's tightening expectations, which is bearish for the overall crypto market.
The 100 round number is a key psychological battleground; remain cautious before the breakout.
Currently, bulls have the advantage, but it is important to wait for a break above 100 to determine the major direction.Range-bound consolidation, the major bullish structure remains intact $ETH
ETH has been oscillating back and forth within a range for three consecutive weeks, repeatedly hitting the 2530-2545 resistance and being pushed back, leading many to mistakenly believe the market is turning bearish.
However, looking at the daily chart, the price still firmly stands above the main EMA lines, and the large-scale uptrend structure has not been broken.
During the pullback, the previously overheated buying sentiment has been fully released, MACD continues to operate above the zero line, indicating a consolidation after an uptrend rather than a trend reversal. $LAB
On-chain funds show a large amount of tokens held by long-term addresses, and the circulating tokens available for sale in the market are continuously decreasing, which is the confidence of long-term bulls.
Short-term repeated spikes and grinding up and down are just washing out weak hands. The only thing missing now is a volume breakout; once the resistance at 2535 is effectively broken, the upside space will fully open. #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 #霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 Man Ray: Are you going long on Samsung?
Patrick: Yes.
Man Ray: Samsung has a long-term memory contract extended to 2031?
Patrick: Yes.
Man Ray: And it’s trading at about 2.8 times the expected 2027 P/E ratio?
Patrick: Yes.
Man Ray: So you’re buying Samsung?
Patrick: No, I’m selling on a 4% dip because X said memory will crash due to AI slowdown ETH intraday relies on a wick low point to oscillate and accumulate energy, with the upper space already opened
On the 4-hour level, ETH previously made a probing wick at 2433, then formed a solid bullish reversal candle to rally, this candle directly defined the core operating bottom for the past few days.
Weekend trading is light, with the price oscillating around 2500.
In the short term, the range from 2500 to 2666 has almost no dense chip pressure; once volume breaks through 2666, the upward movement will be relatively smooth.
Layered support needs close attention: the first support is at 2440, a key defensive level for this reversal; a deeper strong support lies at 2340.
The real heavyweight chip pressure zone is concentrated between 2750-2850, where a large amount of previous trapped positions have accumulated. Subsequent advances into this range will face relatively strong selling pressure. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics Just after 3 PM, I finished my tasks and glanced at the market; BTC finally climbed back above 77,600. Compared to the dull, painful feeling over the weekend, today's rebound gave a bit of relief.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all supporting the price from below, with short-term moving averages starting to align bullishly. The price also touched the upper Bollinger Band near 77,878. However, volume hasn't picked up yet; big players are still inactive, so this move looks more like a technical rebound after overselling.
The breaking news in the screenshot really hit home: "Macro narratives are mostly noise." Lately, people in the group have been calculating rate hike probabilities from CPI and PPI data every day, going gray-headed. For retail investors like us, guessing the Fed's intentions daily is like flipping a coin; it all depends on how the big players want to draw the lines.
Next week's FOMC is indeed important, but betting on the direction now is just giving away your position. 76,000 looks like a short-term strong support, 80,000 is a strong resistance, and the area in between is just a range for shaking out high-leverage positions.
The strategy remains the same: hold your spot positions and play dead; don't get itchy to open leverage. Don't be trapped by macro data; your mindset is far more important than these small fluctuations. I'll check again before the US market opens tonight; maybe another spike is coming. Closing the app now, time to get off work and eat.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO Don't rush to bottom-fish; the most vulnerable link has already been exposed. Do your three positions really have their own reasons? I've been watching the market these past two days, and my most direct impression is: BTC is holding up the foundation near 76.83K, ETH is steady above 2.42K, while SOL is still hovering below 103.95. On the surface, it looks like the three coins are consolidating separately, but on closer inspection, it seems risk appetite hasn't truly spread, just contracting from the weakest points. SOL, a highly elastic asset, was the first to feel the cold wind—not because it's bad, but because its pricing carries too many expectations for risk appetite. ✨ Now, what is trading in the market isn't about "whether the bull market is still ongoing," but "who gets dumped first." BTC did not trigger panic after falling below 78.63K, indicating that core positions are still being treated as safe havens; ETH holding 2.42K indicates the expansion narrative has not completely died down; But SOL still hasn't recovered 103.95, which reminds me that funds chasing high volatility are becoming more selective. This sequence is important, as it shows that risk appetite is not expanding outward but concentrating inward. The path to a bullish side is clear: as long as BTC holds around 76.83K and ETH doesn't lose 2.42K, once risk appetite picks up again, it's only a matter of time before SOL returns above 103.95, when the elasticity layer will respond first. But the risk is that if SOL remains below 103.95 and BTC starts to loosen by 7,Open my position card — that short $BTC position is still showing a slight unrealized loss, but look at the liquidation price, it's ridiculously far from the current price. Some ask why I leave such a wide margin; it's not that I don't dare to go heavy, it's intentional.
Going naked short into FOMC week, the biggest fear is never being wrong on direction, but getting stopped out by a spike and then the market moves as you originally expected. So I'd rather lower leverage efficiency, push the liquidation price to the horizon, and use the "anti-spike" buffer to exchange for the certainty of "not getting stopped out."
It's the same in poker: when facing a big bet with a binary outcome, the real skill isn't whether you dare to call, but whether you have enough chips to weather the turbulence. I accept unrealized losses, but I don't accept getting washed out. How do you plan to manage your exposure this week? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics Whales are losing massively inside! Is the little money coming in from the ETF enough to absorb the selling pressure from these loss-making whales?
Look at the top two: 98,200 ETH with an unrealized loss of 23.82 million, 62,400 ETH with an unrealized loss of 15.55 million, totaling nearly 40 million USD in losses! Think about it, these big holders with hundreds of millions locked in are trapped tight. Their minds are definitely not on pumping the market but on how to quickly escape using the liquidity brought by the ETF! The more the ETF buys, the more it provides them an escape route.
Now look at the fifth place, 1.38 million HYPE, with an unrealized gain of 56.86 million and a 51% return. The same whales are getting hit in ETH but profiting in HYPE. Money is moving from Ethereum to HYPE, this is a brutal sector rotation.
So don’t think it’s stable just because the ETF is buying. Bitcoin is stuck around 77,000, Ethereum struggling at 2,500, all under the selling pressure from these loss-making whales. As soon as there’s a slight rebound, they will desperately dump to get out of their positions.
My strategy is clear: never blindly bullish, defend when needed.
If Bitcoin rebounds to 78,000-78,500 and faces resistance, I will lightly short with a stop loss at 79,000 and a target of 76,500. If Ethereum rebounds to 2,560-2,600 but can’t break through, I will also short with a stop loss at 2,650. I will never heavily buy the dip unless Bitcoin truly breaks below 72,000.
In today’s market, survival is more important than making money. #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 The entire market is broadly declining, with the market having already priced in the Fed's September rate hike.
Currently, the market is betting on a 78% probability of a 25bp rate hike, with related trading volume reaching $145 million. This is not just sentiment-driven shorting; a large amount of capital has already positioned ahead.
$BTC is currently priced at 76,900, closely holding the key support at 75,000. As long as 75,000 holds, the market remains in a consolidation phase; if it breaks down effectively, the short-term target is 73,000 or even 72,000.
$ETH is currently at 2,485, with 2,400 as the core support level and 2,500 as the critical dividing line between bulls and bears. Only by firmly reclaiming 2,500 will the upward space reopen.
$ZEC is currently at 1,064, with a larger pullback today, but a 2% drop alone does not turn the outlook bearish. The key level to watch is 1,000; holding it indicates a strong adjustment, while breaking above 1,100 could target 1,200.
Opinion: Do not panic sell on a single large bearish candle. The more chaotic the market, the more it is a phase of capital reshuffling. Continue to trade as long as key supports hold; exit decisively if supports break. After the release of #PPI and CPI, many institutions have raised their expectations for a September rate hike.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
This approach clarifies rate hike expectations and key support and resistance levels for each coin, but there are several cognitive traps:
1. With a 78% rate hike probability, the market has already priced it in, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
Much of the current decline has already digested this rate hike expectation. Even if the decision confirms a 25bp hike, if the Fed's speech signals dovish tones, it could trigger a relief rally. Do not assume a rate hike will cause continuous decline; trading ahead of events is the most common market pattern.
2. 75,000, 2,400, and 1,000 are psychological supports, not ironclad bottoms.
These are round numbers traders focus on. In low liquidity phases before events, short fake breakouts can occur, triggering stop losses before quickly recovering. Do not treat these support levels as absolute safety lines; relying solely on price levels for entry or exit risks being shaken out.
3. Judging $ZEC’s strength solely by a 2% pullback ignores its inherent chip risk.
$ZEC has high concentration of holdings and massive open contract volume, making it highly volatile. Small short-term pullbacks can be strong adjustments or the start of a downtrend. Once privacy narratives fade, $ZEC’s decline could outpace mainstream coins. Do not judge strength or weakness solely by the 1,000 level.
4. "Hold and trade if support holds, exit if broken" seems straightforward but risks slippage on gaps.
Approaching the FOMC major decision, price gaps are common at announcement. If price instantly breaks support, there may be no chance to exit smoothly; preset stop-losses risk slippage.
It is acceptable to recognize the current market is trading rate hike expectations, but avoid one-sided predictions. Event windows bring huge volatility; capital reshuffling requires strict position control. Do not heavily bet on supports holding. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 13.46 million USD short position on SNDK, 10x leverage, still adding over the weekend.
PONS also holds 3.62 million, 3x leverage. Same hands, same direction.
Those who have been burned by this kind of position don’t admire it at first glance. That 3,000 USD red envelope money at 14 years old once grew to 300,000, then high leverage wiped it out — he’s played this script himself.
Now Hyperliquid’s second largest short position, $BTC still has 81.52 million, 20x leverage. Reduced by 49 coins this morning, seems like repositioning.
The bigger the position, the smaller the margin for error. He knows better than anyone what zeroing out looks like, yet still pulls leverage to this level.
Better to wait for him to reduce his position than to wait for a liquidation message.
#BTC spot ETF outflows nearly 450 million USD in three days
#Iran allows BTC and USDT for foreign trade settlement #ZEC institutional funds entering, high leverage starting to clear $BTC $SNDK #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics ETF FLOWS ARE DIVERGING
Altseason is unconfirmed, but ETF flows reveal a shift: institutional capital isn’t leaving crypto—it’s becoming more selective.
Week of Sep 7–11:
$BTC → -$462.73M
$ETH → +$197.11M
Notably, $BTC ended a 3-week inflow streak, while ETH attracted capital.
I’m watching:
$ETH, $BTC → ETF flows
When BTC ETF flows reverse while $ETH attracts capital, the story may not be “risk-off” — it could be capital rotation#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics BTC hit new highs, SUI, SOL, and various MEMES, but I found that ETH is actually being undervalued by many. Many people share a common view: BTC has already risen, SOL is rising fast, SUI has more stories, and ETH is already old. I actually think this kind of thinking deserves caution. ETH's biggest feature is never the fastest rise, but that in every cycle, it is a bridge that market funds cannot avoid. Many DeFi, stablecoins, RWA, AI projects, and Layer 2 ecosystems ultimately relate to ETH. As market liquidity becomes more abundant, large funds often stop staying in BTC but start looking for a second core asset to receive funds. Many retail investors make a common mistake: they only focus on the daily gainers' leaderboard. If a coin rises 20% today, they think there's an opportunity; tomorrow another coin rises 30%, and they chase after it. As a result, the number of coins in the account keeps growing, while those who are truly making money are becoming fewer. I increasingly believe in one saying: a real big market isn't for those who exchange coins every day, but for those who understand the main theme. Will ETH definitely skyrocket? No one can guarantee it. But I will observe a few real signals, not just listen to market hype. First, whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to strengthen. Second, whether on-chain funds are continuously flowing into the ETH ecosystem, rather than just a day or two. Third, whether the altcoin market is spreading across the board, rather than just a few hot coins rising. If these signals appear simultaneously, I would think ETHBut I think the bigger story is happening underneath the surface: Wall Street is slowly becoming crypto-like. The SEC is preparing for its September 17 roundtable on the transition toward 24-hour U.S. equity trading. The agenda includes overnight trading, exchange and broker readiness, liquidity, settlement, cybersecurity, market-data continuity, and the possibility of eventually moving toward even broader continuous trading. Major names across exchanges, brokers, market makers, custodians and iHot Coin Market Data Rankings
$ZEC: Active buyers dominate. Three sets of 5-minute statistics show active buying at 58.9%, active selling at 41.1%, with the active buy amount about 1.43 times the sell amount; the 15-minute candlestick rose 2.19%.
Open interest decreased by 0.85%, while open interest value increased by 1.38%. The number of contracts decreased but the value rose, indicating that the price increase offset the contraction in contract quantity, characteristic of short covering rather than a large influx of new long positions.
$BTC: Active selling dominates, but the price does not show a significant drop. Three sets of 5-minute statistics show active buying at 32.6%, active selling at 67.4%, with the active sell amount 2.07 times the buy amount; the 15-minute candlestick rose slightly by 0.046%.
Open interest increased by 0.08%, and open interest value increased by 0.15%, with both quantity and value expanding in the same direction, indicating new leveraged positions entering the market and increasing long-short divergence.
Phenomenon: High proportion of sell trades but price holds steady, indicating support below. This is a typical scenario where selling pressure is absorbed, not indicating that bulls have taken control.
$ETH: Price rises with active trades biased towards buying. Three sets of 5-minute statistics show active buying at 64.1%, active selling at 35.9%, with the active buy amount about 1.79 times the sell amount; the 15-minute candlestick rose 0.12%.
Open interest increased by 0.21%, and open interest value increased by 0.39%, with both quantity and value rising simultaneously, indicating new leveraged funds entering, price rising with OI increase, reflecting a relatively healthy market structure.
Summary: The price rises and dominance of active buying in ZEC and ETH mutually confirm each other, showing short-term market strength. BTC shows a divergence with "high sell ratio but no price drop," requiring continued observation to see if selling pressure will materialize. BTC $ETH $ZEC
This set of 5-minute level market statistics is intuitive but there are several key misconceptions to watch out for:
1. 5-minute short-term trade ratios are just instantaneous snapshots and do not represent trends.
Active buy/sell ratios are short-cycle samples easily disturbed by large order wash trades or sweeps. Relying on just three to five 5-minute data points cannot directly determine future direction; longer hourly data combined with volume confirmation is needed. For $BTC, high active selling ratio but no price drop could mean: ① strong support below; ② large passive orders absorbing sales without active buying attack, which can easily be broken by a wave of selling pressure later, so it should not be taken as a bullish signal.
2. Interpretation of ZEC open interest decrease with value increase
Open interest (contract count) decline means some contracts are closed and exited; value increase is due to price rise.
This "price up, OI down" pattern is mostly driven by short covering and closing, not by a large influx of new long positions.
The rebound from short covering tends to be weak and once covering is complete, prices can fall again. ZEC is highly volatile; do not mistake short-term covering rallies for trend reversals.
3. $ETH price rise with OI increase is a healthy structure but does not guarantee continuous rise
Open interest increase means new leverage entering, increasing long-short divergence. The rise has capital support, but during FOMC event windows, macro bearish factors can instantly break this structure, and added leverage can amplify subsequent liquidation risks.
4. Data are market signals and cannot be separated from the macro background
The current market focus is the event game on September 15-16. Even if short-term market signals appear strong, if macro expectations turn hawkish, all short-term market signals will fail.
Market data should only be used to observe current capital sentiment and not as the sole basis for opening positions.
Conclusion: ETH's short-term market structure is relatively healthy; ZEC is mainly driven by short covering; BTC shows divergence with heavy selling pressure but price resistance, requiring close monitoring of whether support can continue. All signals must be judged comprehensively with the macro environment before event outcomes, and heavy position decisions should not be based solely on short-term trade ratios. BTC $ETH $ZEC How much longer can Ethereum hold?
An ETH address dormant for four years appears to be reducing its position
Recharged 1,250 coins 2 hours ago
On-chain analyst AI Auntie pointed out that an $ETH $ETH address dormant for four years seems to be reducing its holdings, with the position traceable back to the address 0x08e...03e6b from 7 years ago.
This address received 1,500 ETH as early as September 2021, when the coin price was $3,159.27. It never transferred or sold any during that period, but 1,250 ETH (about $3.14 million) was recharged to max exchange 2 hours ago. $BTC
If sold, the asset would shrink by over 20%. #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics As of today, Hyperliquid's open interest (OI) has reached approximately $10.28B, surpassing the levels of Bybit and Gate. It has even exceeded OKX in the perpetual futures open interest for $BTC. Whether this news can make $HYPE rise or by how much is not important; the fact that Hyperliquid's product scale can be compared to centralized exchanges already says something.
Previously, Ajian analyzed that Coinbase has integrated Hyperliquid perps into the Base App, offering 290+ markets with up to 50x leverage; now with OI surpassing a batch of traditional trading platforms, it is enough to prove that on-chain perpetual trading demand is no longer a niche market. Hyperliquid is evolving from a perp DEX into the infrastructure for on-chain trading.#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
📉SNDK, I’m still the one sticking to a bearish view
The recent trend of SanDisk has been a meat grinder for bulls and bears.
Bulls talk about AI long positions, ultra-high gross margins, and massive buybacks;
I only focus on one thing: NAND is a cyclical commodity, not an AI growth stock.
My three logics haven’t changed:
1. The current high profits rely entirely on flash price hikes, not shipment surges;
2. The crazier the price rise → the more competitors expand production → price collapse, this is the fate written into the storage industry’s script;
3. The stock price has long priced in the most optimistic scenario; once guidance weakens marginally, it’s a valuation kill.
The process is indeed agonizing.
When the short squeeze was at its worst, the unrealized losses were huge, and it felt like the entire market was against me.
Many shorts couldn’t hold on and stopped out halfway through the rebound.
I held on.
Now with the market pullback, the short position has turned from unrealized loss to unrealized gain; the hardest part is over.
But I’m very clear: this is only a phase victory, not the end.
This week’s Fed meeting is a big variable—if rate hike expectations rise again, cyclical stocks will be under pressure; if it turns dovish, another short squeeze could come at any time.
Add to that NAND spot prices, major manufacturers’ expansion statements, and cloud vendors’ capital expenditures—all hanging in the balance.
Holding positions is not worth mindless imitation; this time profit comes from judgment, position management, and some luck.
In reality, more holding leads to liquidation.
I still see the direction as bearish but will strictly exit according to my plan,
no greed, no fighting to the end. On Sunday in Ireland, Trump told reporters: the US "should pay the lowest global interest rate," regardless of the Fed's formula; when asked if there would be a rate hike, he replied, "I don't know." The market, however, did not side with him — FedWatch still prices in about an 86%–87% chance of a 25bp rate hike on Wednesday, with the target range pointing to 3.75%–4.00%; the two-year US Treasury yield also capped at about 4.61%.
The crypto market is a bit more obedient: BTC weekly retraced about 5%, once dipping to around 76,700–76,800 before hovering near 77,000. The White House is pushing for a rate cut, pricing bets on a hike; what really matters to watch on Wednesday is the dot plot and the post-meeting tone, not just whether the hike lands #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC $ETH Looking at these three market charts all morning, I was honestly amused with frustration. The current market feels like a patience game—whoever gets anxious first loses.
First, let's talk about $DOGE. I really have to give it to this "dead dog." The daily volatility is only 3.61%, and the price at $0.08397 is dragging on so slowly it makes me want to sleep. But if you look closely at the net capital inflow of $70.2708 million and the trading volume of only $185 million, what does that mean? It means nearly 40% of the funds entering the market haven't pushed the price up. This rhythm couldn't be clearer: there are big players down below with wide-open mouths absorbing the supply, but they just won't lift the price. They have to wear down the patience of those short-term traders and force them to give up their chips. At this stage, frankly, it's a dull bottom-building consolidation, just waiting for a trigger.
Now look at $OKB. The big brother is steady—priced at $113.95, a slight rise of 1.22%, and a net inflow of $8.7495 million against a trading volume of $16.0231 million, which basically means everyone is buying in. Platform tokens now act as a safe haven; big players with nowhere else to put their funds first settle here. This trend lacks explosive power but wins on stability, perfect for those who want to sleep soundly. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics $SOL: Goldman sold. Should you panic? No. Goldman liquidated SOL/XRP ETFs last week. Why? Bearish macro. 5% yields. Tactical move, not a SOL hate trade. Technicals: <100 for 3 days 7d + 14d MA overhead 30d MA 97.5 = last support Fundamentals: SOL ETF: $880M inflows Alpenglow: October still on Plan: Do nothing before Wed. If FOMC clean → reclaim 100-105 → 110 If messy → 97.5 breaks Don’t confuse bank risk management with Solana fundamentals.#BTCSpotETF450MOutflow $BTC $SOL $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | Three forms of power
$BTC’s power comes from trust in the rules.
$ETH’s power comes from what can be built on top of those rules.
$SOL’s power comes from how fast those rules execute.
Bitcoin optimizes for monetary certainty.
Ethereum optimizes for composability.
Solana optimizes for high-speed on-chain activity.
One industry.
Three entirely different answers to this question:
What are blockchains best at?Currently, BTC and ETH, along with the US stock market, are simultaneously entering a correction phase. Many are wondering: before the key news on September 15 and 16 is released, is there still a possibility for the market to continue to dip?
At present, BTC is around $77,000, ETH about $2,510, with the overall market showing weakness. The Senate crypto bill vote is scheduled for September 15, but to pass the bill, 60 votes are needed, and whether this threshold will be met is highly uncertain.
Before the results are out, the market is biased towards a bearish consolidation, with a relatively higher chance of bottoming out. Large-scale chasing of longs is not recommended.
Support levels to watch: BTC at 76,000, ETH at 2,460, ZEC at 1,050; if these levels are broken, we will continue to observe and wait for a new direction.
Trading approach: trade with small positions before the news release, and do not greedily pursue small short-term profits.
If the supports hold, volume expands simultaneously, and BTC reclaims $78,000, the probability of an upward move after the 15th will significantly increase. The current trend direction is unclear, so it is best to wait for the news release before making decisions. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
This strategy clearly organizes macro events, key supports, and scenario-based trading plans, but there are several common cognitive pitfalls:
1. A higher probability of bottoming does not mean the preset supports will definitely be reached.
The levels 76,000, 2,460, and 1,050 are observation points, not guaranteed prices. On the eve of the event, intense capital battles can easily cause wick-like brief touches of support followed by immediate pullbacks—false breakouts. Placing shorts or longs directly at these points risks stop-loss hunting. During the event window, expectations are priced in advance and may not follow the preset levels exactly.
2. The Senate bill vote is an emotional disturbance and unlikely to solely drive the overall market trend.
The vote result will mostly cause short-term impulse moves. The real determinant of BTC and ETH’s major direction remains the FOMC interest rate decision and Federal Reserve statements on the 16th. Do not treat the bill’s uncertainty as the core driver of continued market dips; interest rate expectations are the main theme. Even if the bill vote disappoints, it may soon be overshadowed by rate-driven moves.
3. "Support holds + volume expansion + reclaiming 78K" is the confirmation condition for bulls, but beware of bull traps.
Even if BTC returns to $78,000, it could be a short-term bull trap rebound before the news release. Often, a rebound is pulled before the event, only to reverse again after the decision. Do not rely solely on price and volume to conclude a bullish trend.
4. The bearish consolidation plan lacks a contingency for sudden positive surprises.
This plan assumes bearish consolidation, but if inflation data suddenly weakens or officials release dovish comments, it could quickly trigger short covering and a rapid rebound. Having only a bottoming strategy means it’s easy to be caught off guard by sudden positive news, causing losses on short positions.
Small position trading and waiting for the news release to determine the trend is a reasonable risk control approach. There is great uncertainty before the event, so avoid heavy positions betting on one side, and always set stop losses regardless of direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Not necessarily a rate hike.
Even if there is a 25bp hike in September, I don't think now is the time to rush to short BTC.
On the 17th FOMC, the market has already highly priced in a 25bp rate hike, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase turning hawkish one after another.
The reasons are simple:
· Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, inflation is still slowing down slowly;
· Oil prices are rising again due to the Middle East situation;
· Plus Warsh leaning hawkish, the market's pricing for a rate hike is heating up quickly.
But here’s the problem:
These negative factors have already been priced in by the market.
Even if there is a 25bp hike, it’s just the rate hike landing → negative news realized → $BTC wide fluctuations.
What’s really worth betting on is what if the Fed ultimately does not hike?
Rate hike expectations reverse → US Treasury yields fall → USD weakens → risk assets repriced.
Then BTC might not fall, but directly undergo a round of expectation reversal.
So my strategy is simple:
Don’t chase shorts, set tight stop losses, try longs with small positions.
Support at 76,000, resistance at 80,000.
Rate hike: expect volatility.
No rate hike: could explode directly.
This FOMC, the real odds are not on betting "rate hike," but on using small stop losses to bet on the "no rate hike" that the market has not fully priced in yet.#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% is something the market has already talked to death. What’s really worth watching is the signal from the repo operations—the Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases, yet yields keep pushing higher, with the 10-year hitting 4.97% and the 30-year reaching a 19-year high.
This trend indicates one thing: the curve the authorities want to suppress is not accepted by the market. Bassett’s narrative of "growth to pay debt" doesn’t add up numerically against 40 trillion in debt and a 1.9% real growth rate. Oil prices have also broken $100 at this point, and energy inflation has brought rate hike expectations back to the table, with September rate hike pricing once spiking close to 90%.
For the crypto space, the problem isn’t the decline itself, but the "quality" of the decline has changed. If the surge in Treasury yields were driven by strong economic growth, risk assets could hold up; but this time, risk-free rates are rising without matching growth expectations, which is the least favorable combination for Bitcoin.
$BTC is now stuck around 76k, ETF funds are flowing out, the technical golden cross is about to form but the macro environment is dragging it down. Next, it depends on whether CPI gives a breather and how the market reacts to the 5% whole number threshold—whether the fear is real or just pretended.
#美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力 @OKX中文 $ETH $ZEC Shorted from 0.2436 to 0.2209, 20x profit 186%. This trade won by recognizing the overextension of positive news.
Although $MET used 88% of its quarterly revenue for secondary market buybacks, Q1 2026 revenue has already dropped by 35%. Buyback funds are unsustainable, and buying support is completely weakened.
Real risk: The protocol still faces legal clouds of insider trading lawsuits and class action suits.
Plus, the quarterly unlocking selling pressure arrived as expected.
I decisively opened a short at the high of 0.2436.
The 0.20 level is the long-short defense line for the future market. During the fundamental downturn, only short, no long. $ZEC $FIL $BZ surged to 103.91 before suddenly plunging; the $100 mark is not easy to break.
Last night, the price once surged to 103.91, but today it fell back to 102.22. When it rises, some sell off; when it falls, others buy in. It's really not that easy to establish a one-sided trend.
Why is this happening? The core reason is that the news is mixed—cooling down on one side, adding fuel on the other.
First, on the bearish side, the Omani Energy Minister signaled that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, and that the current rapid rise in oil prices is unsustainable. Once this statement came out, market worries about supply disruptions eased a bit, profit-taking at high levels naturally began, and oil prices fell accordingly.
But the problem is, the geopolitical risk on the other side has not truly disappeared.
The originally scheduled meeting between Iran and Gulf countries was suddenly postponed, indicating that negotiations are not progressing smoothly. As long as this issue is not fully resolved, the market won’t dare to completely remove the risk premium, so there is still support under the oil price.
So the current market is very clear: conflicting news causes prices to fluctuate back and forth.
I’m currently not chasing the middle ground around 102; I’d rather wait for a pullback to the 99-100 area to see if support can hold. If it stabilizes, I might lightly try long positions with a stop loss at 98, and the first target at 103-105.
Crude oil is highly volatile; don’t heavily bet on direction. Hold if support holds, exit if it breaks. #霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 Open interest contracts dropped from 320,000 to 270,000, with the price only falling by 5%. Leverage withdrew first, then the price followed.
Outsiders tend to reverse the order. A 13.5% shrinkage in positions denominated in $BTC indicates that the reduction was not forced by the price drop but was a proactive move. The current scale is about 20% lower than before the mid-August rally.
Deleveraging was concentrated before key event announcements and actually stopped declining during the announcement period. A more likely explanation is that some funds chose to exit first and observe, rather than passively respond after the news landed.
The verification point is here: if open interest continues to rise after the event while the price remains unchanged, it indicates only short-term hedging; if both open interest and price weaken simultaneously, then this round of clearing is not over yet.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 $BTC It reacts to: Liquidity → Yields → Dollar → Risk appetite → Institutional flows When global liquidity becomes tighter, speculative assets feel it. When financial conditions improve, risk assets can breathe again. That's why sometimes Bitcoin can have a bullish chart… …but still struggle to continue higher. The chart is only one layer. The macro environment is another. The strongest traders don't ask only: “Where is BTC going?” They ask: “What conditions would make BTC move there?” Understand the$BTC I stand on the bulls' side. A 25 basis point rate hike is almost inevitable, but it's no longer news—prices have already been factored in.
FedWatch shows an 86% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, and before Walsh's speech on August 28, the market was still evenly split. During the same period, $BTC rose from 77,846 to 77,600, basically unchanged.
The key to not following the decline is the US dollar. The rate hike hurt the currency's price thanks to a strong dollar, but the dollar index rebounded from 99.70 to 99.35, and this transmission didn't start. The reason is that this rate hike wasn't due to economic overheating, but was driven by oil prices: Brent rose from $89 to $107. The market saw this as a passive response to inflation, not the start of a tightening cycle.
Contract holdings dropped from 8.48 billion to 8.06 billion USD in one week, and the period when 81,270 fell to 76,569 USD, was a premature digestion.
Forecast: 48 hours after the decision is implemented, $BTC hold 76,500 and retest 80,000.
Bearish condition: Walsh hinted at another increase in October, or that the 10-year Treasury yield could close up 5% (now 4.97%).