Everyone is betting on whether there will be a rate hike in the early hours of September 17.
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike has surged to 92.4%.
But that's not the main point.
The key is—the underlying formula for the Fed's decision-making has changed.
Most people are still calculating "whether to hike or not," but they don't realize: regardless of whether there is a hike this time, the game rules are no longer the same.
1️⃣ Past: Unless a rate hike. Now: Unless a pause.
This is the most striking sentence in ING's latest report.
The previous market logic was: the Fed would keep rates unchanged unless the data was so bad that a hike was necessary.
Now ING says the logic has reversed: the Fed is more inclined to hike unless the data is good enough to justify a pause.
What does this mean?
The same set of data, previously meant "no action needed," now means "a hike is possible."
The data hasn't changed, but the interpretation framework has. This is what you really need to understand.
Core CPI rose 0.29% month-over-month in August—the monthly trend needed to achieve the 2% inflation target is about 0.17%, so the actual figure is nearly twice that target.
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, the labor market remains robust.
The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.014% intraday, the first time since 2007.
Under the old framework, the Fed could have held steady with these data. Under the current framework—each data point says: it's time to act.
2️⃣ The most counterintuitive judgment: hike once, then stop.
The market is not only betting on a September hike but also pricing in about two and a half more hikes afterward.
ING says: you are overthinking it.
They call this a "one-time hike"—a policy recalibration, not the start of a tightening cycle.
The analogy is mid-1990s: after the Fed cut rates in early 1996 and held steady, it did a "risk management hike" in March 1997, then stayed put for a long time.
The purpose of the hike is not to suppress demand but to preemptively control the risk of inflation expectations spiraling out of control.
In plain language: this is not to crush the market, but to buy insurance for itself.
3️⃣ What exactly is Bitcoin waiting for between 76,000 and 77,000?
BTC is currently around $78,000, consolidating between 76,000 and 82,000.
Leverage positions are heavily stacked at both ends: above $82,000 and below $75,000-$76,000.
The market is not betting on direction—it is pricing two completely different scenarios simultaneously:
Scenario A: Rate hike + dovish guidance. The statement emphasizes "one-time," and the dot plot does not imply consecutive hikes. BTC may dip then rise, holding support at 76,000 and pushing back to 82,000.
Scenario B: Rate hike + hawkish guidance. The dot plot raises the future rate path, implying more hikes. BTC is likely to break below 76,000 to seek lower support.
The same 25 basis point hike, but because of different wording on the "path forward," BTC's direction can be completely opposite.
Most are waiting for the answer to "hike or not." The truly smart are waiting for: what will Wash say after the hike.
4️⃣ Wash's dilemma: credibility vs loyalty
During the Irish Open, Trump told reporters: "America is so strong, we should pay the lowest rates in the world."
But the Fed Chair Wash, personally chosen by him, may lead the central bank to hike this week.
White House economic advisor Hassett said Trump "100% respects" Wash's independence—but also admitted Trump won't be "super happy" about the hike.
If the Fed hikes, Wash offends the president. If it backs down, Wash loses credibility.
Obstfeld from the Peterson Institute for International Economics bluntly said: "Either incur the president's anger or damage your own market credibility, the latter possibly causing more severe long-term inflation consequences."
Wash's choice has never been "to hike or not."
It's: price the Fed's credibility with a hike, or pay for the White House's loyalty with a retreat.
$BTC$ETH$XAU#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
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