阿简在路上

阿简在路上

野生加密研究员|用数据拆解市场叙事 长期主义|NFA|📩 DM Open

1Following
77followers

Feed

Pinned
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
#The Trump administration plans to launch an overseas US dollar stablecoin program. From cryptocurrencies to stablecoins, it can be said that the US has been laying out the dollar 2.0 system since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and this moment reveals it clearly. Almost all the macro signals you've seen recently, including but not limited to Fed rate hikes, US-Iran conflicts, oil prices, and US debt, can be connected to this. I believe most friends haven't realized that the future is already here, but by reading this article by Ajian, you'll have a clearer understanding of the macro landscape. I don't need to use too much data to explain the current scale of stablecoins; everyone knows how fast they have developed. Longtime followers might remember that Ajian previously analyzed Tether's promotion of stablecoin payments at gas stations in El Salvador, marking USDT's first entry into large-scale commodity retail payment scenarios; as well as Tether's ongoing purchase of US Treasury bonds, which has reached $150 billion. Simply put, these are all new channels to demonstrate to governments the support for the US dollar. In the coming period, the US government will continue to promote a weak dollar but a strong dollar, using monetary easing to keep enough countries firmly tied to the dollar system. If we review the four parts supporting the dollar system 2.0: the dollar, energy, AI semiconductors, and crypto & stablecoins. The dollar itself has become increasingly tied to oil over the past six months, and the development speed of AI semiconductors in recent years is evident to all, so now it's time to accelerate the promotion of stablecoins. These four parts complement each other, just like the dollar and oil, AI + crypto, Tether's attempts at oil + stablecoin, and now the vigorous promotion of AI + stablecoin. This is also why Wall Street giants like BlackRock are taking sides for AI stablecoin payments. If you understand the dollar system 2.0, you'll find that most macro news will unfold before your eyes in intricate connections. Finally, smart friends should have thought of this: all these attributions ultimately point to one direction—everything on-chain. RWA (Real World Assets) is not just talk. As for deeper topics like how the US government uses conflicts and other means to attract more funds into the US, everyone can freely think about these within this system. That's all, DYOR
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
Ajian found that many AI and even real people's logic is frighteningly straightforward. Take today's two signals as examples: Strategy adding positions = institutions are bullish = a bearish candle is just a shakeout; ETF outflows = institutions are running = the bull market is over. It's quite speechless, and they don't even say it needs to be considered much more complex. Just by factoring in a decade of US Treasury yields, you wouldn't come to such conclusions 🤡 #Strategy再购BTC,多家财库同步增持
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
A wave of $XRP positive news is on the way: Evernorth's merger vote plan with Armada Acquisition Corp. II will take place on September 30, aiming to list XRP's treasury company on Nasdaq under the name XRPN. If all goes well, XRP could gain new stock financing and institutional exposure. Of course, passing the vote is just the first step; XRP won't immediately rise. We still need to watch four key points: the vote, listing, financing, and actual coin buying.
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
A friend asked how Aave V4 supports using 7 types of Coinbase stock tokens as collateral to borrow USDC. Actually, it just broadens the channels for collateral. It's important to know that in traditional financial activities, collateral plays a crucial role. However, the market closure times of traditional stocks naturally conflict with the 7*24 hour settlement on-chain. So, even though Aave has implemented mechanisms to freeze oracle prices over the weekend, the risk of a gap jump at Monday's market open cannot be ruled out. In summary, I think this path is still long, and we shouldn't simply assume it's a positive for $AAVE
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 Hmm, this number trending is quite exaggerated, but I think the most important thing about this is not the positive news for $NVDA, but it confirms the second phase task of AI I analyzed before: while crazily investing in computing power, a large amount of stock buybacks are also happening. Because AI has gradually transitioned from the phase of aggressively grabbing money to distributing cash flow, the market will next trade on whether AI's capital expenditures can continue to convert into revenue and profit. Additionally, in the foreseeable future, AI data centers, chips, servers, and power infrastructure all require huge capital expenditures. And this money cannot all come from company cash flow. If AI-related companies increasingly rely on bond financing in the future, then the higher the US Treasury yields, the higher the capital cost for the AI industry. You need to understand this correlation between AI and US Treasuries. That's all, DYOR
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
Ajian emphasized once again that stablecoins will be an important component of the USD 2.0 system, far more than just simple on-chain dollars or crypto products; the real evolution of RWA is not just putting stocks or any traditional assets on-chain, but continuing to carry out financial activities after the assets are on-chain. Understanding these two points will help you see why Ajian says Ethena's inclusion of tokenized US stocks and stock perpetuals into the USDe system is something quite worth paying attention to. In traditional finance, basis trading involves buying spot → shorting futures → earning funding rates. Now Ethena is trying to incorporate stocks, tokenized stocks, and stock perpetuals into this structure. If this model succeeds, the future competition in DeFi metrics may shift from TVL to who can bring more traditional financial returns on-chain. Therefore, although Ethena is reducing some growth incentives, it is still expected to unlock about $46.9M $ENA on October 5. With commercialization benefits and supply-side bearish factors occurring simultaneously, I remain optimistic about $ENA.
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
$BTC is still hovering around $83K today, even showing some recovery. Keep in mind the current environment is quite extreme: 10-year US Treasury yields at 5.2%+, Brent crude around $105; about a 70% chance of a rate hike in October. Given this environment, Bitcoin maintaining relative stability is already a good signal, once again supporting the narrative that Crypto is independent from traditional liquidity demands.
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
Ajian teaches everyone how to simply judge whether a Crypto project is truly connected to traditional finance in the current hot RWA market by looking at three basic questions: Is there real asset backing? Is there real capital? Is there real settlement demand? If none of the three are present, it is recommended to just pass.
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
Breaking down the recent surge of $QNT for everyone: the main reason is that Quant won the bid for the On-Chain Money Initiative by the US Bank Clearing Association. Additionally, seven UK banks just completed collateralized payments using the Quant network, so the narrative is fully charged. It's important to know that banks need a network recognized by clearinghouses, which is a solid and powerful endorsement. Another point not to overlook is that the clearing system is scheduled to be available only in the first half of 2027. The current price increase is mainly driven by imagination and the chip structure. This is a typical spot narrative combined with contract-accelerated momentum. For ordinary traders, when seeing this news from Ajian, it's usually not suitable to chase the first big bullish candle. Instead, pay attention to funding rates, open interest, spot trading volume, and whether large holders are cashing out.
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
This is Ajian's judgment on the three major items $BZ $QQQ $XAU before the US August PCE data comes out this week DYOR, unity of knowledge and action
阿简在路上
阿简在路上
Just now: Binance Wallet officially supports using USDT to pay for gas on BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, and TRON, no longer requiring users to hold native tokens of each chain in advance. Everyone, hurry up and clear your inheritance like Ajian 🤡