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📝 Today's sharing On the eve of BTC nonfarm payrolls, 77K became a battleground for bulls and bears Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the August nonfarm payroll will decide the September interest rate hike scenario. The market expects an increase of 50,000 to 80,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. July was -23,000, so this data is very likely to rebound—but the key is whether the rebound exceeds expectations. ADP recorded 38,000 yesterday, below expectations and the weakest since January, casting a shadow over nonfarm payrolls. The 10-year yield surged to 4.81%, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 68%, and the market has priced in hawkish sentiment in advance. Three scenarios: 📉 Over 100,000 → rate hikes confirmed, increasing pressure on BTC 🔄 50,000-80,000 → meets expectations, returning to volatility after volatility 📈 Below 30,000→ rate hike expectations have loosened, and a rebound opportunity has emerged Bank of America reminds us: Nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the September 11 CPI is the key to deciding whether to raise rates. My approach: Hold your position without moving, don't add positions, don't bet on direction. Wait for the data to hit before moving, keep U in hand and wait for signals. ⛔ Risk Warning: Historical data shows that if the data exceeds expectations, BTC could fall back to $75,000 or even lower. Don't overdo it tonight $BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday's nonfarm payroll #非农前数据分化, expectations for a September rate hike heat up. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard