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Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, September rate hike probability soars to 60%! How will the market move next week?
The nonfarm data was unexpectedly strong, and the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 60%. The CPI data next Friday (9.11) will be the key test to determine the final policy direction.
But here is a core misconception:
Although the rate hike expectation has already been reflected in recent stock market trends, what we really need to be wary of is not the "rate hike" action itself, but the economic signals behind it.
If the U.S. economy remains resilient and corporate profits continue to grow, then the valuation pressure caused by rising interest rates may not completely reverse the stock market's upward trend. Therefore, even if the rate hike occurs as scheduled in September, it should not be simply equated with the U.S. stock market entering a sustained decline phase.
A more critical variable emerges:
A rare "policy divergence"
Pay attention to a major piece of news that is easily overlooked: next Wednesday (9.9), the U.S. Treasury will launch an expanded version of the Treasury buyback program, with a scale as high as $4 billion!
What does this mean? The Treasury is "supporting" the market, while the Fed is "tightening" liquidity. This rare policy divergence must be viewed together! Bull and Bear Divergence: Who's Buying, Who's Selling?
On the Bull Side: The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to its highest since 2020, while its correlation with the S&P 500 has dropped to nearly zero. This indicates the market is treating Bitcoin as "digital gold" for allocation rather than a high-beta tech stock. The $3.5 billion net inflow into ETFs in August is a solid institutional buy. TD Cowen sets a year-end target price at $97,500, while Bernstein is more aggressive, seeing $150,000.
On the Bear Side: September is historically Bitcoin's weakest month, with an average decline of -2.95% since 2013. 68% of supply is in profit, indicating significant potential selling pressure. The $83,000-$86,000 range has a "ceiling" supply of up to 1.05 million long-term held Bitcoins. Fidelity Digital Assets also poured cold water: a rebound does not mean the bear market is over; November could still test new lows. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Tonight's non-farm payroll data itself is not particularly impressive, but what truly confuses the market is the White House's optimistic interpretation of this "bad news," even calling again for a rate cut. This stance is seen by outsiders as almost equivalent to the executive branch attempting to directly interfere with the Federal Reserve's independent decision-making, leaving many puzzled.📉
After the data release, the crypto market generally came under pressure, with Bitcoin and most major coins retreating; in contrast, the US stock market remained resilient, showing an independent upward trend, making this divergence quite peculiar. Meanwhile, some small-cap tokens like $SNDK and $SPCX recorded considerable gains, suggesting that capital seems to be searching for new narrative outlets.🧐
What is most worth cautioning about now is not the single data point itself, but the potential amplification of volatility caused by confusing policy signals. If the market interprets this move as a prelude to an economic recession, risk appetite may further contract; conversely, if seen as the beginning of a loosening cycle, capital flows could reverse. At this stage, maintaining observation and controlling positions may be more important than guessing the direction.⚠️
Risk warning: Market volatility is uncertain, and the above content does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments. #8月非农16 2,000 far exceeded expectations, interest rate hike bets heat up, rate hike probability jumped from 50% to 62%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.416%, the highest since January 2025. Bitcoin fell below $80,000. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. Everything seems reasonable: the economy is too strong → need to raise rates→ risk assets are under pressure. The chain is clear, the logic is complete. But if you break down the 162,000 figure, you'll see another picture: hourly wages have only risen 3.1% year-on-year, while inflation during the same period was 3.4%. This means that in this "strong enough to raise interest rates" job market, workers' real purchasing power is declining. The 162,000 new jobs have made the average wage of Americans lagging behind prices. A "strong" job market is making those in it poorer. And the market's reaction is to bet on rate hikes. This is the most unusual part of this news. Replace the subject with "that 3.1% hourly wage" If the subject is "non-farm payrolls," the story is "strong economy." If the subject is "rate hike probability," the story is "liquidity tightening." But if the subject is the hourly wage data completely overshadowed by the 162,000 yuan — a 3.1% year-on-year increase below 3.4% inflation, the entire narrative falls apart. What does a 3.1% year-on-year hourly wage indicate? It shows companies are willing to hire people at lower real wages. It shows that the price of "full employment" is workers losing their bargaining power. This shows that this "so strong it frightens the market" labor market is essentially expanding in quantity#TSLA无人出租车发布不及预期，股价跌近6%
$TSLA As of the close on September 4, Tesla's stock fell 5.92%, with a single-day market value evaporation of about $88 billion (approximately RMB 591 billion). During the session, it once dropped more than 6.2%, with market value declining from $1.49 trillion to about $1.39 trillion.
Tesla held the Cybercab driverless taxi launch event in Austin, Texas. This event was by invitation only, with no public live broadcast, and Tesla's official website did not release any related press releases. CEO Elon Musk himself did not appear. Musk only posted a pre-recorded video on the social platform X.
This sharply contrasts with Tesla's previous highly dramatic and theatrical product launches. Wall Street Journal columnist Tim Higgins bluntly stated that this move did not meet Musk's promised "robotaxi storm." Musk had claimed "Cybercab storm" on social media just hours before the event, creating a strong contrast with the low-key release.
The stock price decline results from a combination of sparse information from the launch, surprise regulatory scrutiny, and exposure of operational issues. Tesla's long-term narrative—growth through autonomous driving and Robotaxi business—has not fundamentally changed, but short-term uncertainty has significantly increased. Whether Tesla can reverse market sentiment through subsequent actions as before remains to be seen.#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出
Robinhood Chain is experiencing a very contradictory market phenomenon: on-chain fee revenue has surged significantly, yet capital has turned into a net outflow.
Deutsche Bank analysts have raised the target price for Robinhood from $115 to $136, maintaining a buy rating. The core logic is that Robinhood Chain's fee revenue growth has exceeded expectations, and traditional institutions have begun incorporating the earnings of this public chain into HOOD's valuation framework.
On-chain revenue data is very impressive: DeFiLlama data shows that mid-August daily on-chain revenue was less than $200,000, but on September 2 it surged directly to $4.01 million. Deutsche Bank estimates that annualized revenue could exceed $100 million.
However, risk signals have appeared simultaneously. On September 4, Ethereum saw a net capital inflow of $46.47 million, while Robinhood Chain experienced a net outflow of $21.07 million, making it the public chain with the highest capital outflow that day. The on-chain Meme coin hype has rapidly cooled, with MEME's market cap shrinking from $150 million to $40 million, and HOOD's stock price falling 2.09% accordingly.
The market's core question now is: can the explosive high on-chain revenue be converted into long-term stable cash flow, or is it merely a short-term bonus brought by Meme speculation?#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
The BTC to gold ratio has surged to its highest level since January. Can this strength continue?
The BTC to gold ratio has hit a new high for the year. Can this wave of strength hold?
Since BTC surpassed 80,000, I have been closely watching the comparison data between BTC and gold. Currently, 1 BTC can be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, the highest level since January this year.
Interestingly, the 90-day correlation between the two has also reached its highest point since 2020, indicating that the market is concerned about declining currency purchasing power and expanding debt, which is driving both gold and Bitcoin upward.
However, there have been changes on the funding side. In August, the US BTC ETF saw a net inflow overall, but entering early September, funds began to fluctuate back and forth, and institutions have not been continuously pushing in.
Opinions among experts are completely polarized; some continue to be optimistic about the bull market for scarce assets, while Jiang Zhuoer has already fully reduced his position near $82,050.
Whether BTC can continue to outperform gold depends on whether the selling pressure above the $80,000‑82,500 range can be absorbed. There is heavy selling pressure at this level, and if spot buying cannot keep up, a correction could easily occur.
Right now, there are solid reasons for both bullish and bearish views, so it’s unwise to blindly chase the highs. What do you think? Can BTC’s relative strength against gold continue? $ZEC Trust me, today's strategy will satisfy you. Don't forget to come back and thank me if you make a profit!
Position direction: Light long position.
Entry: 1025.5-1026
Take profit: 1040.00 - 1047.11
Position basis: Closing firmly above 1026 means completely freeing all trapped positions from the early session on September 5th. The upper vacuum zone reaches directly to 1047. This strategy space is only 2%, and weekend continuity is poor, so you must enter and exit quickly. Take partial profits at 1040, and don't be greedy to reach 1047. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🔥$BTC Nonfarm payrolls contradict Waller, next up are CPI and FOMC reports
In September, when trading BTC, don’t just focus on the 79k horizontal line; three reports are more useful than drawing lines. The first report, Nonfarm payrolls, is out: 162,000 far exceeds expectations. Waller recently dovishly said "if inflation continues to decline, we will hold steady," but with the employment surge, the dovish tone was immediately withdrawn by the personnel department; strong employment = economy not cooling = high interest rates can persist = interest-free assets get hit first. The second report, August CPI/core CPI around September 11: if core CPI is relatively hot month-over-month and oil prices push the energy component higher, the 10-year US Treasury yield will push above about 4.8%, making BTC’s 79k–81k resistance tougher; if core CPI cools, the market will reprice "one rate hike then pause," allowing a second test of 81k. The third report, FOMC on September 15–16: the key is not whether to hike 25bp, but the dot plot—if after hiking they say "watch the data," it could trigger a sell-off followed by a rebound; if they hint at another hike in December, BTC could fall back to 78k or even test 75k–76k.
Combined with chip data, it’s clearer: 68% of profit-taking is near 79k and can sell anytime; breaking the 71k short-term cost line will become a stop-loss wall; if the 83k–86k long-term supply is not absorbed, don’t talk about a trend. Expectation play: strong Nonfarm + strong CPI + ETF outflows again → test 78k, breaking 76k won’t hold; Nonfarm already priced in + weak CPI + ETF weekly net inflows → grind 79k to 81k, if volume expands at 81k then look to 83k. Chasing 81k low or deep drops without ETF support is risky.
$BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
BTC-gold ratio hits a new high since January, testing the sustainability of the scarce asset rally
After Bitcoin stabilized above the $80,000 mark, the market focus has shifted from a simple price breakthrough to whether its relative strength compared to the traditional safe-haven asset gold can continue.
From a macro perspective, this round of high-level consolidation is supported by two core conditions: the market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to cool down, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, opening up upside space for risk assets. There has been a structural change in capital flows; the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of funds overall in August, but since early September, capital flows have turned into two-way fluctuations, with institutions yet to form sustained one-sided buying, and incremental momentum has slowed.
A key indicator sends a signal: currently, one Bitcoin can be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold, with the BTC-gold ratio reaching the highest point since January this year. Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has climbed to its highest level since 2020. Behind this phenomenon lies the global market's shared concerns about debt expansion and fiat currency purchasing power dilution, with these two scarce assets being placed into the same allocation framework by investors.Storage Triumvirate Soars on September 4: SanDisk ($SNDK) closed at $1740, surging 11.90%; Micron ($MU) closed at $1016.59, up 6.10%; SK Hynix ADR ($SKHYNIX) closed at $177, rising 8.14%. Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) jumped 6.61% in a single day, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%.
Why the collective rebound? There are three core reasons:
1. AI computing power demand continues to explode. Dell's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with an AI server backlog of $95 billion, directly proving that tech giants are frantically buying every available storage wafer. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and NAND flash remain in short supply, with Micron's most advanced storage production lines booked through the end of 2026.
2. Severe supply-demand mismatch. According to TrendForce data, DRAM contract prices surged 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, while NAND Flash soared 70% to 75%. Major manufacturers are shifting capacity toward AI, further squeezing supply.
3. Institutions are actively bullish. Lynx Equity released a research report predicting years of shortages in the storage industry, setting price targets of $1325 for Micron and $2450 for SanDisk, effectively boosting market sentiment.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (September 5)
Bears dominated all day, long positions liquidated by one-sided clearing, early volume extremely shrank, 24-hour surge to $8,265 — extremely low concentration shows liquidations almost entirely released at the end of the session
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $127.48 $127.48 $0
4 hours $231.93 $231.93 $0
12 hours $231.93 $231.93 $0
24 hours $8,265.93 $8,265.93 $0
1-hour bears extremely dominated, long liquidation $127.48 while shorts $0; 4-hour bears maintained extreme dominance, volume slightly increased to $231.93; 12-hour bears maintained extreme dominance, volume completely stagnant (identical to 4-hour data); 24-hour bears extremely dominated close, long liquidation $8,265.93 while shorts $0, cumulative liquidation $8,265.93. Since short liquidation is always 0, leverage multiple cannot be calculated. Volume trajectory: $127→$231→$231→$8,265, 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 2.8% of 24-hour total, extremely low concentration — liquidations almost entirely released at the very last moment of the session. Leverage recommended to compress within 3x, direction highly consistent but volume small, avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 5
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations reigniting rate hike bets, Bitcoin under short-term pressure but the "digital gold" narrative remains intact, OKX Prophet includes FOMC decision in prediction pool.
📊 Nonfarm 162,000 far exceeds expectations: September rate hike probability returns to 60%
On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 55,000; July revised from -23,000 to +21,000; June revised from 20,000 to 31,000, totaling an upward revision of 55,000. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, hourly wage growth slowed to 3.6% YoY, the slowest since July 2024. CME shows September rate hike probability rising from 50/50 to about 60%, dollar surged, US Treasury yields sharply rose. Nonfarm is just the "appetizer" — September 11 CPI is the core variable deciding September rate hike.
₿ Bitcoin under short-term pressure: gold ratio remains high at 18.17
After nonfarm, Bitcoin retreated from above $81,000, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000. Short-term suppression comes from rising rate hike expectations, but as of September 4, Bitcoin-to-gold ratio rose to 18.17, the highest since January. The revaluation of fiat credit after US debt surpasses $40 trillion is driving investors to buy both Bitcoin and gold to hedge government debt inflation risk. The "digital gold" narrative remains intact.
🔮 OKX Prophet launches FOMC rate prediction
OKX "Prophet" Season 2 has included September FOMC rate decision prediction in the pool, users can use free XP to judge whether the Fed will hike rates, sharing a $600,000 prize pool covering football, esports, F1, and macro data tracks.
💎 Summary
August nonfarm 162,000 far exceeded expectations pushing September rate hike probability back to 60%, but next week's CPI is the final verdict; Bitcoin under short-term pressure falling below $80,000, but gold ratio remains high at 18.17, "digital gold" narrative unbroken; OKX Prophet includes FOMC prediction in $600,000 prize pool, prediction market track continues to expand. CORE liquidation data shows an extreme "end-of-session surge" structure — early volume extremely shrank (1 hour $127, 4-12 hours only $231), 24-hour surged to $8,265, 2.8% extremely low concentration indicates whales idled all day, completing targeted clearing only at the end of the session. Direction highly consistent but volume small, just a ripple in the big picture. When employment data, asset pricing, and prediction markets converge in the same week — the market is waiting for next week's CPI final answer. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🚨 Is this the power of the non-farm payrolls? $BTC, $ETH, $SOL none of them escaped!
Before the data came out, BTC was still around 81,000, ETH stood at 2,530, and the market was still immersed in Waller's dovish expectations. The result: August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate still at 4.1%, directly resetting the market's interest rate expectations.
The logic is actually very simple:
Strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → yields go up → risk assets under pressure → leveraged longs forced to stop out.
BTC once fell below 80,000, ETH quickly dropped from around 2,530, and high Beta assets like SOL saw further amplified declines. Even more severe, over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network in a short time, indicating this was not just spot selling pressure but a leveraged stampede.
But I actually don't think it's time to shout "bull market over" yet.
⚠️ The real key is whether it can recover after the drop.
If 80,000 is firmly held again, it means there is still support below; if 80,000 turns from support into resistance, then we must guard against the market continuing downward to seek liquidity.
Next, don't rush to guess the bottom; CPI is the second card.
Non-farm payrolls are responsible for changing expectations, CPI decides whether these expectations can continue.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 A few days ago, the Federal Reserve said it was paying more attention to next week's CPI data rather than the non-farm payrolls, but the non-farm payrolls came out very strong. Such strong non-farm payrolls indicate that US employment is very good, and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. What does Trump need for the midterm elections? He needs low interest rates, a high stock market, and good employment to boost his votes. Now that the non-farm payrolls are so strong, doesn't that highlight how good the employment environment was during Trump's tenure? Moreover, Trump immediately jumped out to pressure the Federal Reserve, saying that with such good data, they should cut interest rates, or else cut off all trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the US. This gave Powell a way out. Also, Musk's spending has already started, indicating they are preparing for the November midterm elections. So, in the near future, is it possible that the war will stop, crude oil prices will fall, and inflation will ease? Then Powell can use this opportunity to maintain interest rates or even restart rate cuts if the data is excellent, so buy the dip. This is just my personal opinion for reference only. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$ETH $CORE Rumors About Multiple Exchanges Delisting CORE: Clarifying Delisting VS Temporary Suspension,
Circulating in the community is a list of many exchanges "delisting CORE," causing panic for many who see it directly. Here, we need to distinguish two completely different matters: permanent delisting of trading pairs vs. temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals during a hard fork maintenance. The community messages mix these two, amplifying the panic.
📝 Information Breakdown
1. Permanent Delisting (a few small and medium platforms)
KuCoin, Phemex, TEBBIT, CoinEx and some smaller exchanges chose to delist CORE trading pairs and close deposits and withdrawals after the vulnerability incident, which is a platform's independent decision.
2. Mainstream Large Platforms: Only temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals during the hard fork, not delisted
OKX, Coinbase, Bitget, LBank, Bithumb, Coinone:
During the hard fork upgrade window, network deposits and withdrawals were temporarily closed to prevent fork confusion and token disorder. This is a standard risk-avoidance operation by exchanges when a public chain has bugs.
Now that the hard fork has been completed, mainstream platforms like OKX have fully restored deposits and withdrawals, and trading pairs remain normal; this is not a permanent delisting.
OKX only delisted the "on-chain coin-earning staking products," while spot trading and deposit/withdrawal functions have returned.
⚠️ Key Points That Are Easily Misleading
1. Mixing "temporary suspension for maintenance" and "permanent delisting" together gives the false impression that many top exchanges are collectively abandoning CORE, which is misinformation spread in the community.
2. Some small and medium exchanges choosing to delist objectively reflects a shift in risk assessment after the incident, which is a real negative factor.
3. Although mainstream exchanges have resumed services, after the vulnerability incident, institutions and exchanges will raise risk control thresholds for the project, making future listings and collaborations more cautious.
Market Reality Insights
- The negative impact has already been priced in through a round of price digestion, but continued delisting by smaller exchanges will reduce trading channels and liquidity, which is a medium- to long-term suppressive factor.
- Do not panic excessively over rumors of "all exchanges delisting," nor completely ignore the real risk of delisting by some platforms.
- Distinguish facts: major exchanges have resumed trading and deposits/withdrawals; some small and medium exchanges have permanently delisted.
Summary: The vulnerability incident indeed brought costs to CORE at the exchange level, but the online rumor of "top exchanges collectively delisting" is information confusion. When reading news, prioritize official exchange announcements and do not directly copy group chat screenshots.Ridiculously high!
Robinhood Chain's single-day DEX trading volume hit $1.69 billion
Accounting for 17% globally
But its own users only contribute 1%-2%
Pure crypto-native users are playing
Robinhood insiders haven't woken up yet
TVL up 90% in thirty days
Ranked twelfth across the entire network
Uniswap intermediated 77% of the trading volume
This chain is becoming Uniswap's backyard
I'm watching closely
Waiting for Robinhood's own users to truly enter the market
That will be the real signal of retail FOMO
Right now it's all whales and scientists quietly playing
If its own users don't take the baton, how long can this chain last?
$HOOD #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 非农夜，多头被一根数据线直接送走。 凌晨那波连环爆仓，有多少人是白天喊着看牛、晚上就被清算通知叫醒的？ 我昨晚其实没睡好，盯盘盯到凌晨三点。$BTC 在数据公布前还稳稳站在81000，$ETH 也有2530，市场还在消化Waller那番偏鹰的表态。那时候盘面给我的感觉是：大家都在等一个方向，但没人敢先动。 结果非农数据一出来，新增就业16.2万人，远超预期。这个数字不是简单的"好于预期"——它是直接把市场对9月降息的幻想给戳破了。加息押注升温，美元走强，风险资产全线承压。逻辑链条清晰得可怕：就业好 → 通胀担忧 → 加息预期 → 美元强 → 加密跌。 $BTC 直接跌破78000，日内跌幅接近4.5%。$ETH 更惨，从2530一路滑到2400附近，跌了5%以上，现在勉强在2456喘气。$SOL 也没能幸免，整个市场像被按下了集体下跌的开关。 最残酷的是那轮清算。不到一小时，全网爆仓超2亿美金，多头贡献了1.86亿。我之前在2400附近挂的ETH多单，止损设在2350，侥幸躲过一劫，但群里一位朋友的重仓多单直接被扫出场，账户缩水了四成。 这种时候技术分析基本失效。画线、看支撑、数浪，都#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
Just finished reviewing the US August nonfarm payroll data, honestly a bit surprising.
This time, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market originally expected less than 60,000, massively exceeding everyone's estimates. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. Previously, the forecast range given by institutions was at best 121,000, but the actual data went beyond the upper limit of that range.
Once the data was released, market sentiment immediately shifted. The probability of a rate hike in September in the swap market jumped to over 60%, whereas before the release it was about 50%.
However, it’s not time to draw final conclusions yet. Fed Governor Waller clearly stated that inflation is the key: if inflation improves, they will hold steady; if inflation remains high, they tend to raise rates. The real highlight is the August CPI on September 11, with the September FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th.
There is already divergence in the market. Bank of America treats the nonfarm data as an appetizer, believing a rate hike in September is very likely; Morgan Stanley has the opposite view, predicting rates will remain unchanged, estimating core CPI month-over-month at 0.23%.
In short, nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the real direction will be decided by the upcoming inflation data. Strong employment gives hawks confidence, but whether inflation keeps pace is the ultimate deciding factor.
Curious to hear everyone’s thoughts: do you think the CPI will push for a rate hike, or will it cause the Fed to pause?This looks more like macro repricing than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $79.6K is down 1.36%, with ETH and SOL slightly weaker as August payrolls beat expectations. That keeps policy sensitivity elevated, so I would treat the next rates signal as more important than today's red tape.
Not advice, just analysis.Reviewing the brutal market upheaval on September 4th (Friday Nonfarm Payroll day):
The nonfarm data exploded with +162,000 (expected only 56,000), nearly 3 times the forecast! Market expectations instantly reversed from rate cuts to hikes, with CME betting the probability of a September rate hike soaring above 60%. All the overnight short squeeze gains were completely wiped out by this blow.
BTC fell accordingly to $79,692, and SOL led the drop with a 3.5% plunge. This spike liquidated a large amount of long positions chasing highs. Although the daily-level major long structure hasn't completely broken down, the top momentum has weakened for three consecutive times.
On the macro side, the restart of rate hike expectations intensifies risk-off sentiment; geopolitically, the Middle East situation is heating up, and the long-short battle has entered a white-hot phase.
Current trading discipline must be strictly followed:
Never blindly bottom-fish: don't try to catch a falling knife around $79K by going long on the dip.
Never blindly short naked: avoid naked shorts at 1H oversold rebounds; wait for price to truly break below $78K for confirmation or for a rebound to meet resistance with volume before following on the right side.
Position management: with event week and next week's upcoming CPI release, absolutely do not go full position to tough it out.
#BTC #Bitcoin #NonfarmShock #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingLog$BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
The blockbuster nonfarm payroll data has landed, directly shaking global asset pricing.
In August, the US seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of less than 60,000 and the institutional forecast ceiling of only 121,000. The actual data significantly shattered the expected ceiling, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. This employment report, which far exceeded market imagination, means that the US labor market remains resilient and has not shown the cooling signals previously feared by the market.
After the data release, rate hike expectations quickly heated up. CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September rose directly from 50% to over 60%, with market betting sentiment clearly shifting. However, the nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the core determinant of the Fed's final decision remains inflation. Just the day before, Waller clearly stated that whether inflation can continue to fall toward the 2% target is the decisive condition for a September rate hike.
The market's two major investment banks have already presented completely opposite views. Bank of America likens the nonfarm payrolls to an "appetizer" for the market, with the upcoming August CPI report next week being the "main course" that will decide the direction, still predicting a high probability of a September rate hike; meanwhile, Morgan Stanley holds a different view, estimating the core CPI month-over-month at only 0.23%, believing the Fed will ultimately choose to keep rates unchanged.
Strong employment has become an established fact, but inflation data still leaves huge uncertainty. The CPI report on September 11 will become the biggest market focus in the coming week. This inflation data will either follow the logic of strong employment to firmly confirm rate hike expectations or provide a cooling signal, prompting the Fed to once again pause action at the September policy meeting.
The divergence between bulls and bears has already widened, with gold, BTC, the US dollar, and US Treasuries all entering a critical window. Until the CPI dust settles, the market's volatile game will not end; the real big move awaits the inflation data reveal next week.the Robinhood Chain question from @termix_ai made me think less about expansion and more about fragmentation.
BNB Chain and Base already give multiple settlement environments. adding another chain could widen distribution, especially if new kinds of tokenized assets and onchain agents live there.
but every extra chain also creates a harder design problem.
does an agent build one reputation across the whole market, or several reputations depending on where it transacts.
#DailyOrbit $ZEC ZEC Cost: In the early days, it could be mined with GPUs, but now it has entered the ASIC miner era. The current main model is the Z15 Pro, with a single unit hashrate of about 840 KSol/s, power consumption of 2780 watts, requiring about 66.7 kWh of electricity per day. Machines are usually placed in professional mining farms, and costs include not only electricity but also hosting, maintenance, and other expenses.
Zcash produces a block approximately every 75 seconds on average, with each block yielding 1.25 ZEC. Calculated, the entire network's miners collectively earn about 1440 ZEC per day. These coins are not all retained by miners. Mining farms must pay electricity bills daily, and miners usually sell part of their output; how much they keep depends on electricity prices, financial strength, and market outlook.
Based on an estimated total network hashrate of about 24–25 GSol/s in late August 2026, a single Z15 Pro can mine about 0.05 ZEC per day. If the comprehensive electricity price is $0.068–0.07 per kWh, the cost is around $90–95; if the electricity price reaches $0.1, the shutdown price would be about $136. Therefore, low electricity price mining farms can sustain longer, while miners with high electricity costs are more likely to exit when the market declines. 1. ETH On-Chain Deposit Data to Exchanges: Over 4 days, 142,800 ETH were transferred into major centralized exchanges. Based on an average price of $2,416, this amounts to approximately $345 million. - Fund Behavior: Large holding addresses moved funds in batches from offline cold wallets and after staking unlocks to centralized exchanges (CEX). On-chain markets generally interpret "large transfers to exchanges" as potential sell signals. - Not all represent immediate sell-offs: some are for hedging, arbitrage, or cross-exchange trading, but objectively, the liquid tokens available for sale on exchanges have significantly increased, raising short-term selling pressure. 2. ETF Fund Flows Show a Clear Divergence: 1. BTC Spot ETF: Net inflow of $101 million in a single day (September 2), with BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as the main buyer; institutional funds continue to accumulate BTC positions. 2. ETH Spot ETF: Net outflow of $48.2 million during the same period, indicating redemptions. On one side, Bitcoin ETFs are attracting capital, while on the other, Ethereum ETFs are seeing withdrawals. Institutional funds are rebalancing positions between the two leading cryptocurrencies. 3. Underlying Logic Breakdown: 1. Macro Level: Non-farm payroll data was hawkish, increasing market risk aversion. Within crypto assets, BTC is regarded as the "safe haven" within the sector, with funds prioritizing BTC accumulation. ETH, due to DeFi, Layer 2 solutions, and on-chain gas fees, has a more cyclical and elastic market sentiment, making it more prone to being reduced during sideways markets. 2. Token Behavior: Some early ETH whales and institutional holders are taking profits during this rebound, moving coins intoAfter the non-farm payrolls hit, BTC held at 79,000, but ETH fell below 2450: which is weaker?
Opened the trading page this morning, and the first thing I checked was whether ETH was still at 2450. It dropped first, hitting a low near 2428, now barely pulled back to 2451; BTC's low was 78,610, currently at 79,533, still hovering around 79,000. Over 24 hours, BTC dropped 1.44%, ETH dropped 1.96%. No need to guess which is weaker in the short term.
Non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, the data wasn’t as soft as the market expected. As interest rate expectations tighten, the assets that rose quickly and were more volatile get hit first. BTC has deeper liquidity, while ETH surged from 1900 to 2500, with heavier profit-taking pressure, so its pullback is naturally sharper.
Right now, I’m only watching two lines: BTC at 79,000—if it holds, it might test 80,000 again; if it breaks below 78,600, the rebound will be considered weak. ETH failing to hold 2450 means first watching 2428; only by stabilizing above 2500 can sentiment be restored.
What I fear most isn’t ETH falling, but BTC holding steady making people think all is fine while ETH quietly falls behind. Brothers, do you think this is a catch-up drop, or has ETH really started to weaken compared to BTC?
⚠️ Personal market commentary only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 Bitcoin regains market focus, and corporate crypto asset allocation is accelerating📊
At the end of August, the crypto market rebounded, with Bitcoin rising about 23%, directly driving Bitcoin mining companies that had actively shifted to AI business back into high-beta stocks. Some mining companies' stock prices increased by 41% to 67%, outperforming many AI infrastructure companies.
Three key drivers of this surge🔑
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury expands Treasury buybacks
2️⃣ The White House signals positive crypto regulation
3️⃣ Over $1.6 billion in short positions were liquidated
A new variable worth noting - the Stablecoin Alliance💡
Twenty-one major financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citibank plan to establish a new company aiming to launch a U.S. dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027, then expand to other G7 currencies for cross-border payments and digital asset settlements.
This rebound differs from previous pure capital inflows, adding two new clues: corporate balance sheet allocation and traditional financial institutions entering stablecoins. This indicates crypto assets are being incorporated into long-term strategic plans by more mainstream institutional players, not just short-term trading funds.
$BTC ← #🏛-₿-Crypto Analysis--Daily >
Market Sentiment
🟡 Cautiously Bullish
Report Date
2026-09-04
Mainline Changes
⚡ The mainline has changed — Yesterday we were worried that Ethereum ETF outflows and the escalation of the Iran situation would crush market sentiment, but today after the nonfarm payroll data blew past expectations, the crypto market rose instead of falling. Bitcoin ETF single-day inflows of $730 million hit the largest in nearly 8 months, and the market shifted to risk-on.
🎯 Today's Focus — ZEC·Position Reversal
ZEC surged about 20% within two days, breaking through $1000. The direct trigger was short sellers reportedly losing $34 million in a single day, combined with continuous inflows into privacy pools and ZEC's price ratio against Monero accelerating upward. This looks less like leveraged speculation and more like genuine buying within the sector, so the stance was raised from cautiously optimistic to bullish.
📌 Core Themes
· Bitcoin ETF single-day inflows of $730 million, the largest in nearly 8 months, with institutions increasing positions against the trend after the nonfarm data
· The Fear & Greed Index rose to 74 points, a near one-week high, showing market sentiment clearly shifting from cautious to optimistic
· Zcash surged nearly 20% in one day, breaking $1000, short sellers lost $34 million, driving the privacy coin sector collectively stronger
· Stablecoin total market cap increased by 0.36% in 24 hours, indicating there are still new funds waiting to enter off-exchange
📰 News Highlights
· Zcash surged nearly 20% in one day, breaking $1000, short sellers lost $34 million in a single day, indicating genuine buying in the privacy coin sector rather than speculation
The market worries the Fed is more likely to raise rates, but the crypto market instead took the opportunity to rally, showing this risk appetite did not follow traditional macro logic
· Conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have damaged refineries, pushing diesel prices to historic highs, which will heighten inflation concerns and pose a medium-term risk hanging over risk assets
· The global bond market is starting to worry about inflation returning, causing selling pressure. If this concern spreads to stocks, it could eventually affect crypto market risk appetite
🏃♂️ 24h Outlook
In the next 24 hours, the market will likely continue a cautiously optimistic atmosphere, but two variables need close monitoring: first, whether the Ethereum ETF can turn today's net inflow into a true continuous trend (currently it’s just the first day turning positive after outflows). If inflows continue tomorrow, it indicates institutional confidence is truly recovering; second, market expectations about whether the Fed will raise rates in September are still in flux. If upcoming inflation data is hawkish, it could interrupt this optimism unexpectedly driven by the nonfarm data. Additionally, the privacy coin sector’s rapid rise means if ZEC and others cannot hold their new highs in the short term, profit-taking may occur. The Iran situation and diesel price highs causing inflation risks are medium-term risks that require ongoing attention.
❌ Yesterday’s Outlook·Missed
Yesterday we said strong nonfarm data might suppress risk assets and pressure Bitcoin, but after August added 162,000 jobs far exceeding expectations, Bitcoin rose instead of falling, breaking through $81,000. ETF single-day inflows of $730 million hit a nearly 8-month high, so the directional judgment was wrong. $BTC $ETH $ZEC How to operate $ETH over the weekend?
Last night's nonfarm payroll data was quite a shock; many retail investors didn't react in time and have already stopped losses or been liquidated, while Caibao chose to watch the show before entering the market, aiming for steady wins.
Although this drop was mainly due to the bearish nonfarm data, another reason is that ETH had already experienced a rally earlier, breaking through key resistance levels multiple times. There were quite a few short-term profit-taking positions. Even before the nonfarm data, funds had started positioning, so once the data didn't meet market expectations, everyone chose to take profits.
The US stock market didn't fall much at the open because after digesting the initial panic, market funds are still focused on upcoming inflation data. Tech stocks haven't experienced sustained panic either. Plus, it's the last trading day on Friday; isn't it nice for Americans to take their money and enjoy the weekend?BTC is currently around $79,600, up 23% in 30 days, with $3.5 billion net inflow into ETFs in August hitting a yearly high, looking very strong. But the Fear and Greed Index has surged from 25 (fear) a month ago to 74 (greed) — the most comfortable entry window near 58,000 in June has already passed.
More troubling is that on September 4, the non-farm payrolls came out at 162,000 (expected 53,000), pushing the rate hike probability back to 59%. BTC dropped from 82,000 to below 80,000 that day. The institutional consensus confirmation line is to hold above 83,000 for two weeks, and currently, not a single condition has been met.
Meanwhile, three major events—CPI on September 11, bill voting on the 15th, and FOMC on the 16th—are packed within two weeks. September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin.
Conclusion: If you are not holding, don’t chase; wait for events to settle or for a pullback to 76,000–78,000 to build positions gradually; if you have a base position, hold it and consider partial profit-taking above 83,000. Right now, there is neither emotional discount nor trend confirmation, so it’s a no-man’s land; heavy positions are purely a bet on macro data.The U.S. Department of Labor released data on September 5 showing that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, about 2.9 times the expected value, while reversing the net decrease of 23,000 in July. The private sector added 127,000 jobs, also significantly higher than the expected 45,000 and July's 30,000. This is the most significant deviation from expectations in employment data this year, completely overturning the recent narrative of a cooling labor market.
On the wage front, average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year in August, slightly above the expected 3.0%, but slightly down from July's 3.2%, with wage growth still in a moderate contraction range. Previously, ADP private sector employment increased by only 38,000 in August, the lowest since January this year, leading the market to generally expect weak nonfarm data; July job openings rose to 7.27 million, and layoffs fell to the lowest since January this year, providing a leading signal for this strong nonfarm report, but it was not fully priced in.
The stronger-than-expected rebound in nonfarm data will significantly strengthen discussions about a Fed rate hike in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, after the ADP data release, the market's probability expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September was 62.2%; after the stronger-than-expected employment report, this probability is expected to rise further. #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, nearly three times the expectation. As soon as this data came out, the market panicked immediately—rate hike worries reignited, Bitcoin dropped 3%, and gold plummeted by $70.
But interestingly, Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of $730 million against the trend, and Trump also jumped out calling for rate cuts. This is interesting: on one side, retail investors are scared and selling off, while on the other, institutions are buying heavily.
The market is indeed panicking, but the panic is only in shallow funds.
To understand this, you need to grasp a counterintuitive logic: strong employment does not equal a healthy economy, nor does it mean the stock market should fall. $BTC $ZEC $USELESS #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Currently, $TRUMP is about $2.39, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $560 million and a circulating market cap of approximately $627 million. The trading looks lively, but the price has retraced about 97% from the all-time high of $73.43 set in January 2025. What's more troublesome is that the supply pressure isn't over yet. On September 18, about 28.69 million TRUMP tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 2.9% of the total supply, valued at around $68 million, and all these tokens belong to insiders. Recently, the market has also been watching wallets related to the Trump team, with about $26.65 million worth of SOL already transferred. Coupled with the upcoming unlock, this has somewhat raised caution among investors. So $TRUMP is in a bit of an awkward position now: the trading volume is shockingly high, yet the price is still stuck below its historical peak; on one hand, it has Trump as the biggest traffic source, but on the other, it faces ongoing unlocks and team wallet movements. The biggest risk for this coin isn't that no one is trading it, but that everyone is waiting for someone else to take the last baton.After the US non-farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stock market showed a very divided performance.
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market had originally only expected 56,000, nearly three times the forecast. Once the data came out, US Treasury bonds immediately reacted, with the 10-year yield surging back to 4.8%, and market expectations for a September rate hike also rose.
Normally, this environment is definitely unfavorable for tech stocks, so last night the S&P fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.29%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.51%. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3% last night, with the entire storage, semiconductor equipment, and AI hardware sectors strengthening against the trend. What has really been weighing on tech stocks these days are oil prices and US Treasury yields. Oil prices remain above $90, the 10-year Treasury yield has returned to 4.8%, and with such strong non-farm payrolls, the market naturally worries that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates.
Additionally, US markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day, so the next opening is Tuesday. Next week, the real focus will no longer be on non-farm payrolls, but on CPI and PPI. The key will be whether inflation provides the Federal Reserve with a reason to continue raising rates.🚨 Nonfarm Night! 162,000 vs Expected 55,000, Rate Hike Repricing
Beijing Time September 4, 20:30, US August Nonfarm triple market expectations:
📊 New jobs 162,000 (expected about 55,000), strongest since March
📊 Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; hourly wages +0.3% month-over-month, +3.1% year-over-year
📊 June and July combined revised up by 55,000, "employment cooling" narrative overturned
🔁 Market immediately reprices: September rate hike probability rises from about 50% to 58.4%-60.2% (CME FedWatch, as of September 5); 2-year US Treasury yield +7.6bp, US dollar index +0.3%
💡 Transmission logic: strong employment → Fed focuses on inflation → financial conditions tighten → non-interest assets under pressure
👀 Next up: September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC — CPI is the decisive variable
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 $CRDO US Stock AI Leader】CRDO crashed from $308 to $170, is it a golden opportunity or a bottomless pit?
Brothers, many have been asking about the stock (CRDO) recently. From the high of $308, it dropped all the way back to around $170, nearly a 40% pullback, which has trapped many who bought at the top. Today, I'll analyze it for you,
Outstanding performance, so why did the stock price plummet?
Revenue in the financial report grew over 114% year-over-year, and EPS also exceeded expectations, but this sell-off is essentially buying on expectations and selling on facts. Before the earnings report, the stock price had priced in too much expectation; after the good news was realized, funds took the opportunity to cash out. Coupled with recent hawkish macro interest rate expectations, high Beta tech stocks were the first to be squeezed out.
Is the core fundamental bad?
Not at all! CRDO is the absolute essential leader in high-speed interconnects for data centers (AEC active copper cables, optical chips). As Nvidia and major cloud giants continue to stack computing power, the communication transmission bottleneck between servers becomes even more prominent. Its industry prosperity and performance growth remain strong, and Wall Street institutions still anchor their target price around $280.
Operation advice: Avoid blindly leveraging on the left side: The first phase after a sharp drop usually comes with intense volatility, and blindly opening high-leverage long positions can easily get stopped out by intraday shakeouts.
Currently, focus on the support line around $158 - $160. If it can complete a low-volume consolidation or form a bullish divergence in this area, it will be a very cost-effective opportunity for phased buying For $BTC, this is the most important signal to watch in the past two months.
First, what is this? The red line is STH-MVRV, the short-term holders' unrealized profit multiple; 1 is the cost line, and 1.15 means an average profit of 15%. The blue line is its own 155-day moving average. When the red line is above the blue line, the area below is filled green; when reversed, it is filled red.
So this green area is not about valuation, it’s about momentum. It only answers one question: Is the situation of this batch of new money getting better or worse?
In June, STH-MVRV was 0.84, meaning new entrants were on average losing 16%, with no green area at all. Now the red line has crossed above the blue line, and the green area is the thickest this year.
I acknowledge this signal; directionally, it stands on my side, but two things must be said together.
First, the red line has now surged to around 1.15, and Glassnode’s old experience is that once this number exceeds 1.2 to 1.4, the risk of profit-taking rises significantly. The green is green, but it’s not far from the upper edge of the comfort zone.
Second, from August 18 to 28, the 30-day distribution volume of long-term holders rose from 174,500 to 281,900 coins, while LTH-MVRV increased from 1.31 to 1.64. New money is making profits, old money is selling, and the sellers are targeting this batch of new money.
The green area tells you "the trend is moving this way," not "buying at this price now won’t get you stuck."
The cost of confusion between these two things is usually paid by those who chase in.Waller's statement yesterday gave the market a strong boost.
On September 3rd, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if inflation continues to cool down, he tends to keep interest rates unchanged in September.
The market immediately repriced, with the expectation of a rate hike in September falling from over 60% to nearly 50%. BTC surged from around $77,000 to $81,000–$82,000, hitting a new high since May. Gold also rose more than 2% that day.
This is actually more worth watching than just "BTC went up again."
Because recently, the market is trading on more than just risk appetite.
It's another logic:
Will the US dollar continue to weaken? Will its real purchasing power be diluted? Is capital searching again for assets that do not rely on a single fiat currency system?
Gold fits this logic.
BTC is increasingly fitting it too.
So this round of the market is quite interesting.
Previously, BTC was more like a tech stock: it rose with good liquidity and was the first to run when risk appeared.
Now it starts to trade the "currency depreciation" story together with gold.
Of course, don't rush to call it digital gold.
The real test will be when the next macro pressure comes: can BTC still stand with gold?
Or will it still be the first to be sold when the market tightens?
$BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 As soon as Waller spoke yesterday, BTC surged directly.
On September 3rd, Waller stated that if inflation continues to decline, he leans towards no rate hike in September.
The market immediately changed its script.
Originally, more than 60% expected a rate hike, but this quickly dropped to about 50%. BTC surged from around $77,000 to $81,000, even touching $82,000 intraday. Gold also rose accordingly.
Looking at BTC now, it’s quite interesting.
People used to treat it as a risk asset.
When the Nasdaq rose, it followed.
When liquidity tightened, it got hit.
But now the market is starting to apply another logic to BTC:
What if the dollar depreciates?
What if debt keeps increasing?
What if purchasing power declines?
Gold is one of the answers.
BTC is also being included in this answer.
So this rally, on the surface, looks like Waller’s dovish signal.
But looking deeper, the market is trading on whether "money will become less valuable."
But don’t get too excited here.
Because after the stronger-than-expected US employment data was released on September 4th, the market raised rate hike expectations again, and BTC briefly fell back below $80,000.
This is the most realistic aspect of the macro market.
Yesterday you could trade rate cut expectations.
Today you can trade rate hike expectations.
So what’s really worth watching is never just one sentence from Waller.
It’s whether gold and BTC can continue to stand on the same macro logic.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Nonfarm Payroll Night, Why Did Trump "Go Against the Trend" and Call for a Rate Cut?
On September 4th, August's nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations. The CME's rate hike probability jumped to 60%, with bond market dollar rising and gold falling. One and a half hours after the data release, Trump posted on Truth Social: first praising the data as "breaking expectations," then abruptly shifting tone—"Cut rates, or I will stop doing business with all countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S." He directly addressed Fed Chair Powell: "Be a patriot."
Economics 101 teaches us strong employment → inflation → rate hikes, but Trump's logic is: "A strong country means lower interest rates."
As a trader, I see two signals: First, politics openly challenging monetary independence—Powell just emphasized last week that "we should not yield to political pressure," and a week later the president is pressuring, with this timing 11 days before the FOMC suggesting a direct confrontation between the White House and the Fed. Second, the call reveals Trump's anxiety—the stronger the nonfarm data, the stronger the rate hike expectations, the greater the impact on the economy and stock market. He uses trade war threats against the Fed, essentially saying "No matter how good the data is, I want rate cuts."
For traders, the source of short-term volatility has shifted from "the data itself" to the "politics vs central bank" struggle. The rate hike card is in the Fed's hand, but Trump's trade war card could overturn the entire situation at any time. In the next 11 days, any new statement from either side could have a far greater impact than the nonfarm data itself. $BTC $SNDK #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The mid-year report of Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted ETF Link finally reveals why this fund is trading at a 24% premium and still being snapped up crazily?
Because it doesn't track the ordinary Nasdaq 100!
The Nasdaq 100 mixes in impure "tech stocks" like Amazon, Meta, and Tesla (they are classified under consumer and communication).
But this index only keeps hardcore tech: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Micron — a pure AI computing power hub.
Single stock cap is 15%, and the top five total weight does not exceed 60%, preventing giants from crowding too much.
With no quota left for off-exchange, if you want to buy, you have to compete on-exchange, so the premium is driven sky-high. What you are buying is pure computing power. I wonder if any big players have made money with this fund.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
DYOR.When the non-farm payroll data came out last night, I was completely stunned.
The market had previously expected only 56,000, but the actual release soared directly to 162,000, the highest in three months! Moreover, July's data was revised upward by 44,000, pulled from negative to positive, contradicting expectations for two consecutive months. The job market shows no sign of cooling down.
The market reaction was lightning fast. Gold $XAU instantly dropped $70, silver followed with a $1.5 decline, and the US dollar index surged 34 points.
The worst hit was the crypto market, with $BTC plunging from 81,600 and $ETH falling below 2,450. Several of my friends who were long positions liquidated on the spot, causing a wave of distress.
My biggest concern now is the CPI on September 11. Waller recently said, "CPI decides everything," but the non-farm payrolls exploded first. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a rate hike in September is almost certain.
However, the RSI has already dropped to 12.5, indicating severe short-term overselling, so a technical rebound might occur.
But personally, I think before the CPI release, don't rush to chase any rebound; it might just be a bull trap. The job market is much stronger than we thought.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Trump has started ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, threatening that if the Fed doesn't cut rates, he will cut off trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S.
In fact, Trump and Powell want completely different things right now. Trump wants growth and cheap money; with lower interest rates, government borrowing is cheaper, corporate financing is cheaper, and the U.S. stock market and economy are more likely to rise. Powell wants to protect the purchasing power of the dollar and the Fed's credibility. The more aggressively Trump demands rate cuts, the less Powell can easily give in, otherwise the market will really start to doubt the Fed's independence.
The most awkward part is that while Trump is pushing for rate cuts, he is also waging a trade war and taking military action against Iran. Tariffs may push up commodity prices, and the war has kept oil prices above $90, which means Trump is verbally urging Powell to cut rates while his own actions are continuously making it harder for Powell to do so.
Therefore, the importance of the CPI on September 11 has been maximized. Bloomberg expects overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, and core CPI year-over-year at 2.4%. If core inflation continues to cool significantly, the Fed still has reason to treat high oil prices as a supply shock and wait in September; if CPI again exceeds expectations, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and high oil prices, a rate hike in September becomes increasingly justified, and the market may even start trading a second rate hike in December directly.In August, the U.S. added 162,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. After the data was released, BTC once fell below $80,000 and is now hovering around $79,600.
The screen clearly showed the same data, yet three types of news quickly appeared on the account.
Bulls say: With such strong employment, the economy is fine, BTC can hold up.
Bears say: With such strong employment and rising interest rate expectations, liquidity needs to tighten.
The trapped person said: Wait a little longer, the market still hasn't understood my logic.
Many people are not interpreting nonfarm payrolls, but asking nonfarm payrolls to testify for their positions. The data is objective, but the explanations are considerate: whatever direction you hold, it happens to support that direction.
The real danger isn't a single misreading, but that every new piece of news can be rewritten as a "no stop-loss needed" reason. When the position is light, we study probability; When the position is heavy, we start studying miracles.
This nonfarm payroll did heat up interest rate discussions, but it was not the final verdict of the September decision. There is still CPI on September 11, and the FOMC meeting is only on September 15-16. The market will first trade sentiment, then expectations, and finally decide what funds will be made after policies are truly implemented.
I only remind myself of three things:
First, a single statistic can only change probabilities, not judge the future.
Second, if new news only makes me want to add to my position but doesn't ask me to recheck the failure conditions, that's not analysis—it's about finding witnesses.
Third, if you miss the first market segment after the data is released, you miss it—there's no need to replace the first place with the second orderWhile everyone is focused on the defense strength of USD/JPY at the 155 level, what I see is the Bank of Japan executing a deeply meaningful “Queen for Pawn” move in the midgame — they have abandoned the bluff at the front line and chosen to violently dismantle the most crowded carry trade camp in the global financial market. This is not a sudden ambush but a well-laid endgame trap set twenty moves earlier.
In chess theory, the most dangerous attacks often do not come from aggressive sacrifices but from the slow advance of the central pawn chain. The Bank of Japan officials’ preference for a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% in September is precisely this weighty “central pawn.” Service sector inflation is the powder keg, while the weak yen is the sacrificed knight luring the enemy in. If the market is seen as a scale, the drop of USD/JPY from 160.39 to 155 is the forced shutdown of the “weak yen” engine. Speculative funds running naked on low-interest currencies now face a “timeout loss” dilemma, forced to make extremely undignified stop-loss retreats in a very short time.
Immediately following, the short squeeze of 16 to 17 trillion yen warned by JPMorgan after the 155 break smells like a familiar “pawn structure collapse.” This 15-16 trillion yen carry trade is like an overstretched pawn chain. Initially, it created extreme visual pressure, pushing the exchange rate far from its core value center; but once the center is broken by this sudden rate hike expectation, all open lines from the low-interest era are forcibly invaded by the opponent’s rook. At this point, liquidation acts like a series of “forced responses,” not only pushing USD/JPY down to the next undefended pawn formation at 151-152 but also forcing global fund managers in panic to sell profitable risk assets to exchange for local currency liquidity — for Bitcoin and US stock tokens like XEWY, this is tantamount to having their rear supply lines completely cut off.
As the dollar interest rates and US Treasury yields on the board, they are now “pinned” pieces. On one hand, the yen’s appreciation directly lowers the expected US Treasury yields, causing the dollar index to weaken as if losing its two bishops; on the other hand, if the scale of carry trade liquidation creates a siphon effect, the scarcity of dollar cash will severely damage risk asset valuation models. Bitcoin’s liquidity is a piece easily sacrificed in this macro game because its pricing power is not on-chain but lies in the prudence of dollar-based capital. For XEWY, a highly correlated target, every rally by bulls currently faces systemic squeeze pressure brought by the yen’s “general,” essentially licking blood on the knife’s edge.
The endgame of exchange rates never requires heroism; it only counts who exhausts their forces first. The Bank of Japan has chosen to advance this decisive pawn at the most opportune moment, and the dollar’s position, like an unprotected A pawn on the board, will inevitably yield this victory under the pressure of time. Arbitrageurs can only try to find a barely survivable escape in this fierce offensive. #bojhikeoddsrise"Nonfarm Night, 5 Quick Reviews"
Quick Review 1: 162,000 vs 55,000 — This is not an upside surprise, this is a "death sentence"
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000.
What was the expectation? 55,000.
Nearly three times.
July's data was revised from -23,000 to +21,000. June was also revised from 20,000 to 31,000.
The two months combined were revised upward by 55,000.
This is not a "slight beat". This is a "death sentence for rate cut expectations."
Quick Review 2: Gold drops $70 in 1 minute — All hard asset bulls liquidated simultaneously
After the data release, spot gold plunged over $70 in a short time, directly breaking below the $4400/oz level. Silver fell 2.11%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged 34 points to 99.32.
BTC dropped from 81,600, breaking below 80,000, hitting a low of 78,600.
The crypto market saw over $200 million liquidated in 1 hour, with longs overwhelmingly dominant. Total 24-hour liquidations across the network exceeded $750 million.
Gold, silver, Bitcoin — all "hard asset bulls" were collectively liquidated at the same moment.
The $200 million BTC liquidation is just a small chapter in this big story.
Quick Review 3: Rate hike probability jumps from 47.6% to 58% — But don’t think tonight is the final verdict
CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates steady in September quickly dropped to 42%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike surged from 47.6% to 58%.
But Bank of America is right: Nonfarm is just the appetizer, CPI is the main course.
Under Chair Powell, the Fed has made it clear — reduce forward guidance and let the market rely entirely on hard data for decisions.
Nonfarm sets the tone for rate hikes; CPI will decide whether hikes actually happen.
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, another CPI report will be released. That is the real "big test."
Quick Review 4: Below 80,000 — The "mass grave" of long leverage
BTC surged to 81,000 during the day, then within minutes after the nonfarm data release, it crashed below 80,000.
Below 80,000 lies the corpses of long leverage positions.
Just like June 5’s 61,000 and August 23’s 76,000 — the same script, just a different price.
Every time it’s "better-than-expected macro data → rising rate hike expectations → risk assets crash → long leverage gets cleaned out." The exact same process, the exact same outcome.
Quick Review 5: Before the next data release — reduce leverage below 2x or go flat
In Powell’s Fed era of no "answers," staying alive is more important than making money.
Before nonfarm, BTC rallied from 77K to 81K during the day, then crashed back to 78K right after the report. Those who chased longs during the day or couldn’t exit in time at night lost everything.
Before the next nonfarm and CPI releases — reduce leverage below 2x or go flat and wait.
This market owes no one money. But you owe yourself a position that keeps you alive.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The foundation pit hasn't even been excavated yet, but the press conference has already preset "topping out in 2027"—put this on the review table, this is a competition of renderings, not construction drawings.
When I saw that 21 traditional financial giants including Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Wells Fargo are preparing to form a new company and plan to establish the entity the year after next and enter cross-border payments and digital asset settlement the year after that, my professional habit kicked in before excitement. The most honest disclosure in this plan is: "Nothing has been established; structure, reserves, and approvals have not been made public." No structure, no reserves, no approvals, yet the completion year is written in the press release—this is equivalent to deciding the tower height on a site without geological surveys. All structural aesthetics under the premise of missing foundation soil parameters are just suspended art installations.
Does the collective entry of traditional financial institutions mean the stablecoin building will be upgraded from a "wildly grown low warehouse" to a "compliant Grade A office building"? I will put on my safety helmet, lay the drawings flat on the scaffolding, and say: the real watershed has never been volume, but foundation selection. USDT and USDC have already formed a city complex connected by countless old streets, while newcomers bring the standard municipal pipelines of bank clearing systems. The pipelines are certainly more elegant, but architecture is not decided by the storefront logo. The moat of the crypto dollar has never been in the exterior decoration, but in those underground diaphragm walls that have been poured and are bearing soil pressure—the channel network, user habits, and 24/7 liquidity all convert into structural stiffness.
Reserves, custody, audits, and redemption stress tests are the raft foundation of this dollar tower. As long as these coefficients lack a signed geological survey report, all other discussions are invalid. The US "GENIUS Act" and the EU "MiCA Regulation" provide two sets of green certifications for the facade, but anyone who has done construction drawing reviews knows: green labels regulate operational energy consumption, not structural failure.
I also glanced at the adjacent foundation pit monitoring data on the bulletin board—$xLITE tower crane showed slight horizontal displacement. Some peers would put this into a hot-selling brochure, but I only record it in the settlement observation log according to regulations. An architect's daily routine is facing instruments: settlement has no emotions, only deviations from the design baseline.
The 21 giants sitting around the long table now look more like a closed-door scheme selection rather than a construction site. The timeline is clearly deduced from board calendars and regulatory schedules, not arranged by concrete curing periods. I've handled hundreds of projects, and there are too many cases without complete geological survey reports; those that eventually become landmarks can be counted on one hand. All groundbreaking ceremonies held before the structure is determined are essentially symbolic acts. Whether the building can stand depends not on how many clouds the glass reflects in the renderings, but on whether the raft foundation truly reaches the bearing layer. And at this moment, the soil layer thickness revealed by drilling is zero, yet someone is already discussing how to charge for the rooftop helipad.
According to the architect's delivery standards, this tower does not yet have coordinates available for measurement and staking. To really top out, first put the soil removal receipt from when the foundation pit bottom was reached on the review table. #tradfistablecoinalliance$BTC's recent rise is not driven by short covering at all,
CVD, spot CVD, and open interest all increased along with the price rise,
indicating that this rally is driven by demand from both sides of the market.
However, buying strength in the spot market far exceeds that in perpetual contracts, which is a good sign.
In a bear market, such demand is really not seen.
$DOGE has recently made a strong comeback with great momentum. From the macro structure and the higher lows here, DOGE seems poised for a large-scale rebound and continuation,
at least targeting a break above the ~$0.60 price area, achieving over 555% gains!
It may already be ready to launch from here. Wash's "Data Dependence" Trap: When the Fed Doesn't Give Answers, the Market Can Only Vote with Liquidations
Have you noticed that every nonfarm payroll in 2026 feels like a "big exam"?
June, July, August—each time replaying the same script: data release → violent fluctuations → liquidations.
On June 5, the U.S. stock market opened lower, triggering $160 million in liquidations.
On August 23, Bitcoin fell below $76,000, instantly vaporizing $91.27 million.
On September 4, nonfarm payroll data was released, and Bitcoin crashed through the $80,000 mark from $82,262 within minutes, with $225 million liquidated across the network in one hour, including $186 million in long position liquidations.
The same script, repeated over and over.
But have you ever wondered—why does the market panic as if seeing the data for the first time every time it is released?
The deep reason is simple: under Wash's leadership, the Fed no longer provides "answers."
On June 17, Wash's debut. The FOMC statement was only about 130 words—compared to over 300 words in April's statement. Many long-used phrases were removed, including the Fed's long-standing "forward guidance."
Wash said at the press conference: "Today's statement is shorter, more concise, and discards some old language. This statement only conveys facts we can confirm to the public."
"Forward guidance" is "not suitable for the current policy environment."
He even refused to submit his own dot plot forecast because "I don't think it helps policy implementation."
In plain language: the Fed no longer tells you in advance what it plans to do.
What is Wash's philosophy?
In his late August Jackson Hole speech, he made it very clear:
"Market participants will always try to predict the Fed's next move. But the Fed should not create a system where investors primarily rely on central bank signals to decide trading directions."
It's not Wash telling the market where rates should go; it's inflation and employment data telling Wash where rates should go.
He even specifically refuses to give the market a "reaction function"—how much inflation triggers a rate hike? How weak must employment be to pause? He doesn't provide that.
His logic is: the real economy is far more complex than simple models. Today's 3% inflation and 3% inflation in another environment do not necessarily mean the same policy.
Wash wants a "data-driven" market.
He got it—only every data release costs billions.
September 4 was a textbook demonstration.
August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs—market expected only 55,000, directly three times the expectation. June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000.
Once the data came out, CME's "FedWatch" showed the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 47.6% to 58%.
Then?
Gold dropped over $80 in the short term, breaking below $4,400/oz.
The dollar index rose briefly to 99.32.
Bitcoin crashed through $80,000 from $81,600 within minutes.
$225 million liquidated in one hour.
A "good news"—strong employment, improving economy—actually crashed the market.
Why? Because without forward guidance, without the Fed "pre-warning" in advance, the market can only violently reprice in an instant.
An Invesco analyst said: Wash is gradually removing the "road signs" the market relies on to judge policy direction.
Without road signs, every drive feels like speeding in fog.
This is not market "irrationality," but the Fed actively removing the "guardrails."
BNP Paribas' head of strategy said: "The market will be more prone to policy surprises in the future; the trading side needs to factor in higher rate hike risk premiums, and overall volatility levels will systematically rise."
JPMorgan Asset Management's CIO was more direct: "Reduced transparency offers no positive value; the market will only fall into more speculation and increased uncertainty."
But Wash doesn't care.
He believes dot plots and forward guidance constrain the Fed, causing the central bank to cling to old forecasts and amplify policy mistakes.
He wants "unpredictability" in policy.
Here comes the problem.
Until the Fed gives "guidance" again, every nonfarm payroll and CPI release is a squid game.
September 11 CPI release—this is the last card before the September FOMC meeting.
Nonfarm payrolls have already pushed the rate hike probability above 60%. If CPI beats expectations again, a September hike is basically certain.
If CPI is below expectations? The market will instantly violently reprice, liquidating positions in the opposite direction.
No matter how the data comes out, someone has to pay.
The only thing you can do is not put all your chips on the table.
Because the Fed now is no longer the Fed that tells you "what we're going to do" in advance.
Wash wants a "data-driven" market.
He got it. Only every data release costs billions.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 1. Macro Background: Interest Rate Easing, But Geopolitical Tensions Remain The core macro variable this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher Waller hinted that if August inflation data moves closer to the 2% target, it will support keeping rates unchanged. This directly eased market anxiety over further rate hikes, boosting risk asset appetite and allowing Bitcoin to surpass the $80,000 mark. But don't celebrate too soon—there are still underlying currents on the geopolitical level. The US military has just completed large-scale escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump has sent another signal that "the US may control the strait." If the Middle East situation reverses, the transmission chain for surging oil prices→ rising inflation expectations→ and rekindling rate hike expectations could be triggered at any moment. Geopolitics is the biggest "black swan switch" in this market. In the past 24 hours, total market liquidations reached $399 million, with long positions liquidating $238 million, accounting for nearly 60%. What does this indicate? The bulls chasing the rally have already been washed out. --- 2. Market Structure: Clear Capital Divergence Between BTC and ETH BTC BTC is currently fluctuating between $79,700 and $81,000. Last week's sharp rally was essentially a short squeeze—a large number of short sellers were forced to close positions when breaking $82,000, forcing them to buy back and push prices higher. After this "mechanical buying" fades, the market needs to watch for organic demand support. Notably, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $101 million over the past four days, while ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $48.2 million over the same period. Institutional capitalThis looks more like a rates reset than a crypto-specific breakdown.
$BTC at $79.6K is falling with $ETH and $SOL as stronger payroll expectations reduce near-term easing hopes.
The key signal now is BTC vs gold. If BTC shows relative strength, it could confirm that broader macro demand remains intact.
Not financial advice, just analysis.
#DailyOrbit