Post

Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Influential Creator
Show original
连环计,特朗普在内阁会议给伊朗释放信号之后,开始了新的军事与外交施压 宣布美以联合对伊朗进行打击,特朗普目性有两个: 1,乐观走势,伊朗借此服软,通过调停国释放软化信号,开始回归谈判 2,恶化走势,美以对伊朗联合袭击,争取一次性打痛,通过武力威胁让伊朗被迫回归谈判桌 伊朗的反应,做好应对战争的准备,言论上是强硬的,但是,这未必是我们看到的事实 对于美伊双方,外交态度强硬是必然,毕竟各自国内都有一批强硬派威胁内部政治,真正的博弈是在“暗线”上,手下官员沟通或者通过调停国沟通 而目前这种强硬的地缘局势,必然让亚太、欧盟与中东多个国家开始警惕并且积极沟通,地区调停国以及相关大国目前应该在权衡利弊,讨论如何按住双方 如果按照目前媒体报道的内容来看,一旦打起来,战争烈度不输3月份,且可能会导致整个阿拉伯地区国际混乱 极端压力之下,我认为这是一个关键转折点了,上周的转折点在本周被伊朗打破,现在压力继续增加,这次看谁能安抚下美伊双方! 不管如何,又是一个极度压抑紧张的周末,牵一发而动全身,注意加密市场对各资产的快速定价吧!#特朗普称对伊失去信心,酝酿再打击
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Tonight, Trump's attitude expressed at the cabinet meeting was actually relatively soft, making his goal clear—to win (even if only on the surface), to make his stance (to keep negotiations possible), to clarify the conditions for facilitating negotiations (the nuclear issue), and to say that an agreement could be reached Overall, in my view, the attitude is relatively mild, and there is no need to plan for strategic conflicts between the US and Iran. Next, the ball will pass to Iran, and it will depend on how Iran responds, which also tests the political understanding between both sides Iran is taking advantage of the situation to give Trump a reason to win. Appropriate compromises on nuclear and strait issues can bring bilateral relations back to the negotiation framework, turning the U.S.-Iran situation optimistic However, there is a key issue here: Iran has clearly been "betting on the past" recently. Moreover, a gambler talking rationally and talking about a step forward is clearly inappropriate. Will Iran follow Trump's lead? I really do have some doubts For now, the ball has passed to Iran, but on the main strategic side, Trump remains pessimistic. With midterm elections scheduled for September, if the Iran issue remains unresolved, Trump will surely have a headache. This weekend, let's see Iran's attitude. Iran is taking advantage of the situation, everything is improving, but Iran continues to insist on ignoring Trump's stance, and the situation is expected to escalate! Looking at crude oil price trends, it seems the market doesn't believe Iran will soften—another torturous weekend! #美伊报复循环加速, oil prices have risen 20% this month

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!