Posteo
Callistemon
Called it two days ago the drift wasn't over. Japan's 10Y just broke 3% for the first time since 1996, and it's the same oil shock (Brent $91+) feeding both this and the Fed's hike odds.
JGB yields up = the carry trade differential shrinks = unwind risk grows.
$USDJPY and $BTC are watching the same fire.
Callistemon
$USDJPY The intervention worked for about a day. Now back at 160.10 nearly erasing the entire move down to 157.40.
This is the "drifting back" Bessent flagged in his letter. Not a crisis yet, but the exact pattern that precedes one.
Carry trades don't care about your $BTC chart. They care about this one.
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