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Why do crypto traders have to worry about oil prices too? Saudi exports have dropped to a nine-year low, 😅
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
Everyone was waiting for the non-farm payrolls, but now crude oil is causing trouble again.
Bloomberg cited shipping tracking data showing Saudi observable crude oil exports in August dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest in at least nine years. The problem is that the Red Sea route, originally used to avoid the Strait of Hormuz risk, has also seen oil tankers attacked. The oil is there, but whether it can be safely transported out has become an issue.
On September 2, Brent crude closed at $95.63. This price really can’t be ignored by the crypto world.
It’s quite frustrating: if employment weakens, the market could have expected the Fed to ease; but with oil prices continuously rising, gasoline and transportation costs might push inflation up. Then, when the economy needs a breather, prices won’t cooperate, making rate cuts even harder to expect.
Of course, rising oil prices don’t necessarily mean BTC will fall that day, nor does it mean the Fed will definitely raise rates. What’s truly worrying is when oil prices rise and then stay high for a long time. A one-time spike and several weeks of high oil prices have very different impacts on inflation expectations.
So the key thing to watch in this news is how much exports can recover afterward. If ships can sail normally, supply concerns might ease. Just hearing “the situation is easing” honestly isn’t reassuring enough.
Sigh, trading crypto is getting harder and harder...The ETF capital flow on August 31 reveals an intriguing signal: whether the altcoin season has arrived is still undecided, but the logic of fund allocation is clearly quietly changing. On that day, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $216.7 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $205.9 million, followed by Ethereum recording $87.6 million, and ETHA contributing $59.9 million. In contrast, inflows for SOL and XRP were both below the ten-million-dollar level, while HYPE was almost flat.
While Bitcoin oscillated between $77,000 and $79,000, market sentiment tended to calm down, and funds began to be carefully selected rather than blindly scattered. What is more worth tracking now is the linkage between Ethereum ETF inflows and the ETH/BTC exchange rate, whether SOL can sustain price momentum with continuous net inflows, and the faint institutional presence behind XRP. The relative strength of HYPE and the ecological structure of OKB also provide micro perspectives for observing fund preferences. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Is Kimi's $50 billion valuation expensive? The key is whether the ARR can support a multiple above 20x. Moon's Dark Side is sprinting towards the Hong Kong stock market with a Pre-IPO target valuation of about $50 billion. Based on the market value and ARR multiples of peers MiniMax and Zhipu, Kimi's required ARR threshold is about $1.212 billion to be below Zhipu's valuation multiple, and $2.5 billion to approach MiniMax's 20x multiple. However, since Kimi disclosed $300 million ARR in June, although the release of K3 has brought several times sales growth, the company has not yet announced the latest absolute value. According to Dongcha Beating AI news, Moon's Dark Side (Kimi) is rushing to list in Hong Kong, with the latest Pre-IPO round target valuation of about $50 billion. Whether this valuation is reasonable needs to be compared horizontally with domestic AI large model companies already listed. As of September 3, MiniMax's total market value is about $16 billion, with August ARR exceeding $800 million, corresponding to a valuation multiple of less than 20x; Zhipu's total market value is about $66 billion, with August ARR of $1.6 billion, corresponding to about 41.25x. If Kimi goes public with a $50 billion valuation, its ARR only needs to exceed about $1.212 billion for the valuation multiple to be lower than Zhipu's; if ARR reaches $2.5 billion, it corresponds to 20x ARR, close to MiniMax. The last time Kimi clearly disclosed ARR was mid-June at $300 million. After releasing the K3 model in July, President Zhang Yutong said the enterprise ARR had increased several times and set a historical record for the largest single... 🚨 Bitcoin Update ‼️ The next 12 days could determine BTC's next move 🚨
Everyone is wondering if Bitcoin can maintain its strength after the August rally.
Now, it's not just about the charts. Two major catalysts are very close, and both could bring volatility to Bitcoin.
Let me explain.
1️⃣ The first catalyst is the US jobs report
Tomorrow, September 4, the US will release August nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate data.
This is important because the Federal Reserve is closely watching the labor market.
Yesterday, ADP showed only 38,000 jobs added in August, weaker than expected.
Why does this matter for Bitcoin?
If tomorrow's jobs data is also weak, the market might expect the Fed to be less hawkish on interest rates.
This could put pressure on US Treasury yields and the dollar, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin.
But if the jobs data is significantly stronger than expected, rate hike expectations could rise again, and BTC might face selling pressure.
Therefore, September 4 could bring intense two-way volatility.
2️⃣ The second catalyst is the CLARITY Act
The CLARITY Act is becoming a key topic in the US crypto space, and September 15 is a date traders are watching.
The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote on that day.
Why is this important?
Markets usually start pricing in major events before they happen.
If traders expect positive progress, Bitcoin could continue to gain support as September 15 approaches.
This is what we call:
"Buy the rumor, sell the news."
If BTC keeps rising before the vote, then after the event, we should be ready for profit-taking or a pullback.
This doesn't mean the uptrend is over.
It just means volatility might increase.
So now we have two important dates:
📅 September 4 — US jobs report
📅 September 15 — CLARITY Act procedural vote
That's why the next 12 days are crucial for Bitcoin.
Are you ready? $BTC $ETH $SOL Event
Friday's nonfarm payroll data is coming up soon; this is the last key employment report before the September FOMC meeting.
Basis
The ADP employment data came out a few days ago, showing an increase of only 38,000 jobs, less than the expected 47,000, indicating employment is starting to weaken. Interestingly, the market still has a 62.3% probability priced in for the Fed to raise rates in September. Despite the weaker data, the rate hike expectations have not yet declined, showing significant divergence. We are just waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls to set the tone.
Viewpoint
The market is currently stuck at this contradiction.
If Friday's nonfarm payrolls continue to be weak, with two consecutive weak employment reports, the market will gradually become bearish on rate hikes, which would be short-term bullish for BTC;
Conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls are strong again, rate hike expectations will heat up again, and the market will likely face short-term pressure.
Simply put, the key focus this week is Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which will largely determine the market direction before the FOMC meeting. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $AVGO saw through the earnings report; the report is positive, but why did the price drop? $SNDK $BTC
All positives lost, the end of positives is negative!
Three progressive layers
Fact misalignment: past exceeded expectations, future guidance is below optimistic expectations. Price first reacts to new information (guidance downgrade), then corrects — market trades on marginal changes, not absolute good or bad.
Market psychology: instinctive panic triggers selling, rational correction hedges "this quarter's excess absolute value" against "next quarter's gap absolute value"; if covered, it is defined as a safety cushion rather than a crash. Volatility is a race between emotion and calculation speed.
In-depth deduction: total gap smaller than core excess inevitably leads to: non-core business deceleration, valuation not pricing traditional risks, management actively lowering expectations.
Dasheng's view: defined as "core strength but slope slowing"; next day's opening determines the market's final consensus. #FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm #Earnings observer: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance #Saudi crude oil exports fall to 9-year low, oil prices soar The U.S. aims to become the "Crypto Capital," but the market remains stagnant despite favorable legislation.
According to reports, Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated in a Fox Business interview that the CLARITY Act is expected to pass this month.
This act is expected to clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, providing clearer rules for trading platforms, token issuance, and institutional allocations.
In the long term, it can reduce regulatory risks in the industry.
However, funds are hesitating to enter the market, and short-term large holders are actually reducing risk.
Garrett Jin closed 276 BTC long positions, profiting $210,000, still holding about $123 million in positions, seemingly taking profits along the way.
The selling pressure on ETH is even more apparent.
An institution transferred 39,500 ETH to multiple exchanges in one day, worth about $95 million, indicating a possible sale.
The mysterious ShapeShift whale moved 2,759 ETH to a new address but did not send them to exchanges.
The current market contradiction is: policy expectations are improving, but funds remain cautious.
The CLARITY Act addresses long-term rules; whether $BTC can break through $80,000 depends on ETF flows, the macro environment, and spot buying.
Policy can open the door for institutional entry, but only sustained inflows of real capital can turn the positive outlook into a continuous rise.
#SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 Non-farm payroll data has not yet been released, but Bitcoin has already shown weakness, with the market revealing a tense feeling of paying "protection fees" in advance.
The latest JOLTS job openings remain at 7.3 million, indicating that the employment fundamentals have not collapsed; however, the previous non-farm report revised May and June data downward by a total of 103,000, which also shows that the labor market is far from strong. The data is stuck in the middle ground, and both bulls and bears dare not act rashly, only waiting quietly for Friday's "blind box" reveal.
The real risk lies in expectation mismatches: if the non-farm data unexpectedly comes in strong, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and market concerns about a September rate hike will be quickly ignited; even if the data weakens significantly, the first reaction of funds may not necessarily be to flow into the crypto market, but more likely to shift toward safe havens first. Therefore, the ideal scenario is not that worse employment is better, but a gradual cooling with moderate employment growth, no rebound in hourly wages, and no sharp drop in the unemployment rate.
After the data release, it is recommended to first observe changes in hourly wages, then verify whether previous values have been revised downward again, and finally assess whether BTC can effectively absorb the first wave of selling pressure. If it quickly recovers after a dip, it indicates real buying interest; if it continues to stay low, it is not advisable to hastily declare that the bearish pressure is over. On data night, there is no need to rush to chase the first candlestick; quick hands often lose to volatility. Risk warning: market data may be delayed and subject to revisions, price fluctuations are intense, please control your positions rationally. $BTCThe deeper you play, the clearer it becomes: K-lines are just appearances, while on-chain data is the underlying color.
This morning, I glanced at several core on-chain data points and roughly got a sense:
$BTC exchange net flow turned negative, with outflows exceeding inflows in the past 48 hours. More importantly, Bitcoin addresses dormant for over a year have started moving, but not sending to exchanges; instead, they are transferring between wallets—most likely institutions are rotating holdings or migrating custody, not a sign of selling. Miner holding index remains stable at a low level, indicating little selling pressure.
Active address count has dropped noticeably, with the 7-day average down nearly 15% from the previous high, and on-chain transaction volume is shrinking. This suggests retail enthusiasm is waning, and the market currently lacks new stories or emotional triggers. Looking at the options market, short-term implied volatility is suppressed at a low level; big money is not pricing in a violent breakout.
So the current situation: to the downside, the liquidation map shows dense long liquidations below 56000, which is far away and unlikely to be touched in the short term; to the upside, massive sell orders are stacked between 59000-60000, and without new catalysts, it’s hard to clear them all at once. Both bulls and bears are waiting; whoever moves first will be passive.
Most likely, it will form a converging triangle, with volatility narrowing, waiting for a macro or news event to trigger a breakout.
Hold your spot positions and don’t move recklessly—liquidity leaders like $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB have solid on-chain fundamentals. Try to clear leveraged positions, especially near the end of a consolidation with frequent false breakouts, as stop-loss hunting back and forth is exhausting.
The above is just my personal market notes and does not constitute any investment advice; just be responsible for your own money.Japanese listed companies have sold off all altcoins, keeping only Bitcoin $BTC. Tokyo-listed Remixpoint has liquidated ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, cashing out $5.5 million and making a profit of $740,000. Now the treasury holds only 1,506 BTC. The last bull market emphasized diversified allocation; this time, the focus has shifted to concentrating bets on Bitcoin. The logic behind corporate coin hoarding is changing, and the "digital gold" narrative is back.$SOL Japanese company Remixpoint has cleared out ETH SOL XRP DOGE
Leaving only about fifteen hundred BTC on the books
It's like the board meeting ended with a direct show of hands
Voting for Satoshi Nakamoto
Not for smart contracts, and they even made a small profit that day
About 110 million yen
$ETH SOL XRP were all sold for profit
Only DOGE was sold at a loss
Dogecoin really remains the least favored in the treasury On the same day, other companies were still adding to Bitcoin
Smarter Web bought another thirty-five
DDC raised its holdings to over two thousand eight hundred in the first half of the year
While some emptied their baskets
Others kept piling gold into the treasury This is interesting
Public companies are finally starting to argue like coin holders
BTC is digital gold
ETH is a tech stock with Beta
Can be staked to earn interest
When the market turns bad, it's also the first to be liquidated The company treasury, should it hold ETH or not?
On one hand, earning interest looks smart
On the other, its volatility and poor financial reports make it the first to be disliked by the board
Is Remixpoint's move forward-looking
Or just an awkward style shift near the peak?
No one can say for sure now, but they spoke very frankly
Crypto treasury is not a basket of coins
It's a Bitcoin religion
The board voted
They voted for Satoshi Nakamoto
Not for smart contracts
$BTC Thị trường Crypto bước vào sáng 03/09 trong trạng thái thận trọng nhưng chưa mất cấu trúc hoàn toàn. $BTC vẫn dao động quanh vùng $77K sau khi chịu áp lực từ mốc $80K, trong khi $ETH, $SOL, $XRP và nhiều Altcoin tiếp tục phân hóa. Điểm đáng chú ý nhất lúc này không nằm ở một cây nến tăng hay giảm trong vài giờ, mà nằm ở sự thay đổi rất nhanh của kỳ vọng chính sách tiền tệ Mỹ. Thị trường hiện đang đồng thời theo dõi 3 biến số: Fed → dữ liệu việc làm → dầu và lạm phát. Khi ba yếu tố này cùng xuất Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in August dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level in at least 9 years. Tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, Vortexa, and Kpler all point to this figure. The direct cause is the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and the Houthis imposing blockades on Saudi vessels. Previously, Saudi Arabia relied on the East-West pipeline to export oil through the Red Sea's Yanbu port, reaching over 4 million barrels at one point. Now even this route is impacted, causing a significant overall decline in shipments. Oil prices reacted immediately, with Brent crude climbing back above $95, hitting a new high since late July. The market is beginning to reprice inflation and interest rate trajectories. Crypto traders should watch this: as oil prices rise, inflation expectations increase, the Federal Reserve's rate cut space is squeezed, and risk asset sentiment is likely to take a hit first.
$BTC and $ETH are sensitive to macro liquidity; if this kind of hard inflation source from oil prices persists, the funding environment will become more cautious. In the short term, it depends on whether other oil-producing countries can fill the supply gap and whether geopolitical tensions escalate further. The data is clear: low exports plus rising oil prices indicate a hardening macro environment. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Are Goldman Sachs and Citibank also coming to snatch jobs in the crypto space? 😅
#21 financial institutions plan to launch a US dollar stablecoin
This lineup is indeed quite significant. 21 financial institutions including Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and Fidelity plan to establish a new company in the second half of this year, aiming to launch a US dollar stablecoin by the first half of 2027 for cross-border payments and digital asset settlements. Note, this is still at the planning stage and the stablecoin has not been issued yet.
What I find most interesting about this is that they don’t have to start from scratch to find customers.
If a company already has an account with Citibank and does cross-border settlements, the bank can directly integrate stablecoin payments into the existing business, so the company might not even need to learn how to use exchanges first. If they can really achieve this, that’s where the banks’ strength lies.
But getting crypto players to swap out their USDT and USDC is another matter. If the trading venues, transfer convenience, and redemption processes don’t keep up, no matter how famous the name is, it won’t help.
So my judgment is that bank-backed stablecoins are more likely to first compete for corporate payment and institutional settlement clients, and in the short term, they won’t be able to push USDT out. Increased competition doesn’t necessarily mean existing stablecoins will lose their peg.
Don’t rush to call this a bullish sign for BTC either. If companies switch to stablecoins to pay for goods, that money might just circle back and be converted to dollars, not necessarily leading to buying crypto.
Banks want to make money from payments and settlements, while we hope for price increases. These two things really can’t be automatically equated.凌晨三点，我盯着屏幕，BTC 和 ETH 的K线像两条安静呼吸的鲸鱼，而山寨们的影子在它们身后拉得越来越长。 你有没有想过，当所有人都在等同一个信号时，市场往往先给出一个所有人都没在看的答案？ 我最近不太爱看新闻标题了。新闻总是慢半拍的，真正快的是持仓变化和资金费率。那些藏在合约数据里的细微信号，比任何一条推特都诚实。我观察到 BTC 在横盘区间里反复试探，但每一次下探的深度都在变浅，这说明卖压在衰竭，而不是买盘在爆发——这两种状态，市场情绪的温度完全不同。 ETH 这边有意思多了。价格没怎么动，但永续合约的持仓量悄悄爬升，资金费率从负转平。这个位置如果出现一根放量阳线，空头回补的力道会像拧紧的发条突然松开。市场情绪有时候不是看谁喊得大声，而是看谁憋得最久。 - 看多路径：BTC 稳住区间下沿，ETH 开始带动生态叙事，资金会先流向 Beta 最高的主流，再扩散到 DeFi 和基础设施 - 看空风险：如果 BTC 跌破区间且 ETH 同步走弱，衍生品市场会先出现一轮多空双杀，情绪修复需要更长时间 我真正在意的是那个没人谈论的角落。上轮周期里，每次大行情启动前，总有一个板块在主流币的阴影LPs on Robinhood Chain, are they more profitable than chasing memes now?
Robinhood Chain has been live for two months, originally intended for tokenized stocks, but CASHCAT, PONS, and AI have pushed the market cap to around 100-200 million.
One address turned 220,000 principal into 4.7 million, profiting from two waves. PONS uses platform fees from token issuance to buy back and burn tokens; on August 30 alone, the protocol income was close to one million dollars.
Retail investors continuing PvP aren’t having it so easy, with about a 40% win rate and high Gas fees; a single floating profit might be eaten up by fees and failed transactions.
Smart money is changing tactics, no longer betting on the next 10x coin, but collecting toll fees from popular pools. High-fee pools like AI/WETH can reach daily APRs in the four digits.
Some set an 8% fee directly on new coin pools, with daily APRs over 2000%. Even stranger, AI pools with tokenized NVDA combine stocks and memes, locking about 17% of high-liquidity stock tokens in such pairs.
I think LPs are not earning stable interest this round, but meme turnover taxes. Pools are shallow, impermanent loss is large, and once the hype fades, fees drop immediately.
Going forward, either stock-meme pairs become a feature of this chain, or with reduced Gas and incentives, APRs will revert to normal.
Whether it can sustain depends on whether Robinhood’s own users truly come to trade, rather than just on-chain degens taxing each other.
DYOR BTC falls below $77,000, September market enters a critical observation period
At the start of September, $BTC continued its pullback, recently dropping below $77,000. In August, BTC rose about 25%, but after entering September, the market has clearly cooled down. Meanwhile, $ETH is currently around $2,400, with mainstream coins overall under pressure.
There are two signals worth noting in this round of pullback.
First, ETF funds are starting to weaken.
On September 1, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $236.5 million, with BlackRock IBIT outflowing about $201.2 million. Compared to the strong inflow of over $3 billion in August, there is a clear change in funds at the beginning of September.
Second, the Federal Reserve's expectations remain hawkish.
Currently, the market's expectation for a September rate hike is still around 66%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield recently approached 4.8%. If oil prices and inflation continue to stay high, risk assets may still face short-term pressure. From a technical perspective, I believe $77,000 is an important short-term observation level. If BTC can quickly reclaim $80,000, it indicates this drop may just be a normal correction after the rise; if it continues to fall below $77,000, caution is needed for further downward support seeking.
Key focuses going forward: ETF fund flows, US employment data, US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can firmly stand above $80,000 again.
The biggest opportunity in the market now is not guessing ups and downs, but waiting for funds to give direction.
$BTC $ETH $BNBOil surges to 90, gold rises to 4434, BTC only up 0.5%: Digital gold once again fails to keep up
Looking at today's market data together, it's quite disheartening.
WTI crude oil remains above $90, gold hits 4434, up 1.27% intraday; $BTC only rises about 0.49% near 77634, $ETH up 0.61% near 2404.
Every time geopolitical tensions rise, someone shouts "digital gold should perform now." But this time, the market first bought physical gold, and BTC just caught a breather.
The reason is not complicated. When oil prices rise, the market's first reaction is not risk aversion, but whether inflation will return and if interest rates will be harder to cut. Gold benefits from risk aversion and credit anxiety; BTC still carries the label of a high-volatility risk asset, so when interest rate expectations tighten, it gets suppressed first.
So I’m not chasing BTC just because oil prices are rising.
BTC needs to reclaim the intraday high of 77876 today to show that there is capital willing to continue buying; if it can’t, the support at 76204 still needs to be defended. Same for ETH, if 2429 is not reclaimed, don’t rush to treat 2400 as a sign of strength.
The phrase "digital gold" is shouted by everyone when the market is good. The real test is when oil prices, interest rates, and risk appetite all clash simultaneously—can it really rise?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $SOL vs $HYPE, comparison of two popular high-volatility assets
Latest data
$SOL current price 100.35, public chain ecosystem remains active, DEX trading volume stays high; HYPE current price 79.4, derivative chain trading revenue continues to hit new highs. Market cap $BTC 77637.
Market consensus
Bullish on SOL: leading high-performance public chain, supported by DeFi and Meme ecosystems, strong bull market elasticity, inflation reduction proposal further improves token model; cautious views note occasional network congestion, large pullbacks during market downturns.
Bullish on HYPE: dark horse in on-chain order book derivatives sector, protocol has real fee income, token captures revenue; cautious views highlight intense competition in the sector, trading volume decline after hype fades will directly impact valuation.
Underlying logic analysis
SOL is a base asset of the public chain, profiting from ecosystem growth, price highly dependent on on-chain users and overall crypto market sentiment; HYPE belongs to vertical trading sector, profits come from real trading fees, more sensitive to contract trading market conditions. Both are high-volatility assets prone to large swings during market fluctuations.
Personal view (personal preference for a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Optimistic about sector logic but not suitable for chasing highs. SOL is suitable as a base holding in public chain to play ecosystem dividends; HYPE requires continuous monitoring of trading volume data, consider buying on pullbacks, avoid heavy positions at highs. Only one last piece of the puzzle remains before the September FOMC.
August ADP private employment increased by only 38,000, below the expected 47,000, marking the slowest growth since January. The Beige Book also reported that 10 out of 12 districts showed only moderate growth, with employment growth slowing down.
However, the market still prices in a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September. On the inflation front, core PCE has stuck at 3.3% for two consecutive months, with 54% of the 178 PCE components showing year-over-year increases above 3%, compared to 47% a year ago — the breadth of price increases is expanding, not narrowing.
This Friday at 8:30 PM, the August nonfarm payrolls report will be the final piece before the FOMC. The market expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. July’s nonfarm payrolls were down by 23,000; whether August can recover will determine if the September rate hike is "a done deal" or "up for reconsideration."
Regarding Bitcoin $BTC, the 77,000-78,000 range is waiting for the nonfarm payrolls data. The fact that the rate hike probability is held above 60% itself represents a short-term ceiling. The verdict will be revealed Friday night. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $AVGO Broadcom's Q3 earnings report missed expectations and plunged 4.5%. It then violently rebounded during the 5 PM earnings call. The main reasons are as follows.
On the surface, the earnings numbers fell short of expectations, causing a sell-off after hours; however, the call provided a more critical long-term anchor: AI networking/custom acceleration and experience-related businesses showed significant growth, with QAI revenue reaching $21.7 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, and the full-year AI-related revenue growth was also revised upward. Management set AI semiconductor revenue targets for 2027 and 2028 at approximately $115 billion and $230 billion respectively, more aggressive than the previous conservative "$100 billion+" guidance, prompting the market to immediately reprice.
In short, Broadcom is now trading not just on single-quarter gross margin/order momentum, but on its position in the AI infrastructure chain: ASIC customization, switching/networking, and VMware software collaboration all benefit from cloud providers' capital expenditures. Short-term earnings expectations caused volatility, but the long-term guidance brought sentiment back.
For related assets, AVGO stabilizing is favorable for AI computing power chain risk appetite, but the crypto side does not map directly linearly; it still depends on BTC/ETH market liquidity and Nasdaq futures. For individual stocks/related contracts, be cautious about heavy positions before volatility settles after earnings.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Oil surges to 90, gold rises to 4434, BTC only up 0.5%: Digital gold once again fails to keep up
Looking at today's market data together, it's quite disheartening.
WTI crude oil remains above $90, gold hits 4434, up 1.27% intraday; $BTC only rises about 0.49% near 77634, $ETH up 0.61% near 2404.
Every time geopolitical tensions rise, someone shouts "digital gold should perform now." But this time, the market first bought physical gold, and BTC just caught a breather.
The reason is not complicated. When oil prices rise, the market's first reaction is not risk aversion, but whether inflation will return and if interest rates will be harder to cut. Gold benefits from risk aversion and credit anxiety; BTC still carries the label of a high-volatility risk asset, so when interest rate expectations tighten, it gets suppressed first.
So I’m not chasing BTC just because oil prices are rising.
BTC needs to reclaim the intraday high of 77876 today to show that there is capital willing to continue buying; if it can’t, the support at 76204 still needs to be defended. Same for ETH, if 2429 is not reclaimed, don’t rush to treat 2400 as a sign of strength.
The phrase "digital gold" is shouted by everyone when the market is good. The real test is when oil prices, interest rates, and risk appetite all clash simultaneously—can it really rise?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $USELESS The brothers in the group told me the platform took action, freezing the accounts manipulating funds. Brothers, once we profit, we withdraw; also, do not short, protect the profits, and prepare for the next coin [Crypto Script]
#FOMC last data set before the meeting: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
I'm Script Bro, the last piece of the employment puzzle before the FOMC is out, and the market is now conflicted again—what matters more, inflation or employment?
Recent data basically shows that U.S. employment is cooling down. ADP new jobs are significantly below expectations, and the Beige Book also shows hiring slowing in most regions, indicating that the impact of high interest rates on the economy is gradually showing.
But on the other hand, inflation hasn't fully surrendered; core PCE remains above the Fed's target. So the market is very conflicted now—on one side, weaker employment suggests the Fed should start cutting rates, on the other side, concerns that inflation hasn't come down and the Fed's hawkish stance make the market cautious.
For BTC, the key now is the Nonfarm Payrolls. If employment continues to weaken, rate cut expectations will rise, putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting risk assets including BTC. But if Nonfarm Payrolls show strength again, the market may trade "higher rates for longer" again, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
Script Bro thinks the market is waiting for the last card. Employment is starting to loosen, but inflation is still holding strong. How the September FOMC moves may be decided by the Nonfarm Payrolls.
Do you think Nonfarm Payrolls will boost rate cut expectations or cool the market again? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SOL Short-term bearish bias, mid-term policy game catalysts for $BTC
Global bond yields soar to 2008 crisis levels — the core macro downside
Impact path: Bond yields surge → risk-free rates rise → risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) face valuation pressure → funds withdraw from high-risk assets like ETH
Transmission logic: This is a systemic suppression of the pricing model for all risk assets. ETH, as a high-beta crypto asset, is far more sensitive to liquidity tightening than traditional stocks. Institutions reduce holdings of high-volatility assets first when yields are shocked.
Price impact assessment: Direct downward pressure, currently around $2,402 lacks macro buying support.
Timeliness: Continuous pressure expected over the next 24-72 hours, this is the core contradiction the market is currently digesting.
Polymarket CLARITY Act 15% probability: Indicates extremely low market confidence in significant short-term policy benefits, lacking core catalysts for new capital inflow.
SEC Chair’s high-profile statements vs. low probability in prediction markets: There is a clear expectation split. If the SEC can mobilize administrative resources to push the agenda, prediction markets may be underestimating the probability of passage. But there is also a possibility—the SEC Chair’s statements are "expectation management" aimed at calming the market.
After $369M liquidation: Leverage has been partially cleaned up, market structure is healthier than before the liquidation, further sharp declines require new macro catalysts.The current market is influenced by two conflicting narratives. The aftereffects of the hawkish speeches by Fed officials have not faded; the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September is 58%, and the two-year US Treasury yield remains high, with elevated interest rates suppressing risk assets. This week's ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will directly reshape rate hike expectations and are the biggest short-term variables.
Tensions in the Middle East continue, with Brent crude oil returning to $90. Rising oil prices push inflation higher, putting pressure on the market, but geopolitical turmoil strengthens BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset. The opposing forces cancel each other out, resulting in a market that neither rises significantly nor falls deeply.
US stocks closed lower intraday but ended August with a monthly gain; tech stocks show clear divergence. The medium- to long-term benefits of Charles Schwab opening up currency options remain, but they no longer stimulate short-term surges. Now, it is more about capital competition within the market.
My judgment: The medium-term major trend remains intact, but the market rhythm has shifted, with consolidation becoming the main theme. Volatility will remain high before the Nonfarm Payrolls release; leverage must be strictly controlled to manage risk, and patience is required to wait for clear signals from key data. $BTC $ETH $USELESS Quickly short it secretly! OKEx official is preparing to restrict withdrawals for large users of this coin$SOL dropped more than 3% today, once again approaching the $100 mark.
The logic behind this decline is actually quite clear: rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields have reignited market concerns about inflation and interest rates, prompting capital to reduce risk as a first reaction.
BTC is relatively resilient, but high-beta assets like SOL, $ETH, and $DOGE are clearly under pressure, with profit-taking combined with leveraged liquidations naturally concentrating selling pressure.
So, I don't currently believe there is a problem with the Solana ecosystem itself; it seems more like a risk release triggered by macroeconomic disturbances.
SOL itself is a double-edged sword. When market sentiment is good, on-chain liquidity and Meme popularity heat up, and it often rises the fastest; but once risk appetite declines, the speed of capital withdrawal is equally rapid.
The key now is to see if the $100 level can hold.
If it stabilizes on low volume, we can continue to observe; if it breaks down on high volume, don't rush to catch the falling knife.
My approach is still to wait for macro disturbances to subside before looking for more comfortable opportunities to add positions.
In a volatile market, preserving principal is always more important than chasing a rebound. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 One earnings night, two very different verdicts on the AI trade.
Broadcom beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, with revenue up 86% to $29.6B and AI semiconductor sales more than tripling to $16.7B. But its $34.8B Q4 revenue guide landed roughly in line with Street expectations, and shares briefly fell more than 6% in early after-hours trading before paring most of the decline.
The irony: Broadcom still expects Q4 AI semiconductor revenue of $21.7B, up 236% and equal to roughly 62% of total guidance. Management also expects AI revenue of about $115B in FY27 and $230B in FY28.
Snowflake told the opposite story. Product revenue rose 37% to $1.49B, marking a third straight quarter of accelerating growth. Full-year product revenue guidance increased to $6.07B, and shares jumped more than 21% after hours.
· CoCo reached 9,100 accounts, adding 2,000+ this quarter
· CoWork expanded to 5,800 accounts, up nearly 11% sequentially
· Remaining performance obligations rose 30% to $9B
· Non-GAAP operating margin guidance increased from 13.5% to 14.5%, showing improving operating leverage
Add Dell's results from the prior night: it booked $60.9B in AI server orders, raised its AI server revenue outlook from $60B to $74B, and exited the quarter with a $95B backlog.
The pattern is clear: AI demand is spreading from chips to servers, data cloud and software. But AI exposure alone may no longer be enough. The market is increasingly rewarding acceleration against already-high expectations.
Beat without enough upside, and a stock can still sell off. Beat and raise, and the market may reprice.
Crypto markets know the same tension: a narrative can weaken before growth disappears, simply because the pace starts slowing.
What matters more for AI stocks now: absolute growth or the pace of acceleration?
#AVGODipsSNOWPops $xAVGO $xSNOW $xDELL AI demand is spreading from chips to software, with Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings reports each surpassing the last. Snowflake surged 21% after hours, with product revenue up 37% year-over-year, and the number of accounts using the AI-assisted coding tool CoCo reaching 9,100, indicating that AI applications in enterprises are shifting from trial to regular productivity tools.
Broadcom's performance was even more explosive, with Q3 revenue hitting $29.5 billion, exceeding expectations. AI semiconductors contributed $16.7 billion, and the CEO boldly predicted AI chip revenue could reach $115 billion in fiscal 2027, a figure that further raised market expectations for AI computing power. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance was slightly below analyst forecasts, causing the stock to drop as much as 6% after hours before narrowing losses.
Dell also rose 7%, with AI server orders continuing to accumulate. The entire AI chain—from chips to servers to software and cloud data—is being driven by demand, but the market's expectations for delivery speed are also increasing. Broadcom's Q4 guidance falling short is a signal that when expectations are set too high, even a slight miss can lead to a sell-off.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$DELL $SNOW 📈🛫 Let me start with the conclusion: I'm bearish!
Why? Because regardless of how the non-farm payroll data turns out this Friday, the rate hike blade hasn't landed yet.
ADP is only 38,000, the Beige Book reports moderate growth in 10 districts, the data is indeed cooling down. But the rate hike probability is still stuck at 62%, core PCE is stuck at 3.3%, and more than half of the 178 sub-items are still rising, meaning the inflation breadth is expanding. Oil prices remain high, and long-term interest rates won't come down. Wash has already locked in the inflation target; he's focused on inflation, not employment. Even if the data is bad, he can still say "inflation is still at 3.3%, we need to keep observing."
Non-farm payroll expectations are an increase of 58,000 to 80,000, with the previous value at -23,000. If it's below 50,000, the rate hike probability will fall, and BTC might bounce in the short term, but after the bounce, it will likely be pressured back by macro expectations. If it's above 80,000, the rate hike probability will continue to rise, and BTC will be directly pressured. No matter which way it goes, as long as US Treasury yields keep rising and rate hike expectations haven't fully faded, BTC will find it hard to truly stabilize. So I'm bearish. What do you think? Feel free to share with Xiaomeng, see you in the comments! $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 @OKX星球 A particularly face-slapping scene for the "digital gold" narrative tonight: Shanghai gold rose 2% in one day, silver rose over 1%, crude oil climbed back above $90 — solid anti-inflation assets all strengthening together; meanwhile, $BTC is wilting almost motionless. Everyone says Bitcoin is digital gold, but whenever real inflation hits and oil prices reignite rate hike expectations, the funds vote with their feet for real gold and silver, not it. The reason is easy to understand — during a rate hike cycle, risk assets that generate no cash flow and have high volatility get drained first. Stop labeling crypto as "safe haven"; its current identity is a high-volatility risk asset, living at the mercy of liquidity. Do you think it can still retell the safe haven story this round?This coin currently carries a very high risk, and its holding value mainly depends on what type of investor you are.**
**Current fundamentals (as of the end of August 2026):**
- Price is about **$0.025-0.026**, down over **99%** from the all-time high of $6.47
- Market cap is about **$32 million**, ranking outside the top 500 in the crypto market
- 24-hour trading volume is only at the **$100,000 to $1 million** level, with very poor liquidity
**Key risk points to pay special attention to:**
1. **Recent security incident:** In early September, Core DAO experienced a validator reward vulnerability, where a few nodes excessively minted tokens. The project initiated an emergency hard fork to fix this, and several exchanges temporarily suspended CORE deposits and withdrawals. Although the official statement assures user asset safety, the total amount of excess minting has not been disclosed, creating supply uncertainty in the market.
2. **Long-term selling pressure on tokens:** Currently, only about 51-60% of tokens are circulating. Team, private sale, and early mining tokens are still unlocking in batches, which will continue to suppress the price.
3. **Highly dependent on Bitcoin market trends:** CORE has a correlation of 0.88 with Bitcoin’s price movement. If Bitcoin enters a bear market, CORE’s decline will be even greater.
4. **Intense competition:** In the BTCFi sector, competitors like Stacks, Babylon, and Rootstock exist. Core lags behind leading projects in terms of locked value and ecosystem activity.
**However, there are some positive factors:**
- The project is shifting from mining subsidies to a "real revenue buyback and burn" model. If products like SatPay and AMP succeed, theoretically a deflationary loop can be formed.
- Bitcoin staking ETP has been listed on the London Stock Exchange, opening some compliant channels.
- Mining output will be reduced by 17% in 2026, tightening supply.
**My advice to you:**
- If you bought just following the trend and your position is small, considering poor liquidity, heavy selling pressure, and recent security incidents, **the cost-effectiveness of continuing to hold is indeed low**. Gradually reducing your position during rebounds might be a safer choice.
- If your position is large, it’s not recommended to cut losses all at once. You can reduce your position in batches to keep risk within a tolerable range.
- If you are a long-term bullish investor in the BTCFi sector and willing to take high risks, you can keep a small position to observe, but do not increase your holdings.
**One last reminder:** Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and small-cap coins like CORE carry a non-negligible risk of going to zero. The above is just an objective summary of information and does not constitute investment advice. The final decision should be based on your own risk tolerance. What proportion of your total assets does your current Core position roughly represent? This information will affect the specific advice I give you. Bitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection
⚠️ The following is based solely on public institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving was completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market rally window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is highly likely to be the peak period of this cycle.
However, the market is now institutionalized (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), so the bull market gains will be diminished compared to the previous two cycles and will not replicate the several-fold rapid surge seen in 2021.
Three scenario projections (top prices for this bull market cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): The bull market is a weak rebound, no super bull market.
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Fed rate cuts, long-term high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued strict US crypto regulation, large continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, all risk assets collectively devalued;
4. Institutional allocation willingness below expectations, mainly retail speculation.
Characteristics: Only new highs without huge bubbles, quickly entering a bear market after the peak, with pullbacks still reaching 50-65%.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream institutional consensus, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $180,000 - $260,000
Representative institutions: Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy, JPMorgan baseline assumptions.
Conditions to be met simultaneously:
1. Fed initiates substantial rate cuts, weakening the US dollar;
2. US spot ETFs maintain stable monthly net inflows, pensions and family offices continue small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation is implemented, uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders’ positions remain solid, exchange inventories continue to decline.
Historical comparison: 2021 bull market peak was $69,000; the neutral scenario corresponds to 2.5-3.7 times the previous peak for this cycle; institutions generally believe institutional capital entry will raise the floor but compress the bubble phase’s crazy gains, making tens of times explosive growth unlikely.
③ Optimistic Scenario (super cycle/strong bubble, 25% probability)
Top: $300,000 - $420,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met:
1. Sovereign states/large sovereign funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, large-scale corporate Bitcoin inclusion on balance sheets;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, triggering "digital gold" asset revaluation;
4. No major black swans, extremely loose liquidity.
ARK’s Cathie Wood’s extreme optimistic model projects $500,000+, which is a low-probability ideal scenario and should not be considered expected returns.
❌ Extremely optimistic million-dollar target
Many KOLs promote BTC to $1 million, which is a very long-term super cycle fantasy, not a prediction for the 2026-2027 bull market, and likely requires crossing 2-3 halving cycles; it is almost impossible to achieve in this cycle.
Important changes in historical cycles (why previous gains cannot be simply copied)
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, pure retail, very small market size;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 this cycle: large institutional capital entry, huge market size, overall multiples further compressed, do not expect to replicate early tens-of-times wealth gains.
History: Average 530 days from halving to peak, but in the institutional era cycles can lengthen, bull market duration may extend, and corrections will deepen; it is not a straight line up, with intermediate 30-45% medium corrections.
Four core observation indicators determining this bull market ceiling (more useful than price predictions):
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflow scale: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the funding cornerstone for bull market continuation; continuous large outflows for multiple months will lower bull market height.
2. Fed real interest rates: rate declines benefit BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes directly shatter the bull market.
3. On-chain data: exchange BTC inventory changes; continuous inventory decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous inventory increase indicates whales selling.
4. Regulation: US regulation is the biggest variable; positive regulation opens imagination space; crackdowns directly end the bull market.
Realistic risks (bull market is not guaranteed):
1. Cycle failure risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing a "prolonged oscillating bull market," or even complete halving effect failure, resulting in long-term range-bound trading;
2. Even if the bull market comes, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur after the peak;
3. Do not treat "bull market reaching XX price" as certain; predictions are just scenario simulations, black swans can rewrite all logic at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $180,000-$260,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $300,000-$420,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market is not a straight rise; there will be large corrections in between. All predictions are based on a series of assumptions about macroeconomics, capital, and regulation.Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real driver for SanDisk.
Don't be fooled by the candlestick charts; every time there's a pre-non-farm rally, it's just handing the bears a gift.
The small non-farm already crashed, so how good can the big non-farm be?
Last month's July non-farm was a cold surprise, and the storage sector became the "only hard-hit area."
Funds massively shifted from the storage sector to optical communications, and institutions collectively lowered their target prices accordingly.
Jefferies cut from 3000 to 1750, Citigroup from 2500 to 2100.
$SNDK plunged 7% that day, and the reason is summed up in four words: expectations were too high.
The same script will play out again this Friday.
The small non-farm at 38,000 is the lowest this year.
August non-farm is expected to increase by 58,000, but July's previous value was sharply revised down; who can guarantee it won't crash again?
If it crashes again and the unemployment rate breaks 4.3%, tech stocks will instantly switch from "rate cut celebration" to "recession sell-off."
The probability of a rate hike is already 57%, and storage stocks like SanDisk, which rely on liquidity to support valuation, will be the first to get hit.
SanDisk's current trend is exactly the same as before the July non-farm.
High-level sideways movement, shrinking volume oscillation, waiting for the data to stab a knife.
Short position returns have already reached 23.64%; just hold this position and wait for Friday's data release, no need to do anything, just relax.
Every pre-non-farm rally by the manipulative bulls is just handing bears a red envelope.
Keep holding the short positions, wait for Friday.
$BTC
$ETH
#FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's non-farm
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance Many people think that once "Kong Shen" closes a short position, he should stop, but I shorted again in the evening. Some immediately commented "face slap"—wrong. The few hours of being out of the market wasn't admitting defeat, it was waiting for the right cards: the daily bullish structure hasn't broken, so I won't short halfway down the mountain naked. When global central banks turn hawkish in unison, and oil prices climb back above $90 to ignite inflation expectations, when all the cards come together, only then will I push my chips out. I've shorted both $BTC and $ETH, with stop losses set at the point where the structure fails—not faith, but discipline. Low-frequency big bets mean: mostly staying out of the market, and when you do act, it must be the card you've waited a long time for. How about you, how many times did your hands itch today? The tug-of-war between the US stock market rebound and macroeconomic headwinds
On September 2nd Eastern Time, the three major US stock indices collectively rebounded and closed higher (Dow up 0.56%, Nasdaq up 0.45%, S&P 500 up 0.46%), with tech stocks and AI chip sectors (such as Nvidia, Dell Technologies) performing strongly. However, ETH did not fully follow the US stock rally; instead, it fell below the $2400 mark in early September, fluctuating between $2360 and $2400.
This trend is mainly suppressed by macroeconomic headwinds: the market's expectation probability for a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 62.3%, and the rate hike expectation will tighten market liquidity, directly weighing on risk assets like ETH. Additionally, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (such as the US-Iran conflict) has also increased market risk aversion, leading to capital outflows from risk assets $ETH $BTC $BTC The last set of data before the FOMC: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
After the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, this Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will be the most important employment check before the September FOMC decision. The market's rate hike expectations have already been fully priced in, and this report will directly disrupt the subsequent interest rate game. Earlier ADP employment data showed a clear weakening, but wage stickiness remains. The overall employment market is showing a split state, without a clear one-sided signal.
If Nonfarm Payrolls and wages again exceed expectations strongly, it will further solidify the trading logic for a September rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, suppressing valuations of global risk assets. If employment falls significantly short of expectations, it will quickly dampen rate hike bets, and growth stocks, gold, and crypto assets are expected to see short-term recovery.
It is important to note that inflation remains the Federal Reserve's primary consideration. Even if Nonfarm Payrolls weaken, the option of rate hikes cannot be completely ruled out. Subsequent CPI data will be the ultimate judge. At this stage, market volatility is rising, so it is not suitable to heavily bet on a direction in advance. Waiting for the data to land before responding will be more prudent.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Bitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection (2026-2027 Cycle)
⚠️ The following is based on publicly available overseas institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews, and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving will be completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main upward window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is the peak period for this cycle.
However, with the current market institutionalization (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), the overall bull market gains will be significantly reduced compared to the previous two cycles, making it difficult to replicate the early explosive multi-fold increases.
Three scenarios (top prices for this cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability, weak bull market)
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Federal Reserve rate cuts, high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued tightening of US crypto regulations, continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, all risk assets undergo valuation cuts;
Characteristics: Only slight new highs, limited bubble; after the peak, a pullback of 50-65% is still possible.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream consensus among overseas investment banks, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $150,000 - $240,000
Bernstein, Standard Chartered, and Galaxy baseline models converge in this range.
Required conditions:
1. Substantial Federal Reserve rate cuts, US dollar liquidity easing;
2. Stable monthly net inflows in US spot ETFs, pensions and family offices maintain small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation implemented, policy uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term holders’ positions remain solid, exchange BTC inventories continue to decline.
Compared to the previous peak of $69,000, the neutral scenario is 2-3.5 times that peak. Institutional capital entry raises the floor but compresses the bubble’s crazy gains.
③ Optimistic Scenario (strong bubble super cycle, 25% probability)
Top: $280,000 - $380,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met simultaneously:
1. Sovereign states and sovereign wealth funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, many listed companies record BTC on their balance sheets;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, digital gold assets revalued;
4. No major black swan events, global liquidity extremely loose.
Cathie Wood’s $500,000+ target is an extreme ideal model and not the baseline expectation for the 2026-2027 cycle.
❌ The widely circulated "this cycle will reach $1 million" is a long-term fantasy, requiring 2-3 halving cycles and is unlikely by 2027.
Why historical gains cannot be directly copied:
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, very small market, purely retail-driven;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, mainly Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 cycle: dominated by large institutional capital, huge market cap, multiples will be further compressed.
Even if the bull market arrives, it will not be a straight upward trend; intermediate corrections of 30-45% are expected.
Four observation indicators more important than price predictions:
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflows: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the cornerstone of bull market funds; large outflows for consecutive months require lowering bull market expectations.
2. Federal Reserve real interest rates: rate declines favor BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes suppress the market.
3. On-chain exchange inventories: continuous decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous increase indicates whales selling.
4. US crypto regulation: clear policies open imagination; strong crackdowns can directly end the bull market.
Risks not to be ignored:
1. Cycle dulling risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing prolonged wide-range oscillations, lengthening the bull market, or weakening the halving effect, resulting in no major bull market.
2. Even if the bull market peaks successfully, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur afterward.
3. All predictions are based on a series of external assumptions; geopolitical events and black swans can overturn all projections at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $150,000-$240,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $280,000-$380,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market will not be a straight climb; there will be significant corrections, and all prices are just scenario simulations.An explosion occurred over Kuwait.💥
In the early hours of September 2, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard simultaneously launched missile and drone attacks on military bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Erbil in Iraq, all hosting US troops. Kuwait's air defense system was fully activated, and the military stated, "Any explosion sounds are the air defense system intercepting enemy targets," with air raid alarms sounding across the entire territory.
This is a direct retaliation for the US airstrike on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities on Larak Island on August 30. The cycle of retaliation has begun—US forces bombed Iran, Iran responded with missiles, and the US Central Command immediately announced the completion of a new round of strikes.
🚨 Oil prices exploded first. WTI crude oil surged 5.2% to above $90, Brent rose 4.6% to close at $94.65. Kuwait is a major OPEC oil producer and a core US military logistics hub in the Middle East; this time, Iran has effectively reached into the airspace of a US ally.
For BTC, the chain remains the same: Middle East escalation → oil price rise → inflation expectations heat up → Federal Reserve dares not ease → risk assets under pressure. BTC just fell below 77,000, and the probability of a September rate hike has soared to 68%. Geopolitical premiums are being recalculated, and BTC is naturally under pressure in this environment.
This game is still escalating. Iran attacked Kuwait; where will it strike next? How will Trump respond? Stay tuned.👀
Join the discussion in the comments—do you think this conflict will push oil prices to $100?👇$FIL FIL's price increased by 3.9% today, and AR's single-day increase was 9.2%. I think the only advantage FIL might have now is that the coin's unit price looks cheap at only $0.8.
AR's current price is $2.44, which seems much more expensive than FIL, but if you compare the market caps, you'll find AR is much cheaper than FIL.
AR's market cap is $160 million with full circulation, while FIL's circulating market cap is over $600 million, and the fully diluted market cap is $1.5 billion. Comparing by market cap, AR is much cheaper than FIL.
Both are storage projects, and if you are focused on this sector, I believe AR offers much better value for money than FIL.#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
BTC's life-or-death card this week: Nonfarm payrolls.
Nonfarm payrolls on Friday are very likely to continue cooling down, and the expectation for a rate hike in September is expected to decline. Can BTC rise above 80,000 again?
JOLTS, ADP, and initial jobless claims have already consecutively signaled cooling.
Nonfarm payrolls in July decreased by 23,000, and employment data for May and June have been cumulatively revised down by 103,000.
Looking at these signals together, I think the US job market may not be as strong as it appears on the surface.
The market's biggest dilemma is: employment is cooling, but inflation stubbornly refuses to fall.
Core PCE remains at 3.3%, so the probability of a rate hike in September is still around 62%.
But what really determines how the market trades is Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
If nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly: the US dollar and US Treasury yields may fall back, rate hike expectations cool down, and both BTC and gold have a chance to recover the losses after Waller's speech.
Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls are stronger than expected: the US dollar continues to strengthen, US Treasury yields continue to rise, and BTC will remain under short-term pressure.
Employment has been cooling consecutively, and I think the probability that Friday's nonfarm payrolls will be strong enough to make the market believe in an acceleration of the US economy again is not that high.
So as long as nonfarm payrolls are not stronger than expected, the focus during this BTC correction is to watch for low-risk long opportunities.
Don't be scared by Waller's one sentence; Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real answer. $BTC $BTC US-Iran conflict—$BTC didn't rise, I'm losing
In the early hours of August 31, the US military airstruck rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. Normally, geopolitical conflicts should benefit safe-haven assets. Gold rose, crude oil surged above $90. What about Bitcoin? It barely moved.
But I lost—because I had pre-positioned long "safe-haven" trades.
Why didn't $BTC rise? Because the market was digesting two things simultaneously: geopolitical risk and interest rate hike expectations. The rate hike expectations suppressed all risk assets, and BTC was stuck in the middle, unable to move.
This lesson was costly: Bitcoin's "safe-haven" attribute is conditional—when macro liquidity tightens, it behaves like a risk asset, no different from tech stocks. Don't blindly go long just because "there's a war," first see what the Federal Reserve is doing. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 The whole screen is shouting "Second wave of deep dips"? Don't be led by emotions; the on-chain data tells a completely different story.
Currently, BTC just touched 77,000, ETH lost 2400, and the contract market liquidated $120 million within an hour. The panic index dropped to 42, and voices of "bear return" are rising in the community — but this is exactly the scenario the main players want to see.
Three signs indicate this is not a collapse but a shakeout:
① The long-short ratio has been pressed down to 0.85, with shorts starting to cluster. Historical patterns show that whenever this number falls below 0.9, a short-term bottom is often near. The lending rate on exchanges quietly rose back to 4.2%, smart money is quietly levering up to buy.
② The miners' average cost line is around 75,000, which is precisely the shutdown threshold for many large mining farms. Past trends show that the miners' cost zone is always a tough bone to break; breaking below it is a golden pit giving away free money.
③ The OTC discount of USDT has flipped from -0.5% to +0.8%, real money is flowing back. Meanwhile, the overall stablecoin market cap has not shrunk; the money is still waiting on the sidelines, not gone far at all.
The upcoming September 4th employment report is a key short-term turning point. If the data is good, the market will continue to oscillate and grind the bottom; if bad, rate cut expectations will quickly heat up, directly igniting a counterattack
$BTC $ETH $SOL Recent performance of the U.S. stock market has had a complex transmission effect on the crypto market. On September 2nd Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively rebounded and closed higher (Dow up 0.56%, Nasdaq up 0.45%, S&P 500 up 0.46%), with tech stocks and AI chip sectors performing strongly. However, Bitcoin did not fully follow the U.S. stock rally; instead, it surged early in September but then retreated, falling below the $77,000 mark. This is mainly because the biggest macro headwind currently is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations. The U.S. August ADP employment data was below expectations, which eased some rate hike fears, but the market still expects a 62.3% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Rate hike expectations tighten market liquidity, directly weighing on risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, on the first trading day of September, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $236 million, indicating institutional funds are in a "directionless, rapid switching" wait-and-see mode amid macro uncertainty.
"Decoupling" signs between BTC and U.S. stocks and safe-haven attributes
Despite short-term pressure from macro liquidity, Bitcoin is showing signs of "decoupling" from traditional U.S. stock trends. When facing external shocks such as Middle East geopolitical conflicts (e.g., U.S.-Iran tensions), Bitcoin has demonstrated strong resilience and is even regarded by some investors as "digital gold" and a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, Bitcoin has recently shown some independence from macro negative signals like the surge in Japanese government bond yields. $BTC $ETH Bitcoin Bull Market Price Forecast
2026-2027 Cycle Top: Latest Institutional Consensus Range
Pessimistic Scenario (Weak Bull Market / Cycle Stagnation): $60,000-$80,000
Triggers: Sustained high interest rates + continuous ETF outflows + regulatory crackdowns. NYDIG even proposed an extreme bottom model at $38,000-$39,000, Citigroup bearish case at $53,000.
Neutral Baseline (Mainstream Investment Banks, Highest Probability): $125,000-$200,000
Bernstein: $150,000 by end of 2026, $150,000 mid-2027, $200,000 by end of 2027
Standard Chartered: $100,000 by end of 2026 (second downward revision), about $225,000 in 2027
JPMorgan: Fair value $170,000 in 6-12 months
Galaxy: $250,000 target in 2027
→ Taking the concentrated range: $150,000-$240,000 aligns with your original framework, but note Standard Chartered has dropped below the lower bound of this range
Optimistic Scenario (Super Cycle): $280,000-$380,000
Requires sovereign funds + ETF explosion + US dollar credit narrative resonance. Bernstein’s accelerated version projects $200,000 mid-2027, $300,000 peak in 2029, and Cathie Wood’s $500,000+ model is post-2030.
Why "Million Dollar" Is Not in This Cycle
All million-dollar predictions (VanEck/Ark/Bernstein long-term versions) anchor on 2030-2033, requiring crossing the 2028 fifth halving + sovereign adoption realization. The 2027 million-dollar surge is narrative-driven, not model-based.
Key Signal of Institutional "Downgrade" in 2026
Your original draft was written before institutional downgrades; these changes must be incorporated:
Standard Chartered from $300,000 → $150,000 → $100,000 (two cuts within 2026)
Bernstein from $200,000 (2026) → $150,000 (2026) → $200,000 (2027), acknowledging cycle elongation and delayed peak
ETF inflows downgraded from "structural buying" to "tactical funds": net inflow of $21.4 billion in 2025, but continuous outflows of $4.4 billion over 13 days in May-June 2026. NYDIG judges both engines (corporate treasuries + ETFs) are not accelerating
Cycle peak may be partially front-loaded: the $126,000 wave in October 2025 was recognized by some institutions (Fidelity) as the cycle top; 2026-2027 is an "elongated bull / second peak" rather than a classic single peak 12-18 months post-halving
Suggested Revisions to Your Original Framework
Lower bound of pessimistic scenario should shift from your $100,000-$130,000 down to $60,000-$80,000: because once ETFs outflow + macro tightness hit institutional markets, the bottom is set by "production cost + ETF holding cost" around $75,000, not a simple overlap with last cycle’s high of $69,000
Neutral scenario $150,000-$240,000 retained, but weight should drop from 45% to 35%-40%, with some probability shifting to "cycle stagnation = long-term wide-range oscillation without peak"
Optimistic scenario $280,000-$380,000 retained, but trigger difficulty is higher than 2024 estimates (ETF marginal increments declining)
Million-dollar scenario: explicitly excluded from any 2026-2027 scenario
Four Observational Indicators (the set you originally listed) Actual Readings in 2026
ETF monthly net inflows: most months in 2026 did not stabilize above $1.5 billion, with some months showing net outflows; capital foundation weaker than neutral assumption
Federal Reserve real interest rates: 2026 rate cut path revised down from "4 times" to "1-2 times," suppressing valuations
Exchange inventory: inventory dropped by 17,300 coins during August 2026 rebound; whale replenishment was moderate
Regulation: CLARITY/Market Structure Act progress slower than expected, policy premium not fully realized
In summary: The tradable top for this cycle in 2026-2027 is seen at $125,000-$200,000 (neutral), breaking below $75,000 counts as pessimistic realization, surpassing $280,000 requires a super narrative; million-dollar is a post-2030 story, not this cycle. In the previous post, I focused on the lower edge of the 2390–2400 range: as long as there is no effective breakdown, there is a chance for a rebound; only when it truly breaks down and the rebound fails should we consider a downward breakout of the range. Subsequently, ETH dipped to a low of 2355 but did not continue to accelerate downward; instead, it quickly recovered. I chose to go long at 2381, and the current price has returned to around 2404. Combining this 1H chart, currently MA5 is 2392.84, MA10 is 2391.10, and MA30 is 2396.66, the price has risen back above all three moving averages. Also, the VWAP mentioned in the previous post is near 2390, indicating that 2390–2400 is once again becoming a short-term battleground between bulls and bears. However, we cannot call a reversal just yet. The net short positions are about 157,900, still higher than the net long positions of about 107,500; the funding rate has risen to +0.00977%, indicating that bullish sentiment is starting to recover, but we must also guard against leverage-driven long overcrowding. My approach remains unchanged: Hold 2390 → target 2425 Break 2425 → target 2440–2450 Hold 2445 → then target 2485 📍Position: Long at 2381 📍Current price: around 2404 📍Defense level: 2390 📍Short-term resistance: 2425 / 2445 The previous post awaited the lower edge of the range for an answer; now the first step of support has appeared. Continue holding the long at 2381, next watch if 2425 can be broken. Personal trading record, not investment advice. Core Economic Data Interpretation
ISM Manufacturing PMI (August): 54.6
Above the 50 expansion-contraction line, manufacturing is still expanding, but below the previous value and market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the pace of manufacturing expansion, not an economic recession.
JOLTS Job Openings (July): 7.27 million
Slightly below expectations but higher than the revised June figure. Corporate hiring demand is slightly recovering; the job market is cooling down slowly without a rapid collapse or weakening.
Overall Conclusion: Both data sets are neutral, neither clearly negative nor positive. They are not bad enough to dispel concerns about rate hikes, nor hot enough to fully confirm rate hikes.
The market is stuck in a dilemma, which is the root cause of the current volatile trend. To be honest, the market is still very focused on Friday's non-farm payroll release
$BTC surged from 64,000 to 81,000 in August — the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repos, changing liquidity expectations, and the market went crazy. But that's all in the past.
On August 28, Walsh hawked at Jackson Hole, and the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 60%. BTC instantly plunged from 81,000. Then the US-Iran military conflict reignited, BTC fell below 77,000, and over 200 million longs were liquidated within an hour. I cut my position in half and stayed relatively clear-headed.
Now everyone is waiting for the non-farm payroll at 8:30 PM tomorrow. Market expectations are split — NBC says 80,000, Reuters says 58,000. ADP is only 38,000, a seven-month low. Employment is truly cooling down.
But what really keeps me up at night is: how much of the "weak non-farm" expectation has the market already priced in? If the data meets or even exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike won't decrease; it might even be confirmed. BTC just experienced a 25% gain in August, with long positions at very high levels. If expectations are disappointed, 76,000 might not hold.
Conversely, if non-farm is significantly below 30,000, rate hike expectations may ease, and suppressed buying could instantly rebound. But don't forget — the real decision on whether to hike rates in September depends on the CPI on September 11, not the non-farm. The non-farm is just the "appetizer."
My personal advice is not to add or short positions before the data release; wait for the first 15-minute candlestick to form before making a move. In this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
From a trading perspective, I pay more attention to the three indicators of Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate + Wage Growth, rather than just focusing on new employment. If Nonfarm Payrolls are significantly below expectations, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields fall simultaneously, BTC and ETH are likely to see a rapid rebound; but if employment greatly exceeds expectations, or wages continue to be strong, risk assets may continue to be under pressure. The most troublesome situation is the "pump then dump / dump then pump" after the data release, so it is not suitable to go all-in with high leverage before the data; wait for the first wave of liquidity to clear before following the direction, which actually increases the winning rate. Currently BTC is about 77,800, ETH about 2406 dollars, and the market is clearly waiting for this Friday's bomb. $ETH