ETH at $2390, do you dare to bet tonight?
First, look at the market: current price 2390, stuck above last night's low of 2358, short moving averages all pressing overhead. Daily MACD death cross, RSI 33-50, not extremely oversold, but not strong enough to buy blindly. Short-term bearish, mid-term not dead yet, tonight is a variable.
First thing: If the bill fails, $570 million longs get buried.
On September 15, the CLARITY bill failed to advance 49-50. The market voted with its feet, ETH dropped from above 2500 to 2358, $570 million longs liquidated.
Regulatory expectations disappointed, what got liquidated was leverage, not faith.
On the same day, ETH spot ETFs still saw net inflows.
Second thing: Fundamentals haven't collapsed, what collapsed is your sentiment.
On-chain data shows:
Q2 average TPS about 25.9, a record high
Staking ratio 32%-34%, exchange balances continuously declining
BitMine holdings close to 4.9% of circulating supply, about 5.96 million coins, still accumulating and staking
Glamsterdam upgrade, gas limit increase, mid-term bullish factors unchanged
ETH is still ETH, DeFi, RWA, stablecoin settlement layers, none lost.
Third thing: Technicals tell you, now is not the time to go all in.
Daily: failed to break 2667, volume dropped below 2500 and the lower edge of the ascending channel. Short MAs 5/10/20 bearish alignment, MACD death cross, momentum turning bearish.
4H: 2390 stuck in 2358-2408 range, resistance at 2420-2465, support at 2358-2380.
Supports: 2358-2380 → 2340 → 2300 → 2250-2274 (EMA50)
Resistances: 2420-2465 → 2500 → 2540-2567 → 2600-2667
2358 is last night's low and your psychological defense line.
Tonight's FOMC is the real killer move.
Market pricing for 25bp rate hike is 85%-93%, mostly priced in. What can really hammer it down further is rate hike + hawkish dot plot + Warsh press conference.
If just a rate hike with neutral wording → possibly all bad news priced in, quick rebound to 2460
If rate hike + hawkish → 2358 likely broken, next stops 2300 or even 2250
If unexpectedly no rate hike → immediate surge, but very low probability
You are not waiting for FOMC, you are waiting for a reason—to either convince yourself to add positions or to cut losses.
Bull vs bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETH ETF still seeing net inflows, institutions not withdrawing
BitMine hoarding 4.9% of circulating supply, staking locked
Staking rate 32%-34%, exchange balances dropping
Strong support at 2358-2380, multiple tests without break
On the other side:
CLARITY bill failed, regulatory expectations cooling
FOMC rate hike probability 90%, macro pressure
MACD death cross, short MAs bearish alignment
BTC weakening at 75,000-77,000, risk appetite shrinking
Trading strategy
Scenario A (highest probability): consolidation or dip
Rebound to 2460-2500, weak momentum (upper shadow, volume stagnation) → light short positions, stop loss 2540-2560, target 2380→2300.
Break below 2350 and fail to recover → follow trend light short, stop loss 2390-2410, target 2300/2250.
Scenario B: 2358-2380 holds, quick rally after decision
Light long in batches at 2360-2390, stop loss below 2330.
First target 2460-2480, second target 2540. Reduce positions at 2460, don't expect a direct return to 2667.
Scenario C: rate hike + hawkish dot plot
Possible spike. Do not add or average down, wait for 15-minute/1-hour close to decide.
Daily close below 2300, short-term clear downtrend wave, short first then watch for rebound.
Mid-term view: weekly not breaking 2200-2250 still seen as a bull market correction washout. To retarget 3000, must first reclaim and hold 2560-2667.
$570 million longs buried not because they were wrong on direction, but because they bet on the wrong timing.
Institutions are picking up chips below 2400, you are asking "to cut or not" above 2400.
Rate hikes are not scary, what’s scary is being fully invested waiting for the hike.
Tonight's FOMC, are you watching empty-handed or have you already bet on a direction?
$BTC$ETH$SOL#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
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