#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

September Fed hike expectations have moved up quickly, but I don’t think the decision is settled yet. Right now, markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of a September rate hike, after the Fed’s tone turned more hawkish around Jackson Hole. But we still have one very important piece of the puzzle coming: the August jobs report. This is where things get interesting for me. If NFP comes in stronger than expected and unemployment stays contained, it becomes much easier for the Fed to argue that the economy can handle another hike while inflation remains above target. But if hiring looks noticeably weaker, the conversation becomes more complicated fighting inflation is important, but the Fed also can’t completely ignore deterioration in the labor market. Personally, I think this NFP matters more than usual. I’m not only watching the headline jobs number; I’ll also be looking at unemployment and wage growth before deciding whether the report actually strengthens the hike case. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds $BTC

Friday's jobs report could reset the odds of a September Fed hike. The latest data set the stage. August ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 from 55.6, while July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M. Factory growth is slowing, while price pressure remains elevated: prices paid held at 71.1, WTI closed above $90, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.78%. Here's where things stand: · CME FedWatch puts September hike odds around two-thirds, up from roughly one-third before Jackson Hole · August NFP consensus is near +55K, though some estimates are closer to +65K, after July's -23K print · Unemployment is expected near 4.2%, with annual wage growth seen cooling toward 3.0% The headline alone will not settle it. The last report revised May and June payrolls down by a combined 103K, while July's lower unemployment rate coincided with 264K people leaving the labor force. Revisions and participation may matter as much as the print. Friday is only the first checkpoint. August CPI lands Sep 11, followed by the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting and a fresh dot plot. Crypto is caught in the middle. BTC entered September near $78K after gaining about 25% in August and has held most of that rebound even as gold pulled back. ETF flows are split: · US spot BTC ETFs posted a $236.5M net outflow on Sep 1 · US spot Ether ETFs extended their inflow streak to 12 sessions, with the run totaling about $1.60B A strong jobs report would reinforce the case for a September hike. A weak one could pull the odds back, but CPI remains the final major checkpoint before the Fed decides. Which matters more for BTC over the next two weeks: jobs, inflation, or ETF flows? #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds US economic data is sending mixed signals ahead of Friday’s August payroll report. Manufacturing remained in expansion territory, but the ISM index declined from 55.6 to 54.6. July JOLTS job openings reached 7.27 million, missing the 7.31 million consensus while improving from June’s revised figure. These numbers suggest the economy is slowing at the margin without showing a clear collapse in labor demand. Markets are currently assigning roughly a two-thirds probability to a 25-basis-point September rate hike. Friday’s payroll growth, unemployment rate, wages and revisions could therefore trigger meaningful moves in Treasury yields, the dollar, equities and Bitcoin. A strong report would reinforce the case for tighter policy, while a weak report could reduce hike expectations. My view is that wage growth and prior-month revisions may matter as much as the headline payroll number. Traders should also expect the initial market reaction to reverse if the details contradict the headline.

$BTC SEPTEMBER STARTS WITH A MACRO TEST Bitcoin isn't struggling to find a direction because the market has forgotten how to move. It's because traders are waiting for answers. After the Jackson Hole remarks, expectations around September Fed policy shifted sharply. Now, this week's employment data could determine whether those expectations strengthen or begin to reverse. Several important releases are coming one after another: • JOLTS job openings • ADP employment • Initial jobless claims • Nonfarm payrolls Together, these numbers will give the market a clearer picture of whether the U.S. labor market remains resilient or is beginning to weaken. And that's where the real Bitcoin connection comes in. If employment remains stronger than expected, traders could interpret that as less urgency for easier monetary policy. That could mean: Stronger rate-hike expectations → higher Treasury yields → tighter financial conditions → more pressure on BTC and other risk assets. But if employment deteriorates meaningfully, the market could start pricing a softer Fed stance. The transmission could then move in the opposite direction: Weaker labor data → lower rate expectations → improving liquidity sentiment → potential recovery in risk assets. This is why I'm not putting too much weight on small intraday rebounds right now. A green candle before the data doesn't necessarily mean the market has turned bullish. A red candle doesn't necessarily mean the trend has collapsed. Both sides have a reason to remain cautious. Bulls don't want to chase into potentially hawkish data. Bears don't want to build oversized positions before a number that could completely change expectations. That creates the kind of environment where BTC can suddenly move hundreds or thousands of dollars without warning. And with leverage involved, those moves can become even more aggressive. For me, the priority right now is capital preservation. If you're working with limited capital, there is little benefit in going all in before a major macro catalyst.

Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering September with the market caught between strong August momentum and a much tougher macro environment. Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in August, but failed to hold the move above $80K. Now the next major catalyst is already on the calendar. The U.S. jobs report. My radar: 🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $79.4K–$80.8K resistance 🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength 🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity 🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of a September rate hike after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But that expectation can change quickly if employment data comes in weaker than expected. 0 That is why Friday's number could become the next major trigger for risk assets. A weak jobs report could reduce rate-hike expectations. Lower rate expectations could support liquidity. And that could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge $80K. But a stronger-than-expected labor report could have the opposite effect. Higher rate expectations. Higher yields. More pressure on risk assets. That is the macro battle happening underneath the chart. Technically, the structure is still clear. Buyers defended the $77K area. But sellers continue to appear around $80K. Bitcoin is therefore sitting between important support and resistance while the market waits for a catalyst. 1 There is also an interesting institutional signal. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M between August 24 and 28. Yet price still failed to break $80K. That suggests strong demand is being met by significant selling pressure. This is where $ETH becomes interesting. Ethereum ETFs also attracted around $824M during the same period, showing that institutional demand is not limited to Bitcoin. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BTCGoldCorrelation

#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds The latest US data feels mixed enough to make Friday’s payroll report even more important 👀 August ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 55.6 to 54.6. That still signals expansion, just at a slower pace. July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M—below expectations, but slightly above June’s revised figure. To me, this doesn’t look like a labor market collapsing. It looks more like demand is cooling gradually while businesses remain cautious about hiring 📊 Yet markets are still pricing roughly a 66% chance of a 25bp September hike. That means August payrolls may need to do more than simply beat or miss expectations—the details on wages, unemployment and prior revisions could matter just as much. I’m curious whether the report gives the Fed a clearer direction, or leaves us with the same uncomfortable mix: slower growth, resilient labor demand and inflation still above target.

#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds US economic data is sending mixed signals ahead of Friday’s August payroll report. Manufacturing remained in expansion territory, but the ISM index declined from 55.6 to 54.6. July JOLTS job openings reached 7.27 million, missing the 7.31 million consensus while improving from June’s revised figure. These numbers suggest the economy is slowing at the margin without showing a clear collapse in labor demand#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat

⚠️ MACRO CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING A HEADWIND FOR $BTC & $ETH Oil has surged above $95, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.81%, its highest level in nearly three years. At the same time, markets are now pricing in roughly a 67% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, a significant increase from last week. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat

🚨 BTC ISN’T WAITING FOR THE NFP — THE MARKET IS ALREADY BRACING FOR THE FED’S NEXT MOVE. The panic is starting before the data even drops. Over the past few days, one thing has become clear: Traders aren’t really trading the Non-Farm Payrolls anymore. They’re trading their expectations of what the Fed will do after the numbers come out. #DailyOrbit

Data is cooling down, so why is the market more afraid of rate hikes? #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 After several US data releases last night, the market was somewhat conflicted. The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 54.6, below expectations but still above 50; JOLTS job openings dropped to about 7.27 million, also missing market expectations, and construction spending was similarly weak. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #BroadcomDellAIResults