Innlegg

6 days to FOMC. CME hike odds: 60.2%. History is blunt: • Odds >40% 10 days before → hike always followed • Final pricing <60% the day before → no hike ever happened 60.2% sits in the tension zone: “history says hike, but the Fed has never acted at such low odds.” Don’t stare at 60.2% — watch the post-CPI repricing direction. Cut leverage, wait for data, guard against whipsaws.