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Looking back at my previous trades
The most profitable ones are often when the market is most panicked
Recently, I went back and reread my earlier articles, and I realized that many of my judgments during this period have come true.
Especially during this recent round of decline.
When BTC dropped back to around 76000, market sentiment was already very poor. At that time, I didn’t encourage everyone to short; instead, I was constantly looking for coins to buy at the bottom. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 Don't just look at this rebound bullish candle; glance up at the 4-hour chart, where EMA21 and EMA55 are twisted into a steel cable around 0.83, tightly pressing down overhead. Above are all trapped positions from the drop below 1.0, just waiting for a rebound to break free. This oversold rebound lacks volume support and is solely propped up by indicators. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #LongYields5%NewNormal What exactly is the relationship between ZEC and Grayscale?
Simply put, this round of ZEC can be seen as Grayscale's god-making plan!
Many people involved with ZEC regard Grayscale as an important reference, but many don't understand the essence of the two.
Grayscale is not the ZEC project team and does not participate in code development; it is only a custodian.
Grayscale has issued ZEC trusts, which later converted into spot ETFs. These are compliant tools for U.S. institutions to allocate ZEC. When institutions buy the ETF, Grayscale must purchase ZEC on the secondary market to hold as underlying custody.
Grayscale holds a large amount of ZEC tokens, and fund subscriptions bring buying pressure; once large-scale redemptions occur, selling pressure arises, directly impacting the market.
But do not deify Grayscale.
Back in 2016 during the peak price of ZEC pulse 5941U, Grayscale did not exist; it was just low-liquidity speculation. Now with ETFs, the capital structure has changed, and institutional entry does not necessarily mean the coin price will surge.
The privacy sector itself carries high regulatory risks; ETFs only open channels for capital inflow and outflow and are not a guarantee of price increase.
When trading ZEC, you should track the fund inflow and outflow data of the Grayscale ETF, but don't treat it as the sole reason to go long.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $CNPY Looking at the data, the open interest has fallen back from the peak, but the price has been hovering around 0.38. Combined with the funding rate narrowing from a deep negative value, this is a typical pattern of leveraged funds retreating while spot is absorbing. Next, it depends on whether the spot buying can hold; if it can't, a prolonged sideways movement will likely lead to a drop, but if it holds, it will be the next wave of accumulation. Continuing to observe.Tether 与 Gold.com 的合作正在进入一个更深的阶段——它不再只是持有黄金，而是开始让黄金参与到实际的融资和贵金属交易体系中。 📊 最新数据： 截至 6 月底，Gold.com 的贵金属租赁规模约 17亿美元，其中大部分来自 Tether；Gold.com 对 Tether 的应付款及预付款约 14.5亿美元。(Bloomberg Law) 🔸 Tether 今年以约 1.5亿美元取得 Gold.com 约 13% 的股份 🔸 双方建立黄金租赁、储存及交易合作 🔸 Gold.com 已投入约 2000万美元购买 Tether 的黄金代币 $XAUT 🔸 Tether 此前公布，截至2026年6月底，其黄金持仓已超过 146吨。(Gold.com, Inc.) 💰 更值得关注的是黄金租赁模式： 最初公布的黄金租赁安排规模至少为 1亿美元，租赁利率约 1.75%/年。这意味着 Tether 持有的黄金并非全部“躺在金库里”，其中一部分正在进入实体黄金市场并产生融资收益。(SEC) 🔥 真正的新故事不是“Tether拥有很多黄金”。 市场早已知道这一点。 真正值得关Position size is part of the strategy.
$BTC can handle a bigger core position. $ETH can have a smaller one, but I still want to see the flows before adding.
$DOGE and $ZEC are more like satellite plays. Once those smaller positions start taking up most of the portfolio, one bad session can wipe out a week of gains.
Volatility doesn’t mean conviction.
Keep the size under control.
NFA. DYOR.
#DailyOrbit But don’t mistake a muted reaction for a confirmed recovery. 📉 Three things still deserve attention: 1️⃣ History may be repeating: BTC and ETH are showing a familiar pattern of rally → consolidation → weakness. If the current range breaks, the next move could be sharp. 2️⃣ Momentum is fading: Daily MACD remains under pressure, and a bearish crossover could appear soon. A daily signal matters more than short-term hourly noise. 3️⃣ Capital is becoming cautious: Recent spot outflows suggest some lPosition size is part of the strategy.
$BTC can handle a bigger core position. $ETH can have a smaller one, but I still want to see the flows before adding.
$DOGE and $ZEC are more like satellite plays. Once those smaller positions start taking up most of the portfolio, one bad session can wipe out a week of gains.
Volatility doesn’t mean conviction.
Keep the size under control.
NFA. DYOR.there are still two ticking bombs: the neighboring project has had a delisting risk label since July; on-chain, there's an address holding over 76% of the supply (most likely a bridge contract, but concentration is concentration).
This token is no longer an investment, it's a gamble. Either accept it as a short-term frenzy before the chain shuts down, or just watch the show.#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal 9/18 Early Morning BTC and ETH Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
Like a drawn bowstring that remains silent until it suddenly pierces the clouds; trading is similar—narrow consolidation is the buildup, and the decision is the release of the arrow. Endure the quiet to catch the movement; hold through the volatility to capture the trend. Reviewing yesterday's intraday market, before the early morning decision announcement, BTC consolidated narrowly between 75000-75800; within minutes after the announcement, it quickly surged above 76100, reaching a daily high of 77149 and a low of 75025. ETH showed a clearly stronger intraday performance than BTC, hitting a high of 2484 and a low of 2365. In live trading, yesterday included three BTC trades and one ETH trade. Specifically: in the afternoon rebound, a short BTC position secured 514 points profit; later in the evening, as the market rebounded and stabilized, a short-term long BTC position gained 722 points; after the price surged, a short-term short position captured another 790 points profit. ETH's intraday trend was relatively strong, with a short-term long position gaining 32 points. Overall, all four trades were profitable, with BTC's three trades totaling 2026 points profit and ETH's one trade gaining 32 points, showing smooth rhythm control. The subsequent strategy remains to buy on pullbacks.
From the daily chart perspective, BTC previously experienced a strong one-sided rally from the bottom, then encountered resistance and pulled back at relatively high levels. It is now in a phase of oscillating decline, digesting profit-taking. Technically, the daily Bollinger Bands middle and lower bands are opening downward; the current price is approaching the lower band support area, and recent candlesticks have long lower shadows, indicating strong buying support below and a clear slowdown in the downtrend. The subsequent trading approach remains unchanged: follow the overall bullish trend and patiently wait for pullbacks. Focus on price stabilization near key lower support zones; after clear signs of a bottom or stop in decline appear, selectively enter long positions to play the secondary upward move after correction. The approach is to lead, not chase highs, patiently wait for pullbacks, set proper stop losses, and control position size.
BTC early morning suggestion: go long near 76000-76500, target 78000
ETH early morning suggestion: go long near 2430-2450, target 2550
$BTC $ETH
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Milestone!
El Salvador's national BTC reserve has officially reached 7,777 coins.
But what truly deserves attention is not the number 7,777 itself, but the buying method behind it.
Starting from March 16, 2024, El Salvador set a strict rule:
Buy 1 BTC every day.
Buy when it rises, buy when it falls.
Buy during crashes, buy during surges.
Buy during market panic, buy during market frenzy.
For 916 consecutive days, without a single day off.
This is no longer an ordinary "dollar-cost averaging."
This is a national-level dollar-cost averaging.
A sovereign nation treating BTC as a long-term reserve asset, continuously increasing its BTC holdings through concrete actions.
Currently, the 7,777 BTC are valued at about $594 million, with an average cost of about $55,718, showing an unrealized gain of approximately 37%.
Looking at this $594 million alone, the direct impact on the entire $BTC market is actually limited.
But the real impact is the signal:
Previously, individuals bought BTC.
Then institutions bought BTC.
Now, countries are starting to continuously buy BTC.
And the most impressive part is, it doesn’t try to guess the top or bottom.
It just follows one rule:
Buy one coin every day.
If more and more countries start building their own BTC reserves in the future, the real market change might not be a sudden massive buy order on a single day, but BTC gradually transitioning from an "investment product" to a long-term reserve asset for some countries.
What El Salvador is doing now might just be the first batch of experiments. 🔥 $BTC / $ETH — TWO DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO FEE OPTIMIZATION
₿ $BTC → Reduce transaction overhead
◆ $ETH → Reduce execution complexity
Bitcoin transactions can become heavier when they reference many UTXOs, while Ethereum gas costs rise with additional computation and storage changes.
So the optimization problem looks different:
$BTC → Minimize data overhead.
$ETH → Minimize execution.
Different architectures, different ways to make transactions more efficient.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 Everyone is talking about stocks moving on-chain
But here’s the part people might be missing
A tokenized stock isn’t supposed to be just a token that follows a stock’s price
Under the SEC’s new framework, qualifying tokenized stocks need to represent the underlying equity rights — including things like dividends and voting rights
That’s a BIG distinction
Because if blockchain can represent actual ownership, not just price exposure
then tokenization starts looking less like a crypto experiment$ZEC ZEC has caused me losses several times in this wave; continuing to enter short positions only led to being squeezed out,
This rally is essentially a textbook case of a 【short squeeze (liquidation of short positions)】
Short squeeze principle (in one sentence)
A large number of traders keep opening short positions at low levels, betting that ZEC's rebound is over and it will fall; however, positive news arrives, the price keeps rising, and short positions are continuously liquidated. Short position liquidation = the exchange automatically buys ZEC at market price to close positions, the buying pressure pushes the price higher, triggering more short liquidations, creating a positive feedback loop of forced short covering.
Key data for this round
From September 2 to 6 during the rally phase, over 90% of ZEC liquidations across the network were short positions.
A well-known whale heavily shorted tens of thousands of ZEC around $444, holding and adding to the position as the price surged past $1000, with unrealized losses reaching up to $25 million, eventually being liquidated.
In just a few days, tens of millions of dollars in short positions were continuously liquidated, directly driving ZEC's violent surge from $900 to over $1250.
ZEC has a small circulating supply and poor spot liquidity; it doesn't require massive capital, as the passive buying from short position liquidations alone can rapidly push the price up $BTC is very likely to continue consolidating between 74,500 and 79,000 in the short term, with potential to break new highs.
The short liquidations above are accumulating more and more, and this market still seems a bit unable to fall‼️‼️
In the $75,982 to $83,575 range, short liquidations have totaled about $4.79 billion, while long liquidations near 67,861 are only $2.05 billion.
There is indeed selling pressure, but too many shorts can easily become fuel for the next rally, just like the last time.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September and the dot plot is more hawkish 🦅, as if the bad news is fully priced in.
To break above 79,000, the ETF needs net inflows for two to three consecutive days.
A deep drop below 76,000 requires new forced selling.
75,000 is the current watershed. Holding it means waiting for time to create space; if it doesn't hold, look for 73,000 to 74,000.The entire hearing did not mention cryptocurrencies, but the macro backdrop of uncontrollable deficits and high yields continues to suppress risk appetite, with $ZEC also constrained by this liquidity environment. Going forward, it is worth observing whether U.S. Treasury yields can stabilize below 5% and whether the cash distribution plan provides a credible funding source.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal meme coin has entered the dictionary, MEME market only gives 0.38%
Rare to see, the insider slang "meme coin" has been included in the dictionary—$MEME only climbed from 0.000524 to 0.000526, +0.38%. I buy the dip and don’t chase the highs.
Currently reported at 0.000526, 24h +4.78%, volume ratio just 1.008.
The dictionary added 1,400 words, mainstream adoption is a long-term logic; but recognition does not equal money entering the market, the market expresses with 0.38%: not buying it.
Technicals don’t support either. Daily MACD shows a death cross near zero line, MA7 pressing MA30, multi-timeframe bearish, long-short ratio 1.924 is tight.
The overall market is bottoming and oscillating, 68 up 5 down, BTC holding at 76798.6; crypto concept stocks average +4.02%, risk appetite not collapsed.
Resistance above: 0.000528 (24h high, only talk about continuation if volume expands)
Support below: 0.000524→0.000519 (if broken, watch 0.000497)
My judgment: enter in batches between 0.000524–0.000519, stop loss if breaks 0.000519; if volume expands and breaks 0.000528, target 0.000538, then take profits.
Likes are the energy for me to watch the market.
$MEME $BTCThe money-flow signal was in the positioning, not the print. When the Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds target to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023, $BTC slipped to $75,355 within an hour and then clawed back to roughly $75,813 — a round trip that leaves the asset essentially where it started. That flatness is the story: traders had already assigned a greater than 90% probability to the September move, so the marginal dollar had repositioned days earlier. Over seven sessions, $BTC is do#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Major dual bills advancing simultaneously, the crypto community welcomes a historic policy window!
✅【Strategic BTC Reserve Act ARMA】Passed by House committee vote 28:21
The bill requires the U.S. Treasury to establish a national-level Bitcoin reserve, with federally seized BTC locked for at least 20 years. Currently, the U.S. federal government holds about 320,000 BTC. Once implemented, this equals official long-term lockup, reducing market sell pressure and granting BTC the status of a national strategic asset.
✅【Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act】Advancing simultaneously
Simplifies crypto tax rules: small on-chain gas fees exempted, small stablecoin transactions not taxed per transaction.
Core significance: lowers tax reporting barriers for ordinary users of crypto assets, improves compliance framework, attracts institutional capital, clarifies industry regulation, no longer a gray area.
⚠️ Key to distinguish expectations from reality:
This is only committee approval so far; it still requires full House vote and Senate review, so a long negotiation period remains before official enactment.
Market logic: policy benefits are priced in advance; when news is finalized, gains may be realized with a spike and pullback.
Trading approach:
For holders, take profits in batches on rallies; do not go all-in betting the bill will pass immediately;
For non-holders, do not chase news-driven spikes; wait for pullbacks to support levels before reassessing.
On the macro side, keep monitoring U.S. Treasury yields and dollar liquidity; policy is a positive factor but not a guarantee of a one-way rally.
Contract market volatility is extreme; strictly control leverage; black swan events can occur anytime. The technical consensus level is 6.70: today it touched a high of 6.893 but was pushed back, indicating selling pressure above. It has roughly doubled in 30 days, so the valuation is not cheap, and a pullback could come at any time. Everyone should be aware of the risks.#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal ZEC to 2000?!
When I saw this comment in the comment section, I was drinking tea and almost choked.
Bro, you really dare to shout.
I've been hunting altcoins for years, I've seen stubborn ones, but never this stubborn.
The NU7 vote passed, and the mining company Fortitude going public on Nasdaq is also real news, but take a closer look—rising from 1200 to 1513, a gain of over 300 points has already chewed up all these positives to nothing.
When the news officially lands, that will be the signal for the big players to dump.
2000? First ask those who chased in at 1400, can they hold on to 1600?
Some say my short positions are floating with big losses but I’m still stubborn.
I just laughed.
My short at 1360 and the old short at 1170 are indeed showing green on the books, but the green is just numbers, not the direction.
The market is drifting down under the shadow of the Fed's super week, Bitcoin and Ethereum are weak,
only ZEC is reversing against the flow alone, this isn’t an independent rally, it’s a last flash before death.
Big money is withdrawing, retail is rushing in, and you talk to me about 2000?
I only see the abyss below 1000.
The nickname "Altcoin Nemesis" isn’t given for nothing.
The more these counter-trend pump coins, the more excited I get, because the shorts’ profits are the richest.
When this wave of sentiment fades, ZEC’s catch-up drop will be fiercer than anyone else’s.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $CNPY This coin currently really has me a bit confused.
Although it has already launched on Binance Alpha, it's still a different matter from officially going live on the Binance main site for spot trading.
What’s more noteworthy is that CNPY’s recent perpetual contract funding rates are extremely unusual. Public data shows that platforms like OKX and Gate have funding rates clearly in the negative zone, indicating that the current contract market’s long-short structure is complex and cannot be simply explained by “too crowded short positions” to justify the price movement.
So even though I currently hold long positions, I don’t have the confidence to hold them long-term with peace of mind.
CNPY itself has a relatively small circulating market cap, but recent trading volume and derivatives volume are very high, and the price has just experienced a rapid surge. Under this structure, if liquidity changes, it’s not surprising to see sharp fluctuations or quick pullbacks in a short time. CoinMarketCap data shows it hit a phase high of about $0.418 on September 16, then has clearly pulled back since.
So my current thinking is simple:
Protect profits when you have them; don’t blindly chase highs;
When funding rates are abnormal, focus on observing the long-short structure and position changes;
Without clear trend confirmation, don’t treat short-term moves as long-term trends.
This kind of small-cap, highly volatile new coin can bring opportunities quickly, but risks can come even faster.
$CNPY #CNPY #Crypto #BinanceAlphaI rarely recommend coins because every recommendation carries someone’s trust.
I called UNI and LIT correctly this year, but I didn’t hold long enough. During the downturn, I moved into BTC.
Getting the direction right but missing the gains taught me an important lesson: strategy matters as much as selection.
My recent focus on $NEAR and other trades is about sharing experience, not chasing hype.
Trade with patience. Survive the cycles. Let the results follow. 📊
#CryptoTreasuryBuying $24.3 billion spent on fighter jets, this has nothing to do with the crypto world.
But I want to share an observation.
The US approved this deal, Saudi Arabia pays, Lockheed gets the order. Money flows from oil-producing countries to the military-industrial complex, making a full circle, and has nothing to do with the market we are watching.
So why mention it?
Because such large arms sales often mean geopolitical tensions have tightened another notch. When risk aversion rises, risky assets take a hit first, and $BTC is no exception.
Of course, this is just background, not a reason to dump the market tomorrow.
As an experienced trader, I’m now numb to macro news; I treat both good and bad news as noise first.
If you really want to watch something, watch one thing: whether funds start withdrawing from risky assets in the next few days. If they do, that’s the real signal. If not, this $24.3 billion is just news.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ $BTC Major breakthrough for permanent U.S. military bases in Poland! This is not just a simple troop increase; it is a key move by the U.S. to reshape the power order of continental Europe. Trump released a major message on social media: major good news! Thanks to the decisive leadership of my friend, Polish President Karol Nawrocki, significant progress has been made in establishing a U.S. military base in Poland. If the plan is implemented, the location will be announced soon, marking a historic step for the great US-Poland alliance. This piece of news is by no means a simple defense news story. To understand the underlying game, we must extend the historical dimension, tracing from culture, history, politics, and all the way to macro liquidity, commodities, and crypto asset pricing logic. 1. Historical Aspect: Poland's Survival Anxiety in the Millennia-Old Cracks—a Game That Has Spanned a Century Within Europe's geopolitical map, Poland sits at the crossroads of the Eurasian Plain, lacking natural mountain barriers, and has long been a battleground for great powers. Historically, Poland was partitioned three times, and under the pincer attacks of Russia, Prussia, and Austria-Hungary, it lost over a century of national existence. This history, etched into national memory, has forged deep-rooted security fears in Poland. During the Cold War, Poland was part of the Warsaw Pact and served as the frontline for the Soviet Union's westward projection; After the Soviet Union's collapse, Poland decisively turned to the West, joining NATO and the European Union as a core representative of the 'New Europe.' For decades, Poland has actively lobbied the United States to upgrade its rotating garrison into a permanent military base. In its early years, it even proposed to fund $2 billion of its own construction, naming it 'Fort Trump.'Reasons why BTC did not drop after the interest rate hike was implemented
1. The 25bp hike was fully priced in advance, no unexpected negative news
Before the meeting, the interest rate futures priced in a 90%+ probability of a rate hike. The market had already anticipated a 25 basis point increase, so the price had factored in this negative news before the meeting.
The rate hike landing = all negative news is out, and since there was no sudden, unexpected 50bp hike, naturally the market did not crash.
The real risk for the market is not "a 25bp hike," but the dot plot and Powell's speech hinting at continued hikes afterward. This risk is delayed and slowly ferments, not causing an instant sharp drop at the decision.
2. Deleveraging was done in advance before the meeting, selling pressure released early
In the period before the meeting, regulatory rumors and rising US Treasury yields had already triggered a BTC pullback, causing many leveraged long positions to be liquidated early.
Before the decision, market leverage positions had already decreased, so there were no large numbers of longs waiting to sell, lacking the force to crash the market.
3. ETF funds provided support, with buy orders absorbing selling pressure
Spot ETFs are an important source of incremental BTC funds. Institutional spot buying hedged against short-term speculative selling, thus stabilizing the price.
Meme coins (USE) could rally only because BTC remained stable without crashing, and risk appetite slightly warmed up.
4. Distinction: Interest rates ≠ everything, there is also asset narrative competition
Traditional logic: rate hikes are negative for risk-free assets.
But currently, the market is also trading US fiscal, debt, and inflation issues. BTC carries a partial gold-like hedge narrative, so it does not blindly fall every time rates rise.
Key reminder: No drop ≠ positive news
This time there was just no sudden shock in the short term. The dot plot indicates there is likely one more hike this year, meaning high rates will be maintained longer.
If US Treasury yields continue to rise, pressure will gradually appear, and there is still a risk of decline later.
BTC is just stabilizing the large cap market; small cap Meme coins are driven by sentiment speculation and independent trends. Once BTC weakens, Meme coins will fall sharply. Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE: The number of top accounts is more long-biased, but the position distribution is more short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.949, top positions long-short ratio is 0.748; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 4.662; price increased by 0.02%, position value changed by +0.04%.
$ZEC: The number of top accounts is more short-biased, but the position distribution is more long-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.356, top positions long-short ratio is 1.283; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 0.331; price increased by 0.83%, position value changed by -3.23%. The overall market account structure is short-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.
$WLD: The number of top accounts is more long-biased, but the position distribution is more short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.260, top positions long-short ratio is 0.840; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.183; price increased by 0.32%, position value changed by +1.18%.
DOGE, ZEC, WLD: The side with the majority in account numbers is opposite to the side with the majority in positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
DOGE, WLD: The overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the top position bias. On the market maker's ledger, $ZEC currently has a much larger short position than long, which is why the price can keep pushing upward.
In the past, rallies relied on retail investors chasing longs; now it's reversed, with shorts becoming the fuel. Every time the price steps up, shorts are forced to cover, and the buying pushes the price higher. In this chain, market makers only need to maintain a small amount of chips to leverage the move.
But once the shorts are fully cleared, only longs remain on the opposite side. At that point, the side with thin liquidity will flip, and the pullback will be sharper than the rise. Currently, we can only confirm that shorts have not been exhausted yet.
To be honest, watching when the funding rate turns from negative to positive is the real signal of a shift between longs and shorts.
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 $ZEC Believe it or not, I think $ZEC is approaching a major move tonight.
The price is holding around $1,350–$1,370, but I’m not convinced this strength is accumulation. After rallying from $1,086 to nearly $1,400, price is now moving sideways while MA5/10/20 compress together.
Volume is fading, MACD momentum is cooling, and open interest remains elevated. To me, that looks like leverage building rather than healthy spot demand
I’m still holding my short and remain bearish.#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 $CORE currently gives me the feeling of not "quietly accumulating strength," but rather that market confidence is continuously being eroded.
Since the 2023 peak, CORE has already retraced over 99%. Even though the broader market hasn't experienced particularly severe systemic declines recently, CORE has continued to weaken over the past week, dropping about 11%. This relative weakness itself is worth noting.
What’s more troublesome is that the validator reward vulnerability that appeared at the end of August has further increased market uncertainty. Core disclosed that approximately 255 million CORE tokens were prematurely released into circulation, of which about 186.15 million were recovered through network upgrades and on-chain liquidation, but around 69 million tokens were transferred to external addresses and are still being tracked and handled.
After the incident, some exchanges temporarily suspended CORE network deposits and withdrawals, and Core initiated an emergency hard fork to fix the reward mechanism. Although the official statement said user assets themselves were not affected, short-term market concerns about supply, liquidity, and ecosystem confidence clearly have not completely disappeared.
Additionally, the issue of CORE’s token release schedule still warrants ongoing observation. Current public data still shows the token is in a continuous unlocking/release cycle, so future increases in circulating supply may continue to exert price pressure. The U.S. 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) auction concluded with a winning yield of 2.653%, marking a new high since the 2008 financial crisis. Demand for this issuance fell short of market expectations.
The U.S. Treasury issued $19 billion of 10-year TIPS, with the winning yield 2 basis points higher than the pre-issuance estimate. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.24, below the average of 2.43 from the previous three auctions. The allocation ratio to overseas indirect bidders declined, while primary dealers' share increased, reflecting upward pressure on long-term real interest rates.
Impact analysis on BTC and ETH
TIPS yields represent the real risk-free rate, a core macro pricing anchor for crypto assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum themselves generate no cash flow; rising real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding such assets, prompting capital to flow out of risk assets toward U.S. Treasuries, which will suppress crypto price valuations in the short term.
The weak demand in this auction partly indicates ongoing expectations of tightening liquidity, a short-term negative for the crypto market; on the other hand, it also reflects market concerns about long-term U.S. debt supply pressures. If fiscal worries intensify later, it could strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity in the medium to long term.
In the short term, focus on amplified market volatility caused by rising real interest rates.Last night the FOMC rate hike was finalized, and I didn't place a single order in any of my three accounts. Someone asked me, "Short God, why didn't you catch this rebound?" Because before the binary event was announced, I was fully invested betting on a direction—that's gambling, not trading. $BTC I'm waiting for exhaustion and a breakdown, not just the heartbeat of a single bullish candle. Low-frequency big bets mean—most of the time you should stay empty-handed, only pushing chips when the cards truly favor you. That card hasn't been revealed yet. Do you think being out of position is uncomfortable, or is it more painful to hold a position and bet wrong on the direction?SEC представила «инновационное исключение» — новый порядок, который позволяет торговать токенизированными акциями американских компаний прямо на публичных блокчейнах. Исключение действует пять лет и снимает с квалифицированных платформ обязанность регистрироваться как биржи. Торговля возможна через ончейн-пулы ликвидности (AMM). При этом синтетические токены, которые лишь отслеживают цену акций, под действие исключения не попадают. Компании также сохраняют право запретить токенизацию своих бумагMost people treat stop-loss as "admitting a mistake," so they hold on as losses grow — this is the deadliest misconception during a volatility surge phase. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is 50, indicating neutral sentiment, but $SYN's 30 candlesticks have an amplitude of 48.48%, which is a high volatility structure. At this time, position size is more important than direction.
From a technical perspective, $SYN is currently priced at 0.18, with MA5=0.1879 still above MA20=0.1837, so the mid-term moving averages have not deteriorated; however, the MACD histogram is -0.002678, indicating short-term bearish momentum, RSI=50.6 is in a balanced zone between bulls and bears, and the Bollinger Bands [0.1582, 0.2092] are very wide. Funding rate is +0.0022%, longs are somewhat crowded but not extreme. Overall judgment: slightly bullish, but only buy on pullbacks, do not chase highs.
Entry reference is 0.172–0.178 (near the Bollinger middle band and MA20 support zone); take profit 1 target is 0.196 (just below the previous high resistance near the upper Bollinger band), take profit 2 target is 0.209 (upper Bollinger band); stop loss at 0.158 (below the lower Bollinger band, breaking this means structural damage). If the price effectively breaks below 0.158 and the MACD histogram continues to expand bearish, you must exit unconditionally. In the worst case, the retracement could reach the previous low area, and single trade losses should be controlled within 2% of the total position.Maybe the biggest crypto story today isn’t Bitcoin.
It’s stocks moving onto the blockchain.
The SEC has opened a temporary regulatory path for certain platforms to trade tokenized U.S. stocks on-chain.
And that changes the conversation
Crypto was once about creating a new financial system
Now blockchain technology is being tested as infrastructure for the existing financial system
24/7 markets.
On-chain settlement
Tokenized ownership
The interesting question isn’t whether this sounds crazyA girl I met through crypto trading, @如鱼得水。。。, can be said to be the toughest trader I've ever talked to. Actually, being wrong about the direction isn't the main issue; the key is whether your position size supports your confidence.
Let's look at her position, $ZEC short:
Opened at $816.75, current price about $1,500, 6 ZEC, 50x leverage, floating loss about $4100.
To truly break even, ZEC needs to return to $816.75, which means a drop of about 45% from the current price, a very difficult task.
ZEC's recent rise has been driven by privacy narratives, institutional interest, network upgrades, and short squeezes, with the market still in a high volatility phase. 
A reminder to all traders:
Don't gamble on the top with high leverage, and don't blindly add to losing positions. Control risk first, then talk about breaking even.
Trading doesn't mean you have to make back your losses immediately; first, ensure you can stay in the market.
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 🩸 -1241.01%! The 50x short on UNI ultimately couldn't hold and was cut, a bloody lesson that must be shared to warn myself:
Entry point 5.363, exit point 6.693. Initially thought "small position for fun, 50x to bet on a pullback," but a main upward wave taught me a harsh lesson.
Three costly lessons from reviewing this trade:
* "Small position" is the biggest poison for holding a trade:
Always felt the position was light, margin sufficient, so even a 50% or 100% drawdown was comforted with "it's okay, I can hold." Little did I know that with a small position and no hard stop loss, the mindset completely collapses, turning "trial-and-error trading" into "passive lock-in."
* 50x high leverage shorting against the trend is pure suicide:
Once the daily trend breaks upward, any resistance is paper-thin. Frequently guessing tops and shorting during a strong bull wave, every small fluctuation is magnified into a disaster under 50x leverage.
* Operation distortion caused by sunk cost:
At -500%, rationality was gone. Even knowing the trend reversed completely, I just wanted to wait for a so-called "big bearish candle spike to recover." The final result was passively moving stop losses and adding margin until forced to cut losses at -1241%.
The market is always right; the only mistake is wishful thinking. Sharing this is not shameful, but a respect for the market and admitting mistakes.
What's the worst loss ratio you've held through? Let me see in the comments that I'm not alone... $UNI ⚠️ $CORE | WEAKNESS OR EXHAUSTION?
$CORE isn’t showing the kind of relative strength you want to see.
The bigger concern is the combination of:
📉 Persistent price weakness
🔓 Ongoing token unlocks
⚠️ Validator-related disruption
🌐 Questions around network confidence
There’s no single dramatic selloff driving the story — it’s the sustained weakness that stands out.
Is $CORE showing accumulation… or exhaustion? 👀
#dailyorbit #CORE #Crypto #Altcoins#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Late-night funds continue to screen for strength and weakness; who will break through first among BTC, BICO, and SLX?
BTC remains the market's directional anchor for now, with short-term focus on whether the consolidation zone can hold. If BTC retraces with shrinking volume and the lows do not move lower, it indicates selling pressure is weakening; if approaching the upper boundary again with increased active trading, $BTC's volume breakout can easily drive a rebound in risk appetite. Consecutive failed rallies require caution for prolonged consolidation.
BICO is more about the coordination of chip distribution and volume. The narrowing retracement during the sideways phase indicates that floating chips are being digested sufficiently. If $BICO's price continues to run close to resistance while the lows gradually rise, breakout conditions will mature step by step; if it breaks above the upper boundary with volume and holds, short-term elasticity is likely to open up. A volume-less rally should be watched for rapid pullbacks.
SLX currently focuses on whether funds can form continuous attacks; short-term strength depends on follow-through after the breakout. If SLX retraces without breaking previous lows and volume starts to moderately increase, it shows buying is strengthening; later, if $SLX breaks resistance and maintains high turnover, acceleration is likely. Volume stagnation after a rise should be watched for profit-taking.
Looking ahead, upward movement depends on BTC stabilizing, BICO increasing volume, and SLX breaking through; downward movement depends on whether BTC loses the consolidation zone and which of BICO or SLX breaks previous lows first. True strength requires simultaneous breakout, volume, and follow-through.Last night, as soon as the Fed raised rates, I immediately flipped and dumped my $ETH short position.
Shorted at 2520, 40x leverage, position about 78,000 U.
Honestly, my hands were shaking when placing the order.
But the dollar surged to a seven-week high, with more rate hikes expected this year.
In this environment, I really don’t believe it can keep rallying nonstop. Now it’s dropped to around 2448.
Floating profit is already 1400 U, which makes me feel much more at ease.
If 2470 can’t hold, I’m watching 2420 and 2380 levels.
Even if it really rebounds to 2650, I won’t panic.
Instead, I’m waiting for a second entry opportunity.
$ZEC is the real crazy one, up nearly 25% in one day, hitting 1420.
With the NU7 upgrade and Ledger integration, the news is extremely strong.
But with such a sharp rise, I’m actually worried; if 1450 can’t hold, first watch 1350, and if weaker, then 1280.
Someone has to catch the falling knife when it rises this fast, right?
$SPCX also returned to 158, up more than 7% today, with the Starship orbital test expected on the 22nd.
I see 158 to 162 as resistance for now; only if it really breaks above 165 will the bears admit defeat.
Frankly, this market is a fake bull market; I choose to keep shorting because staying alive is more important than making money.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Not convinced!
Dog whales, keep trying to pump the price
Let's see how much more you can push it
There are so many trapped positions above
Do you really think it can hold up all the way?
$ETH is now rebounding near 2472
Price is above the three moving averages
The short-term rebound structure is still intact
But 2483 is the first resistance
Above that, there are two layers of selling pressure at 2577 and the previous high of 2615
As long as it can't firmly hold above 2483
This wave looks more like a rebound within a bearish trend
If it breaks below 2440, watch 2401
If 2401 fails to hold, it may retest 2366
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points
BTC and ETH ETFs saw a combined outflow of nearly $592 million in a single day
Liquidity remains tight
The mid-term does not support blindly chasing highs according to market data
But I can't just rely on tough talk for this trade
40 ETH short position average price is 2324.5
Forced liquidation price is 2604.68
The forced liquidation level is even below the previous high of 2615
Once 2577 is effectively broken, risk must be controlled
Otherwise, even if the direction is right in the end
The position might be gone first
——
$BEAT 24-hour trading volume is only $2.65 million
Market cap is about $28.59 million
During the previous crash, bulls were liquidated for about $1.54 million
The biggest current catalyst is product updates and user growth
There is not yet strong enough capital to drive it
Holding near 0.080 can only expect an oversold rebound
Only reclaiming 0.0956 to 0.099 can be considered a trend reversal
Breaking below 0.079 means watching out for 0.0655
——
SNDK is not an ordinary altcoin
Currently mainly trading between 1508 and 1582
No chasing in the middle range
Consider low longs after a stable retest between 1508 and 1520
Only follow the trend if volume breaks above 1582 and holds on the retest
If it rallies near 1582 again but falls back
Look toward around 1520
When the chip sector rebounded, SNDK also rose about 5.7%
So don't stubbornly short it
This kind of asset is best played with low leverage at the edges
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $ETH catch up needs a reason: fee spike, flow flip, or $BTC already done with its move. Hope is not a reason.
If $ETH only rallies when BTC is already extended, you are buying leftover beta at a worse price#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal $ZEC
Narrative mainline: Privacy + ZK zero-knowledge proof
Market narrative: Bitcoin is insurance against fiat currency, ZEC is privacy insurance for Bitcoin; optional privacy (t/z dual addresses) + zk-SNARK, balancing privacy and auditability, different from Monero XMR's mandatory privacy, which is completely unfriendly to regulators. Under the current AI + tightening data regulation environment, the privacy coin sector as a whole is being revalued by capital.
Risk points (key, similar to the futures liquidation logic you saw earlier)
ETF benefits have already been realized: the market has largely priced in the rally in advance, making it easy to "buy the rumor, sell the fact" when benefits materialize; if funds flow out or ETF size shrinks later, a rapid pullback is likely.
Small market cap, extreme volatility, once contract leverage is heavily used, a quick correction can directly trigger liquidation.
Regulatory uncertainties remain: although the SEC case is closed, countries' attitudes toward privacy coins fluctuate, and exchanges may delist or disable shielded address functions at any time.
Long-term narrative depends on the NU7 upgrade rollout; if the upgrade is delayed or underperforms expectations, valuation will be severely hit.
Privacy coins are naturally prone to being labeled as related to money laundering, and long-term regulatory pressure persists. Oil prices finally seem to be cooling. Reports say repairs on Saudi Arabia’s damaged pipeline could restore 50% capacity within days and full output in about six weeks. WTI fell 3.2% to near $102, while Brent slipped below $106. The easing supply risk is unwinding the oil premium. For BTC, cheaper oil could reduce inflation pressure and ease rate concerns. Still, don’t call it a reversal yet—wait for actual flow recovery. For now, patience beats chasing.#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 🔥 $XRP / $SOL / $ADA | THREE DIFFERENT ENGINES
$XRP → Institutional access
$SOL → On-chain execution
$ADA → Decentralized infrastructure
$XRP leans on capital integration.
$SOL leans on usage and liquidity.
$ADA leans on decentralization and long-term development.
Three different engines.
When liquidity returns, which one turns adoption into lasting demand?
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 I'm coming in for a short cap
Shorting $ZEC for fun
The short position on $ETH has a high tolerance for error, so I'm not closing it for now
ZEC surged from 1040 to around 1490, the short-term slope is already quite extreme. I tried a short near 1471, currently with a slight floating loss, first watching the 1490–1500 resistance range.
The 1-hour volume and MACD haven't shown obvious weakening yet, so this trade is just a high-level trial. If volume increases and it holds above 1500, handle it promptly; if it falls back, first watch 1450, then around 1400.
Still holding ETH. Average price 2538, current price around 2470, remaining short position has about 1600U floating profit, liquidation price at 3225, enough room to maneuver.
2475–2500 remains immediate resistance; price hasn't reclaimed 2500, overall still a rebound structure after a decline.
For ZEC, I only allow trial space above 1500; if wrong, withdraw; ETH continues to be held according to the 2500 resistance. High-level trades follow discipline, profitable trades require patience, I don't mix these two.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $ZEC looks ready for a major move tonight. Don’t mistake the 1350–1370 range for strength. After rallying from 1086 to 1397, price is stalling while MA5/10/20 compress, volume fades, MACD weakens, and KDJ stays flat. OI remains elevated despite no real spot expansion—leverage is stacking up. Bulls and bears are both crowded. If longs start closing, the unwind could accelerate fast. I’m still holding my short and staying bearish.#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve $SOLV is bearish in the short term; rebounds are opportunities to short, not to chase longs.
Conclusion first: SOLV current price is 0.00438, down 10.43% in 24h, MA5=0.00436 has crossed below MA20=0.004605, moving averages show a bearish alignment, MACD histogram at -2.502e-05 remains negative, RSI only 41.3, indicating weak rebound strength. Funding rate +0.0050% shows longs are still paying to hold positions, but price continues to decline, a typical "longs holding the bag, shorts collecting rent" structure—funding favors the shorts. The Fear & Greed Index at 50 is neutral, meaning the drop is not panic selling but orderly unloading; the probability of a spike and pullback is higher than a direct reversal.
Trading suggestion: short in batches on rebounds to the 0.00455–0.00465 range (below MA20 and near the Bollinger middle band). Take profit 1 at 0.00420 (near the upper edge of Bollinger lower band 0.004079 and previous low support zone); take profit 2 at 0.00405 (Bollinger lower band, where oversold funds tend to take profit). Stop loss at 0.00478 (above MA20; if volume breaks above, the bearish structure fails).
Risk points: 30 candlesticks show about 36% amplitude, high volatility. If funding rate quickly turns negative, beware of short squeeze spikes caused by shorts covering; always use stop loss.BTC surged past 76775 on high volume, but the subsequent 1H candle closed back below the line
BTC just completed a strong yet barely sustained 4H breakout. The 4H volume from 20:00 to 00:00 was 2.93 times that of the previous 4H candle, closing at 76780.1, only $5.1 above the previous six 4H highs at 76775.0.
The 1H candle from 00:00 to 01:00 did not continue the advance, closing at 76757.5, falling back below the breakout line; meanwhile, comparable spot volume decreased by 21.54%. Perpetual contract open interest rose from $2.8958 billion to $2.9164 billion between 23:00 and 00:00, an increase of 0.71%. Since the open interest window and the subsequent spot 1H candle do not align in the same time bucket, we can only confirm that leverage increased again here, but cannot say that positions increased simultaneously with the price pullback.
Next, price needs to prove the breakout is valid: only if the 1H candle closes above 77167.3 can it be considered to have surpassed this 4H high; if the 1H candle closes below 76011.0, this volume breakout structure fails. Do you think the increase in open interest without price follow-through looks more like accumulation or a crowded breakout?
#BTC #TradingWatch🔥 $ETH | Interest rate cut implemented, the real market trend has yet to choose a direction
The interest rate cut has been implemented, and ETH once quickly surged to around $2,420, then the gains were partially retraced. More notably, trading volume remains low — currently it looks more like a consolidation phase waiting for a breakout rather than a clear one-sided trend.
Next, focus on 3 variables:
1️⃣ ETHA capital flow
If institutional funds can continue to flow in, rather than just short-term spikes, it would better validate that spot demand is strengthening.
2️⃣ EIP-8363
This proposal involves the balance between ETH issuance mechanism and burning. If net issuance is further reduced in the future, the supply-side narrative of ETH might change. However, it is still under governance and research discussion, not yet an implemented policy.
3️⃣ Glamsterdam upgrade
The official Ethereum roadmap shows Glamsterdam is still in the testing phase, expected to launch on mainnet in Q4 2026, focusing on improving L1 scalability, parallel processing, and data efficiency.
If capital flow, supply mechanism, and network scaling all show positive changes simultaneously, the market’s future valuation logic for ETH may no longer revolve solely around "smart contract platform" but will discuss more about its role as global settlement and financial infrastructure.
The most important thing now is not to chase the first upward candlestick, but to wait for the resonance of trading volume + capital flow + key upgrade progress.⚡
#FedFirst