#FOMCRateCallThisWeek

🚨 $BTC HAS A NEW PROBLEM: OIL Bitcoin is around $77.6K while Brent crude has surged above $107, adding fresh inflation pressure just before the Fed’s decision this week. Markets now see roughly an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Higher oil can keep inflation elevated, which makes easier Fed policy harder to justify. That puts Bitcoin and other risk assets under pressure. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

$BTC HAS A FED PROBLEM IN 3 DAYS Markets are pricing 78% chance of a Fed rate hike. Higher rates can mean tighter liquidity not exactly what $BTC needs when risk appetite is already fragile. But don’t panic over the headline. If BTC holds strong → bullish resilience. If BTC gets rejected → downside pressure could accelerate. The reaction matters more than the probability. Watch the price, not the fear.$ETH @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

Monday Morning Market Update 📊 Big week ahead so here’s what I’m watching: Stocks: Markets finished last week under some pressure, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% on the week and Nasdaq down 0.7%. This morning we're seeing more weakness, particularly in tech. Nasdaq futures are down 1.7% while S&P futures are down 0.7%. The important part: I don't think Monday morning's move should be viewed in isolation. We have a major macro catalyst coming Wednesday. The Fed: The FOMC decision is Wednesday, and the market is currently pricing roughly an 85%+ chance of a 25bps rate hike. At this point, the hike itself may not be the biggest market mover. I'm much more interested in the updated projections, dot plot and what Powell says about the path of rates going forward. One hike followed by a pause is a very different environment than the market beginning to price another tightening cycle. Inflation: Last week's CPI showed headline inflation running at 3.4% YoY, while monthly core CPI came in at +0.3%. Inflation remaining sticky while oil is back above $100 creates a difficult setup for the Fed. Higher energy prices -> more inflation pressure -> less flexibility for monetary policy. Oil: WTI is trading back above $100/barrel this morning following renewed supply concerns. This is probably one of the most important charts outside of equities/crypto right now. If oil stays elevated, inflation concerns aren't going away quickly. Crypto: Interestingly, BTC is showing some relative strength this morning around $78K (range lows) despite weakness in tech. That's something I'm watching closely. Bitcoin has recovered significantly from the $60K August lows, but Wednesday's Fed decision is an obvious volatility catalyst. For now, I'd rather react to the levels on my chart than try to predict what the Fed will do to price. Bottom line: This is one of those weeks where patience matters. We have stocks sitting near highs, oil above $100, sticky inflation, a Fed decision Wednesday and plenty of potential volatility. There is absolutely no reason to force trades ahead of major catalysts. Let the market show its hand. Protect capital. Wait for your setups. Don't chase moves because you're afraid of missing them. Plenty of opportunities will come. 🤝

Short-term holders have significantly increased their $BTC selling. Two major events are ahead: • September 15 - Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is expected • September 16 - FOMC meeting Volatility could rise sharply around these events.

Tuesday’s CLARITY Act procedural vote is widely expected to fail. An unexpected pass would be a major bullish surprise, as bearish risks are already priced in. The real test is 2AM Thursday’s FOMC decision, with nearly 90% odds of a 25bp hike. Geopolitics and energy keep inflation sticky; a single hike is no shock. The critical factor is the dot‑plot. If it signals another December hike, it will reprice higher‑for‑longer rates and hit $BTC hard.

Fed hike odds are near 87%. Sept 16 at 2PM is the moment. If delivered, it would be the first hike under Warsh and the Fed's first since 2023. After holding at 3.50%-3.75% in July with a 9-3 vote, the FOMC heads into this week almost fully priced for a 25bps hike. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, and PPI rose 5.4% YoY. Energy remains part of the pressure. Three members already dissented in favor of a hike last time. The political backdrop is loud: · Trump has renewed calls for lower rates · Hassett said the White House would accept the Fed's decision, while arguing inflation is decelerating · Several Wall Street desks shifted toward a September hike call But the bigger question is communication. Warsh has stripped back forward guidance since taking the chair, and his decision not to submit his own dot in June was an unusual break from recent Fed practice. September brings a fresh dot plot, but the statement may again leave fewer explicit hints. Markets may have to decode the press conference in real time. One contrarian read: Brookings' Robin Brooks argues a hike here may be less about classic tightening and more about anchoring the 10-year yield and restoring credibility. If that is right, the crypto impact may depend more on yields and the dollar than on the headline rate move. BTC trades around $77K, below the $80K area it failed to hold in recent attempts. US spot BTC ETFs have seen four straight sessions of outflows, even though September remains net positive so far. The rate decision matters. The dot plot and what Warsh says after may matter more. Which matters more for BTC this week: the rate decision, the dot plot, or Warsh's press conference? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Arthur Hayes said Japan’s unwinding of yen carry trades and rising French bond-market risks could pressure the Federal Reserve to expand dollar liquidity, while he expects interest rates to remain unchanged. Hayes said Maelstrom has a larger Ethereum position to capture a liquidity-driven rally. Why it matters: He views the euro-yen exchange rate as a leading indicator of potential liquidity shifts affecting crypto markets#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

$BTC / $ETH Sometimes the strongest signal isn't a huge breakout. It's how an asset behaves when the market gets uncomfortable. $BTC is holding around $77K while macro pressure is building ahead of the Fed meeting. $ETH is sitting around $2.5K and still trying to prove that its recent strength wasn't just another short-term rotation. That's what I'm watching. Not just green candles. I want to see which assets can absorb selling without completely losing structure. Anyone can look strong when everything is going up. The real information comes when the market gets tested. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

Super week is here, what is the market really trading? Many think the market is waiting for a rate hike, but the rate hike has already been mostly priced in on the charts. What is being traded now is whether September will mark the start of a new tightening cycle. If this rate hike is 25BP and the dot plot shows further tightening potential within the year, then risk assets need to be repriced.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

Wednesday is the one that matters. FOMC decision at 2pm ET, and markets are pricing a hike to 3.75-4.00% after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Everyone's focused on the number. I think the dot plot matters more. A hike that's already priced changes little. A dot plot signalling more hikes into next year is what would actually hurt. $BTC 77.8K and $ETH 2,520 are my lines. Below those, the reaction is real. Above, it's noise. Positioned or flat into Wednesday? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek