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1. ETF flows → demand If BTC/ETH ETFs keep attracting money while prices consolidate, that can indicate supply absorption. But sustained inflows matter much more than a few positive sessions. 2. CPI → Fed expectations This is probably the most immediate catalyst. Softer CPI → lower yields/DXY → stronger risk appetite → BTC/ETH potentially benefit. Hotter CPI → higher yields → pressure on crypto and tech. 3. Hormuz → oil → inflation This is the wildcard. A reduction in tensions could ease oil and inflation expectations. Prolonged disruption could do the opposite and make Fed easing more difficult. The key chain ETF flows → demand/liquidity CPI → Fed policy expectations Hormuz → oil → inflation If all three align positively, BTC could lead a broader ETH → SOL → altcoin rotation. But if CPI comes in hot or oil spikes while ETF demand weakens, the current consolidation could turn into another risk-off leg. What I'd watch first: BTC price structure + ETF flows, then Treasury yields/DXY after CPI. The real confirmation would be BTC holding its range while ETF demand improves and macro conditions turn supportive. That combination would make a breakout much more credible.