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90% chance of a rate hike. You read that right. The last time the Federal Reserve raised rates was July 2023. It hasn’t moved for over three years. But next week, it’s very likely to break that streak. But what’s really worth your 3 minutes isn’t whether they raise rates or not. It’s these 5 things below. 1/ The starting point for this rate hike is completely different from 2022 In 2022, rates started from zero and climbed all the way to 5.25%–5.50%. This time? The current rate range is 3.50%–3.75%. They’re raising from a high level. What does that mean? The potential for terminal rates is wide open. The 2-year Treasury yield is already close to 4.4%, higher than the current effective federal funds rate — the bond market is more honest than the stock market; it’s already pricing in a tighter environment. Stop using the 2022 playbook to predict 2026. 2/ Wall Street is collectively tearing up their reports As soon as the CPI data came out, institutions moved faster than retail investors. UBS: changed from “no hikes all year” to one hike each in September and December. Goldman Sachs: changed from “no change” to a 25 basis point hike in September. TD Securities, the most aggressive: three hikes in September, October, and January next year. The same people were calling for rate cuts six months ago. Their forecasts aren’t opinions; they’re just following the trend. 3/ BTC and gold rising together — you think the market’s gone crazy? After the CPI release, BTC rebounded to around $78,600. Gold also rose against the trend. With a 90% rate hike expectation, risk assets didn’t fall but rose — this isn’t a contradiction; prices have already priced in 90% certainty. What the market is really trading is what Powell will say after the hike. A 25bp hike isn’t news. How much the dot plot is revised is. 4/ $747 million liquidated in 48 hours — this isn’t a rally, it’s a purge In the past 24 hours, about $747 million was liquidated across the network. Shorts lost $425 million, longs lost $307 million. Both sides got hit. The market is using leveraged positions for a "clearance sale." More crucial data: ETFs saw $3.8 billion inflow over three weeks, but $147 million outflow on September 8–9. Institutions are reducing positions before the hike and replenishing after the data release. This is tactical, not a trend. The money hasn’t left; it’s just waiting for a more comfortable entry point. 5/ On September 16, you only need to watch three things Leverage — the lesson from $700+ million liquidated in 48 hours is clear: don’t hold heavy positions before the FOMC. Dot plot — the June dot plot already raised the median rate for the end of 2026 from 3.4% to 3.8%. Will it be revised higher this time? By how much? This is ten times more important than whether they hike or not. Powell’s wording — this “most silent Fed chair” has only given one public speech in his first 100 days. At Jackson Hole, he said “there’s more work to do if inflation isn’t under control.” If he changes his tone this time, the whole narrative must be rewritten. A 90% rate hike probability is already priced in. If you’re still stuck on “hike or not,” you’re already a whole street behind. The real money is betting on what Powell’s next sentence will be. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温