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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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0.12美元的ARB,你要追吗? 先看表面:两根大阳线,散户高喊"牛回速归"。 8月31日,ARB从0.084一根纪录级阳线拉到0.109,单日涨超30%。9月1日继续冲高0.119。24小时成交暴增,持仓量飙升,整个市场都在喊:Arbitrum终于要起飞了! 第一件事:Robinhood Chain是真金白银,不是空气叙事。 Robinhood基于Arbitrum Orbit做了自己的专用链,上线后单日费用收入190-213万美元,DEX成交量超14亿美元,比Arbitrum One自己赚的还多。 最关键的是:Orbit链净收入的10%回流Arbitrum生态——8%进DAO金库,2%给开发者公会。单日给生态带来十几万美元真实收入,年化算下来几千万美金级别。 以前L2都是"烧钱换用户",现在Arbitrum是"收租"模式跑通了。技术授权+收入分成,这是L2第一次证明自己不是赔钱货。 第二件事:9月16日,9263万枚解锁炸弹倒计时。 9月16日,ARB有约9263万枚解锁,团队+投资者线性释放,价值约900-1050万美元,占流通市值1.3-1.4%。 听着不算多?但你要知道,ARB的解锁周期持续到2027年,每个月都有新筹码砸出来。 第三件事:技术面超买,资金费率飙升。 日线从0.075-0.10箱体放量突破,RSI已经接近70超买区。持仓量飙升——这说明杠杆资金大量涌入,多头拥挤。 0.10-0.105是突破前的箱体上沿,现在是关键支撑转换位。如果守不住,直接回0.10甚至0.095。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: Robinhood Chain单日收入200万+,真实价值捕获 Orbit链收入分成的模式跑通了,L2终于能"收租" ArbOS 61升级利好机构部署 周涨幅13-22%,月涨幅37-40%,趋势转多 一边是: 9月16日9263万枚解锁砸盘 解锁周期持续到2027年,结构性卖压 RSI超买,持仓量过高,多头拥挤 0.12这个位置,去年以来每次都是顶 ARB代币对协议收入的捕获仍间接,不进自己口袋 上方阻力:0.119-0.12(心理关口)→0.125→0.14 下方支撑:0.108-0.105(突破位)→0.10(箱体下沿)→0.092-0.095(铁底) 操作策略 短线选手: 观望为主。0.12上方若放量站稳,回踩不破可轻仓试多,目标0.125-0.13,止损0.112。若跌破0.108且放量,直接走人,下方看0.10。 波段选手: 等回调到0.105-0.10区间分批低吸,止损0.092,目标前高0.119-0.125,突破再看0.14。9月14-15日减仓,等解锁那天观察资金承接情况再做决定。 风控铁律: 仓位不超过账户3-5%,杠杆3-5倍以内 盯住Robinhood Chain费用能否维持高位 盯住解锁日大额转出 如果BTC跌破7.6万,ARB别扛 ARB这次暴涨,只是L2"收租叙事"的第一次考试—— 99%的人看到37%涨幅觉得要反转,结果忘了9月16日还有9000万枚在等着。 0.12站不稳的那一天,你会发现: 不是ARB不行,是你每次都在消息最热的时候追高。 你的ARB成本是多少? 9月16日解锁那天,你会怎么操作? $BTC $SOL $ARB #Robinhood链上放量,币股Meme引争议
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI at $6.3, are you chasing it? First, look at the surface: up 97% in a month, market cap hitting 3.9 billion. Up 47% in the past 7 days, another 8-12% surge in 24 hours, climbing nonstop from 3.2 to 6.3. The candlestick chart tells you: short, medium, and long-term moving averages are all bullish, ADX shows a strong trend, a bull market structure, but the short term is heating up fast. First thing: UNI has transformed from a “useless governance token” to a “money-printing burn machine.” UNI used to be criticized—“only governance rights, no value capture, price rises depend entirely on whales’ moods.” Now the fee switch is officially activated: the protocol takes a portion of fees from every transaction to buy back and burn UNI on the market. Robinhood Chain explosion: tokenized stocks/RWA trading volume surged to $130 million/day, with Uniswap taking most of the share. Daily burn records keep breaking: recently about 150,000 UNI burned in one day, cumulative burn has reached tens of millions to over a hundred million. Second thing: Robinhood Chain gave UNI a second life. Data as of September 2, 2026: Protocol TVL $3.455 billion: Ethereum mainnet $2.38 billion, Base $412 million, Arbitrum $185 million, Robinhood Chain already at $163 million. 30-day trading volume $54.8 billion, annualized fees $851 million. Protocol revenue (for burning) annualized about $56.4 million, 30 days $9.19 million, 24 hours $610,000. The real trading demand for tokenized stocks and RWA on Robinhood Chain has turned UNI from a “meme coin casino” into a “compliant asset trading infrastructure.” Third thing: risks remain, FOMC is the biggest variable. FOMC on September 16, current pricing for a 25bp rate hike is about 35-66%. Chair Warsh is hawkish, 10-year US Treasury yield is at a cycle high, suppressing no-yield assets. If Nonfarm Payrolls (September 4) or CPI (September 11) data are strong, BTC might retest 75,000 or even lower—no matter how strong UNI is, it can’t withstand a BTC crash. Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: Fee burn activated, UNI changed from governance token to a protocol token with cash flow Robinhood Chain’s explosive contribution, real incremental trading demand 30-day rise of 97%, trend strength ADX shows bulls dominate All moving averages bullish, mid-term structure intact On the other side: RSI 78, extremely overbought short term, strong pullback demand If funding rate turns too positive, risk of bull squeeze FOMC rate hike expectations suppress macro, BTC breaking 75,000 will drag down 6.3 is already a position after a sharp rise, chasing high has average risk-reward Resistance above: 6.37-6.5 → 6.8-7.2 → 8-9 (needs volume breakout) Support below: 6.0-5.96 → 5.78-5.70 → 5.50-5.39 → 5.22-5.13 Trading strategy If you already have long positions: Move stop profit to 5.70, first target 6.8-7.2 to sell half, second target 8-9. If you are empty and want to go long: Don’t chase! Wait for a pullback to 5.85-5.70 with low volume stabilization before entering. Or wait for daily volume to break and hold above 6.5 to chase the breakout, but keep position light. If you want to short/reduce positions: Light short near 6.3-6.4, target pullback to 5.9-5.7, stop loss above 6.5. Risk control iron rules: Perpetual leverage within 3-5x, single trade risk no more than 1-2% of principal Watch Nonfarm Payrolls on September 4, CPI on September 11, FOMC on September 16 Reduce or hedge if BTC breaks below 75,000 UNI’s move from 3.2 to 6.3 is the first real value return in DeFi narrative— 99% of people still criticize “governance tokens are useless,” yet UNI doubled in a month, burning 150,000 daily. 6.3 is neither bottom nor top—it’s the starting point of a newly validated narrative. But don’t forget, even the best coin can trap you for three months if you chase in an overbought zone. What’s your UNI cost? At 6.3, are you chasing? $BTC $ETH $UNI

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