المنشور

The Fed decides on Wednesday. A week out, @Polymarket and @Kalshi both put a 25bp hike at 55%. That is the closest an FOMC contract has come to a coin flip this late: across 27 settled decisions since 2023, the leading outcome at the same point had a median of 96% and never fell below 79%. Even after August CPI landed on Friday morning, the 25bp hike odds moved from 57% to 80%, a major jump but still below the usual consensus. Polymarket and Kalshi in one schema, with three years of settled