Publier

Waller just turned the September FOMC into a one-data-point call: hold if the August CPI on Sept 11 keeps showing disinflation, hike if it runs hot. His tell is the 3-month core gauge sliding from 4.76% to 3.05%, real progress but still shy of 2%. After five straight holds the bar to move has quietly narrowed to a single print, and anyone assuming "hold by default" may be underpricing the hawkish tail. NFA, just my read. #WallerEyesAugCPI