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A few days ago, the market was still discussing whether $BTC would continue to fall. And now? BTC has already climbed back above 80,000. This is the most interesting part of the market — prices always move faster than sentiment. Yesterday, BTC quickly surged from around 77K, once breaking through 82K, and the short-term structure has clearly improved. But I won’t declare the bull market is back just because of one big bullish candle. There is still one last hurdle: 82K–83K. If it breaks through and holds here, it means the previous resistance is truly being digested, and we can continue to watch 85K, 88K, and 90K above. If the breakout fails and it returns to around 80K, it doesn’t mean the trend is immediately over. As long as around 78K can hold, this rebound structure still has observational value. So the most important thing now is not to predict. But to wait for confirmation. If BTC breaks above 83K, I see room to grow; if BTC falls below 80K, I expect a pullback. The rest, I leave to the candlesticks.Just looked at $AAOI, the AI data center optical module segment is really a love-hate relationship 😂 The stock price is now hovering around $100 (closed at about 100.38 on September 3, down 2.67%), but it has surged nearly 190% year-to-date, more than tripling in a year. However, it has already been cut in half from the May high of $233. Recently, they secured a huge order of over $200 million for 1.6T optical modules from a hyperscale customer. Q2 revenue hit a new high of about $192 million, non-GAAP turned positive, and Q3 guidance is still very strong. However, at the end of August, they announced a maximum $600 million secondary offering plan, which caused dilution concerns and directly knocked the stock price down. Capacity expansion is also accelerating (Texas factory ramp-up), and people are still debating whether demand is enough to absorb these shares. Short-term volatility is real, but the long-term logic of following AI infrastructure remains. What do you think? Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or better to wait and see? #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #星球日报 #OKX星球话题来啦 #WallerEyesAugCPI Waller’s latest comments make the September decision feel more conditional than the market was pricing a few days ago 👀 He said he favors holding if August inflation continues to improve, but could support a hike if the data comes in strong. Next week’s CPI and PPI will be central to that call, while he described the labor market as satisfactory. Jobless claims came in at 206K, close to expectations and still within this year’s familiar range. Meanwhile, CME odds of a 25bp hike fell to 50.2% from above 70%, as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar weakened 📉 To me, that shift shows how little conviction the market currently has. Expectations are moving sharply even though the underlying data has changed only gradually. Tonight’s payroll report should add another clue—but inflation still looks like the final test before the September meeting.Quick Review 1: Waller's attitude softens, market re-bets on September policy Last night, what really ignited risk assets was Fed expectations. Waller sent a clearly dovish signal: if inflation continues to cool, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September. The market immediately repriced, and concerns about a policy shift in September have clearly diminished. In short: Inflation does not continue to worsen → The Fed does not need to rush tightening→ liquidity expectations improve. BTC, the Nasdaq, and high-beta assets naturally reacted immediately. Quick Commentary 2: Trump's speech temporarily eases geopolitical risks Trump continued to signal easing last night, indicating that military operations in the Middle East will not continue indefinitely, while risk expectations related to the Strait of Hormuz eased. Geopolitical premiums that the market had priced in on oil prices have begun to be withdrawn. With oil price pressure easing, the market's favorite scenario emerges: reduced war risk + cooling energy prices + return of risk appetite. Naturally, funds are shifting from defensive to equity and crypto assets. Quick Commentary 3: US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, but gold remains strong. Becent's latest statement continues to emphasize that US inflation is generally under control. Subsequently, US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar index fell in tandem. Interestingly, gold remains strong, climbing back above $4,500. This shows that the market is not simply "risk-on," but rather: dollar under pressure + rising rate cut expectations + safe-haven demand remains. Therefore, the simultaneous strength of gold and BTC is not contradictoryLast night, Bitcoin surged to 82100, now it has pulled back to 80686. The nature of this rally is different from what everyone expected, and I'll explain it in four layers. First layer, this is not really about the crypto market. The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement that he might support keeping interest rates unchanged. The key is to consider what the market was thinking before this statement. The derivatives market had priced in a 50% to 70% chance of a rate hike in September—note, a hike, not a cut—so everyone was already bracing for a hit. Then suddenly, he said it might not happen. This is a difference in expectations. It's not about how big the positive news is, but how big the gap is compared to the original expectations. Second layer, this is a reduction of negative factors, not an increase in positive factors—these two are completely different. Real positive news means new money coming in, like ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, or legislation passing. Reducing negatives means those who were planning to exit no longer do, shorts are forced to cover, and this money was already in the market, just changing direction. A move from 77100 to 82100, a 5,000-point jump, largely driven by short covering. The problem with rallies driven by short covering is that once it's done, it's over. Shorts are limited; once covered, there’s no next batch. Third layer, the foundation of this positive news is fragile. Waller is just one governor, not the entire committee; his stance doesn’t mean the meeting decision is set. Other fundamentals remain unchanged: oil prices still at $98, 10-year Treasury yields still at 4.75, inflation pressure persists. Waller’s statement didn’t change any fundamentals. Fourth layer, what should we do now? I’ve changed my view to bullish; the market has indeed broken upwards, and this I won’t change $BTC $DOS is trading at $0.2452 (+1.57%), holding within its 24h range between $0.2283 and $0.2471. Price is trading above MA5 ($0.2418), MA10 ($0.2405), and MA20 ($0.2367) on the 1H, bouncing off support at $0.2443. Driven by $5.31M USDT in daily turnover and 21.65M $DOS in 24h volume, breaking $0.2471 resistance could pave the way for a test of $0.2543 resistance level. #DailyOrbit Bitcoin's move back above $80,000 looks more like a credible risk reset than a fleeting headline spike. ETH is slightly stronger on the day, while SOL is lagging, which argues for selective participation rather than indiscriminate momentum chasing. My stance is cautiously constructive. Holding the $80,000 area would strengthen the case that buyers are absorbing supply, but a fast loss of that level would turn this into another failed breakout. Just my read, not advice. #DailyOrbit The short position strategy on Bitcoin perfectly played out ✅ A bearish signal was given at midnight, setting up short positions at resistance levels. The first target of 80800‑80500 was reached as expected, with the price pulling back to 80719, locking in profits! No chasing the rally at the top; recognizing the stagnation signal, playing the resistance level and waiting patiently for the pullback. The market moved as anticipated.A crypto treasury company compounds only while its stock trades above the coins it holds. Slip below and it reverses: no premium to issue equity against, so the choices narrow to selling the stack, getting acquired, or levering up to fake a yield. ETHZilla sold $40M of ETH for buybacks at a 30% discount; Metaplanet's mNAV sits at 0.99. My read: it's the structural cost of one reflexive asset carrying a whole equity story. NFA — DYOR. #CryptoTreasuryDurability 昨晚市场直接上演了一波“空头反杀”。 BTC 从 $7.7万附近一路拉升，最高逼近 $8.2万，单日涨幅一度超过6%。与此同时，$ETH、$XRP 等主流币也同步走强，整个加密市场风险偏好明显回暖。 这次上涨的核心催化剂，还是美联储。 美联储理事 Christopher Waller 最新释放明显偏鸽信号：如果接下来的8月通胀数据继续改善，他倾向于支持9月暂缓加息；但如果通胀重新升温，他仍会考虑加息。 市场马上给出了反应——9月加息预期从前一天约63%快速回落到50%左右，美债收益率和美元同步走弱，BTC 顺势突破 $8万。 但问题来了： $8万突破，是新一轮上涨的起点，还是短线情绪顶？ 我现在重点盯三个区域👇 📌 第一压力：$8.2万—$8.3万 这里是前期高点密集区，如果放量站稳，下一步才有机会继续打开上涨空间。 📌 第一支撑：$8万附近 突破之后能不能把 $8万从压力变成支撑，非常关键。 如果回踩 $8万附近能够稳住，多头结构依然完整；如果重新跌破，则要警惕回到 $7.7万—$7.8万区域寻找支撑。 📌 更重要的是宏观数据 9月11日公布美国8月CPI，这才是真正的“验证From the perspective of position structure, the account's current total leverage ratio is as high as 6.13x, and all three assets (PIPPIN, TRUMP, BONK) are in short (sell) positions. This one-sided positioning indicates that traders are extremely bearish on the current market sentiment or are concentrating their attacks on specific hot tokens (such as Meme coins). Regarding trading details, the strategy clearly shows a tendency of "heavy positions to seek small profits": PIPPINUSDT: Using 3x leverage, holding 600 units, with a return rate of 12.05%, but the actual profit is only 0.48 USDT. TRUMPUSDT: Using 5x leverage, return rate 13.70%, profit 0.56 USDT. BONKUSDT: Using 5x leverage, holding a huge amount (12.8 million units), return rate 9.96%, profit 0.81 USDT. Core risk analysis: Asymmetric profit and loss: the total profit of the three positions is less than 2 USDT, but each position uses 4-8 USDT margin and bears about 5x leverage risk for this small profit. If the market moves against the position by 15%-20%, the principal will face a huge drawdown risk. Meme coin volatility risk: The selected assets are all highly volatile Meme or politically themed coins (TRUMP, BONK). These assets are prone to "spike" movements, and 5x leverage can easily trigger forced liquidation under extreme volatility. Although the current maintenance margin ratio seems very high (1000%+), this is calculated based on the current small profit state; if prices rebound, the safety buffer will quickly disappear. Sorted it out a bit: Hawks think Iran is a mess, oil prices are soaring, so interest rate hikes are needed to curb inflation. Doves believe that the sharp rise in European and American bond yields approaching new highs makes rate hikes a further burden on bonds, plus pressure from Trump, so they probably won't dare to raise rates. Hawks worry about "inflation getting out of control," while doves worry that "the bond market will crash first" $CL $BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 The boot hasn't landed yet, and the knife hanging over our heads has been replaced by the CPI data. He didn't turn hawkish; the treasury yields fell, providing short-term support for Bitcoin, allowing it to catch a breather tonight. The decision power is handed over to the CPI: he clearly said whether to raise rates in September depends entirely on next week's CPI, which means BTC will be driven by CPI expectations over the next week, with the fuse for a sharp rise or fall set for next week. Currently, the market's upside and downside are locked: he said if inflation improves, there will be a pause, which is short-term bullish, but also clearly stated that if CPI rebounds, rate hikes will resume, which is clearly bearish. Bitcoin will most likely remain in a range-bound consolidation, making it difficult to see a strong one-sided trend. $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Ansem praises Bonk Guy as the strongest trader in public: repeatedly hitting major BONK, WIF, and Fartcoin rallies On September 4th, renowned trader Ansem highly praised trader Bonk Guy (Unipcs) during a live broadcast, calling him a top-tier trader who has long publicly shared his profits, losses, and trading logic. He reportedly earned over $10 million trading BONK, bought WIF when its market cap was under $10 million, and successfully caught major rallies of Meme coins like Fartcoin. Ansem stated that he doesn't know anyone stronger than him in public settings. On September 4th, well-known crypto trader Ansem gave very high praise to trader Bonk Guy (Unipcs) during a live stream, calling him a top trader and saying he doesn't know anyone stronger than him in public. Ansem listed several of Bonk Guy's public achievements: in the previous cycle, Bonk Guy openly shared his profit and loss records, something almost no one else did at the time. After publicly explaining his trading logic, he successfully caught multiple major Meme coin rallies, including earning over $10 million trading BONK; buying into dogwifhat (WIF) at a very early stage when its market cap was still under $10 million; and hitting the later explosive Fartcoin rally. Ansem emphasized that Bonk Guy has long publicly shared his trading ideas and has repeatedly successfully captured major Meme token rallies, with too many hits to count. In the crypto trading community, real-time public profit and loss sharing andIntroduction: Although it may hit new lows, it has entered a cyclical allocation range. The market, projects, coins, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Written by 0xWeilan @ eMerge IS At the end of August, $BTC BTC closed at $78,564, marking the largest single-month gain since the bear market began, totaling 25.04%. Just looking at the market is enough to prompt a reassessment of the current stage: BTC spot ETF average daily net inflow rose from $11.65 million in July to $106.13 million; average daily capital flow across the market shifted from -$74.78 million to $199.19 million; and stablecoin average daily net flow also shifted from -$93.48 million to +$41.14 million; The price has regained the short-term holder cost line of $70,936 and the true market price of $76,403. The question is not whether there is capital inflow, but why this round of funds is coming from, what attributes they have, and how long the entry conditions can last. After about half a year of bear market clearance, is it enough to complete the chip restructuring of the previous cycle and make August the starting point of a new cycle? Or is it an overly intense bear market rebound amplified by event funds and short squeezes amid temporary selling pressure fatigue? By the end of August, the halving cycle bear market had entered its late stage. The eMerge IS system still positioned August as a transition from a downward phase to a bottoming phase; EMC Labs believes it is time to consider whether "the old cycle is ending, and whether the new cycle is beginning to open."$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $CORE 【CORE dropped again, is the problem really solved?】 CORE barely managed to rebound to around 0.0236, but it couldn't hold. The price keeps fluctuating, and the market simply isn't buying it. The hard fork was indeed executed, permanently burning over 150 million CORE tokens, and malicious validators can no longer profit. But none of the core questions have been answered: exactly how much CORE was overissued? Have any extra tokens already entered the market? How exactly did the vulnerability occur? The technical review report is still not released, and the official statement just says "user asset security" and that's it. Exchange restrictions haven't been fully lifted either. You say this is all staged? Can't say for sure, but the project's "half-eat, half-hide" attitude really makes it hard to trust. A short-term deflation narrative rebound is fine, but long-term trust? Sorry, without the report, the risk remains. Do you trust it or do you trust me, Qin Shi Huang?Guys, Bitcoin is back in the market. BTC's latest price is around 80,800-81,200, up over 5% in 24 hours, and at one point approached 82,000 during trading. It pulled back from yesterday's low of 77,000 to 81,000, rising over 4,000 points in one day. ETH also rose above 2,500. In the past 24 hours, over $400 million was liquidated across the network, with short positions accounting for more than 80%. The panic and greed index rose from 63 to 65, with sentiment moving from "greed" to "extreme greed." How is this different from the breakout on August 25? Last time it was a direct rally—surging all at once without sufficient turnover, failing to hold and falling back to 77,000 in three days. This time, the bottom is confirmed first before the rally—77,000 is a triple bottom, lows keep rising, and only after holding above 80,000 does chasing sentiment be activated. A breakout that has pulled back, changed hands, and confirmed support is more reliable than the first breakthrough. Four things are happening simultaneously. First, rate hike expectations have plummeted from 63% to 50%. Fed Governor Waller sent a dovish signal—if August inflation data continues to improve, he will support keeping rates unchanged in September. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 63.2% to 50.4%. Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, clearly signaling a cooling labor market. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to around 4.76%, weakening the dollar. Macroeconomic headwinds are fading. Second, ETFs are continuously buying stocks. On September 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $358 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $269$BTC first retreated then followed the US stock market recovery, currently around 81000. The key level between bulls and bears is 80000; only a stable hold can talk about continuation, while losing it would return to the 77000 rebound starting point. #比特币再破80000美元 $ETH around 2500, with 2600 above confirming rebound strength, and 2450 below as the defense line; losing it means weakness. $SOL around 104, first watching the 100 whole number support on the pullback; if broken, its elasticity is greater than $BTC and $ETH, making it easier to be swept on non-farm payroll night. The three major mainstreams rebound simultaneously but have not shown independent trends; tonight will follow interest rate pricing. About $400 million liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, mostly shorts, indicating rebound squeeze; fees remain moderate, and leverage has not been cleared. Funds are mostly cautious. US stocks rebounded for the second consecutive day, $QQQ +1.40%, $SPY +1.06%. AI leads the gains, $NVDA closed at 228.45 and announced about $13 billion acquisition of Hugging Face; $META +3.01%, $MSFT +2.68%, $AAPL closed slightly higher. Waller said if inflation continues to decline, he tends to hold steady in September; the decline in US Treasury yields is the main reason for the rebound. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Tonight's non-farm payroll is the key to setting the tone for September's path; overall, it is still a policy expectation-driven recovery, so positions remain cautious. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 前几天还在聊 Strategy 囤 BTC、Robinhood 链上业务升温、Circle 稳定币扩张，结果风险偏好一回来，资金直接往高弹性资产里冲。 $MSTR 单日飙升约 17%，$HOOD 接近 16%，$CRCL 也大涨约 16%，$BMNR 同样录得双位数涨幅。相比之下，美股大盘只是温和上涨，Crypto相关股票明显跑出了更高的Beta。 背后的逻辑其实很简单：BTC上涨 → 加密市场情绪修复 → 资金追逐高弹性股票。 尤其是 MSTR 这类BTC资产高度绑定的公司，行情好的时候就像给BTC行情叠加了一层杠杆；而 HOOD、CRCL 则更多受交易活跃度、稳定币和数字资产业务预期推动。 更值得关注的是，Waller释放偏鸽信号后，市场对9月继续加息的担忧有所下降，BTC一度冲上 $81,000附近，直接带动整个Crypto板块风险偏好回暖。 但今天还有一个真正的大考：美国8月非农。 市场目前预期新增就业约 5.8万人，数据若明显偏弱，可能进一步强化宽松预期；反过来如果就业超预期，Crypto高Beta资产也可能先涨后杀。 📌 现在的核心不是“谁涨得最多”，而是谁能在非农之后继On September 4th, the US August nonfarm payroll data will be the biggest catalyst for the market today. What the market is most conflicted about right now is not the nonfarm data itself, but whether it will continue to change the Fed's rate hike expectations for September 16th. Currently, the market's judgment on a September rate hike has quickly dropped from over 60% the day before to nearly an even split. Waller's statement yesterday also led the market to start betting again on "maintaining the current interest rate." So today, we can simply consider three scenarios: First, nonfarm data is significantly weaker than expected. Employment continues to cool down, the probability of a rate hike may further decline, and BTC has a chance to retest $80,000. Second, data basically meets expectations. The market may fluctuate briefly but will ultimately return to rate expectations and the September 11 CPI. Third, nonfarm data is significantly stronger than expected. Rate hike expectations rise again, the dollar and US Treasury yields come under pressure, risk assets suffer, and BTC may instead retest lower support levels. Interestingly, the options market has already made defensive moves in advance, with obvious downside protection layouts in the $68,000–$75,000 range. So what’s really worth watching today is not whether the nonfarm data is bullish or bearish. It’s how the funds reprice rates and BTC after the data is released. $BTC Next is the Solana section The current price is about 100, stuck in the middle zone between bulls and bears, not yet entering the shortable area, nor has it returned to the long zone I want. SOL still follows Bitcoin's big swings up and down, so don't treat it as independently strong yet. I suggest waiting for a retest near 95 to gradually buy longs, with a stop loss at 90; consider shorts only when it approaches 120 to 130. Only after breaking through 130 should you seriously reconsider the positioning; for now, don't prematurely change your framework. The US stock spot Solana ETF funds started to shake in the past two days. On September 1, there was still about $10.2 million net inflow, but the next day it turned into about $6.13 million net outflow, mainly from Bitwise BSOL outflows. Institutions haven't fully exited, but the rhythm is no longer as stable as in late August. In the short term, it looks more like rotation and turnover following the broader market. The chips are still fluctuating, so don't rush to claim that the earlier inflows have already formed an independent trend.Shorted $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payroll tonight! Just now, $ETH gave me a comfortable short position near 2510, and the position is already entered. Why dare to short at this level? $ETH has rebounded continuously to above 2500, but this level clearly has resistance. If it continues to surge in the short term, first observe whether the 2520-2550 area can truly hold The real big variable tonight is not ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll. #DailyOrbit The moment Jensen Huang dropped this acquisition pawn, the entire open file on the chessboard quietly changed hands. Hugging Face is not a chip, not computing power, but the chessboard behind all AI players' opening repertoire—the $12.93 billion purchase is the opening library of the entire ecosystem. $11.9 billion given to shareholders is the pawn already in the mouth; $1 billion reserved for employees is the soft ribbon hanging on the king's wing. Outsiders look at valuation, insiders look at the hidden intention behind this move. The loudest move is hidden in the promise—"no mandatory use of Nvidia computing." This is equivalent to telling opponents: choose your opening. But grandmasters all understand, the real trap is not refusing to vary, but making the opponent believe they have the freedom to choose. When Fischer abandoned the queen in Reykjavik, it was not the queen itself but the psychological space conceded to the opponent that mattered. Hugging Face is that central square. Models, datasets, and AI applications all revolve around this square. Controlling the center square but not immediately delivering checkmate is Nvidia's smartest sequence. Because once the pawn directly attacks the king's wing, regulators will intervene like referees calling a stop for "threefold repetition." So it yields the queen's wing, temporarily guards its composure, continues to open interfaces, and does not block lines. But all developers moving pieces along this open file must pay an invisible toll: learning paths, model formats, deployment habits, and the archival rights of every future game record. First occupy the standards, then consider monetization—this is the order after long consideration, not a momentary skirmish. Regulatory eyes fall from two sides. One is scrutiny of monopoly over the computing layer, the other is concern over the concentration of model distribution entry points. The queen's wing rooks have already connected the semi-open file, forcing the opponent's castle defense to shrink. Legislators on both sides of the ocean are like raising the chess clock to count down, but the deal is not set to close until the first half of 2027. The time gap creates a subtle "transition": enough for all parties to complete piece exchanges, and enough for laws to leave a new horizontal line on the chessboard. All rules are modified before the endgame—this is a game history repeatedly tells. Look again at the sideline $xUSAR. It is like a white-square bishop, not on the main battlefield but closely watching this diagonal. The market interprets the concessions and reversals in the "open promise," and it then leans forward to sprint; when the antitrust cloud drifts by, it quickly retreats back to its camp. Large orders on the token market are arranged like waiting moves common in endgames—who moves first exposes intentions; who controls the line can harvest the opponent's hesitation in the pendulum swing. It has not promoted yet, but every move it makes prices the final position. True masters do not ask "Will buying the open center destroy openness?" They only ask: who adjudicates the boundaries of this open file, who records the takebacks, who decides when to exchange pieces. When all opponents think they can still freely move along this open file of public documents, the pawns they advance in the midgame have long been firmly pinned down by that bishop lurking under the diagonal. As for when it will promote—that is the matter of the endgame. #nvidiahuggingfacedealNonfarm payroll data ignited the market, with BTC surging from 76,151 to 80,640, a nearly 6% increase in a single day, returning above 80,000. The hourly MACD golden cross is diverging upward, with trading volume significantly expanding and strong bullish momentum. However, 81,000-81,500 is the previous high resistance zone and the key resistance level for this round of rally. If volume increases, a new high is expected; if it pulls back under pressure, a double top structure will form. Whoever wins or bears will follow. Keep a close eye on these two levels. Key points: 80,000-80,200. If the pullback holds, the bullish trend will continue. Target is 81,500-82,000. Key points: 81,000-81,500. If the rebound comes under pressure, bears will take over. Target is 80,000-79,500. Logic for bullish and bearish views: (1) The unexpected nonfarm payroll reaction strengthens expectations for rate cuts, confirming a macro liquidity turning point, and risk assets are rebounding across the board. (2) Hourly volume increases and breaks through multiple resistance levels at 78,000, 79,000, and 80,000; MACD golden cross is rising , strong bullish trend (3) Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, institutional funds continue to replenish the market. Bearish reasons: (1) 81,000-81,500 is a previous high resistance zone; all three peaks in August ended in pullback, leaving trapped positions heavy. (2) Sharp single-day surges close to 6%, short-term overbought and RSI near overbought zone, increasing the risk of chasing highs (3) After nonfarm payrolls are realized, there is a lack of new catalysts to drive further upward movement. What should I do? Go long on pullback: If 80,000-80,200 does not break, buy long, stop loss at 79,500, target 81,500-82,000. Do on the rebound🔥$ETH On-Chain Talk Show: Staking queue is 36 days long, mainnet burns 38 ETH, some L2s earn 3.75 million daily while others shut down Newcomers often get fooled by "busy ecosystem" when looking at ETH. Let's laugh first at three sets of data: Staking is like waiting in line at a popular restaurant: about 42.6 million ETH staked, accounting for 34.94% of circulating supply, 2.074 million in queue, waiting about 36 days, no exit queue; this means everyone wants to lock up for yield, but new money entering has to wait a month, so short-term circulation may not tighten immediately. Mainnet is like an energy-saving office: sampling 20 blocks shows base fee at 0.1332 gwei, total L1 fees over 30 days about $10.4 million, annualized about $127 million; since the merge, daily burn averages 1391 ETH, now only about 38.7 ETH daily, remaining 2.8%. After Blob moved Rollup data off-chain, L1 execution demand became sparse. "Network busy" does not equal "mainnet burning money"; the deflation story depends on high-value L1 settlement. L2 differentiation is like two company departments: Robinhood Chain daily fees $3.75 million, exceeding Solana + ETH mainnet + Base; but small network Silicon stopped deposits on September 2 and testnet, withdrawals only until December 31. Big L2s have volume, small L2s run away. When looking at the ecosystem, don't just look at total TVL. "$ETH = staking long queues, mainnet energy-saving, big L2s making money, small L2s shutting down; true scarcity looks at L1 actual burn + big L2 retention, not just the four words 'Ethereum is busy'." Above the 80th floor, the dampers begin to emit a low-frequency whine—you all focus only on the order book, while I follow the core tube wall to find the yield point of the rebar. 80,000 is not just a simple price line. If it can stand above it again, it means the main structure has not yet reached the yield bending moment, but it repeatedly probes and hovers between 80,000 and 82,500, because this floor is the transfer floor of the entire building. With the Fed-hike expectations fading and U.S. Treasury yields dropping, it’s like a row of anchor cables on the north side of the foundation pit has been removed. There is a principle in structural codes: when soil pressure changes, all temporary supports must be recalculated. The market is now recalculating the pile cap beam called the term spread; every turn is a trace left by creep in the cracks. The net inflow of spot ETFs in August is like concrete pump trucks continuously pouring the core tube day and night; by early September, capital inflows and outflows start to interweave, a rhythm known on construction sites as the “support replacement period.” Formwork is dismantled layer by layer, and the concrete must support the above-ground weight that is not yet complete. Any floor with inadequate curing will later show irreversible deflection. So some see the parapet at 86,000 on the blueprint—the liquid capital still insists this elevation is feasible; others choose to withdraw the pump pipe before the slab at 82,050 reaches initial set—Jiang Zhuoer’s sell was an active unload, no longer bearing the bending moment of the subsequent continuous beams. The BTC-gold 90-day correlation curve Bitwise mentioned is not a safety lock. In architecture, this is called a rigid connection corridor: you weld the main building to a counterweight tower rich in metal reserves, which seems to stabilize the base but actually makes the two dynamic systems share vibration modes. When one side is sucked by the wind, the other side shakes along, and the curtain wall sealant ages faster than anything else in the 0.2 Hz breathing. Gold is not a cushion layer; that correlation is a beam of great stiffness, directly transmitting the macro volatility of precious metals into the load-bearing skeleton of the crypto building. The selling pressure between 80,000 and 82,500 is an exterior wall bearing positive wind pressure, with wind load already exceeding half of the design reference period. ETF capital flow is the only energy-consuming damper, but its capacity is limited. London gold and U.S. Treasury yields continuously input low-frequency energy at the other end, and the $xMU annex building also emits a hissing friction sound along the wall corner line—its linkage direction exposes the damping ratio of the main structure: if the annex swings higher and higher, it means the main building’s joints have loosened rather than become more solid. I zoom in on the 80,000 section, reading the least noticed node area on the architectural drawings. Welding rods and bent rebar connections differ by a hair on the drawings but diverge by miles during an earthquake. True structural safety is never written on the parapet elevation but in every encrypted stirrup hook. Raising interest rates means death, not raising interest rates also means death; this pawn is inherently toxic☠️ Think about it, with 40 trillion in US debt weighing down, raising interest rates? Interest expenses would explode, causing a fiscal collapse right before your eyes. Not raising interest rates? The US dollar's credit continues to dilute, and inflation can't be contained. Neither option is favorable. So some say the cleanest solution is to start a war🔥 If they win, the debt is wiped clean; if they lose, they become slaves. But the question is, does the US really have that determination? I think it's doubtful. They are now hesitant even to fight Iran, let alone make a big move to overturn the table. After all, if a real war breaks out, the financial system collapses first, the rich flee first, who would still care about national credit? So don't take the idea of "war solving debt" too seriously. They don't have the guts, nor the necessity. The most likely path is the old routine: talk tough and raise rates, but actually print money and drag it out slowly. For us in the crypto circle, seeing through this is enough. (September 4, 2026) Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads triggered by a reversal in macro policy expectations 1. Core direction: short-term high-level oscillation and tug-of-war, upward breakout depends on macro data sentiment Bitcoin, after experiencing a short squeeze triggered by the "Fed's dovish signals," has currently risen above the $80,000 mark (currently about $81,200). However, the short-term direction is not yet fully clear, and it is highly likely to trade sideways in the $80,000 to $82,000 range. The current daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone (above 73), and short-term momentum shows signs of weakening, indicating the market needs time to digest profits. 2. The "starting gun" for an upward breakout: today's non-farm payroll data The biggest variable determining whether Bitcoin can firmly hold above $80,000 and push toward the $83,000-$84,000 range is the upcoming U.S. August non-farm payroll data. ● Bullish scenario: If the non-farm data is significantly below expectations (soft print), it will firmly consolidate the "no rate hike" expectation. Coupled with continued net inflows into spot ETFs, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $81,800 resistance level with volume and move to higher levels. ● Bearish scenario: If the non-farm data overheats, rate hike expectations may rebound, and Bitcoin will face the risk of retesting the key support level at $78,670 BTC surged back to 80,000 overnight: Is this a breakout or a pre-nonfarm rush? $BTC Last night, BTC suddenly rallied quickly from around $77,000, immediately reclaiming $80,000, with an intraday high close to $82,300. Is last night's big bullish candle a true breakout, or is the market front-running ahead of the nonfarm payroll release? First, let's look at why it rose last night The most direct catalyst came from the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday that if upcoming inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he is willing to support keeping rates unchanged in September. After this statement, the market quickly lowered its bets on a September rate hike. Previously, the market had priced in over a 63% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September. After Waller's remarks, this probability dropped to about 50%. At the same time: US Treasury yields fell, The dollar weakened, US stocks rose, BTC broke above $80,000 again. The entire transmission logic is very coherent. In other words, BTC's rise last night was not a baseless "crypto market sudden frenzy." The market is actually re-pricing something: The Fed may not be as hawkish as previously thought a few days ago. This is certainly bullish for BTC. Another part of last night's rally likely came from short sellers. Before breaking $80,000, BTC had been stuck around $77,000–$78,000 for a while. Many traders started shorting. As a result, when the price suddenly broke out: Shorts were liquidated, Creating a classic short squeeze. But after all these shorts were closed out, The buying pressure disappeared. So: A short squeeze can create a breakout but cannot guarantee the breakout will hold. What truly determines whether $80,000 can hold is: After the squeeze ends, are there new buyers to continue supporting? Because BTC has actually just gone through a very similar scenario. At the end of August, BTC also broke $80,000. Then the buying did not continue, And the price quickly fell back to the $70,000 range. And now there is an important level above: Around $82,800. This area is close to BTC's high in May this year and coincides with some long-term technical resistance zones. More importantly: tonight is the nonfarm payrolls release. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report today at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time. Currently, the market expects: About 56,000 new nonfarm jobs in the US for August, With the unemployment rate holding around 4.1%. The market has actually already started to price this in. After Waller's speech yesterday, The market has partially priced in: "The Fed may not be that hawkish." BTC has already risen in advance. So the real risk tonight is: Nonfarm payrolls not cooperating. Suppose tonight's release shows: 150,000 new jobs, Far exceeding market expectations. The market will immediately reconsider. Then the macro logic that pushed BTC up last night Could be directly reversed. At that time: whether $80,000 is a valid breakout Will be immediately tested. Conversely, if tonight's nonfarm is significantly weaker than expected: For example, only 20,000 or 30,000, Or even negative growth again. If BTC can still hold above $80,000, Then I would think: the credibility of this breakout is clearly higher. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 当前影响比特币市场的核心逻辑可归结为两大维度：宏观流动性与市场周期。 宏观流动性：市场已充分计价（Price In） • 央行政策紧缩：受持续高通胀影响，美联储维持鹰派立场，日本银行及欧洲央行跟进加息，全球主要央行收紧银根，多国国债发行承压。 • 挤出效应显现：AI等基础设施建设的爆发式推进，促使大型企业大量发债，占据了市场相当一部分流动性。 市场周期：熊市尾部支撑底部 • 目前市场已运行至熊市周期的尾声阶段，这一周期性特征为币价提供了较强的下方支撑，并蕴含一定上涨动力。 行情趋势研判 • 比特币（BTC）：在宏观流动性受限但周期提供支撑的博弈下，短期内既难以爆发式突破历史新高，也极难跌破5万美元支撑位。震荡横盘、微涨或小幅回调是当前环境下的高概率走势。若未来全球流动性显著改善，不排除开启主升浪突破历史新高、甚至下半场冲刺15万美元的可能性。 • 山寨币（Altcoins）：分化趋势将愈发剧烈： • 有收入/有协议费率的项目（如Robinhood相关的UNI、ARB等）：具备实际基本面支撑，易呈现轮动上涨行情。 • 无收入的知名公链（如DOT、ADA、APT等）：受发链门槛大幅降低（如What is driving this reversal? 1. Geopolitical panic was quickly digested, and the market realized "much ado about nothing" 2. Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative inflows exceeding $3.1 billion in August; institutions haven't fled at all 3. Shorts were overly crowded before the non-farm payrolls, ready to collapse at any moment #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 *Englis* The loudest signal in crypto right now isn’t an alt pumping. It’s where institutions are choosing _not_ to deploy capital. In the last session, *Bitcoin ETFs saw ∼$116M in inflows*. Meanwhile *Ethereum ETFs had ∼$62M in outflows* and *XRP ETFs dropped ∼$9.4M*. That snapped multi-week inflow runs for both $ETH and $XRP. That’s not a “risk-on across the board” setup. It’s a very targeted rotation. *$BTC* is getting the institutional bid again, but that money isn’t spilling into alts yThe market was very strong before today's open, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising broadly. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement. Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday. This effectively changed Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike unless the data is good enough" to "no hike unless the data is hot enough." Influenced by this speech, the CME's probability of a September rate hike dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4%. According to the logic that gold prices rise when the rate hike probability falls and fall when it rises, the recent gold price rally is pricing in this 10% drop in the rate hike probability. In other words, the previous 4280 price level might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's big Nonfarm Payrolls, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in. Moreover, after gold's recent rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2, 10, and 30 years all showed significant declines. If yields rebound, today's sharp jump could still be retraced $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC market news is really conflicting right now. On one side, KOLs are hyping ZEC, saying that ETF institutions entering the market will push it up; on the other side, institutional reports are pouring cold water, saying the bear market isn't over yet and there's a chance for new lows in November. I'm also pondering the election situation. If Trump loses, the likelihood of subsequent rate hikes will really increase. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, wanting to improve the market for his own benefit. Once he loses, the political pressure to cut rates will lessen, and the Fed could loosen up. If inflation data is weak, rate hikes could resume, which would definitely be very negative for the crypto space. Of course, everything ultimately depends on tonight's big non-farm payrolls. The smaller non-farm data has already weakened, and many are betting that tonight's big non-farm will be positive, meaning poor employment will continue to fuel rate cut speculation, which could easily cause the market to collectively surge. For coins like ZEC, which are purely sentiment-driven and riding the ETF story, it might even directly surge to 1000-1200. But be cautious. Even if the data is positive, it’s easy to see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario, where the market turns and dumps after the good news is realized. ZEC itself has a weak foundation and relies entirely on narrative hype; it rises sharply but also falls mercilessly. I don’t want to keep stressing over this coin anymore; holding it is too costly mentally. I plan to watch the market, and if it crashes further this afternoon, I’ll just take the loss and exit, then block it and stop playing with it. 🤮 There are two possible scenarios ahead: Non-farm is positive, liquidity loosens, themes continue to ferment, and ZEC keeps skyrocketing; 💹 If the election situation changes and rate hike expectations re-emerge, the whole market will be under pressure, and ZEC will crash badly. $BTC $ZEC All of this is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Elon Musk is once again intensifying the challenge for all humanity. What he said at the G20, I think what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t those exaggerated timelines, but the direction he’s betting on: In the end, AI isn’t just about models, but about electricity, chips, computing power, and physical manufacturing. Musk made several very radical predictions. First, in the next 12–18 months, AI might replace a large amount of purely computer-based work. Second, because robot capability isn’t a single breakthrough but a product of: AI capability × chip capability × mechatronics × dexterous hands. When all these improve exponentially together, once crossing a critical point, the robotics industry might not grow linearly but suddenly accelerate. Third, and what I think is most easily underestimated: the real bottleneck for AI might be electricity. Models can be copied, code can be copied, but power plants can’t be replicated overnight. AI chips, data centers, and robots are all voracious consumers of electricity. $TSLA While others are still competing over models and talent, he has already extended the battlefield all the way to: AI → data → chips → computing power → electricity → robots → manufacturing → rockets. The first stage is building a highway for AI. The second stage is letting AI truly start making money on that highway. So the real big opportunity in the future, I believe, may no longer just be "selling shovels." It’s those who hold the shovels and truly turn AI into productivity, profit, and new economic growth.Ethena project-related address suspected of clearing out after 2 years of dormancy? Assets have shrunk by 65%🥹 Address 0x891…e4041 received 14 million $ENA transferred from Ethena multisig address in July 2024, valued at 6.89 million USD at the time, with a token price of $0.4928 6 hours ago, all tokens were deposited into an exchange, leaving only 2.41 million USD, a decrease of 4.48 million USD compared to the time of receipt, and a drop of over 8.735 million USD compared to the peak value... Wallet address 0x89105d5d86854Bfb953408aFD6eFde1bB65e4041ZEC continues to hit new highs?? BTC breaks 81,000, Waller's dovish speech triggers altcoin rally! $ZEC 943 up 16%, leading the market for the second consecutive day, continuing to hit an 8-year high. This privacy coin rally is fundamentally driven — Ironwood upgrade fixed a supply forgery vulnerability, SEC closed the case on Zcash Foundation with no fines, plus 31% of circulating supply locked in shielded pools tightening supply, institutional accumulation combined with short covering, volume expanded to 750 million; 950 is short-term resistance, holding above it targets 1000, a pullback to 900 without breaking is still strong. $BTC 81,545 up 5%, Fed Governor Waller's speech suppressing rate hike expectations is the core catalyst, CME September rate hike probability dropped from 70% to 50%, risk assets broadly loosened, $140 million short positions were squeezed out when breaking 81,000; 81,000 now acts as support, resistance at 83,000, as long as 80,000 holds before nonfarm payrolls, the bullish structure remains. This rally is emotional repair, not capital flight. $XRP 1.45 up 8%, leading mainstream gains, regulatory tailwinds continue to ferment and funds rotate from BTC to altcoins, XRP has become the locomotive of this altcoin rally; 1.40 is strong support, a volume breakout above 1.50 targets 1.55, as long as the trend is intact, don't exit lightly. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Oil prices have surged to a six-week high again, but this time it's not just a simple case of "US-Iran conflict driving crude prices up"; the actual amount of oil that can be shipped out of the Middle East is decreasing!! Brent $BZ briefly hit $97.29 today, and WTI reached $93.04, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. After the US airstrike on Iran, only 6 commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 the day before, and about 13 on average over the past 10 days. Shipping pressure is clearly rising again. What's more troublesome is that Middle East supply is already contracting. From March to July this year, Middle East crude oil exports dropped about 40% year-on-year. Japan even increased its US crude oil imports by over 400% year-on-year to fill the gap. It's not that oil is completely unavailable, but the previously cheap and convenient Middle East oil is becoming harder to transport, forcing global buyers to take longer routes and pay higher shipping costs. Now, even if OPEC+ wants to increase production, whether they can safely deliver the oil is another issue. The Sunday meeting is expected to maintain the current production policy for now, with the market focus shifting from "how much to produce" to "whether it can be shipped out." So, I am now mainly watching the Strait of Hormuz and the $100 price level for oil. If shipping conditions continue to worsen, energy stocks like XOM and $CVX can still benefit from the oil price rally; but for $QQQ, it's tough—the higher the oil price, the harder it is to ease inflation and interest rate pressures. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Today, the global risk assets tell only one story: the Fed's rate hike expectations are cooling down. Cross-market comparison (9/4): US stocks: Nasdaq +1.40% (26,584.06) | S&P +1.06% (7,747.71) | Dow +1.18% Crypto-linked stocks: MSTR +17.56% (disclosed buying $600 million BTC again) | Coinbase +10.14% | Robinhood +16.57% Commodities / Forex: Spot gold breaks $4,500/oz, dollar index weakens Crypto: $BTC breaks 82,000 (about +25% in August, best monthly performance since November 2024) | ETH +4.49% closing at 2,499.60 (see attached 1H chart) One main storyline throughout: Waller "Inflation cooling means maintaining rates" → CME September rate hike probability drops from 70% to about 50% → US Treasury yields fall → funds collectively go risk-on. Crypto's position in this chain is the "high beta version" of US stocks: Nasdaq up 1.4%, crypto stocks up 10–17%, $BTC up 5–6%, $ETH up 4.5%. The greater the elasticity, the louder the fall—remember this attribute. Three key time points ahead: Tonight 20:30 (Beijing time): August Nonfarm Payrolls — the "verdict" on rate hike expectations $DELL and $AVGO Looking at these two earnings reports together, I think the signal is already very clear: The next phase of AI hardware will no longer be just GPUs. The most striking thing about Dell is: AI server revenue $16.4 billion, +100% Quarterly AI server orders $60.9 billion Backlog directly reaches $95 billion This shows that enterprises and cloud providers are still frantically expanding AI servers. And AVGO is even more direct: AI semiconductor revenue $16.7 billion, +221% Future AI revenue targets are projected as: FY27 about $115 billion FY28 about $230 billion Putting these two earnings reports together actually explains the entire industry chain. More servers → More GPUs/XPUs → Greater demand for HBM/DRAM → Higher demand for network switching → More 800G/1.6T optical modules → Increasing data, so SSD/NAND will also expand → Finally, more power and liquid cooling are needed So now when I look at AI hardware, I no longer just focus on $NVDA . The most directly benefiting group: SK Hynix, $MU — HBM/DRAM $ANET — AI networking $LITE, $COHR — Optical communications $SNDK — Enterprise SSD/NAND $VRT, $ETN — Power supply and liquid cooling Predict.fun Launches SHEIN Intraday Stock Price Rise and Fall Prediction Market On September 4th, prediction market platform Predict.fun announced the launch of the SHEIN (Xiyin) rise and fall prediction market, where users can trade predictions on the daily stock price movement direction of SHEIN. Market probabilities and related data change in real time with trading. Prediction markets have been one of the fastest-growing sectors in the crypto industry in recent years. Their core mechanism allows users to trade based on the outcome of a future event, with the market price implying the real-time consensus probability of all participants on the event's occurrence. The SHEIN intraday rise and fall market launched by Predict.fun extends the prediction targets from common scenarios such as elections, sports events, and crypto asset prices to the traditional stock market. Users can bet on the daily stock price movement direction of SHEIN for each trading day. SHEIN is a globally renowned cross-border fast fashion e-commerce platform, and the market has long maintained high attention on its listing progress and valuation. The intraday rise and fall prediction market launched around this target provides short-term opinion traders with a new tool for expression, and its implied probability can also serve as a reference dimension to observe market sentiment on SHEIN's short-term trend. The launch of this product reflects the trend of prediction market platforms accelerating their penetration into traditional financial assets. After macro event markets such as US stock elections and interest rate decisions, intraday prediction markets at the individual stock level are beginning to emerge, indicating that the trend is accelerating.Today is September 4, 2026, 10:46. Before analyzing the copy, don't forget to summarize! After four months of losses totaling 3338U, I deeply reflected! A profound summary! A bloody lesson!!! 1. Control your position size, no more than 30% of your principal. 2. Never use leverage over 20X, preferably within 10X. 3. Always reject altcoins! 4. Only trade trend-following orders! 5. You must hold on, for days, weeks, or even months; to make money, patience is essential! 6. Hold at most 4 coins simultaneously, don't buy randomly! 7. Establish a small amount of hedging, set take profit and stop loss for hedges! Main orders only set take profit!! From now on, I will strictly follow the above lessons! Successful and qualified traders are disciplined, patient, and mentally stable! Thousands enter the market, but only a few succeed! Brothers, please witness with me the day I break even and earn ten million! $Overseas social platforms today broadcast public speeches by Federal Reserve officials. They stated no rush to start rate cuts in the short term, and inflation data still carries rebound risks. After the speech, US stocks and international gold plunged rapidly, and the crypto market followed risk assets into a correction. Market risk aversion sentiment quickly intensified. 💥The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours reached $2.27 billion, with 136,000 liquidation accounts. Short liquidations were $830 million, long liquidations $1.44 billion. After the rapid sharp drop, low-position shorts were also liquidated. Both longs and shorts suffered losses, with short-term volatility maxed out. Small and mid-cap altcoins retraced far more than the major market, showing clear signs of capital flight. 📊Spot$BTC $ETH data itself shows 206,000 initial claims, 1,000 higher than expected; continuing claims at 1.779 million, 16,000 lower than expected. It's neither here nor there. The low number of new claims indicates companies are not conducting large-scale layoffs. The slight rise in continuing claims suggests that unemployed people may be slower to find jobs. Overall, this points to slow hiring and slow layoffs, which cannot be considered a loosening signal, let alone a positive one. BTC's recent rise happened simultaneously with the data, but close timing does not equal causation. Also, this week's initial claims data is not within the August nonfarm payroll survey period, so it does not affect the nonfarm statistical scope at all. The market using this as an excuse to push prices up can only be seen as finding reasons to move during a data vacuum. The real test will be tonight's nonfarm payrolls and whether BTC can hold above 80k after the data release. If nonfarm is strong, the rate hike expectation will be locked in, making this rebound a bull trap. If nonfarm is weak, the probability of rate hikes loosens, and this rebound may have a chance to continue. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Is the bull market arriving? Stablecoin issuer Circle's stock CRCL closed at $103.23, up 16.46%, reaching an intraday high of $103.28, with the closing price just $0.05 below the day's high. Meanwhile, Coinbase rose 10.14% to $192.70. BTC dominance (the percentage of Bitcoin's market cap relative to the total crypto market cap) remains at 59%, and the Altcoin Season Index is still below 50, meaning money is still hiding in BTC and hasn't spread out. What the funds are doing is "rotation," not "entry." Every bull market cycle has a clear leading narrative: 2017 was ICOs, 2020–21 was DeFi Summer plus NFT, 2023–24 is spot ETFs plus Meme and Solana. So far in this cycle, there is no widely recognized protagonist. Whoever truly brings incremental users from outside the circle will be the lead this round. Without a protagonist, it's just a very beautiful short squeeze. #比特币再破80000美元 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Bitget launches GoPro stock perpetual contract, increasing platform's stock contract offerings to 304 On September 4, Bitget announced the addition of GoPro (GPRO) to its stock perpetual contracts, settled in USDT, supporting up to 20x leverage and 24/7 trading. The total number of stock perpetual contract offerings on the platform has reached 304. On September 4, Bitget issued an official announcement declaring the addition of GoPro (GPRO) to its stock perpetual contracts. This contract is settled in USDT, supports up to 20x leverage, and offers 24/7 continuous trading, distinctly different from the limited trading hours of traditional US stocks. With this, the number of stock perpetual contract offerings supported by Bitget has reached 304. Stock perpetual contracts have become a key derivative category expanded by crypto exchanges in recent years. Their mechanism is similar to cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, anchoring the underlying stock price through a funding rate mechanism but settled in stablecoins, allowing crypto users to gain exposure to individual stock prices without opening a US stock brokerage account. Compared to the limited daily trading hours of traditional stock markets, these contracts support round-the-clock trading, allow for both long and short positions, and leverage stacking, mainly attracting users seeking high-volatility trading opportunities. GoPro, as a sports camera manufacturer, has experienced significant stock price volatility in recent years, often showing sharp fluctuations due to performance results, product launches, or market sentiment. Such high-volatility stocks are often popular choices when derivative platforms list new offerings. For Bitget, continuously expanding the number of stock contract offerings is its push*English v1* *$BTC* is bouncing back above *$78.2K* after buyers stepped in and held the *$77.05K* zone — that level lines up with where most active traders are sitting on their entries. It shows demand is still in the market and sellers aren’t in full control. But the real test is *$80.8K*. Friday’s U.S. jobs report could be the spark for big moves. So instead of chasing pumps, the key is to watch if BTC can keep this bounce going and actually flip *$80.8K* into support. That’s what would#Waller: August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September Latest data Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that whether to raise rates in September largely depends on the August CPI inflation data. If inflation cools down, the tendency is to hold steady; if the data heats up, it supports a rate hike. After the speech, the expectation for a September rate hike dropped directly to around 50%, and U.S. Treasury yields fell. The market price of $BTC is 80814, with a slight rebound, but overall it is still oscillating within a range, and funds are reluctant to make large bets in advance. Market consensus Many traders interpret this statement as a dovish signal, believing that pressure will ease and risk assets can catch a breather; another group remains cautious, thinking it just passes the ball to the inflation data and does not completely close the door on rate hikes. If CPI heats up, the market will be immediately pushed back. Underlying logic analysis Now Fed officials avoid making definitive statements, all tying decisions to the upcoming inflation data. The crypto market currently has no independent momentum; fluctuations in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar directly drive the market. The speech only brings emotional relief; real large fluctuations will only materialize once the CPI data is released. Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice) Do not blindly turn bullish just because of the speech; the sustainability of the rebound caused by the news is questionable. As the key data approaches, control your positions and wait for solid data before making judgments. $ZEC has launched, and its rise will make you dizzy! ZEC topped today's trending list, up 15%, directly hitting 979! Just one step away from 1000 dollars. This is not retail speculation; institutional channels have truly opened. Real money ETF has arrived. Grayscale ZCSH (formerly Zcash Trust converted to spot ETF) was listed on NYSE Arca on 8/25, the world's first ZEC spot ETP, now holding over 400,000 coins with AUM exceeding 300 million dollars. Institutions can allocate ZEC without opening wallets, changing the demand structure. The narrative has changed. Early privacy coins = regulatory risk + delisting, now it’s "In the AI surveillance era, you need financial privacy." Grayscale directly uses AI surveillance as a point, blocking 4.81 million ZEC (28% of circulation) in the shielded pool, indicating it’s not pure speculation. Leverage + breakout triggered short squeeze. After breaking 900, shorts were trapped; RSI at 79.6 hasn’t exploded yet, but 1000 is a key round number, volatility will explode. Don’t forget the lesson from the Orchard vulnerability in June that caused a 50% drop in one day; Ironwood was only fixed in July. Looking at 7 days, it aims to hit 1000, but it’s seriously overbought. 813 is today’s low, 845 is the bull-bear line; if it can’t hold, it will retest. Hold onto the privacy narrative, don’t chase at the 1000 threshold.
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