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峰哥的交易日记
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Hoffman喊“山寨季已至”,但5个数据告诉你真相
1/5 Hoffman的持仓确实炸裂。
5月21日清仓ETH,6月初换仓到LIT、ZEC、NEAR、HYPE、VVV。
三个月后成绩单:LIT涨了135%-210%,ZEC涨了120%以上,NEAR涨了69%,HYPE涨了55%。同期ETH只涨了17%。
组合整体收益约90%-120%,跑赢ETH超过70个百分点。
他不是嘴炮。他确实赚到了。
2/5 但市场数据不配合。
BlockchainCenter山寨季指数,9月读数37。临界值是75。意味着市值前50的代币里,过去90天跑赢BTC的不到一半。
BTC主导地位66.6%,不是用户资料里说的58.4%——实际情况更极端。前七大加密资产占前100名总市值的92.1%,集中度回到了2021年的水平。
资金在头部资产里轮动,根本没轮到山寨币。 30天ETF净流入56.4亿美元,比特币、以太坊、XRP、Solana四家吃掉了55.7亿。其余所有代币加在一起,分不到1亿。
这不是山寨季。这是头部资产的内部循环。
3/5 ZEC的上涨有真东西。
Paradigm联合创始人公开承认持有ZEC。灰度ZEC现货ETF上线两周吸金超4.6亿美元。社区投票以99.9%的同意率把出块时间从75秒砍到25秒。
ETF资金在持续买入,技术面在实质性升级。
这不是纯情绪,这是有催化剂撑着的行情。
但注意一个细节:利好兑现的节奏。NU7投票落地是利好,Paradigm披露持仓也是利好。利好出完,散户FOMO往里冲的时候,低位建仓的那批人利润厚得能砸死大象。过去一年ZEC涨了2590%。
趋势没坏。但追高和接盘,有时候就差一根K线。
4/5 NEAR的叙事有裂缝。
Hoffman把NEAR称为“ZEC的通用化版本”,听起来很美。数据呢?
NEAR Intents确实在帮ZEC做跨链结算,ZEC相关交易对占平台交易量的近40%。但真正流入协议金库用于回购NEAR的钱,30天只有约91万美元。
大部分手续费被SwapKit等渠道分走了,真正到NEAR回购池的,只有零头。
NEAR现在是“ZEC的影子”,不是独立的跨链基础设施。 ZEC涨,它跟着喝汤。ZEC一旦回调,它的交易量和回购量会同时萎缩。
从影子变成真正的基础设施,需要ZEC占比降到15%以下,同时总交易量还在涨。现在离那一步还很远。
5/5 结论。
Hoffman说的“山寨季”,是他个人组合的山寨季,不是市场的山寨季。
他的框架值得学:现金流 > 叙事。买ZEC是因为ETF在真金白银地买,买HYPE和LIT是因为协议收入在真金白银地回购。五个标的,四条叙事轨道,没有一条和L1估值有关。
但他的喊话需要警惕。清仓ETH、接管Bankless、喊山寨季、给NEAR贴新标签——媒体权力和持仓方向在同一时间重合。他说的可能是对的,但你要分清楚,哪些是判断,哪些是仓位。
不要因为他喊了,你就信了。
$ZEC $NEAR $ETH
On September 18, Bankless co-founder David Hoffman tweeted that "altcoin season is arriving earlier than expected."
The community went wild. The comment section was full of "bullish" and "all in."
But few noticed that on the same day he also said:
"NEAR can be seen as a generalized version of ZEC."
This sentence is actually the most dangerous part of the entire tweet.
Calling altcoin season is for attention; labeling NEAR as "generalized ZEC" is a bet.
First, let's look at what's happening with ZEC.
Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly disclosed on September 17 that the firm holds ZEC, calling it "Bitcoin's complement in privacy."
This is not some crypto KOL hyping a coin. This is a mainstream VC managing tens of billions of dollars publicly confirming their holdings.
Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) launched on August 25, and within two weeks, assets under management surpassed $500 million, holding over 550,000 ZEC, about 3% of the circulating supply. DCG International Investments alone invested $100 million.
The ZEC community just overwhelmingly approved the NU7 upgrade—block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while retaining Bitcoin-style halving cycles. 99.9% voted to shorten the block interval.
ZEC is currently priced around $1,444, with a market cap of $24.5 billion, already breaking into the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap. A year ago, it was still around $30.
Paradigm holdings + Grayscale ETF + community governance upgrade—these three things happening simultaneously is no coincidence. This signals privacy assets evolving from "geek toys" to "institutional allocations."
But what Hoffman really wants to say is not to buy ZEC.
The label he gives NEAR is: "a generalized version of ZEC."
In plain language: ZEC protects financial privacy, NEAR aims to protect the privacy of all commercial activities.
Do you get it? What he's pushing is not a privacy coin, but privacy infrastructure.
Zashi wallet (the core self-custody gateway in the ZEC ecosystem) uses NEAR Intents for its cross-chain swap function. Want to swap BTC for shielded ZEC? Use NEAR. Want to swap shielded ZEC for USDC? Still use NEAR.
NEAR collects toll fees on every transaction.
As of early September, NEAR Intents had a cumulative transaction volume of about $27.6 billion, covering more than 26 blockchains, generating approximately $45 million in fees. The Fee Switch mechanism activated in February 2026 stipulates that 100% of protocol fees are used to repurchase NEAR on the open market.
The hotter ZEC gets, the more Zashi is used, and the stronger NEAR's buyback.
Hoffman's bet logic chain is: privacy asset trading volume explodes → underlying settlement layer captures value → NEAR gets the dividend.
But the data reveals an awkward truth.
$45 million in cumulative fees sounds like a lot.
How much actually flows into the buyback pool as "protocol revenue"?
$5.51 million.
Monthly average buyback is about $900,000.
Out of $45 million, only $5.51 million went into the buyback pool. Where did the rest go? Most was taken by solvers (market makers/settlement parties) and distribution channels. SwapKit alone took over $4.4 million.
NEAR Intents is more like a "toll collector"—the volume passes through, but most of the money stays in others' pockets.
Even more painful is the concentration. ZEC trades account for nearly 40% of NEAR Intents' daily volume. This means NEAR's "altcoin season" narrative heavily depends on the performance of just one coin, ZEC.
ZEC rises, NEAR follows. ZEC falls, NEAR likely falls even harder.
This is not infrastructure; it's a shadow.
There's one more thing hidden in Hoffman's liquidation moves.
On May 21, he liquidated his six-year ETH holdings. On the same day, Ryan Sean Adams stepped back, David took over Bankless, and the team was later reported to have undergone significant layoffs.
He took half the funds and equally bought VVV, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, and invested the rest in LIT through dollar-cost averaging. The purchase price for NEAR was about $1.4, now $3.63.
Liquidate ETH → take over media → build altcoin positions → call altcoin season → label holdings with narratives.
This sequence was completed within three months.
Think about it.
Hoffman is not betting on altcoin season.
He is betting that privacy will shift from "geek demand" to "institutional compliance demand."
Paradigm is buying ZEC. Grayscale is launching ETFs. The ZEC community is upgrading protocols. NEAR is enabling default privacy mode for confidential perpetual contracts.
All these things are happening simultaneously.
This bet is much bigger and much riskier than altcoin season.
Because if the privacy narrative does not institutionalize—if regulations tighten, if ZEC's hype fades, if NEAR remains just "ZEC's shadow"—then Hoffman's entire logic chain will break from the bottom.
$45 million in fees but only $5.51 million buyback efficiency is itself a warning.
Don't just look at what he's shouting. Look at what he's buying and why he's shouting now.
$BTC $ZEC $NEAR
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