tvbee
tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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After the Korean stock market circuit breaker and SK Hynix's original stock dropped 11% on the same day, $SKHY premium surged to 52.5%.
US liquidity is still somewhat better; in the past two days, the decline in Micron has been decreasing.
Planning to buy a TradingView membership in November, so I can share my own charts then.
For today, I can only share the code first: NASDAQ:SKHY*10/(KRX:000660/FX_IDC:USDKRW)-1
US CPI exceeded expectations, global stock markets are all falling, with less than a quarter of countries' stock markets rising.
South Korea fell the most, down 7.57%, triggering a circuit breaker today. Next was the Nikkei at -4.90%.
Mainland China's A-shares were not spared either, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.59% and the Shenzhen Composite down 2.43%.
The influence of the US is still too great. Let's see how the US stock market opens tonight.
The bad news is known: the CPI exceeded expectations.
The consolation is that the expectation of no rate hike in October, although it dropped from 82% to 58.5%, is still higher than the probability of a rate hike.
The good news is $STRC did not fall, currently priced at $99.9. This means the true end of the panic period for microstrategy, BTC, and crypto has arrived.
A big bull market requires macro liquidity (such as the rate cuts and QE from 2020 to 2021), which is clearly not met now.
A small bull market needs some positive news (for example, in 2019 China said it would develop blockchain, Facebook planned to launch the stablecoin Libra), or at least no looming risks, which is also clearly not met now.
The conclusion is that the bear market is over, but the bull market hasn't come. It might be a "monkey market," although the traditional financial sector doesn't have this term. But crypto itself is unconventional, even quite strange...
Brother Feng's strategy remains to be an LP in US stocks, and to trade altcoins he favors in waves. If the market is not good, it's suitable for learning; he plans to seriously study grid trading because a volatile market might be more suitable for grids.
As for US stocks, now it's earnings season, so wait for the earnings reports before making further decisions.
New York Fed President Williams' dovish remarks
Williams' role is quite special, as he has a certain degree of relative independence.
He is the only FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) member who is not a member of the Federal Reserve Board.
He is a regional Fed president but the only permanent voting member in the Fed's decision-making.
Williams believes there might be one more rate hike this year, but no further hikes will be needed next year.
This is already very dovish; the wording for a rate hike is "possible," while the wording for no rate hike is "not needed."
Especially with Wednesday night's CPI data, which Feng previously predicted would not exceed expectations, particularly the core CPI monthly rate expected at 0.6%, possibly lower than expected.
Williams' dovish remarks, combined with potentially lower-than-expected CPI data, might trigger a small rebound.
But Feng will not go long, no more gambling, tired. Added some altcoins and $SKHY spot positions.
Something's wrong, storage stocks are collectively falling.
SK Hynix -4.52%,
$SNDK -7.09%,
$MU -4.55%
Checked and only found related news that ChangXin Memory announced the next-generation 4F² DRAM, planning to launch DDR5 server memory by the end of the year.
Logically, both SK Hynix and Micron have DRAM businesses, yet pure NAND flash SanDisk fell the most.
The key is ChangXin Memory itself fell even more than SK Hynix and Micron, down 5.22%.
This environment is suitable for coin-margined swing trading
For USD-margined swing trading, buy low and sell high to earn the spread. For coin-margined swing trading, sell high and buy low to earn more coins.
Buy 1000 at 0.75, sell 500 at 1.19, then buy 545 at 1.05. The total cost remains basically 750, but the number of coins increases. The average cost decreases.
Exchange cost calculation =
(0.75*1000 + 1.05*545) / (1000 + 545) = 0.856
Additionally, profit (1.19 - 0.75) * 500 = 220
But Brother Feng's method = (0.75*1000 - 1.19*500 + 1.09*545) / (1000 - 500 + 550) = 0.713
Although this does not affect actual profit and loss, the holding cost is lower, and Brother Feng's mindset is better during a downturn.
The big trend is that the bear market has lasted a year, especially altcoins may be suppressed for more than a year, with upward demand.
However, factors like US-Iran tensions, oil prices... interest rate hikes, US debt... will provide some reasons for short-term declines.
So reduce positions near relative highs, don't be too greedy, and most likely you can buy back.
Currently, except for major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and platform tokens, Brother Feng has been holding $DBR. Recently, he also started positions in $SUI and $LINEA. Also holding the airdropped XRP ecosystem's $XDP without selling.
Brother Feng's personal plan is to gradually increase his coin holdings through this coin-margined swing trading method, waiting for the big trend to arrive. Although there may not be a big trend in the short term, what is meant to come will come
Trump shifted the issue of rising long-term bond yields onto Biden, which may not be just shirking responsibility.
During the pandemic, the U.S. government directly sent money to American citizens multiple times, with the funding source likely mainly coming from increased issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds.
┈➤ Short-term U.S. Treasuries
The T-Bill shown in the chart refers to short-term U.S. Treasuries with maturities of 1 year or less (including 1 year). From around April to December 2020, there was a large increase in issuance, followed by a return to normal levels. This coincided with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and short-term Treasury yields also declined accordingly.
Around August 2023, the Federal Reserve stopped raising rates, and the Treasury Department again began large-scale issuance of short-term Treasuries, a trend that has continued to the present. Because new debt is borrowed to repay old debt, combined with the high costs brought by high interest rates, short-term debt continues to be issued in increasing amounts.
┈➤ Medium-term U.S. Treasuries
T-Notes are medium-term U.S. Treasuries with maturities from 1 to 10 years (including 10 years). From about November 2020 to November 2021, there was a slight increase in issuance.
Since the previously heavily issued short-term Treasuries matured one after another, the Treasury's repayment pressure increased. Interest costs raised the Treasury's expenditures, so medium-term Treasuries were issued to cover part of the short-term Treasury costs.
┈➤ Long-term U.S. Treasuries
T-Bonds are long-term U.S. Treasuries with maturities over 10 years. From about June 2020 to August 2022, there was a large increase in issuance.
Therefore, the reason we see a rapid rise in long-term Treasuries is a hidden risk planted during Biden's term.
The fundamental cause of the long-term bond issue is not Trump. In fact, in the first half of 2025, with DOGE's cost-saving measures combined with tariff revenue increases, the trend of U.S. Treasury issuance is declining.
Demand for 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may be increasing, but...
This view differs somewhat from that of Frank's teacher. Frank believes that the subscription multiple for 30-year U.S. Treasuries is 2.54, higher than the average of previous issuances, which indeed suggests that demand for 30-year Treasuries might be growing.
However, the voting multiple in October was lower than in September. Moreover, the reference value of the investment multiple is generally limited, since a lot of funds may bid at very high yields, but these are still counted in the total subscription amount.
In reality, the winning bid yields are basically close to the pre-issuance yields, with a difference of only 0.001 percentage points, which can be ignored.
Observing the yields on 30-year U.S. Treasury issuances, they still show an upward trend, and the increase is accelerating.
Therefore, the risks associated with U.S. Treasuries should not be overlooked.
This potential black swan in U.S. Treasury bonds is showing some positive signals in the short term.
First, as explained by Professor Frank, the winning yield in the 10-year Treasury auction is lower than the pre-issuance yield.
Here's a basic fact: U.S. Treasuries are issued through auctions. Participants bid by yield; the more participants there are, the less favorable it is for buyers, and the lower the yield.
A winning yield lower than the pre-issuance yield indicates strong buying power in the Treasury auction.
Another point is the price of gold. Both gold and U.S. Treasuries are considered safe-haven assets, so over the long term, their prices move in the same direction, meaning gold prices and Treasury yields move inversely. As shown in the chart.
However, in the past two days, gold prices and Treasury yields have moved in the same direction, especially yesterday when Treasury yields were low (Treasury prices rose) while gold prices fell. This suggests that funds may be shifting from gold to Treasuries.
The Treasury auction and the flow of funds from gold to Treasuries are clearly positive for Treasuries. With demand for Treasuries increasing, the upward trend in yields has at least temporarily eased.
Trump renaming AI to SI is definitely not a whim
This industry might be related to the fate of the United States. The US is currently facing a problem with its national debt.
The rise in US debt yields is due to two reasons:
The first reason is inflation expectations, especially the long-term US debt yields, which are related to inflation expectations. In the future, as the dollar depreciates, US debt will naturally depreciate as well.
The second reason is the rapid expansion of US debt, while domestic and foreign demand for US debt cannot grow at the same rate, leading to an oversupply of US debt and a drop in prices.
Therefore, Trump encourages the AI/SI industry, partly to maintain the US's leadership in this sector and strengthen global confidence in the US, thereby increasing international demand for US debt.
On the other hand, from the prosperity of the AI/SI industry, the US Treasury can directly obtain more tax revenue. Increased tax revenue helps reduce the supply of US debt.
From Trump's personal perspective, as a wealthy individual, he would also favor AI/SI because it can convert capital into intellectual and physical labor. This will gradually replace labor with high welfare costs. It should be noted that AI/SI has no unions to protect rights...
In contrast, ordinary people will face competition from AI/SI and other natural persons, making future income increasingly difficult.
Moreover, AI/SI is not zero cost. Wealthy people use capital to acquire AI/SI, then create various products and services. Why should these be free for ordinary people to consume?
Trump renaming AI to SI, well, this time it's better! What was originally "cancer" is now directly changed to "death."
