Публикация

THE HARD PART OF THE RALLY MAY BE STARTING Bitcoin's move from roughly $63.6K to $81.4K was impressive. Nearly 28% in just over ten days completely changed market sentiment. Suddenly, the conversation moved from “Is Bitcoin recovering?” to “When does $100K come next?” And that's exactly where I think traders need to slow down. After BTC pushed above $80K on August 28, it failed to establish a sustained breakout. Instead, price reversed and returned toward the $77.5K–$78K area. That doesn't automatically mean the rally is over. But it does tell us something important: Momentum has met resistance. The market has changed psychologically. Earlier in the move, buyers were hesitant. Now, after a nearly 30% recovery, more traders are looking to chase strength. That's usually when risk management becomes more important. There is also a notable change in ETF flows. After nine consecutive trading sessions of net inflows totaling more than $3B, spot BTC ETFs recorded roughly $202M in outflows on August 28. One negative session isn't enough to call an institutional exit. But around an important resistance zone, it's worth watching whether fresh demand returns. For me, the next move isn't about predicting $100K. It's about watching what happens between $77K and $81K. If BTC holds the $77K–$78K region, consolidates and eventually reclaims $80K with stronger volume, the recent rejection could simply become a healthy reset. A clean move through $80K–$81K would then carry much more credibility. But if $77K fails and buyers can't quickly reclaim it, the market could begin looking toward $75K as the next important support. That's where the distinction between a shakeout and a deeper correction becomes clearer. I'm also paying attention to Bitcoin's changing macro identity. BTC is increasingly being traded alongside the broader macro conversation around gold, the dollar, liquidity and sovereign debt. That means the next move won't necessarily be determined by crypto sentiment alone.