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#Waller: August Inflation Will Determine Whether to Raise Rates in September At 8:30 PM tonight, the August non-farm payroll report, the final piece of the puzzle before the FOMC meeting. On September 3, Waller softened his stance, stating that he supports keeping interest rates unchanged if inflation continues its recent progress; he would only consider supporting a rate hike if the data is strong. Following his remarks, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 70% to 50.2%. The Reuters survey expects 56,000 to 58,000 new jobs in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. In July, non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000, and the combined revisions for May and June were down by 103,000. The ADP report showed 38,000 jobs, the weakest increase since January. Employment data has been trending colder for three consecutive months. Bank of America said that the non-farm payroll report is just an appetizer, while the CPI is the main course that will determine the September rate hike. Inflation is the core anchor of current policy. Three plays. The non-farm payroll is below 40,000, and the expectation of interest rate hikes continues to decline. BTC has the opportunity to rebound and test 79,000 to 80,000. The non-farm market is between 50,000 and 80,000, with unclear direction, and BTC continues to fluctuate. The non-farm payrolls are above 100,000, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is solid. BTC continues to be under pressure, with a downward trend of 75,000 or even 72,000. The employment data is cooling, but oil prices are still rising, Brent breaks through $95, and inflation is expanding. Of the 178 PCE sub-items, 54% increased by more than 3% year-on-year, compared to only 47% a year ago. Jobs are cold, inflation is still rising, and the market cannot set prices unilaterally. Don't bet on the data, wait until you land. Tonight's non-farm payrolls are just the appetizers$BTC