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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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based16z自己说得很清楚。他拿VVV的流通市值和ZEC在50美元时做了类比。 ZEC是什么?隐私币的鼻祖,2016年上线,一路沉寂到2026年。然后发生了什么? ZEC从500美元附近,一个月内突破1000美元,再到9月初冲破1200美元,市值从85亿冲到200亿以上,30日涨幅138%。 一个沉寂九年的老币,在隐私叙事被重新点燃后,30天翻了1.3倍。 based16z的潜台词是:VVV现在所处的位置,就是ZEC在50美元时的位置。隐私的价值重估才刚刚开始,而VVV是这个叙事里流动性最好的承接资产。 他不是在赌VVV涨到25美元。 他是在赌VVV涨到远超25美元。 让这波行情真正起飞的,是一场关于AI隐私的争议。 纽约大学的数学家Tristan Buckmaster公开质疑:他和合作者把未发表的研究草稿输入了OpenAI的Codex工具,结果发现OpenAI内部团队在相关方向上取得了进展。他追问对方是否接触过这些会话,得到的回答是“模型没有查阅用户数据”——但关于训练部分的追问,没有答复。 OpenAI的回应是:无法排除课题组与Codex的私人会话的去标识数据曾帮助改进模型。 翻译成人话:你的秘密,可能已经喂给了AI。 社区炸了。当利益足够大的时候,这些实验室能不能看到你的全部工作,然后抢在你前面拿出成果? 这个问题一出来,隐私推理的需求就不再是“锦上添花”了,而是“刚需”。 Venice不是靠叙事硬撑的空气项目。 年化收入从今年1月的1400万美元,到8月突破1亿美元。七个月,七倍。 商业模型很清晰:用户每购买100美元的API额度,就有5美元用于在公开市场买入并销毁VVV。产品越火,回购销毁越猛,供应越紧。 供应端也在同步收紧。年排放量从9月1日起由300万枚降至250万枚,10月1日计划进一步降到200万枚。累计销毁已经超过总供应量的42%。 一边是收入驱动的回购销毁,一边是排放量持续削减。需求在涨,供应在缩。 Venice还搞了个DIEM系统:质押VVV铸造DIEM,每枚DIEM每天给你1美元的API额度,永久有效。开发者、AI智能体可以持有一个持续产生调用额度的资产。 这不是“锁仓换利息”的那种伪需求。这是真实的API调用需求在驱动锁仓。 based16z不是唯一一个在行动的。 Bankless联合创始人David Hoffman清仓了持有六年的ETH,转头买入了VVV、ZEC、NEAR等资产。Kalshi上线了美国首个受CFTC监管的AI代币永续合约——VVV是标的。 Venice背后站着Dragonfly领投、Coinbase Ventures参投的6500万美元A轮融资,估值10亿美元,而且已经盈利。 一个已经盈利的AI隐私平台,年化收入1亿美元,代币销毁率超过42%,排放量还在砍。 而它的流通市值——按照CoinGecko数据——只有约12亿美元。 ZEC在50美元时,市值是多少?你自己算。 25美元不是终点 回到那张期权。 based16z用三种工具表达同一个观点:现货是长期信仰,永续是短期杠杆,期权是对远高于当前价格的确定性押注。 他愿意为“VVV涨到25美元以上”支付权利金。而他的类比对象——ZEC——从50美元涨到了1250美元。 当有人愿意用期权赌25美元,现货25美元就不是终点,而是起点。 至于终点在哪里,他自己已经给了答案:看ZEC走到哪里就知道了。 $VVV $ZEC $ZEN
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Why is VVV worth $25? Breaking down Venice's "Buyback Flywheel" On September 8, Venice did something many projects only dare to write about in their whitepapers. It used protocol revenue to burn $391,000 worth of VVV in one go. Then VVV surged from $18 to $29.75 in a single bullish candle. A 60% spike in 24 hours. If you think this is just another AI meme hype, you might be missing something in this market that is truly priced by cash flow. VVV's rise didn't start with a candlestick chart; it started with a mathematician's nightmare. Tristan Buckmaster, a mathematician at New York University, discovered that an unpublished draft he and his collaborators input into Codex might have overlapped with "related progress" from OpenAI's internal team. When he asked if his conversation data was used for training, the answer was: "Unlikely, but cannot be ruled out." In one sentence, the entire AI research community felt a chill down their spine. Every idea, every line of code, every unpublished formula you give to AI—when the stakes are high enough, who really owns them? Venice AI stands right opposite this question. Erik Voorhees is not building "smarter AI," but "AI that won't steal your stuff." Venice puts reasoning inside TEE hardware-isolated environments, with end-to-end encryption starting from the user's device and only decrypting inside the protected environment. In plain terms: even Venice itself can't see what you asked. The PMF of privacy AI was kicked open by a scandal. But narrative alone doesn't make VVV worth $25. What’s valuable is the system below. Venice's business model is extremely simple: you pay for AI compute power, the protocol takes a portion of that money to buy VVV, then burns it. Specifically: for every $100 of Venice API credits purchased by users, $5 is automatically used to repurchase and burn VVV. What is Venice's current annualized revenue? In January this year, $14 million. In July, $70 million. In August, it surpassed $100 million. At a 5% buyback rate, the annualized buyback potential is about $5 million. $5 million sounds small? VeniceStats data shows that currently 85% of observable protocol revenue has been burned, with about 2,248 VVV permanently removed from the market daily. This is not some fake "locked tokens" or "burn announcement." This is real treasury funds flowing into the market to buy tokens. The $391,000 burn on September 8 was the result of this mechanism—the largest autonomous buyback in history, with a signal significance far beyond the amount itself. But buyback is only half the flywheel. The other half is called DIEM. What is DIEM? An asset that can only be minted by locking staked VVV. For every DIEM minted, you get $1 of daily continuously refreshed API credits. In simple terms: developers and AI agent operators, if you expect to keep calling models in the future, instead of paying daily for credits, lock VVV, mint DIEM, and get a compute asset that automatically renews daily. Currently, over 6.3 million VVV are locked, about 10% of total supply. On September 14, DIEM's target supply will be phased up from 38,000 to 40,000. The team's willingness to expand indicates expectations for user growth. The brilliance here is: people locking VVV are not speculating on price. They are locking for compute usage. Locking tokens shifts from speculation to production. Now put the three gears together: Buyback and burn reduce circulating supply. DIEM locking further removes circulating tokens. Emission reduction chokes off new supply at the source. The emission line deserves a separate mention. VVV's annual emission has been cut multiple times: from the initial 14 million down to 3 million. On September 1, it dropped to 2.5 million, and on October 1, it plans to further reduce to 2 million. On one side, 2,248 tokens are burned daily; on the other, monthly new emissions are continuously compressed. Deflation is not a slogan; it’s a formula. The flywheel spins like this: More people use Venice → API revenue increases → More VVV is bought back and burned → Circulating supply decreases → More people need to lock VVV to mint DIEM → Circulation tightens further. This is not a meme. This is a token model supported by cash flow, running for the first time with real stakes in the crypto market. But don’t rush in. There are two areas where you need to stay clear-headed. First, the annualized revenue metric. The $100 million figure comes from Banyan and the team’s disclosure, but how much is from real paying users versus incentive income? There is currently no third-party audited breakdown. Second, the actual minted amount after DIEM expansion. The supply cap is raised from 38,000 to 40,000, but how much is actually minted is the true test of user demand. If the expansion space is there but users don’t come, locking demand is just talk. There is a third concern: RSI is already overbought, and a 60% 24-hour surge means huge short-term profit-taking pressure. If the $25 support doesn’t hold, the previous platform at $18–20 is the next fallback. VVV rising to $25, what is the market pricing? Not the privacy narrative. Privacy narrative only deserves an emotional premium. The market is pricing: a profitable AI platform that automatically converts revenue into token buybacks, uses compute demand to create locking, and chokes supply with emission cuts. Three things happening simultaneously, on one token. $ZEC $VVV $TAO

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