Gold Market: Gold is currently in a 4-hour level downtrend. This correction is expected to drop to around 4000. The important support at the 4-hour level to watch is near 4065-4085. If a small cycle structural change occurs here, it would be a good bottom-fishing opportunity. $XAU

#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Crude Oil Market: Trump uses the chart in Image 1 every day to "numb" the market. Last night featured another dramatic "dialogue," with Saudi media stating that Iran has agreed to stop uranium enrichment in exchange for the US easing sanctions, but this was later denied by Iranian officials. Trump also denied this morning any easing of sanctions on Iran or releasing frozen funds in exchange for Iran taking substantive measures on the nuclear issue. Crude oil prices fell from 96 to 91 yesterday, currently rebounding around 93-94. I'm holding short positions on crude oil at 96-95 and it's making me almost sick. Now the US and Iran are in a tug-of-war stage. The good news is no gunfire yet, and a third party is still mediating. The bad news is neither side is willing to give ground. Here's some experience: once negotiations become effective, don't miss the crude oil drop, at least a 10-point start, with a target directly at 83-85. If hostilities resume, abandon all short positions. [Personal trading opinion only, not investment advice] $CL

#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData Reviewing trading views: Last week I kept updating my short positions on crude oil, based on the expectation of negotiations. After all, it’s been a long time since we heard the sound of artillery fire. Now is the negotiation period; crude oil is in a phase of oscillating decline. The current situation is mutual probing, but Iran is more passive and continues ceasefire talks. Trump needs an agreement he can explain. As long as the guns stay silent, the agreement is being continuously refined and modified, and will eventually be reached in October. At this deadlock stage, we can only keep adjusting entry points upward. Meanwhile, Bitcoin stopped going long after 87K and has been testing the top to short. The reason is the previous continuous large gap breakouts, with short liquidations and forced closures driving the main move. New highs require buying volume that is hard to keep up in the short term. Approaching October’s rate hike expectations, as of today the rate hike probability is 65.9%. We will see if this week’s nonfarm data will promote or weaken that. Technically, the 1H and 4H charts have entered a bearish trend, but the larger structure is intact, representing a pullback in an uptrend. This short position targets support around 82K first; if broken, look to liquidity zones at 80-79K. Gold started structural changes after breaking below 4300 at the beginning of the month, but confirmation was needed. After breaking down again, it’s confirmed and currently still in a correction. Gold will rise, but not now. The current adjustment is not finished. This wave is expected to pull back to 4085-4065 for entry; only below 4100 is it advisable to go long. [Personal trading views only, not investment advice] $BTC $XAU $CL

#BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion Briefly about $BTC Yesterday, during BTC's breakthrough of 85K, about $750 million worth of positions were liquidated across the market, of which approximately $648 million were short positions This is also why the price surged so rapidly If this price increase was driven by short liquidations, then breaking the new high to 90K again will require more longs to enter and push the price up Unless the price pulls back or consolidates at a high level to raise OI and increase buying pressure. This is not a shorting alert In the short term, watch for a stop to the decline around 84.6k before entering more longs. Trend-wise: From the daily chart perspective, below the 95-97K range, we are currently only looking at a rebound, but this rebound has been very profitable and has also driven some altcoin rallies; those brave enough to bottom-fish have already taken profits.

#伊朗称已转达停战条件，油价迎新变量 Trump has spoken, not ruling out talks Meeting with the Iranian president at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday This is a great dialogue under an international conference Lower crude oil prices are good for everything Crypto is looking up! Bitcoin breaking through 82,500 can quickly reach 85K Last time the target was 95-97K The key is the altcoin season is coming, some good coins have only tripled at most, and some big coins haven't started yet! In short: embrace the long-term trend, expect more pullbacks! $CL

Lately, I've been increasingly feeling that this war might not only change oil prices. In the past, whether a country had energy security depended on whether there was oil underground. In the future, it might also depend on whether the country can operate normally after leaving oil. If a war can cause a country that imports tens of millions of barrels of crude oil daily to suddenly reduce imports by several million barrels, yet its economy does not come to a halt, then electrification is no longer just an industrial upgrade. It begins to become a kind of—geopolitical defense capability. And the real competition in the next round of national rivalry might not only be about: who controls the oil fields. But rather—who controls the ability to "break free from oil fields."

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Not waiting for tonight's rate decision Previous value 3.75%, expected 4% (a 25 basis points hike) No matter how it's announced, it will be in line with or below expectations The bearish market has already dropped as much as it should If the speech after Walsh is dovish, then it's the script of a rebound after a spike Otherwise, the decline continues!

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ A new week, with the main focus on the interest rate meeting this week. Currently, major institutions are all certain that there will be a rate hike this time, and the market is moving in anticipation. The current conditions show an increasing probability of a rate hike, but there are also many conditions against it. Now the pressure is on Powell. Previously, I expected Powell to withstand the pressure, but this time, with oil prices and two prior data points leaning towards a rate hike expectation, I somewhat doubt that Powell might actually raise rates. However, there are several scenarios for a rate hike, and the announcement of the rate decision and the subsequent press conference remarks will have a significant impact. If a 25 basis point hike is made in September but the possibility of further hikes is downplayed, then the pre-emptive downward movement will limit the room for a pullback. If after a 25 basis point hike the expectation of continued tightening is reinforced, then the market will face sustained pressure. Conversely, if the pressure is withstood this time and rates remain unchanged, the market will rebound. But if the press conference adopts a hawkish tone emphasizing possible delays in further hikes, that will also have an impact. However, I think this probability is very low; if there is no hike in September, there definitely won't be one in October (despite the sharp rise in oil prices in September). Therefore, combining all the above with market conditions, the probability ratio of a market bottom rebound versus sustained decline is 6:4. I am more inclined to look for a low point to bet on a rise. I lean towards Powell maintaining a hawkish tone verbally but keeping actions unchanged.