Postingan

Walsh's first Jackson Hole keynote arrives with the Fed's trade-off unusually exposed: core PCE remains above 2%, yet initial jobless claims have fallen to 203K. With Schmid and Hammack emphasizing inflation risks, the key signal is not a single policy preference but whether Walsh defines a repeatable reaction function. My read is that clarity on how inflation, employment and financial conditions alter policy would matter more than a hawkish or dovish label. A vague framework could leave markets repeatedly repricing the Fed-Treasury boundary on long yields, increasing volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold and BTC. Not advice, just analysis. #WalshPolicyFramework