Publier

Walsh's Jackson Hole message shifts the debate from whether policy is tight to whether it is tight enough. With inflation above 2%, financial conditions not restrictive and employment near full, his preference for short rates over forward guidance keeps each meeting genuinely data-dependent. The move in September hike odds from about 35% to nearly 58%, alongside a 2-year yield rise from 4.22% to 4.35%, shows markets repricing the reaction function. The weakness in stocks, gold and BTC suggests the immediate risk is less a firm September promise than a higher-for-longer uncertainty premium. Not advice, just analysis. #WalshInflationRisk