Market hype only lasts a few days After a few days, RH's hype will die down 0.085 rose to 0.11, a 30% increase Dropping back to 0.09 after a week is not a big problem ARB's profit sharing was hyped up in July but then fell back to the starting point Profit sharing has always existed, and without any buybacks, it all went into the project's pocket, and there are also large monthly unlocks. It's impossible for the official Twitter to announce a rise every time, otherwise it would be infinite manipulation ARB's short positions definitely need some time The positive news causes a sharp rise, no time to get in, and by the time you know it, it's the peak to catch the bag When the hype is over and no one cares, it naturally declines slowly Let's see after a week

Holding onto SPCX short positions at high levels: the valuation is too expensive, and technically there is strong resistance above 145, so there will definitely be a major correction later. Storage is currently in a weak consolidation: still bottoming out. Referencing BTC's bottoming pattern around 60,000, buy a little each time it dips and just hold. BTC has risen too much recently: a shakeout is expected. To be clear, anything above 72,000 is normal; those who bought at the very bottom should definitely hold. $SPCX $SKHY $BTC #SPCX #Hynix #BTC

To be honest, yesterday the group was flooded with CA flying around, and short-term speedrun demons like JINQIAN and Rabbit brought back the familiar and terrifying atmosphere of the bull market's end cutting leeks. Many newcomers blindly rushing in also got on many zeroed-out trains. But actually, there’s no need to panic, the bull is still here: We are now in the first stage of the early bull market, where capital is quite hungry. Those greedy, irrational hot money will FOMO in, giving the conspiracy groups and meme coin issuing teams a large window to do mischief. After all, they are too familiar with the script of changing worldviews by pumping the market, so it feels very unpleasant, with the familiar mess of shit, piss, fart, and all kinds of random coins flying around. The worst part is, at this time, most people see legitimate DeFi protocols and innovative application tokens being drained and pressured, and even top coins like the first and second dragons inevitably get sucked dry overnight. But this does not mean these random coins can represent everything about this round of the RH chain Summer. Looking back at previous waves like inscriptions and AI Agent hype, it was almost always pure MEME coins like ORDI, Goat, and Act that performed first, and only later did projects like Runes, Virtuals, Arc, and PING emerge—these carry technical aesthetics, have stronger sustainability, and grander narratives to take responsibility for the hype. After all, serious money and serious developers are often moved by stories that at least look legitimate. Therefore, I advise my followers that during the fierce PVP phase of the early bull market, the wisest move is not to blindly rush or gamble, unless you are an invincible prodigy P player. For most inexperienced newcomers, it’s a better choice to lay ambush for assets with strong consensus, solid technical fundamentals, and explosive potential in the future. It’s very likely that "they" will remain dormant for a long time, and they will probably continue to be drained and decline stealthily. But, but, but, when the random coins can no longer fly and a large number of retail investors have been bruised and educated by the market, only these kinds of projects—those with stronger sustainability—will drive the real main upward wave of the bull market.

Bitcoin Pulled from 62,900 to 79,000, I originally thought it was just a normal short squeeze. Now I realize, it's not a bull market start, it's targeting shorts like us. The logic is actually very simple. For exchanges, the best outcome for retail investors is only one: losing everything. The moment money is deposited, it already belongs to the exchange owners; the rest is just a matter of time. And every dollar we make shorting is forcibly extracted from this time issue—money that should have gone into the exchange owners' pockets but didn't. There are roughly three types of shorts in the whole bear market: 1. At the bull market top and bear market start, going all-in and holding steady, safe; 2. As the bear market progresses, adding to positions with floating profits, risky; 3. As the bear market progresses, chasing shorts at lower levels, extremely risky, possibly already wiped out. So this wave is not the market correcting itself, nor the start of a bull market, but the house collecting debts.

2026.9.3 Early BTC/ETH/XAU/SNDK Trading Opportunity Analysis The market wiped out 280 million USD overnight, with 104,869 people going bankrupt and losing everything; the total amount didn't increase much, but the number of people increased by 30,000 to 40,000 compared to before. The market is accelerating its reshuffle, concentrating chips more. The more thoroughly chips are washed and concentrated, the more favorable it is for the market continuation! BTC support/resistance levels: 87550/85165/75475/78425/71500 Intraday has been consolidating with shrinking volume; a deep dip below 76600 tonight is an opportunity to go long once more; ETH support/resistance levels: 2750/2400/2225/2100 At 2345, continue to wait and see if an opportunity arises; XAU went long the night before last, was trapped during the day yesterday, and took profit directly last night. Now it surprisingly stands above 4400+, even the 1h/2h bulls still have fuel, so no shorting today; a pullback aiming to reach yesterday's price is unlikely today; SNDK has been fluctuating around 1500 for the past few days. If it fails to stabilize effectively above 1600+ after a spike tonight, it may test support around 1450 with another drop; pay close attention tonight; Operational advice does not constitute any investment basis: Last night’s minor non-farm payroll was below expectations, another typical case of much noise but little effect. Tomorrow night’s major non-farm payroll expectations are also bearish. Beware of manipulative smokescreens by market makers; rely on indicator signals. News and policy factors are uncontrollable! #USStock Gold web3 Trading Opportunities

ETH is suppressed by the descending trendline, with both highs and lows decreasing, forming a volatile downward structure. The 2404 box support bottom was broken, creating a lower low; follow the trend to short on the rebound. After a golden cross appeared below the MACD zero line, it immediately turned into a death cross; the rebound strength is weak and the signal is not obvious. It retests the 2365 support and oscillates upward, forming a small V-shaped rebound. On the 1H chart, the first bearish candle closed as a doji, followed immediately by a gravestone doji, then two solid bearish candles with volume, showing strong bearish momentum. The third bearish candle closed as a hammer, indicating a bottom rebound and a bullish naked K signal. The previous 2404 box bottom support has turned into resistance; if it pulls back above this level again, go long following the trend on the right side. Light position entry at 2365 to go long and catch the rebound, with a stop loss at 2306 and targets near 2422 and 2465 $ETH

$BTC #Bitcoin [Long Position Plan and Common Rising Range] 1. Position Update - Remaining 25% long position stopped out at $77,510 - No short position entered at $77,000. The alarm went off but I was too tired and just went to sleep. Because only when in good condition can one trade well - Currently no position - The current entry position is not looking good 2. Trading Plan and Common Rising Range - As shown in the chart below, if a wedge forms, plan to enter long during wave e - The common range is the first or second white box - At that time, partially take profits on the sides, set entry price stop loss for the rest - After the wedge, if the high point rises, short at the end of the main wave 5 - Or if wave e breaks down after the wedge, proceed with wave C-c. Then, after C-c ends, the main rising wave 5 will appear, so plan to go long (regard the wedge as wave C-a)

$BTC Last night, the Nasdaq dropped -1.03%, the S&P -0.71%; today the 10Y US Treasury yield briefly surged to 4.81%, and Brent crude oil rose to around $95. Oil prices → inflation → rate hike expectations, this chain is re-pressuring valuations. BTC is still fluctuating around 78,000, the key point is that the latest net inflow into the US spot ETF is about $217 million, indicating that institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn. Currently, BTC is more resilient than the Nasdaq, but the real breakthrough condition is not sentiment, but the 10Y US Treasury yield stopping its rise first. If US Treasuries peak, 80,000 is worth chasing; If US Treasuries hit 5%, all overvalued assets need to be recalculated.

Exclusive Perspective｜Reminder of Several Important Data Points: The Real Big Picture Is Far From Turning Bullish The market has given several very important signals these past two days. Let's start with the US stock market. US stocks continued to plunge last night, and it’s no surprise that the crypto market was dragged down along with it. Because from my big-picture framework, the US stock market is already at a position that requires adjustment. Why could it hold up in Q3? I said months ago: Institutional funds won’t dump the market all at once in a single day. So Q3 was more like maintaining a high level with repeated tugging, giving large funds time to exit. Structurally, the US stock market’s high point is increasingly approaching a double top pattern. My judgment remains: It can hold in September, but pressure will significantly increase in Q4. The truly bigger risk is in 2027. The macro environment is also unfriendly. Inflation issues haven’t been fully resolved, and the risk of interest rates staying high or even rising again can’t be ignored; the war situation hasn’t improved significantly, and policy uncertainty remains. So the external environment for the entire Q4, I still define as: Relatively harsh. This is why I have consistently emphasized: We are not currently waiting for a sustained bull market lasting one or two years. We only trade by month, only by quarter, only certain-stage rebounds. After the rebound, rest for the remaining time. ⸻ The second, even more important indicator: The annual lines of BTC and ETH. I have always said, this year we must first respect two words: Bear market. Especially BTC, the current annual-level adjustment, in my view, is far from complete. So my judgment on BTC going forward remains unchanged: Around 58,000 still needs to be reconfirmed. And if the risk asset environment continues to deteriorate in Q4 and beyond, I don’t believe 58,000 will necessarily hold. Levels of 50,000 or even lower must be included in the scenario in advance. Here, I wouldn’t attribute all reasons to macro factors. Macro is often just the most convenient excuse used by major players and institutions when manipulating the market. What truly determines the big trend is: K-line structure, annual line position, overbought degree, and volume. Overbought conditions that need correction will ultimately be corrected. ⸻ So now the two big trends that truly cannot be ignored are: First, the annual-level high pressure of the US stock market. Second, BTC’s annual line suppression this year. If these two trends don’t truly reverse, the crypto market will find it very difficult to break away from the entire risk asset environment and independently enter a long-term bull market. So my big direction remains: Continue to treat Q4 with bear market thinking. Don’t be prematurely optimistic about 2027 either. Truly worth heavy investment opportunities don’t come every day. Be patient. Wait for the monthly line to give an opportunity, trade the monthly line. Wait for the quarterly line to give an opportunity, trade the quarterly line. When the market comes, trade aggressively for a while; when it’s gone, rest. For me, this is the most important trading discipline in a bear market.

Keep following #Bitcoin and crypto market data: On Tuesday, September 1, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $236.5 million, marking a net outflow again after Monday's net inflow. Among them, IBIT had a net outflow of $201.2 million, accounting for 82.2% of the single-day net outflow. Considering last Friday's and yesterday's situations, a single-day net outflow cannot prove a trend reversal; continued attention is needed to see if subsequent funds maintain net outflows. Single-day net outflows, such as last Friday, are likely fund adjustments, especially when net inflows are overly concentrated in IBIT, making it more likely that a single channel's funds are adjusting. Next, ETF flows on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are crucial. If ETFs continue to have net outflows, it means the current BTC price has lost major fund support. Crypto market data: Market cap changes show BTC's share significantly increasing, with market risk preference concentrated on BTC, overall showing a cautious state. Trading volume slightly increased, with the largest change being a clear increase in ETH trading volume, indicating stronger turnover competition. Funds saw a net inflow of 400 million, with USDC having a net outflow of 303 million, and USDT still showing a small net outflow. Summary for today: ETF data on Tuesday shows net outflow. Combined with yesterday's crypto fund situation, Tuesday was an opportunity for concentrated fund withdrawal. Today, BTC price rebounded, and crypto funds simultaneously had net inflows, making it very likely that ETFs will see net inflows. The key focus going forward is the sustainability of one-way fund inflows. Whether ETFs or crypto funds, once sustained net inflows or net inflows occur, they are important factors that will change the short-term trend. Overall, whether ETFs or crypto funds, they have shifted from continuous net inflows last week to frequent switching between net outflows and net inflows this week. This means short-term bulls and bears are competing, market confidence is declining, and this week will be an important short-term window to decide direction!