Post

Hormuz is not only a shipping constraint; it is a test of whether physical access can be separated from financial access. Iran's Aug. 29 position keeps approval central, while the temporary-lane understanding with Oman has yet to take effect. Even if some vessels can transit, U.S. maritime, oil and financial sanctions still limit sales, insurance and payment. That makes headline reopening less meaningful than sustained, financeable exports. Venezuela may add optionality over time, but repair and capital needs weaken the case for a rapid substitute. My read: energy-inflation pressure is more likely to ease through durable export flows than through a narrow transit arrangement. Not advice, just analysis. #IranUsesOilAsLeverage