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The market has priced in a 25bp hike in September at about 87% to 89%, basically an open card. But HSBC raised the median rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 4.125%, and Bank of America even sees 4.185%. To translate: if the statement only hikes 25bp but the dot plot pushes the path for the next two years all the way up, that's the real killer. Long positions are currently betting on "hike then dovish," with funding rates still positive—$BTC weighted funding rate about 0.009%,