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#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds The latest US data feels mixed enough to make Friday’s payroll report even more important 👀 August ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 55.6 to 54.6. That still signals expansion, just at a slower pace. July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M—below expectations, but slightly above June’s revised figure. To me, this doesn’t look like a labor market collapsing. It looks more like demand is cooling gradually while businesses remain cautious about hiring 📊 Yet markets are still pricing roughly a 66% chance of a 25bp September hike. That means August payrolls may need to do more than simply beat or miss expectations—the details on wages, unemployment and prior revisions could matter just as much. I’m curious whether the report gives the Fed a clearer direction, or leaves us with the same uncomfortable mix: slower growth, resilient labor demand and inflation still above target.