Post

峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
Show original
77800美元的BTC,你要追吗? 先看表面:高位震荡,多空都难受。 8月涨了将近25%,最高摸到81300,随后被鹰派言论一巴掌拍回76900。现在卡在77800,不上不下,日内波动77780-79200,缩量横盘。月线级别从12.6万跌到5.8万,再反弹到8.1万——这只是熊市后的修复,不是新一轮主升的确认。81000-82500站稳,才算真正翻盘。 第一件事:沃什一句话,把9月议息全改了。 8月28日杰克逊霍尔,美联储主席沃什明确表态偏鹰,市场直接从“9月按兵不动”转向“加息概率57%-65%”。枪。 PCE 3.7%、核心PCE 3.3%,远高于2%目标。10年期美债4.73%,30年期5.22%。高利率压着风险资产,BTC不可能独善其身。 第二件事:Strategy回来了,但买盘开始犹豫。 上周Strategy买入4603枚BTC,约3.7亿美元,是6月底以来首次加仓,持仓冲到84.5万枚。企业金库重新进场,对情绪有托底。 ETF 8月净流入30.5亿美元,是2025年10月以来最强一个月。但8月28日流出2.02亿,打断9连流入;8月31日又回流2.17亿,几乎全靠IBIT。 机构买盘还在,但从“单边灌水”变成了“进两步退一步”。 第三件事:技术面到了一个必须决断的位置。 日线结构三层看: 大级别:从12.6万跌到5.8万,反弹到8.1万——只是趋势修复,不是主升确认。81000-82500周线站稳才算反转。 中级别:8月放量突破7.6万-7.8万压力带,形成旗杆。当前77700-79200是旗面整理,形态偏多,但旗面靠近上沿失败过一次——只能当条件多,不能当已确认突破。 短级别:现价77800是箱体中下沿,多空都可做,但赔率一般。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: Strategy重新买币,企业金库托底 ETF 8月净流入30.5亿美元,机构仍在场 财政部回购=隐性宽松,美元稀释叙事 76000-76500突破带守住,中期结构未坏 一边是: 9月加息概率57%-65%,高利率压制 8月反弹24%后获利盘兑现5亿美元/日 81000三次没过去,心理压力巨大 9月季节性偏弱+议息,波动会放大 上方阻力:79200-80000 → 81300-82500(反转确认位)→ 85000 → 88000-90000 下方支撑:77200-76900 → 76000-76500(突破带下沿)→ 72200 → 68500 操作策略 箱体震荡: 区间76900-80000,极端76000-81300。 多单:回踩77200-77600分批接,止损75800下方,第一目标79200-80000,第二目标81000-81300。到8万减仓一半。 空单:反弹79800-81300且出现长上影/量价背离再做,止损82200,目标回看78000/76900。 向上突破: 有效突破标准:4小时连续站稳80000 + 日线收盘站上81300 + ETF连续两日净流入。达标后追趋势多,回踩80000-80500加,目标85000,再看88000-90000。止损放79200。 向下破位: 日线收盘跌破76000,8月突破带失效。多单立刻清,反抽76500-77200可做空,目标72200,再看68500。中期多头等65500-68500再重新评估。 9月16日FOMC:加息落地短线先砸后买;若按兵不动,直接抽8.1万-8.5万 BTC现在就像2024年ETF通过前的震荡期—— 99%的人觉得“反弹结束了要崩盘”,结果每次回踩都成了机构加仓的黄金坑。 81000突破的那一天,你会发现: 原来不是BTC不行,是你每次都在震荡中被洗下车。 你的BTC成本是多少? 77800这个位置,你敢加仓吗? $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC高位震荡,与黄金联动增强
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI for $5.7—are you chasing it? Let's look at the surface first: a barrage of positive news, soaring prices, and retail investor FOMO. In the past 7 days, it rose 20-35%, and in 30 days, it rose 27-38%. From the June low of 2.3 to 5.6, it more than doubled. 100 million coins were burned, Fee Switch launched, Uniswap became the main AMM on Robinhood Chain, with daily trading volume reaching 130 million. But the market always ends in a celebration. The daily RSI has reached 77, with an overbought warning flashing red. First: UNI went from being an "air coin" to a "money printer." After UNIfication passes in December 2025, Fee Switch officially launches. Protocol fees are used to buy coins for burning; on August 21, 150,000 tokens were burned in a single day, setting a new standard. Previously, Uniswap's earnings belonged to the team and had nothing to do with UNI holders The money earned now is used to buy UNI and burn UNI The higher the trading volume, the more burned and the less supply is UNI is no longer a governance token; it is a "dividend burn share." The second thing: but 5.7 has already digested too much good news. On August 30, a large bullish candlestick rose on high volume, then consolidated on reduced volume. The price broke above all moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day golden crosses, and mid-term bullish alignment—all good signs. But the daily RSI is 67-77, already overbought. The Bollinger Bands are running close to the upper band, the MACD bars are flat, and the upward momentum is slowing down. When all the good news is gone, it's bad; when FOMO reaches its peak, it's a pullback. Look at previous ZEC and ALLO—which one wasn't a bullish rally followed by a massive shakeout? UNI is no exception. The third thing: September macro data week is the biggest variable. September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI. The Fed rate is 3.5-3.75%, next FOMC meeting September 15-16. The crypto fear and greed index is 69, already "greedy." BTC is oscillating between 77k and 81k; once macro data turns hawkish and the dollar strengthens, high-level altcoins will be the first to be attacked. If BTC falls below 77k, UNI is very likely to fall as well, first looking at 5.00, then 4.80. The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you On one side: Closed-loop destruction implementation, annualized destruction of tens of millions of tokens Robinhood Chain saw daily trading volume of 130 million, with real income fed into burning Some v4 pools have opened fees, and v4 hooks are expanding their application scenarios Mid-term bullish arrangement, technical strengthening On one side: The daily RSI is 67-77, severely overbought Funding rates turned positive and slightly higher, with bulls crowded 5.6 has already swallowed a large portion of expectations September macro data week brings significant volatility risk Historically, high-level FOMO has been a long-tail chase, with a very low win rate Resistance above: 5.50-5.60→ 5.84-6.00→ 6.40 Support levels: 5.15-5.20→ 4.95-5.06→ 4.44-4.50 Operational strategy Short-term players: Buy in batches on a pullback to 5.15-5.25, or go deeper at 4.95-5.05. Stop loss: daily closing below 4.78. Target 5.80-5.90, first break halfway, then 6.20-6.40. Breakthrough Players: Wait until the 4h/day moving average rises with volume and holds above 5.85; if it pulls back and doesn't break below 5.50, add more. If the price falls below 5.40 after a false breakout, exit immediately. Bears: Only when the daily chart clearly shows a long upper shadow + RSI dullness + extremely high cost, light positions test short at 5.70-5.85, stop loss at 5.95-6.05, target 5.20. If the win rate is lower than pullbacks and long positions, play lightly. The iron rule of risk control: Single transaction not exceeding 1-1.5% of the total amount Pre-farm deleveraging and position reduction BTC has fallen below 77k, so let's run first UNI's recent rally is driven by fundamentals, not purely sentiment-driven rally— There is destruction, income, and real transactions—completely different from those "air-based narratives." But no matter how strong the fundamentals, you can't stop chasing highs in the overbought zone. When prices rise, you don't dare to buy; when prices fall, you don't dare to buy—you always do the wrong thing at the wrong time. How much does your UNI cost? At the 5.7 position, would you chase or not? $BTC $ETH $UNI

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!