Since yesterday afternoon, oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index have rebounded, while the major US stock indices and gold have declined. The probability of an interest rate hike in October and the likelihood of future hikes have both increased. For a moment, it seemed as if all the positive factors from last week's rate hike implementation and the leaders' mutual visits had been fully realized. But in reality, setting aside ultra-short-term fluctuations, the current market rhythm is no different from last month; it’s still a pattern of rising too much followed by a pullback, and falling too much followed by a rebound. Although the probability of an October rate hike once surged past 70%, it is very likely that there will be no hike in October. There are still 34 days until the next policy meeting, enough time for two large swings up and down. If the market starts speculating on rate hike expectations falling by mid-October, there will still be two weeks afterward to pull back up. Enjoy the bubble and volatility to the fullest without scaring yourself with doubts. The main event of the China-US talks is tonight. Although, as mentioned yesterday, we shouldn’t expect too many surprises beyond expectations, a slight easing in the Middle East situation should also be reasonable.

Besides the positive news of the Iranian president and foreign minister traveling to New York, the rebound in oil prices may be related to a series of maritime incidents. According to UKMTO Notice No. 142-26: On September 23, the bulk carrier MV Cape Dao was attacked off the coast of Musandam. One crew member has been confirmed dead, and 27 crew members have been evacuated. The attackers and specific weapons have not yet been confirmed, but the attack proves that diplomatic contacts have not yet translated into improved navigation safety. $CL

After the SpaceX adjustment, the performance remains stable, but it is now at a critical point where it could go either up or down. On the upside, it could break through 160 and return to the high range after the IPO. On the downside, it could fall below 150, realizing the benefits of the adjustment and triggering an unlocking narrative, possibly even returning near the IPO price. It's still uncertain how SPCX will move next, but today SpaceX President and COO Shotwell's plan to sell over 340,000 shares worth more than $52 million is a bearish signal. Especially considering the context of the 319 million shares unlocking on the 105th day batch on 9/24 plus the Starship 14 delay, this cannot be ignored. $SPCX

The market should already be largely aware of the positive outcomes that the China-US talks can achieve. For example, Trump personally going to the airport to welcome the delegation sharply contrasts with the recent visits of Japan's Sanae Takaichi and the Iranian president to the US, which is also a key focus of media hype. After all, the dynamics of who is seeking whom remain quite clear. Currently, the market's expectations for the results of the China-US summit are: 1. Extending the Busan armistice by one year to ensure the continued suspension of rare earth controls and maintain an effective tariff cap of about 20% 2. Gradual progress in the trade committee 3. Expansion of AI dialogue, but relaxation of chip and other technology controls may be unrealistic 4. Signing large orders for Boeing aircraft, soybeans, and other agricultural products 5. Assisting the US in urging Iran to negotiate and easing control over the Strait of Hormuz The best final outcome is probably achieving headline results that exceed expectations rather than substantive results that do, but even so, this cannot simply be equated with the upside being exhausted. The real signal of fulfillment will come after the results are released, when the market decides whether it is willing to pay a higher premium for these outcomes.

Speaking of which, today WTI crude oil rebounded somewhat after touching the lower Bollinger Band and the EMA 50-day line around the 88+ level. Since President Xi has already departed, it is necessary to refer to the market trend during Trump's visit to China from May 12-15, when the market peaked before departure and began to pull back after arrival. The market always trades ahead of expectations. Now that expectations have been realized, oil prices have rebounded, and risk assets also have a need to test highs and pull back, so attention to risk is still needed. If China-US and US-Iran talks do not produce better-than-expected positive outcomes, the market may choose to take a breather $CL #

Today, Bitcoin has hit a recent new high again, especially with a strong breakout above the previous resistance level of 83-84k. At this very moment, the upward momentum continues. From the structural pattern perspective, breaking through 90k is just a matter of time, and it will probably pause and consolidate only before the psychological milestone of 100k. This rebound and upward push starting from the weekend is likely related to the easing of the Middle East situation, since other markets were closed over the weekend and couldn't quickly reflect market sentiment. Bitcoin has once again taken on the role of value discovery and risk discounting. In terms of logical transmission, BTC this time is benefiting from the chain: oil price decline → long-term interest rate decline → increased risk appetite. Moreover, when it broke through 85,000 on Monday, over $648 million worth of Bitcoin shorts were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation event at $290 million. The weekly candle closed above the 50-week moving average on Sunday, the first time in 45 weeks. Institutional players will regard this line as the dividing line between bear market cycles and bull market expansions. Since this rally is driven by expectations of yet-to-happen geopolitical easing, the results of talks this week between the US and Iran, China and the US, etc., will determine the next move. If the outcomes fall short of expectations or the positive news is fully priced in, a pullback is still possible. If there is truly substantial easing, risk markets could rise even further. $BTC

To avoid looking too bad in the midterm elections, Trump will symbolically meet with the Iranian delegation this week. If oil prices can be pushed down before the midterms, it could help salvage the situation as much as possible. Even if he loses the midterms, he cannot directly give up on the presidential election two years later. Given the Trump family's money-making methods, if the party inherits power then, it will inevitably be targeted for reckoning by the Democrats. Previously, crude oil fluctuated between 70-90. After the Houthis' actions in the Mandeb Strait, the central price level has risen by at least $10 to $80-100. If oil prices fall back to the 80 range, going long can be reconsidered. After all, the Strait is a powder keg that could explode at any time, and going long has a much better chance of winning than going short. Regarding Trump's statement about negotiating with Iran to lower oil prices after the midterms, it should be viewed cautiously. He may indeed ease tensions after the midterms since he no longer has to consider the MAGA base's stance. But at the same time, after the midterms, without concerns, he could also intensify attacks. So the rise or fall remains uncertain. $CL #特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点

Trump is meeting with the Iranian president while saying the Houthis have agreed not to fight the US. It all seems to be moving toward easing tensions, but oil prices didn't drop much today. Let's see what happens when the market officially opens tomorrow. Still, as I said before, I don't know if this means the peak has already been reached, but it looks like the best time to short $CL in the past month.

It's been a while since I wrote about $SPCX alone. Obviously, SPCX has rebounded steadily recently, and there hasn't been much buzz, so it gradually faded away. But in fact, starting today, we enter a period of high-density events again. First, the recent rise is mainly due to front-running trades ahead of the Nasdaq index weight adjustment. September 18 is the execution window for the Nasdaq weight adjustment rebalancing, especially the closing auction. September 21 is the effective date of the new weights, which take effect at the market open. September 22 is the scheduled launch date for Starship 14, but based on Starship 13's experience, the launch may be delayed or not fully successful. September 24 is the third batch unlock date, with 319 million shares unlocking. October 9 is the fourth batch unlock, again 319 million shares. Mid-October is the Anthropic IPO window, which could either siphon funds, divert attention, or even inversely price xAI. Late October is Tesla's earnings report date. October 26 is the fifth batch unlock, again 319 million shares. ... Although the additional demand from this weight adjustment will decrease after September 18, existing holdings of index funds will not automatically sell because of this. But if it is ultimately confirmed that the recent rise was caused by front-running funds and subsequent active buying cannot keep up, a drop may follow. In summary, today might be SPCX's last shining moment. If you can scalp out at above 160, you can get off first. This level is an important bull-bear dividing line plus a psychological round number.

Bitcoin is surging aggressively today amid rising oil prices, and I feel there are several reasons for this: 1. Japan's 25BP rate hike met expectations, with all negative factors priced in. Previously, funds that avoided risk due to a 50BP hike can now return. Moreover, the yen continues to depreciate despite the rate hike, further illustrating the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan this time. With the US and Japan completing their rate hikes this week, the market has fully digested the short-term negative news. 2. The SEC exemption promotes on-chain prosperity, benefiting the industry and indirectly benefiting Bitcoin, which is why the leader is taking off. 3. After previously spiking to 75k and then retracting, the chip distribution and structure favor an upward trend, with resistance only at 83-84k above. Currently, market uncertainty lies in whether Trump will resume strikes against Iran and what plans will be discussed when meeting Gulf state leaders in New York next week. However, given the current high oil prices' impact on the midterm elections, Trump probably won't escalate military actions before the midterms. If oil prices can further decline next week, it would be positive for risk markets. $BTC #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径