#LaborMarketTestsWalsh

#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Após o discurso de Walsh, para onde vai o mercado? Que oportunidades temos? Assim que Walsh falou, muitas pessoas perderam a expectativa de corte de juros. O sonho do corte de juros na era Powell, para ser franco, tornou-se apenas uma ilusão passageira. Este tipo é bastante firme no tom, basicamente dizendo que a inflação não está a cair rápido o suficiente, e o Federal Reserve pode aumentar as taxas a qualquer momento. O mercado também é realista, a probabilidade de aumento em setembro disparou para mais de metade, e o sentimento mudou diretamente para um ambiente de aperto monetário. Na verdade, se você observar atentamente o mercado de ações dos EUA, verá que a crise já estava escrita. O S&P 500 acabou de ultrapassar a máxima histórica, mas as compras estão cada vez mais concentradas, e o grau de divergência entre o preço e a amplitude do mercado atingiu o recorde dos últimos trinta anos. O mais engraçado são aqueles que seguiram a onda do AI; antes até um porco podia voar, agora que esfriou um pouco, muitos passaram por uma montanha-russa extremamente emocionante nas ações de hardware — os ganhos no papel não foram realizados a tempo e logo foram devolvidos. Todos estão a perguntar, o movimento unilateral acabou, então com o que se pode ganhar dinheiro daqui para frente? Pense bem, numa oscilação em alta, o que mais se deve evitar é colocar todas as fichas numa só direção. Recentemente, conversei com alguns traders, e eles voltaram a mencionar o velho e batido "portfólio permanente" de Browne. Esta lógica é extremamente simples: colocar um quarto em ações, um quarto em obrigações de longo prazo, um quarto em Bitcoin e um quarto em dinheiro, e depois rebalancear regularmente. O mais incrível deste mecanismo é que ele força você, por meio do sistema, a comprar na baixa e vender na alta: quando os ativos disparam, vende-se um pouco; quando caem muito, compra-se para reforçar a posição.

Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering September with the market caught between strong August momentum and a much tougher macro environment. Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in August, but failed to hold the move above $80K. Now the next major catalyst is already on the calendar. The U.S. jobs report. My radar: 🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $79.4K–$80.8K resistance 🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength 🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity 🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of a September rate hike after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But that expectation can change quickly if employment data comes in weaker than expected. 0 That is why Friday's number could become the next major trigger for risk assets. A weak jobs report could reduce rate-hike expectations. Lower rate expectations could support liquidity. And that could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge $80K. But a stronger-than-expected labor report could have the opposite effect. Higher rate expectations. Higher yields. More pressure on risk assets. That is the macro battle happening underneath the chart. Technically, the structure is still clear. Buyers defended the $77K area. But sellers continue to appear around $80K. Bitcoin is therefore sitting between important support and resistance while the market waits for a catalyst. 1 There is also an interesting institutional signal. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M between August 24 and 28. Yet price still failed to break $80K. That suggests strong demand is being met by significant selling pressure. This is where $ETH becomes interesting. Ethereum ETFs also attracted around $824M during the same period, showing that institutional demand is not limited to Bitcoin. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BTCGoldCorrelation

🚨 SPACEX IS HOLDING STRONG — BUT THE REAL TEST IS COMING THIS WEEK. Here we go, brothers. 👀 There are two big things I’m watching this week. First, September 4 brings the latest U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report — and it’s the final jobs report before the Fed’s September 15 rate decision. The July numbers are still fresh: U.S. nonfarm employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while inflation is still showing s pressure.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

🔥 #LaborMarketTestsWalsh The labor market could become one of September’s biggest market catalysts. If employment data continues to weaken, expectations for easier Fed policy could rise. That could shift liquidity back toward risk assets, including crypto. $BTC needs to prove it can benefit from that rotation. The next macro print may matter more than the next headline. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

This non-farm payroll report is extremely critical. Before Friday's data release, the market will most likely continue to trade sideways. The reason non-farm payroll data can stir global markets lies in a clear transmission chain: employment data → Federal Reserve policy expectations → US dollar liquidity → risk asset prices. Simply put, it directly determines whether the Fed will "hit the brakes" or "step on the gas." #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

Walsh has made inflation his priority. Now the labor market gets a vote. July's weak payrolls and revisions suggest hiring is losing momentum, while his Jackson Hole stance pushed hike expectations higher. That creates a difficult setup: what happens if inflation stays sticky while jobs weaken? JOLTS, ADP and payrolls aren't just employment reports this week. They'll test how much economic pain the Fed is willing to accept for price stability. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh

#LaborMarketTestsWalsh This week’s labor data may tell us whether Walsh’s inflation-first stance has enough room to hold 👀 JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and August payrolls are all coming, after July payrolls fell by 23K and May–June figures were revised down by another 103K. That already points to a softer hiring picture. At Jackson Hole, Walsh emphasized that inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions aren’t restrictive and price stability should stay the priority. Markets reacted quickly, with September hike odds briefly moving from around 35% to nearly 60% 📊 What I find interesting is the tension between those two stories. The Fed may want to keep pressure on inflation, but continued labor weakness would make additional tightening harder to explain. One weak report probably won’t settle the debate. But if several labor indicators soften together, the question may shift from whether policy is restrictive enough to whether it is starting to become too restrictive.

$BTC : The Risk Signal Is Turning Red Walsh’s hawkish stance has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher. With restrictive rates likely to persist, risk assets are facing a tougher macro backdrop. Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE data could become the catalyst. Any major disappointment may trigger a sharp risk-off move. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

📊 [Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto