#LaborMarketTestsWalsh

#就业数据密集公布, a posição política de Walsh está sendo posta à prova Após o discurso de Wash, como o mercado vai evoluir? Quais oportunidades temos? Assim que as palavras de Wash começaram, ele destruiu as expectativas de muitas pessoas sobre cortes nas taxas. Todos aqueles sonhos de cortes de taxas da era Powell, para ser direto, se tornaram nuvens passageiras. Esse cara falou duro, basicamente dizendo que a inflação não está caindo rápido o suficiente e que o Fed pode aumentar as taxas a qualquer momento. O mercado é real — a probabilidade de um aumento de juros em setembro disparou pela metade, e o sentimento mudou para uma liquidez mais apertada. Na verdade, se você observar de perto o mercado de ações dos EUA, verá que a crise já está escrita em segundo plano. O S&P 500 acaba de atingir um recorde, mas as compras estão se tornando cada vez mais concentradas, com a divergência entre preço e amplitude de mercado atingindo um recorde em quase trinta anos. A parte mais engraçada são aqueles que acompanham a tendência e o hype sobre a IA. Antes, até porcos podiam voar para o céu, mas agora que o tempo de recarga esfriou um pouco, muitos viveram uma montanha-russa emocionante com ações de hardware — os ganhos não realizados no papel não tiveram chance de ser lucrados e foram imediatamente devolvidos. Todos perguntam: se o fim unilateral acabar, do que eles vão depender para ganhar dinheiro daqui para frente? Pense bem: o maior tabu nesse tipo de oscilação de alto nível é jogar todas as suas fichas em uma única direção. Recentemente, conversei com vários traders, e eles realmente mencionaram novamente o "portfólio perpétuo" ultrapassado da Brown. Essa lógica é extremamente simples: ações, títulos de longo prazo, Bitcoin e dinheiro em espécie mantêm cada um um trimestre, depois liquidam as contas e rebalanceiam. A parte mais extrema desse mecanismo é que ele usa um sistema para te forçar a vender alto e comprar barato: quando os ativos ficam vazios, venda um pouco; quando caem feio, você compra no fundo.

Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering September with the market caught between strong August momentum and a much tougher macro environment. Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in August, but failed to hold the move above $80K. Now the next major catalyst is already on the calendar. The U.S. jobs report. My radar: 🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $79.4K–$80.8K resistance 🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength 🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity 🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of a September rate hike after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But that expectation can change quickly if employment data comes in weaker than expected. 0 That is why Friday's number could become the next major trigger for risk assets. A weak jobs report could reduce rate-hike expectations. Lower rate expectations could support liquidity. And that could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge $80K. But a stronger-than-expected labor report could have the opposite effect. Higher rate expectations. Higher yields. More pressure on risk assets. That is the macro battle happening underneath the chart. Technically, the structure is still clear. Buyers defended the $77K area. But sellers continue to appear around $80K. Bitcoin is therefore sitting between important support and resistance while the market waits for a catalyst. 1 There is also an interesting institutional signal. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M between August 24 and 28. Yet price still failed to break $80K. That suggests strong demand is being met by significant selling pressure. This is where $ETH becomes interesting. Ethereum ETFs also attracted around $824M during the same period, showing that institutional demand is not limited to Bitcoin. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BTCGoldCorrelation

🔥 #LaborMarketTestsWalsh The labor market could become one of September’s biggest market catalysts. If employment data continues to weaken, expectations for easier Fed policy could rise. That could shift liquidity back toward risk assets, including crypto. $BTC needs to prove it can benefit from that rotation. The next macro print may matter more than the next headline. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

Walsh has made inflation his priority. Now the labor market gets a vote. July's weak payrolls and revisions suggest hiring is losing momentum, while his Jackson Hole stance pushed hike expectations higher. That creates a difficult setup: what happens if inflation stays sticky while jobs weaken? JOLTS, ADP and payrolls aren't just employment reports this week. They'll test how much economic pain the Fed is willing to accept for price stability. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh

🚨 Wash says "interest rate hike," trying to scare BTC off? Don't rush. Wash emphasizes inflation risk, with expectations of a rate hike in September heating up, the crypto community's first reaction is simple: Dollar strengthens → risk assets under pressure → BTC gets hit short-term. But this feels more like a macro sentiment shock, not a sudden deterioration in BTC's fundamentals.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

$BTC : The Risk Signal Is Turning Red Walsh’s hawkish stance has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher. With restrictive rates likely to persist, risk assets are facing a tougher macro backdrop. Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE data could become the catalyst. Any major disappointment may trigger a sharp risk-off move. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

📊 [Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

🚨 SPACEX IS HOLDING STRONG — BUT THE REAL TEST IS COMING THIS WEEK. Here we go, brothers. 👀 There are two big things I’m watching this week. First, September 4 brings the latest U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report — and it’s the final jobs report before the Fed’s September 15 rate decision. The July numbers are still fresh: U.S. nonfarm employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while inflation is still showing s pressure.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

MACRO HAS CHANGED THE SHORT TERM GAME The Jackson Hole message was a clear reminder that the market may have priced in easier monetary policy too quickly. The Fed didn't promise rate cuts. Instead, the focus remains firmly on inflation, employment and financial conditions, leaving the door open to tighter policy if the data demands it. Markets reacted immediately. September rate-hike expectations moved sharply higher, while Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened. That combination creates a difficult environment for crypto. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. A stronger dollar can also reduce global liquidity available for speculative markets. And when liquidity becomes tighter, the assets with the highest beta usually feel the pressure first. That's why I'm more cautious on altcoins, meme coins and heavily leveraged positions in the short term. But I wouldn't jump from "hawkish Fed" straight to "new bear market." The Fed hasn't actually delivered a rate hike. The next major data points still matter. If inflation remains stubborn and employment stays strong, markets could continue pricing a higher-for-longer environment. If inflation cools and labor-market conditions weaken, rate-hike expectations could reverse just as quickly. For BTC, the immediate priority is defending support and rebuilding momentum rather than chasing another breakout. For ETH, the same principle applies. A bounce from support is encouraging, but it needs follow through before calling the correction finished. So my current view is simple: Short-term: cautious and bearish. Medium-term: waiting for the data. The biggest mistake right now would be treating one macro event as the final verdict. Let the price confirm what the macro is telling us. If buyers can absorb the pressure and reclaim key resistance, the bullish structure can recover. If support keeps breaking while yields and the dollar continue rising, the market may need a deeper reset. For now, bulls need to prove they still have control. #WalshPolicyFramework