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The key variable is no longer rhetoric alone, but whether sanctions and selective shipping access translate into sustained physical supply losses. Brent’s 6.4% and WTI’s 5.7% weekly gains show that markets are already assigning a higher risk premium. My read: tight diesel could become the more consequential transmission channel. If shipping curbs persist, higher energy costs may reach consumers and complicate the path for Fed policy, with knock-on effects across Treasury yields, gold and BTC. Case-by-case passage for some Iraqi tankers is not the same as normalization. Not advice, just analysis. #IranOilRiskEscalates