陈桂林谈交易
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You helped me get out of a loss, and I still have to be grateful, right?
陈桂林谈交易
Is watching important? Yes, but not that important, because it's just one part of the entire trading process.
Look at this chart, it was said very early, but to be honest.
I didn't hold any of these altcoins, not to mention before this round started I was still trying to go long on $TAO.
In this round, besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, I actually made the most profit on doge. Although the pull was small, it was stable, and stability means finding the right position to take a large position.
The highest multiplier this round was buying at 0.4 and selling at 1.1 on Niulai, nearly tripling, but at most I only dared to buy 15,000U, so the total profit was just over 20,000U; similarly, I don't need more than 200,000U to open a single Ethereum position, 10% is also 20,000U profit, but that requires much more courage, even far from enough courage.
A correct trade is not about backtesting after seeing the price rise: what would have happened if I had gone long then;
but about checking if the entry timing was right at that moment? If not, is there enough faith to hold on? If you truly believed but the faith was in garbage, what would happen?
Money is limited, faith is limited, opportunities are unlimited;
The bull market is too FOMO, everyone shouts too much, I think what’s most needed is calmness;
So, all shout trades without position should be treated as 10U;
For example: look, Guilin shouted a trade that tripled and earned 20U, isn’t that less anxious?
Is watching important? Yes, but not that important, because it's just one part of the entire trading process.
Look at this chart, it was said very early, but to be honest.
I didn't hold any of these altcoins, not to mention before this round started I was still trying to go long on $TAO.
In this round, besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, I actually made the most profit on doge. Although the pull was small, it was stable, and stability means finding the right position to take a large position.
The highest multiplier this round was buying at 0.4 and selling at 1.1 on Niulai, nearly tripling, but at most I only dared to buy 15,000U, so the total profit was just over 20,000U; similarly, I don't need more than 200,000U to open a single Ethereum position, 10% is also 20,000U profit, but that requires much more courage, even far from enough courage.
A correct trade is not about backtesting after seeing the price rise: what would have happened if I had gone long then;
but about checking if the entry timing was right at that moment? If not, is there enough faith to hold on? If you truly believed but the faith was in garbage, what would happen?
Money is limited, faith is limited, opportunities are unlimited;
The bull market is too FOMO, everyone shouts too much, I think what’s most needed is calmness;
So, all shout trades without position should be treated as 10U;
For example: look, Guilin shouted a trade that tripled and earned 20U, isn’t that less anxious?
Gained another life lesson.
Don't eat seafood at roadside stalls in tourist spots; if you must eat crab, mark it and have it steamed.
Last night I craved crab, so I found a roadside stall and ordered spicy stir-fried crab;
When picking, the crab was big and round; when eating, I seriously suspected the vendor swapped the crab I picked!
But without evidence, I could only grumble behind the scenes and painfully finish it 😏
Although at checkout I forcibly converted the exchange rate to USD to console myself that it was only a few hundred USD, I was still genuinely upset for five minutes 😭
I think the crypto space is in hard mode because I mainly trade contracts of major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and XRP;
Some friends think the crypto space is currently in giveaway mode, probably because they hold tokens like Near and Uni, which is not contradictory.
Given my current trading system and skill level, swimming around in altcoins carries a higher risk of drowning than making money; so I choose a conservative approach.
Finally, my view that Bitcoin is at the end of the first major upward phase of the overall rally remains unchanged.
陈桂林谈交易
After yesterday's intense brain battle, the conclusion reached can't really be said to just resemble the viewpoint of that crazy guy's post—it can be said to be exactly the same.
1. Yesterday I tried shorting for a while, but then I thought, I'm already pretty bad at this, making some profit on longs is good enough, no need to try to play both sides, so I closed the position;
I didn't look carefully yesterday, but today I glanced at the screenshots, and these numbers sound quite catchy: 2678, 2666, 321;
2. Since I don't really want to short, or rather, don't want to short for now, or can't do it well, the only thing I can do is optimize my position size, because I have ideas and thoughts, and not doing anything feels off;
3. Yesterday oil was like that, the US dollar index was like that, the 10-year bond was like that, Bitcoin was still like that, and some altcoins even more so, which puzzled me a lot, forcing me to ask the divine question! (See image 2)
Then I thought of a saying: topping out is a process. If the big brother can't push higher, and the little brother hasn't finished rotating, then it's reasonable for the big brother to tough it out to protect the little brother, after all: "Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is silver";
4. What needs reflection is that I've been a bit too lucky recently, which led to: ① worse ability to hold positions, wanting to make money as soon as I enter, greedy for instant profits, unhappy with any pullback; ② feeling floaty—I guess this floatiness means I have to lose all the profits made from this second wave of tactical positions before I can come back down to earth;
5. At this market position, whatever happens makes sense. If the US and Iran bring some good news, the market will pump online and trigger short stops. If US-Iran relations stay calm, the market will just move sideways painfully. If bad news comes, there might be a bloodbath;
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tech (semiconductors) might choose to digest sideways if no bad news comes from US-Iran or elsewhere, but if Bitcoin moves sideways, that's not good for altcoins. After all, Guilin said time doesn't favor altcoins; once rotation finishes, we just have to deal with it as before;
6. Guilin announces again: after a brief few days of rally, the market might enter a difficult mode again. This difficult mode interval is too close to the previous one, which is not a good sign (indicating the bulls...);
7. The first wave of bull protection, Guilin defended from 60,000 to nearly 90,000, Bitcoin rose nearly 50%, truly the top demon king of the crypto world. In the future, I need to focus more on the community, unless I can't help myself and rant again. For private community, please see the pinned post on my profile.
Happy Mid-Autumn Festival~
I've been watching this stock for over a month, and in crypto terms, it feels like strong control of the supply;
98% of the chips held, 2% circulating, you get it?
$LITE
陈桂林谈交易
There is light at the core; under such heavy external pressure, being able to remain so resilient makes it feel like any positive news would easily break through the resistance. Observing these few tokens, they truly show strong control at a glance;
The crypto market is currently most likely at the tail end of the first phase, but the light at the core may just be at the beginning stage;
Capital flows like water…
There is light at the core; under such heavy external pressure, being able to remain so resilient makes it feel like any positive news would easily break through the resistance. Observing these few tokens, they truly show strong control at a glance;
The crypto market is currently most likely at the tail end of the first phase, but the light at the core may just be at the beginning stage;
Capital flows like water…
陈桂林谈交易
Qualcomm $QCOM
1. The surge in January and April lifted the stock out of the consolidation range;
2. Then it completed a weekly-level MACD zero line retest;
3. Now, after retesting the zero line, it has started forming an upward impulse wave from the bottom;
4. So, we can expect that a major uptrend wave might be starting.
After yesterday's intense brain battle, the conclusion reached can't really be said to just resemble the viewpoint of that crazy guy's post—it can be said to be exactly the same.
1. Yesterday I tried shorting for a while, but then I thought, I'm already pretty bad at this, making some profit on longs is good enough, no need to try to play both sides, so I closed the position;
I didn't look carefully yesterday, but today I glanced at the screenshots, and these numbers sound quite catchy: 2678, 2666, 321;
2. Since I don't really want to short, or rather, don't want to short for now, or can't do it well, the only thing I can do is optimize my position size, because I have ideas and thoughts, and not doing anything feels off;
3. Yesterday oil was like that, the US dollar index was like that, the 10-year bond was like that, Bitcoin was still like that, and some altcoins even more so, which puzzled me a lot, forcing me to ask the divine question! (See image 2)
Then I thought of a saying: topping out is a process. If the big brother can't push higher, and the little brother hasn't finished rotating, then it's reasonable for the big brother to tough it out to protect the little brother, after all: "Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is silver";
4. What needs reflection is that I've been a bit too lucky recently, which led to: ① worse ability to hold positions, wanting to make money as soon as I enter, greedy for instant profits, unhappy with any pullback; ② feeling floaty—I guess this floatiness means I have to lose all the profits made from this second wave of tactical positions before I can come back down to earth;
5. At this market position, whatever happens makes sense. If the US and Iran bring some good news, the market will pump online and trigger short stops. If US-Iran relations stay calm, the market will just move sideways painfully. If bad news comes, there might be a bloodbath;
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tech (semiconductors) might choose to digest sideways if no bad news comes from US-Iran or elsewhere, but if Bitcoin moves sideways, that's not good for altcoins. After all, Guilin said time doesn't favor altcoins; once rotation finishes, we just have to deal with it as before;
6. Guilin announces again: after a brief few days of rally, the market might enter a difficult mode again. This difficult mode interval is too close to the previous one, which is not a good sign (indicating the bulls...);
7. The first wave of bull protection, Guilin defended from 60,000 to nearly 90,000, Bitcoin rose nearly 50%, truly the top demon king of the crypto world. In the future, I need to focus more on the community, unless I can't help myself and rant again. For private community, please see the pinned post on my profile.
Happy Mid-Autumn Festival~
Kuang Ren 狂人说趋势
The market moved up to 87k, then fell back to 84k. Let me break down what happened and how the market might evolve.
The most important factor: interest rates
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.1%, and the 30-year has surged to 5.5%, both the highest since 2020, with further rate hike expectations ahead. This is the fundamental pressure on the interest-free asset Bitcoin, and the same applies to gold. This macro backdrop makes it difficult for a sustained upward trend in the short term.
Next is: oil prices. Oil remains high, inflation is hard to cool down, and rate hike expectations persist. Starting this month, I personally noticed a clear rise in vegetable prices, likely due to increased transportation costs, which have passed on to consumers. Inflation will continue for a while, and rate cuts are basically impossible.
ETF: Bitcoin has recently outperformed gold, driven by strong ETF buying, with $2.5 billion flowing in over five consecutive days. Large funds still price in future money printing and a decline in the US dollar’s credit.
Short squeeze: This rally from 77k to 87k was basically driven by spot pushing short sellers’ fuel directly upward. You’ll notice the rise was very fast, along with passive buying from options players, which I will discuss later.
China-US meeting: No conclusion yet. From the prelude, both sides still show sincerity, but it’s difficult to directly reverse the current US issues. In the short term, it can offset some negative factors.
Housing data: With high interest rates, repayment pressure has surged, but new home sales remain strong. Inventory digestion in August increased compared to July. Although housing prices are falling, this still indicates economic resilience and reduces the chance of rate cuts in the short term.
PMI: The latest PMI at 58.4 shows strong manufacturing, with rising costs as well, which is also unfavorable for rate cuts and leans more toward rate hikes to cool down.
Options: Today at 4 PM, the largest pain point is 75,000 with 16 billion in open interest. Previously, passive buying pressure will increase, and weekend liquidity is poor, which is unfavorable for market strength.
Overall, the market expects continued rate hikes and tightening this year, which is unfavorable for risk assets. Currently, Bitcoin cannot find a new anchor to continue upward. If the "dog whale" doesn’t want to let people on board, it will likely consolidate above 80k. Time for space is the strongest trend. Waiting for the Fed’s rate hike confirmation at the end of October may bring renewed strength. If it can pull back to around 72k, that would be an excellent opportunity for bulls to enter. Otherwise, just dollar-cost average over time.
Short-term negatives will only cause ripples in the trend, and time is the friend that accompanies the trend.