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After going through several rounds of bull and bear markets, I now choose long-term targets, roughly ranked as: business model > real revenue > valuation.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
In the past, when trading, it was easy to be swayed by narratives and price surges. When the bull market arrives, seeing hot sectors and altcoins continuously rising, I thought that just getting on board would allow me to catch the trend. But after experiencing several major fluctuations, I realized that the logic of price increases and the logic of long-term holding are completely different.
Now when researching a target, I first look at whether it has real revenue, whether the business model is clear, and whether the project has the ability to continuously create value. If it fails these, no matter how cheap the valuation is, I won’t touch it.
Conversely, if the project has real business, users, and continuous revenue, then I judge whether the current valuation is reasonable.
Also, during bull markets, I pay attention to funding rates and market crowding. The higher the leverage and the crazier the sentiment, the more necessary it is to control position size.
I used to think about seizing every opportunity, but now I increasingly feel: the crypto world never lacks opportunities; what’s lacking is an account that can survive to wait for the next opportunity.
Long-term holding is not about trying to catch every wave fully, but about finding targets you truly understand and can hold onto.
Being able to see opportunities and also let them go. As long as the account is still in the game, that is steady happiness.
$BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $SOL I added to my short position on Sol. It looks like reaching 120 is difficult. I initially opened at 123.84, currently around 122 plus a bit. If this wave doesn't go up, and it later breaks below 133, I will add more. I won't add if it falls further, but will add on the rebound!!!$FIL $FIL NV29 Solstice, a major protocol overhaul is coming
✅ Calibration network upgrade started today; no exact mainnet date yet, optimistically expected around late Q4 to early Q1.
Core changes: Abolish Fil+, new sectors default to full QAP; some block reward flows directed to service providers with real paid orders.
The network shifts from competing on storage capacity to competing on real paid business.
Protocol reform is the foundation; a solid foundation doesn't mean orders will come immediately.
The fulfillment of the story still depends on the subsequent implementation of AI storage and paid services.$XDP I was just about to say this coin will go to zero without a whale pumping it, but then I thought about it from another angle
The top 10 holders account for as much as 95.02%, and liquidity is only 1.15 million. This is not "no whale" at all; this is clearly a whale holding a nuclear bomb
The fewer retail investors and the more tightly controlled the coin is, the more dangerous it becomes! Retail investors think new coins will definitely drop and want to short
The whale only needs to use a small amount of funds to ignite it slightly, and it can instantly blow up all shorts
Pulling back from 0.03 to 0.07 or even higher is just a matter of a single spike.
So, never blindly open shorts! In a highly controlled coin, candlestick techniques are all just for show; the script is a double kill of longs and shorts
Currently, this coin can only be watched. The whale is highly controlling it, so be cautious when opening positions! Many people can't stand being out of the market. They feel uneasy without any positions and have to find something to do—chasing longs, bottom fishing, or opening leverage. This is the first lesson for retail investors losing money: mistaking "boredom" for "opportunity." Most of the time, I stay out, holding no perpetual contracts, only keeping a base spot position to nurture slowly. If the hand is bad, fold—that's common sense in poker. So why does it turn into "fear of missing out" in trading? Only those who can wait have the right to bet big when the hand is good. $BTC Are you waiting for a good hand now, or just itching to act? $HYPE HYPE Intraday Trading Strategy
As a popular high-performance DEX public chain token, HYPE often experiences rapid pulse movements intraday. How exactly should one seize HYPE's intraday short-term opportunities?
HYPE is the native token of the Hyperliquid ecosystem and a core asset in the DeFi derivatives sector. Its price movements partly follow BTC market sentiment but are also easily influenced independently by platform trading volume, ecosystem proposals, and airdrop-related news. With ample liquidity and strong short-term explosive power, it often surges quickly and then falls back just as fast. For intraday trading of HYPE, long-term holding strategies should be abandoned; stick to opening and closing positions within the same day, avoiding holding overnight. Nighttime ecosystem updates or platform data anomalies can easily trigger gap moves that disrupt pre-planned trading strategies.
At market open, first observe the overall market and DeFi derivatives sector sentiment; do not rush into trades at the slightest price movement. Check the order book strength, observe the pressure from large sell orders above and support from large buy orders below, and simultaneously monitor volume changes during the opening phase. If the derivatives sector collectively strengthens and HYPE buying volume continues to increase, short-term long opportunities become clearer; if large sell orders keep hitting and the market center of gravity keeps dropping, do not counter-trend bottom-fish or chase rebounds—counter-trend trading is a main cause of intraday losses.
During the market initiation phase, focus on volume-price coordination. Effective HYPE breakouts must be accompanied by volume support. Price breaking key resistance levels upward with sustained volume expansion indicates real capital inflow and stronger upward momentum; if price rises slightly but volume shrinks continuously, it is a low-volume fake rally, mostly a bull trap that will soon correct—do not blindly chase higher.
Before placing orders, plan position size, take-profit, and stop-loss levels. HYPE’s short-term volatility is strongly influenced by platform capital heat, so heavy positions for speculation are strictly prohibited. Set stop-loss simultaneously when opening a position; if the market moves against your prediction and hits the stop-loss, exit decisively—do not hold on hoping for a reversal. Predefine take-profit points and gradually reduce positions upon reaching targets; do not be greedy expecting continuous surges, as short-term funds exit quickly and unrealized profits can evaporate fast.
Control order frequency during trading. Do not immediately open frequent trades to recover losses after a losing trade; such revenge trading often leads to consecutive mistakes. If two consecutive trades fail, pause trading for the day, calmly observe the market, and avoid opening new positions.
Approaching market close, regardless of profit or loss, try to close all positions. Adhere to the core principle of intraday trading to avoid unknown risks from sudden overnight sector news and protect the day’s trading results.
HYPE’s price is heavily influenced by sector rotation, platform trading data, and overall market sentiment. There is no guaranteed winning strategy; even with thorough prior analysis, misjudgments can occur. Maintain rationality throughout the trading process.*Bitcoin Latest News｜Evening of September 29, Chinese Version*
*Current Price: $BTC $84,132*｜Today $83,174 - $85,050｜Slight drop of 1.5% triggered over $180 million in long liquidations
*1. Who's Buying*
- *BTC Spot ETF: Weekly inflow of $2.4 billion, a 1-year high*, full year turned positive +$800 million, Friday outflow $11.8M, waiting and watching
- *SOL Spot ETF: $188 million breaks record*, Bitwise $128 million accounts for 68%, total assets $1.5 billion, 13 consecutive weeks, supporting $120
- *Strategy: Bought 1,665 units @ $85,681*, total holdings 847,666 units
*2. Key Levels (Neutral)*
$BTC: *Break above $85K targets $90K+, break below $83.5K targets $81K-$82K, break below $81K targets $74K-$76K gap*
$ETH: *$2.65K - $2.70K* range, currently $2,710
Currently $84,132 is in the middle, waiting for confirmation, small position
*3. Why No Movement*
$85K pressure with $2 billion short positions, real money ETF buying, fake contracts dumping, narrow range deleveraging. The 25x $ETH/$BTC you mentioned is the most hurt
*4. This Week's Focus #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #NonFarm*
Tuesday Micron earnings, Friday Nonfarm + PCE, weak data = rate cut bullish, strong data = retest $82K This SpaceX trade finally doesn't require updating "still waiting for 146" anymore 😮💨 Opened a short at 156, closed at 145.85, single contract realized a return of +491.71%. Previously fluctuated around 150, unrealized profits retreated and then bounced back, only now seeing "closed position" feels reassuring.
What I’m betting on this time isn’t that SpaceX has no future, but that the market might be overestimating the certainty of future income. There’s a clause worth noting in the prospectus: although the computing power agreement with Anthropic is stated to last until 2029, after the initial three months, either party can terminate with 90 days’ prior notice. This was a previously disclosed arrangement, not a cancellation rumor from today.
Also called a "long contract," but since clients can exit early, and income isn’t irrevocably locked in for years, I don’t think it should be valued with the same certainty. If you just multiply the monthly contract amount all the way to 2029 without considering early termination possibilities, the future calculations can look too optimistic. Of course, having a termination right doesn’t mean the client will definitely leave, nor does it prove this recent drop was caused by it.
This is also the kind of pullback I want to see: the company may not necessarily be worse, but buyers might no longer be willing to pay full price upfront for all the rosy expectations. I can be optimistic about some of its achievements while doubting whether the market is pricing it too aggressively.$CORE
I took a nap, and when I woke up, the profits had almost doubled. Honestly, I had no intention of touching this crappy coin again, but the amount of hype those shills were pushing really pissed me off.
Since you want to keep associating yourself with DOGE’s reputation, fine
Remember when DOGE was around $0.08 and CORE was trading near 6.9U? DOGE is still above $0.09 today, while CORE has fallen nearly 500x from those levels.
And you still have the nerve to make that comparison. 😂😂😂 ETH's 4-hour rally is fierce $ETH, what should be the next trading move?
Looking at Ethereum's chart:
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price oscillates between 2635 and 2710, with moving averages tightly clustered around 2680, a typical consolidation before a breakout. However, Wintermute has established a $126 million short position on Hyperliquid, so the resistance between 2700 and 2710 is significant. Switching to the 15-minute chart, the price rebounded from 2635 to 2703 but then faced resistance and pulled back, currently hovering around 2687 near the short-term moving average, with short-term momentum weakening.
Overall, Ethereum is likely to maintain a wide range between 2640 and 2710 in the short term. Trading strategy: avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking on dips. If it pulls back and stabilizes around 2650 to 2660, consider light long positions with a stop loss at 2630 and targets between 2690 and 2700. If it rebounds to 2700 to 2710 but fails to break through, consider shorting with a stop loss at 2730 and a target of 2660. Patience is key in this market; stick to buying low and selling high within the range before a breakout. Keep positions light, use stop losses, and avoid holding losing trades. Wait for volume to pick up on the 4-hour chart to choose a direction, then add positions accordingly.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
$ETH $BTC The $CORE node staking page popped up a 503 error and became inaccessible, causing many dedicated stakers to panic.
Speculation has already spread in the community: Could it be that the staking entry is locked, preventing retail investors from unlocking and selling, allowing the project team to dump tokens opportunistically?
Of course, this is just market speculation; the 503 error could also be due to server overload or temporary system maintenance, so no definitive conclusion can be drawn yet.
The project team has long promoted node staking as a core highlight, repeatedly emphasizing that this mechanism is safe and reliable, serving as the foundation of network security. But now, the core staking service is directly down, and for the tokens already locked, there is not even an entry to check status or perform unlock operations.
If the market continues to decline, the staked tokens locked in the system cannot be sold, and the ones passively bearing losses are the retail investors who trusted the project and participated in staking.
Familiar comforting phrases follow: It's just maintenance, please be patient.
But the unease caused by assets being locked and unmanageable is very real. No matter how elaborate the narrative, it cannot outweigh the risks brought by the core system outage.
This incident also serves as a reminder to everyone that long-term staking and locking assets means losing flexible control over assets, hiding huge uncertainties.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and extremely risky.Multiple clients are a security cost that ETH is unwilling to cut.
Implementing the Ethereum protocol with multiple independent clients requires more development, testing, and coordination. On the surface, this seems like redundant investment, but I believe it has a clear purpose: to reduce the probability that a single software failure affects the entire network simultaneously. For a system like $ETH that carries real assets, the convenience of a single implementation also means more concentrated risk.
Client diversity is not about having the longest list. If the vast majority of participants still rely on the same implementation, the existence of other clients may not be sufficient. The proportion, independent implementation, and continuous maintenance determine how much actual protection diversity can provide. Security requires genuine decentralization, not just the appearance of richness on an introduction page.
This structure also makes upgrades more cautious. The same rules must be consistent across different codebases, and testing can reveal edge cases and implementation differences. Progress may sometimes seem slow, but it can prevent a single error from being accepted by the entire network simultaneously. Viewing all coordination costs as inefficiency overlooks the error-prevention work it does for users.
I am optimistic about ETH, not because I believe developers will never make mistakes, but because I prefer a system that acknowledges the possibility of errors and builds defenses accordingly. Multiple clients cannot eliminate all risks, but they can ensure that some risks are no longer defended in only one place. The reliability sought by long-term capital is often hidden in these usually invisible, costly engineering choices that only become apparent when problems arise.🔷 $AVAIL: data for rollups
• Modular data availability layer for rollups and L2
• Architecture: DA (data), Nexus (interoperability), Fusion (security)
• Data Availability Sampling: 8-30 samples = almost 100% confidence
• Live mainnet from 2024 alongside Celestia and EigenDA
• Nexus unites chains without fragmentation
🧠 Rollups publish data on Avail cheaper than on Ethereum. But the data market is a price war with Celestia and EigenDA. Nexus is the way out of the commodity trap Coming means trust.
Entered BTC at 2644, took profit at 2688, 44 points, secured 4KU.
Positions are given, clearly state stop loss and take profit in advance, the rest is actually not that complicated—just execute.
Today's market is still moving back and forth within a range, BTC is under slightly more pressure than ETH, as long as it doesn't break key levels, follow the plan.
Brothers themselves said:
"Call me if anything comes up."
This sentence is actually enough.
No need to guess every day, no need to constantly watch the market.
Enter when it's time to enter, exit when it's time to exit.
In the end, trading comes down to two words: trust and execution.$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Long and Short Crowding Rankings
$XAU positive funding rate is relatively high, with longs paying higher costs: current rate +0.0694%, historical 99th percentile (100 settlements); price up 0.22%.
$HBAR current funding rate sign differs from 24-hour cumulative rate: current rate -0.0343%, historical 0th percentile (100 settlements); price down 1.63%; total of 3 settled rates in past 24 hours +0.026%, currently paid by shorts.
$PONS price weakening, longs still need to pay: current rate +0.0150%, historical 64th percentile (100 settlements); price down 0.77%.$BTC confirmed the weekly MS break, which means the bull is starting sooner than I expected.
Deployed a lump-sum purchase this morning, bringing my accumulation process to about 70% complete.
Leaving the rest to scoop dips. The lower, the better - but I'll take what we get.*Bitcoin Latest News｜September 29 $84,132 Chinese*
*1. Price*
$BTC *$84,132*, fluctuated today between *$83,174 - $85,050*, holding above $84K. $ETH $2,710, $SOL $124.5 strongest, $BNB $764.9
*2. Who is buying*
- *Strategy*: Bought *1665 coins @ $85,681* last week, total holdings *847,666 coins*, cost $75,437. Sold stocks to finance purchase
- *BTC Spot ETF*: $2.4 billion inflow last week, a one-year high, full year turned positive *+$800 million*, but $11.8M outflow on Friday
- *SOL Spot ETF*: *$188 million single-week record*, Bitwise $128 million accounts for 68%, total assets $1.5 billion
*3. Why no rise*
Real money ETF + Strategy bought $2.5 billion, but *$85K is suppressing $2 billion shorts*, contracts with 40x leverage are hammering, $83,174 triggered $180 million long orders
*4. Key levels*
Support *$84K → $82,963 → $80,172*, resistance *$85K reclaim to turn strong → $90K*
*5. This week's focus #PCEAndPayrollsWeek*
Friday's *Nonfarm NFP* sets direction, poor data = rate cut = bullishLate at night, laying out the data to calculate — $BTC is currently around 83,650, having slid from a 24-hour high of 85,049 down to a low of 82,606, dropping about 1.5%. It's now stuck grinding near 83,000, with a large bearish candle during the day showing considerable volume.
The data is quite conflicting: last week, the US stock market spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.39 billion, the strongest week since October 2025, and year-to-date it has turned positive to about $900 million; however, daily inflows declined from nearly $1 billion on Monday down to $135 million on Friday, indicating cooling momentum. Tonight, OKEx BTC perpetual positions are around $242 million, about 29,000 BTC, with spot 24-hour trading volume around $550 million — money is still circulating in the market, but prices haven't kept pace with that institutional buying.
The key level to watch is the daily low around 82,600 — don't let it break below that first, and on the rebound, watch if it can hold back above 84,000 / 85,000. $ETH is currently about 2,690, returning to near 2,690.
$BTC $ETH #ETFInflow #Volume #DataAnalysis #Bitcoin #BTC #ETH
Not investment advice; manage your own positions and risks. $ETH Market Review 📊
The second coin followed the main coin to complete a bottoming and rebound wave, currently priced at 2684, down slightly by 0.18% in 24 hours. The intraday low dipped to 2635.8, with a high touch at 2691.65.
On the 15-minute level, all moving averages have turned upward, with WMA5/10/20 forming a bullish support band. MACD continues to show increasing red bars, and KDJ has reached a high level, entering the short-term overbought zone, indicating a need for a pullback to digest gains.
There is notable news: Wintermute has established a large $126 million short position on Hyperliquid, with institutional shorts lying in wait, planting a hidden risk on the path of the rebound.
Key price levels:
Support below: around 2659 (WMA20 moving average). Holding this level on a pullback will allow the rebound structure to continue;
Short-term resistance above: the 2691–2714 range, which is around the intraday high. To continue the upward attack, a volume breakout is necessary. $TRUMP surged to CoinGecko trending, 24h -4.7%
$TRUMP surged to CoinGecko trending, but the price lagged behind: currently at 2.027, 24h -4.7%, daily range 1.9682–2.1571. Trending didn't bring buying pressure; the contrast is a signal. I'm bearish, and this is the position.
The trend itself is bearish, daily short moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MA7 below MA30, 30 days -24.6%, 7 days -7.64%, all rebounds are distribution points.
The capital side is also unfavorable, OI 29,877,041.53, down -6.1% from today's record; across the market, 22/71 are up, median -3.368%, risk_off trending tokens get hit first.
Sentiment is twisted too, fear-greed index at 74 is greedy, 30-day range position only 0.164—sentiment and position are disconnected, divergence mostly repaired by decline.
Resistance above: 2.03, strong pressure at 2.157 (24h high)
Support below: 1.991, break targets 1.847 (Bollinger lower band)
Watershed: before reclaiming 2.03, rebounds are treated as pullbacks
Bearish stance unchanged, action straightforward—enter short at current price 2.027, stop loss above 2.157, take profit at 1.847.
Follow me to avoid the traps of trending early.
$TRUMP $BTC🌅 Morning crypto check.
$BTC holds near $84K, $ETH around $2.7K, and $SOL near $121.
ETF flows are picking up: ➤ BTC: ~$2.4B weekly inflows
➤ ETH: ~$690M
➤ SOL: record $86.7M daily inflow
Liquidity is returning. Structure first, narrative second.
No FOMO. Let price confirm the move. 👀
$ZEC
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek 📉BTC sharp drop of 2000 points in-depth analysis: It's not market news, US Treasury bonds are the real driving force behind the scenes
At 15:34 in the afternoon, BTC quoted at 82918, with a 24-hour decline of 1.78%. Starting from 84974 at 8:15 in the morning, it directly retraced 2000 points in just 7 hours. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 192 million, with long positions accounting for 74% of the liquidations.
There are three core drivers behind this round of decline:
First: The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.18%, hitting a 17-year high. Risk-free yields surpassing 5% naturally divert funds away from Bitcoin, which itself generates no interest and is highly volatile. This is no longer an internal issue within the crypto space but a global asset pricing logic.
Second: Geopolitical disturbances. Trump rejected the Iran ceasefire plan, the Strait of Hormuz situation remains tense, Brent crude oil broke through $98, and risk-off sentiment further suppresses risk assets.
Third: Technical self-liquidation. BTC failed three times to break the 85000 level. After the one-hour moving average fell below 84400, selling accelerated, mostly due to long stop-loss liquidations rather than active short selling.
Key liquidation ranges this week:
Below 80516, over 1 billion long positions are concentrated for liquidation; above 88520, about 985 million short positions are set for liquidation. Data from Tuesday and Wednesday will determine the short-term market direction.
In summary: US Treasury yields are the true leaders of the current market trend.*Latest Bitcoin News | September 29 Early Morning Chinese Version*
*Current Price: $BTC $84,132 Holding $84K*
Lowest this morning $83,174 stopped out, highest $85,050, 24h volatility. $ETH $2,710, $SOL $124.5 strongest
*1. Biggest Bullish Factor: ETF Money Arrives*
- *$BTC Spot ETF: Weekly inflow $2.4B, a nearly 1-year high*, 7-day $2.84B, yearly from -$5.8B to *+$800M*
- But *Friday outflow $11.8M*, $999M→$134M→outflow, institutions and non-farm payroll (NFP)
- *$SOL ETF: $188M single week record*, Bitwise $128M accounts for 68%, 13 consecutive weeks of inflow
*2. Biggest Buyer: Strategy*
Last week bought *1,665 coins @ $85,681*, total holdings *847,666 coins* cost $75,437. Sold MSTR stock to finance purchase, not profit
*3. Why It Can't Rise*
ETF $2.4B + Strategy $140M real money buying, but *$2B shorts pressuring at $85K*, $83,174 triggered $180M long orders, contracts dumping the price ZEC (Zcash) Core Data & Upside Analysis ZEC is a well-established privacy coin using zk-SNARK zero-knowledge proofs, with a total supply cap of 21 million tokens (the same as BTC) and about 16.95 million coins in circulation. It is a POW mining coin and has completed the halving, reducing inflation. ✅ Positive Data (Driven by Increases) 1. Narrative: Privacy Track Against the backdrop of stricter global regulation, expectations for privacy transaction demand have increased. During the rotation of the privacy sector, ZEC was one of the sector leaders; The SEC previously concluded its investigation into the Zcash Foundation without penalties, temporarily easing regulatory pressure and attracting institutional attention. 2. Supply and Demand: Halving Effect The halving of block rewards in 2024 reduced new supply, tightening supply and supply, which is also the underlying factor behind this round of sharp rise. 3. Funding Side: High futures positions easily lead to short squeezes and strong explosive momentum; Institutions like Grayscale have released bullish models, attracting market enthusiasm, with this round of gains far exceeding Bitcoin. 4. Technical Upgrades: Continuous iteration of Zebra and Z3 protocols, optimized block address user experience, and ecosystem advancement. ⚠️ Core Negative Factors (Limiting Upside Potential) 1. Regulation is the biggest risk: Privacy coins are inherently subject to strict anti-money laundering regulations; multiple exchanges have previously removed ZEC; If the US introduces privacy coin restriction legislation, there could be a sharp crash, with risks far greater than mainstream coins BTC/ETH. 2. Privacy is optional: Enabling ZEC privacy transactions requires manually enabling blocked addresses, and most transactions still doThe rebound has finally appeared, but I am more concerned whether it only squeezed out the shorts rather than a trend reversal. The public market prices are about $BTC 83,636, $ETH 2,692, $SOL 119.9, and it still hasn't fully turned green in 24 hours; after repeatedly retesting around 82K and pulling back, it indeed improved short-term sentiment but is still insufficient to prove the trend has switched.
My contrarian personal observation is: the faster the pullback, the easier it is for people to immediately chase longs. I will wait for $BTC to close firmly above 84.2K and observe whether $ETH can maintain above 2.69K; if support above 83.6K is insufficient and it falls below 82.5K again, I will treat it as range-bound or weak for now and not consider a single rally as a new trend.
There are two views in the window: buying the dip and shorting the rebound, but without enough publicly verifiable catalysts, I temporarily give up on specific projects. Regarding position sizing, I would rather miss the first leg than chase prices in the middle of the range. Will you wait for a volume breakout or wait for a pullback to hold? Just sharing information, not investment advice. $ZEC finally came down, almost got liquidated last night, almost wanted to stop loss, luckily held on
If it falls this time, breaking below 1500, basically the short-term momentum will be exhausted. Last night tried to break through but didn't succeed
Short-term, go short, don't think it's a big problem
Long-term short, also feels fine
If it breaks below 1500, it will be hard to go back up to 1600, because there are quite a few long positions trapped above
The market shouldn't only have short 🧠 $BTC / $ETH | TWO FORMS OF POWER
$BTC makes scarcity a measurable form of digital value.
$ETH makes programmability a measurable form of digital utility.
Bitcoin uses transparent monetary rules to create a network where supply and ownership can be independently verified.
Ethereum uses programmable execution to create an environment where assets, applications, and transactions can operate through shared rules on an open networkReal trading day 169, $OURA hopes to get an IPO premium, pricing tomorrow, opening the day after tomorrow, hoping for a strong performance. If it drops to around 45, I will add to my position. $ETH/USDT (1h Chart)
ETH Strong Reversal Off $2,635 Demand Zone
ETH bounced cleanly off $2,635.71 with a heavy green impulse candle pushing straight to $2,691.51. MA5 ($2,669.78) and MA10 ($2,660.46) are crossing upward, breaking localized downtrend structure.
Entry: $2,670 – $2,690
Target 1: $2,710
Target 2: $2,725
Stop Loss: $2,630
Sustaining above $2,680 holds bullish structure toward $2,720 resistance.
DYOR. Not financial advice (NFA).
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead *Bitcoin Latest News｜Evening of September 28 $BTC $84,132*
*1. Price*
BTC $84,132 (+0.5%), today dipped to $83,174 triggering stop-losses then pulled back, holding above $84K. $ETH $2,710, $SOL $124, $BNB $764.9
*2. Biggest Buyers*
- *Strategy*: Added *1665 coins @ $85,681* last week, total holdings *847,666 coins* with a cost basis of $75,437. Selling stocks to buy crypto, not buying with profits
- *ETF*: BTC spot ETF weekly inflow *$2.4 billion, a one-year high*, but on Friday turned to *outflow of $11.8M*, waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls. SOL ETF even stronger, *weekly $188 million record*, Bitwise accounts for 68%
*3. Key Levels*
Support at $82,963 → $80,172, resistance at $85K → $90K. If $85K is not reclaimed, the $2 billion shorts won’t be squeezed out
*4. This Week*
Friday’s *NFP Nonfarm + PCE* will set the direction, weak data is bullish, strong data will retest $82K. Real money is buying spot, contracts with 40x leverage are selling.
*In short: $84K is the lifeline, hold it to see $85K, break it to see $80K.*$ETH At 8 p.m. on September 28, 2023, Genesis Time arrived. Ethereum developers once again focused on the Holesky testnet's validator participation rate. Only when more than two-thirds of staked weights went live and voted could the network complete the final confirmation. A few minutes later, participation crossed the threshold and blocks began to be produced stably. A developer announced the successful launch in the coordination channel, then joked, "Looks like there's no need to make a third one." Behind this statement was a rather unsuccessful launch. Holesky was originally scheduled to go live on September 15, 2023. That day happened to be the first anniversary of Ethereum's merge, and the team hoped to mark the mainnet's farewell to mining with a new testnet that adopted proof-of-stake from the Genesis block. When the time came, the chain did not start properly. The problem lay in the Genesis configuration at the execution layer. Some nodes used inconsistent configurations, resulting in several chains that could not merge. Although some validators manually corrected files and tried to continue, the online staking weight was always insufficient, and the network could not complete final confirmation. The developers quickly abandoned fixing this flawed Genesis chain, regenerated the configuration, distributed the files, and scheduled the second launch for September 28. The date needs to be clearly specified: Holesky's official configuration set the genesis time as 12:00 UTC on September 28, 2023, corresponding to 20:00 Taiwan time that day, with no crossover issues. CoinDesk's on-site records show that about ten minutes later, the developers confirmed the network successfully launched. Holesky's task$ETH is trading near $2,650, almost exactly halfway between two liquidation magnets: $2,562 below and $2,828 above. That symmetry is the tell. The market has stopped expressing a view and started building a trap. The lower rail is loaded with $636 million in long liquidations. A clean break under $2,650 opens the path through $2,600 and into that $2,562 trigger. The upper rail holds $649 million in short liquidations, with a route mapped through $2,742 — already rejected once this week — then th【On-Chain Trading Update｜XRP】
Short position detected at address 0xc30c:
▪ Execution price: $1.53
▪ Transaction amount: $391,118.44
▪ Leverage: 10x$BTC/USDT (1h Chart)
BTC Local Bottom Defense & V-Rebound
BTC swept $82,606 liquidity and printed a strong bullish recovery candle back above $83,600 on the 1h timeframe. MA5 ($83,182) crossed MA10 ($83,169), confirming short-term momentum shift toward MA20 ($83,690) resistance.
Entry: $83,300 – $83,600
Target 1: $84,400
Target 2: $85,150
Stop Loss: $82,500
$85K remains key overhead barrier. Tight risk management required.
DYOR. Not financial advice (NFA).
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek Today’s BTC, ETH & ENA buying update:
BTC: Around $83.6K, down ~1.5%. Better to buy in small portions on pullbacks rather than chase.
ETH: Around $2,675; $2,750–$2,800 is the key resistance zone.
ENA: Around $0.27–$0.29 area; momentum has been strong recently, but today is weaker. Also, ~17.2M ENA tokens are scheduled to unlock Oct. 5, which can add selling pressure.
Trading approach: BTC/ETH = gradual entries; ENA = higher risk, wait for confirmation rather than full-size buying. *Latest Bitcoin News｜Evening of September 28, Chinese Version*
*Current Price: $BTC $84,132 | $ETH $2,710 | $SOL $124*
*1. Big Money Movements*
- *#BTC Spot ETF Weekly Inflows Hit Highest in Nearly a Year*: Last week *$2.4 billion*, 7-day total $2.84 billion, highest since October 2024, yearly total flipped from -$5.8 billion to *+$800 million*. But *note the decline*: Monday $99.9M → Friday *-$11.8M first outflow*, institutions waiting for Friday's Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)
- *$SOL ETF Breaks Record*: Just launched, *weekly $188 million all-time high*, with Bitwise BSOL accounting for $128 million (68%), Friday single-day $86.67 million also a new high. Now SOL ETF total assets *$1.5 billion*. 13 consecutive weeks of inflows, $447 million in past 30 days
- *Strategy Bought Again*: Last week bought *1,665 units, average price $85,681, spent $142.7 million*, total holdings *847,666 units, average price $75,437*. The money came from selling MSTR stock, not profits
*2. Why Didn’t the Price Rise After Buying? You Asked Before*
One company + ETF bought a total of $2.5 billion, but the price plunged with a $180 million+ spike at $83,174. The reason: The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 2007 high, and Capital Economics says this round of sell-off is blamed on interest rate expectations, not on AI bond issuance or fiscal policy.
This explanation sounds familiar to me. I've seen before that price fluctuations are entirely attributed to "changes in expectations," but no one can clearly explain the expectations themselves.
Reilly's reason is rising oil prices and a strong US economy, and he also predicts the yield will drop to 4.25% by the end of 2027.
From near the 2007 high back down to 4.25%, there's more than a year in between, but the material doesn't explain what will realize this decline.
I tend to think this is more like finding a plausible explanation for the current high level. The end of 2027 is still far away; by then, who will remember today's prediction.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元 $HYPE $VIRTUAL Long
Entry: 0.8129–0.8235 •
Stop Loss: 0.7638
TP1: 0.8591 | TP2: 0.8959 | TP3: 0.9327
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #BTC现货ETF weekly inflows hit a nearly one-year high
The leader has something to say
The Trump administration is planning to push an overseas stablecoin initiative. The Treasury Department, State Department, and DFC may all participate, aiming to cooperate between government and private enterprises to spread the dollar stablecoin overseas. The plan is still under discussion, and cooperating companies and target markets have not been decided.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is soliciting opinions on the payment stablecoin regulatory framework under the GENIUS Act, and bank stablecoins are also beginning to enter actual payment and settlement scenarios.
I believe the core of this matter is not issuing coins, but the extension of dollar hegemony. The more popular stablecoins become, the greater the global demand for the dollar and short-term US Treasuries. Tether alone holds 114.96 billion USD in US Treasuries, and as the scale expands, issuers' appetite for short-term US Treasuries will only grow.
This is a long-term positive for the crypto market. The use cases of USDT and USDC are expanding from trading settlement to cross-border payments and overseas dollar circulation, making the underlying demand for stablecoins more solid. But in the short term, there is no direct boost to coin prices.
My large BTC position at 82,800+ is still on the table, with a stop loss at 81,000 and a target of 86,000 to 88,000. This week's PCE and non-farm payrolls are key; I won't hold heavy positions before the data. No matter how big the stablecoin narrative is, it can't change the reality that the Fed just raised rates. No chasing highs or panic selling, waiting for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.🚨 $FIL NV29 is going live on Calibration Testnet.
Solstice (FIP-0118) is scheduled for activation on Sept. 28 at 12:59:30 UTC.
Lotus, Forest and Curio have already rolled out upgrade-ready releases.
A key network upgrade to watch for Filecoin. 👀
#FIL #Filecoin #Crypto$BTC IS AT A CRITICAL DECISION ZONE MACRO DATA IS NEXT
BTC pulled back from $86K into the $81K–$82K LPS zone.
Hold $81K–$82K → $90K+ stays on watch.
Lose $81K → $74K–$76K FVG comes into focus.
This week: PCE + U.S. jobs data could drive Fed expectations and BTC volatility.
No prediction. Watch the reaction..
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus $SNDK news pressure suppresses, bullish momentum exhausted!
Today's downside target is 1600
1. Moving average structure
Daily price breaks below EMA5 and EMA10 short-term moving averages, moving averages turn from support to resistance. Previous rebound highs gradually decrease, rebound strength continues to weaken, forming a fluctuating downward structure. Strong resistance above at 1750, unable to retake this level, bearish trend continues. Primary downside target is 1600.
2. Indicator and capital signals
KDJ death cross diverges downward, K value 38.4, J value 3.6, bearish force continues to release; RSI6 falls back to 41.23, not yet deeply oversold, more downside space remains.
Open interest slightly declines, high-level longs gradually reduce positions, volume shrinks during rebound phase, expands on decline, selling pressure continues to appear.
3. Market logic
After falling from the 2382 high, the rebound is a bear market corrective rally, not a new main uptrend. After the rebound ends, bears retake control; as long as the 1750 resistance is not broken, the downtrend continues, targeting a test of 1600 support.
✅ Core idea: The rebound is a shorting opportunity, target 1600; if volume surges and price breaks above 1750, the bearish logic fails.
#特朗普称通胀迎来好消息 Your breakdown is very accurate. Let me cross-check the details from the 8-K released today:
*Number Reconciliation:*
*Only 1,665 coins were bought this week (your figure of 1666 is basically correct)*, not 847,666 coins.
- Average price *$85,681*, spent *$142.7 million*.
- Total holdings *847,666 coins* is a cumulative number, average price *$75,437*, total cost *$63.95 billion*.
- Now $BTC is at $84,132, just enough to show an unrealized loss for this week’s purchase, with unrealized gains left at about $6.6 billion.
*Where the money came from, you were right — not from profits, but from issuing stock:*
- This week sold *1.469 million shares of $MSTR*, cashing out *$246.2 million*.
- Of that, $142.7 million was used to buy BTC, the remaining $103.5 million plus $48.1 million of own cash = *$151.7 million used to repurchase the company’s preferred stock STRC*.
- There is still $1.884 billion worth of MSTR on the books that can be issued further.
So it is: *Shareholders buy MSTR → Company gets the money → Half buys BTC, half repurchases preferred stock to pay dividends*, this is the money proposed by #Strategy to pay daily dividends on preferred stock.
*A company keeps buying but the price doesn’t go up, who is taking the buy orders?*
This is the core of your question, three parties taking the shares:
*1. Miners + long-term holders sold when it was bought*
It bought at an average of $85,681, higher than the current price of $84,132.Strategy just added 1,665 $BTC , lifting its total to 847,666 $BTC as of September 27, 2026.
The bigger signal may actually be the $152 million STRC repurchase, made while the company still holds $6.02 billion in USD assets.
Buying Bitcoin and buying back preferred stock at the same time suggests a treasury actively managing both conviction and balance sheet strength.The news continues to improve
Chainlink officially released CCIP 2.0 today. The core is not just a simple "cross-chain upgrade," but it starts allowing enterprises to participate in verifying cross-chain transactions themselves: enterprises can run their own Cross-Chain Verifier (CCV), or connect to third-party verification agencies like Infosys and Nethermind; at the same time, compliance controls such as KYC, AML, and sanctions screening are added.ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $690 million last week, but the coin price fell from a weekly high of about 2805 back to around 2695. The institutional buying and the market price increase do not match at all.
I think the situation is very clear: last week there was still a net outflow of about $140 million, but on Friday this week it flipped to a net inflow of about $690 million. BlackRock's ETHA alone contributed about $326 million, pushing the cumulative net inflow to about $13.9 billion, with a scale of about $17.8 billion.
However, the spot price only ground down from about 2776 to about 2695, the weekly candle still dropped nearly 3%, and the single-day inflow of about $87 million on Friday did not immediately push the price up.
Simply put: the money in the box is coming in, but the on-exchange price is first digesting the profit-taking near the weekly high. Don't take ETF inflows as a direct buy signal.
For now, I will just keep an observation position and not chase this move; if it fails, watch if the daily chart can hold near the weekly low around 2620, or if volume picks up to retake around 2800.
What do you think? Will this wave grind down to 2600 before continuing, or will the inflows directly push it to break through 2800?
#ThisWeekKeyNonFarmAndPCEData #USIranContinueNegotiationsOnHormuzOpeningConditions $ETH $AAVE $LINKHYPE's unlock tomorrow is something I really think we should keep an eye on.
Recently, Hyperliquid has been quite strong, with no shortage of trading volume, revenue, or hype, and HYPE has become one of the few coins in this cycle that truly reflects its fundamentals.
But there's something unavoidable tomorrow:
About $900 million worth of HYPE is about to unlock, accounting for approximately 4.46% of the current circulating supply.
This scale is no longer a small unlock that can be casually ignored.
And there's an interesting signal today:
A wallet associated with Wintermute has currently piled up over $100 million in short positions on Hyperliquid, with ETH as the largest position, and also shorting SOL and HYPE.
Of course, big players shorting doesn't necessarily mean HYPE will definitely drop, and market makers' positions shouldn't be simply interpreted as bearish.
But what I think is truly worth watching next is:
Whether the fundamental buying pressure can absorb the potential selling pressure brought by the unlock.
Many coins in the past had problems of no revenue, no users, and constant unlocking every day.
HYPE is different.
What it may need to prove now is something else:
Whether a truly profitable project can withstand nearly $900 million in new tokens.Opened $BTC short at 83,716 and closed at 82,782. 🎯 Captured 934 points with a reported 4,637 profit. I initially expected the rebound to test the 84.4K moving-average resistance, but the market turned weaker than anticipated. In moments like this, waiting stubbornly for the perfect level can mean missing the entire move—or entering too late when momentum has already faded. Contract entry points are fixed. Traders must stay flexible. $BTC $ETHFI $ZEC #MicronEarningsAhead #PCEAndPayrollsWeek *Latest Bitcoin News | September 28 Chinese NFP Preview Edition*
*Current Price $BTC $84,132 | $SOL $124 | $ETH $2.71K*
*1. Big Money Situation*
BTC spot ETF weekly inflow *$2.4B*, 7-day $2.84B, highest since October 2024, full year turned from a loss of -$5.8B to a profit of *+$800M*.
But inflows are fading: Monday $999M → Friday *-$11.8M first outflow*, indicating *waiting for NFP*, institutions are cautious.
*2. The NFP reaction order you mentioned is confirmed today*
*$SOL $120 highest beta moving first*: today spiked to $123.45 triggering over $9,910 long orders, weakest but first to rebound.
*$BTC $84.2K sets direction*: now $84,132 holding $84K, early spike to $83,174 stopped out then recovered, only reclaiming $85K counts as strong.
*$ETH $2.7K follows BTC*: only breaking $2.75K counts as catching up.
*$OKB $121 defense*: $120 key support, resistant to decline.
*$RE $0.47 last*: waiting for RWA rotation.
*3. Key Levels*
Support: *$BTC $84K → $82,963 → $80,172*
*$ETH $2.66K → $2.52K | $SOL $120 → $112*
Resistance:7u challenge to reach 100 million!
Day 38
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3700u
Survival cost: 2600u
Available funds: 1100u+
Didn't expect Mid-Autumn Festival to be really expensive, all kinds of expenses consumed 600 USD. This is my precious principal, and it feels like I haven't done anything. Available funds are only 1100 USD now, National Day is coming soon, feeling so anxious!
Maybe this is what they call survival cost, it’s tough before breaking through the survival cost line.
1. Only $BNB left in spot;
2. Long position on Bitcoin $BTC still held, key level around 82,500, watching if this level can hold;
3. Continuously monitoring $ONDO and ENA;
4. PONS fundamentals have been poor recently, income in the last 24 hours only 180,000 USD, continuously declining, will watch again when fundamentals improve;
5. And then I’m full of meme coins, currently none are in ambush, but a few have been ambushed, crying in pain.
Current overall approach: writing content, contracts, and meme.
Strategy still uses a barbell approach, doing mainstream top assets on one side and pure meme on the other.