Допис

Brothers, today’s NFP reaction may have created more questions than answers. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 162K, above expectations, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. The stronger jobs data has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher again, keeping pressure on risk assets like $BTC and $ETH. But I wouldn’t immediately conclude that next week must be bearish. The bigger test is still ahead. PPI and CPI will give the market a clearer picture of where inflation is heading, followed by the FOMC decision and Powell’s guidance. If inflation remains sticky while Treasury yields continue rising, BTC could retest the $78.6K area, while ETH may revisit $2,428 and potentially $2,400. On the other hand, a meaningful CPI cooldown could quickly bring rate-cut expectations back into the conversation and help repair today’s downside reaction. My current view: The first half of next week could remain weak and volatile. Then CPI may become the catalyst that determines the next major direction. For me, $78.6K on BTC and $2,400 on ETH are the key defenses. If both levels break decisively, the bearish structure becomes much stronger. Until then, I’m not rushing to label the market a bear market. Patience > prediction.