井蛙不可语海
井蛙不可语海
👑青蛙𝕏
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As an 8-year veteran trader, let me tell you
Meme coins can make money, and contracts can also be played to make money
But you must follow these points
【No bottom fishing】
【No top guessing】
【Enter on the right side】Clear trend reversal
【Set stop loss properly】Within 5%
【No heavy positions】Leverage below 3x
【No revenge trades】Do not reopen after stop loss
【Pay attention to news】Easy to form one-sided trends
【Watch funding rates】Too high funding rates are not suitable for shorting
Latest statistics of meme coins with large volatility
$LAB Circulation rate 32.2%
$RAVE Circulation rate 25.2%
$ALLO Circulation rate 24%
$ZAMA Circulation rate 20%
$PIEVERSE Circulation rate 27.4%
$KAITO Circulation rate 24.1%
$ZBT Circulation rate 24.4%
$ESP Circulation rate 17.2%
$BEAT Circulation rate 30.9%
$LA Circulation rate 19.3% Circulation rate 19.3%
$UB Circulation rate 25%
$BSB Circulation rate 23.6%
$BILL Circulation rate 24.2%
$AEON Circulation rate 18.8%
$ACH Circulation rate 20%
$RE Circulation rate 15.9%
$SOON Circulation rate 33.8% $CAP Circulation rate 15.6%
$ACU Circulation rate 32.4%
$BREV Circulation rate 25%
$MMT Circulation rate 20.4%
$HOME Circulation rate 42%
$UP Circulation rate 12.5%
$PROS Circulation rate 13.5%
$COAI Circulation rate 18.8%
$KGEN Circulation rate 19.8%
$GRVT Circulation rate 11.43
$OFC Circulation rate 22.7%
$LIGHT Circulation rate 10.2%
$AT Circulation rate 23%
$ENSO Circulation rate 16.1%
$H Circulation rate 19.9%
$O Circulation rate 16%
$EDEN Circulation rate 39.8%
$ACU Circulation rate 32.7%$APR Circulation rate 27.7%
$ROBO Circulation rate 22.3%
Statistics of more active meme coins
$GIGGLE
$PIPPIN
$ORDI
$SATS
$MUBARAK
$ACT
Pinned
$BICO is the next $LAB (how many people have been buried... for these core assets $HYPE, $WLD, $ENA, $ONDO, $INJ, $SEI, $TIA, $CORE, $PYTH, $TAO, $FET, $JUP, $EIGEN, $RENDER, $OKB).
The core of future competition will also shift from market hype to real usage.
As for $SLX, $LAYER, $APR, $PIPPIN, $LIGHT, $COMP, $GPS, $LAB, $CHIP, $BEAT, $BSB, $RAVE, $MRVL, $H, $DOGE, $ZEC, $ALLO, $PARTI, $HMSTR, $HOME, $OFC,
whoever can continuously attract capital will be the one to achieve higher valuations
Changes in Market Structure
Compared to the "10·10" event in 2025, the current market structure has undergone significant changes. ETF funds have become the marginal pricing force, replacing the previously retail-leveraged dominated market structure. This means:
Downside is relatively limited: Institutional funds are constrained by compliance and risk control, so they will not panic sell like retail investors.
Volatility remains high: Concentrated redemptions of ETFs can still cause significant price shocks.
Altcoins continue to be under pressure: Funds are further concentrating on Bitcoin and Ethereum, while altcoin liquidity continues to decline.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Macro headwinds: U.S. Treasury yields suppress risk assets
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is also facing pressure from rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. In September, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to around 5.35%, hitting a 24-year high.
Ethereum is unique in that it faces a double squeeze: as a crypto asset, it bears the pressure of a broad risk asset pullback; as a staked asset (about 2.2% APR), its "yield competitiveness" is surpassed by the risk-free interest rate. $ETH $BTC $ZEC
Key Price Levels and Scenario Analysis
Support Below
● $2,400–$2,420: Recent strong support area, also near the lower Bollinger Band.
● $2,359: Previous low; breaking below this will further open downside space.
● $2,137–$2,138: Near the 200-day moving average, an important long-term bullish defense line.
Resistance Above
● $2,533–$2,555: Short-term key resistance, with the 50-day moving average around $2,555–$2,559.
● $2,625–$2,757: Mid-term resistance range; a breakout could accelerate upward movement.
● $3,000: Psychological barrier and an important signal level for institutional re-entry. $ETH $BTC $ZEC
Key Price Levels and Scenario Analysis
Support Below
● $80,000–82,000: The lower edge of the recent trading range and an important short-term bullish defense.
● $79,000: The next support level if $80,000 is breached.
● $75,000: Near the 200-day moving average; if the monthly close is below this level, it will officially end the uptrend that started in August.
Resistance Above
● $85,000: Short-term key resistance; breaking through may open up upward potential.
● $87,000–90,300: The target price range for October according to most analysts.
● $105,000: Long-term reasonable valuation given by Morgan Creek founder Mark Yusko based on Metcalfe's Law.
● $113,000: Citigroup's 12-month target price.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC

Leverage Liquidation: Deleveraging Is Not Over
In the liquidation events around October 10, approximately $1.05 billion long positions were forcibly closed, accounting for over 90% of the total liquidations at that time. Although the scale of this liquidation is much smaller than the 2025 "10·10" event (measured by unit price drop, the leverage liquidation intensity is only about one-ninth of last year), it still cleared the leveraged buying that had driven the previous rally.
Currently, market financing rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are paying longs, and the leverage structure is rebalancing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Ethereum is currently in a "fundamentally strong but short-term pressured" state. The ETF redemption wave is essentially an arbitrage liquidation driven by macro interest rates, rather than a rejection of the Ethereum ecosystem by institutions. On-chain data—L2 growth, DeFi dominance, RWA expansion, staking scale—all indicate a healthy network fundamental.
In the short term, $2,400 is an important psychological and technical support level. If it can stabilize here and rebound above $2,550, a technical recovery rally will begin. In the medium term, the Glamsterdam upgrade mainnet activation and positive ETF fund flows will be key catalysts. The long-term logic remains intact—Ethereum’s moat as a smart contract platform ecosystem continues to deepen, but the short-term path is constrained by the macro liquidity cycle.
For investors, rather than being troubled by daily ETF outflow numbers, it is better to focus on whether futures premiums recover and whether U.S. Treasury yields have peaked—these are the real variables determining Ethereum’s next market cycle. $ETH $BTC $ZEC
In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, and the September meeting minutes showed that most officials expect another rate hike before the end of the year. The CPI data released on October 14 showed the fastest increase since April, further boosting expectations for rate hikes, and the US dollar index rose to its highest level since May 2025.
For zero-yield assets like Bitcoin, rising interest rates and a stronger dollar directly reduce their appeal. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury is at a 24-year high, and the trend of funds flowing from high-risk assets to fixed-income products continues. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade was activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, including 18 EIPs, supporting a block gas limit of about 200 million (3.3 times the current mainnet), which will significantly improve the performance and user experience of L1 and L2. The mainnet activation time will be the next important catalyst.
On October 14, ETF net inflows reached $24.8 million, ending nine consecutive days of outflows. If the net inflow trend can be maintained in the next 1–2 weeks, it will confirm the re-entry of institutional funds.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate recently fell below 0.03 for the first time, hitting the lowest point since this market cycle began. Whether this ratio can stabilize around 0.03 will determine Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin.
Whether the 10-year US Treasury yield can retreat from the high of 5.35% will directly affect Ethereum's valuation pressure. If yields peak and fall, Ethereum as a "yield-bearing crypto asset" will regain attractiveness. $ETH $BTC $ZEC
In early October, Bitcoin experienced a period of intense volatility. Around October 10, the market saw massive leveraged liquidations, with a single-day liquidation amount exceeding $1.9 billion, marking one of the largest liquidation days in crypto industry history. Subsequently, the price strongly rebounded on October 13, breaking through $84,000 intraday, with gains exceeding 2.8% at one point. However, after the US September CPI data exceeded expectations on October 14, the price came under pressure again, falling back to around $81,700.
From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded over 30% in 60 days since the low of about $57,800 in June 2026, but it still remains significantly below its all-time high. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
