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DON'T CONFUSE LESS HAWKISH WITH DOVISH Bitcoin's latest strength is giving the market something to be optimistic about, but the September rate decision is far from settled. Waller's comments are conditional on one major variable: Inflation. If August inflation continues to cool, he appears more comfortable with keeping rates unchanged. If inflation accelerates again, however, the possibility of another hike remains. For crypto, that creates an important distinction. The market doesn't necessarily need immediate rate cuts to become more constructive. Even removing the possibility of further tightening can improve sentiment. But that doesn't mean liquidity suddenly becomes abundant. This is why I'm not looking at the current BTC move and saying: “September rate hike is off the table.” That's too early. The next major piece of information is the August CPI report on September 11. That data could either strengthen the current market optimism or challenge it. If CPI continues to decline, investors may become more confident that the Fed can stay on hold. That would give Bitcoin a stronger macro backdrop. But if CPI rises unexpectedly, markets may have to reassess rate expectations again. And Bitcoin doesn't trade in isolation from those expectations. Higher-for-longer policy can pressure liquidity, yields and risk appetite. A more stable or eventually easier policy environment can do the opposite. So the question isn't simply: “Will the Fed hike?” The better question is: “What will the inflation data force the Fed to do next?” That's the part that matters. For now, I'm watching BTC's price action, but I'm also keeping one eye on the macro calendar. The current rebound can continue. The bullish thesis can strengthen. But I want the data to confirm the narrative before becoming overly confident. BTC can front-run the macro story. It can't completely ignore the macro story. September still has a lot to prove. $BTC