LAB plummeted over 82% in one day, and I watched my account just puke... Today LAB gave me a complete zeroing crash, dropping straight from the high point down to around $1.13, with a single-day drop as high as 82%.\u2028I stared at the almost vertical big bearish candle on the K-line, really wanting to puke. A few days ago, when it was still high, everyone was shouting "new narrative is here" and "it's about to take off."\u2028But in the blink of an eye, it left countless people who rushed in stranded on the mountaintop.\u2028As an ordinary person, watching my account go to zero day by day, the feeling from excitement to despair is really damn painful. The most infuriating thing is that this kind of extreme market is often driven up by emotions and also smashed down by emotions.\u2028Trading competitions, leverage, FOMO... a bunch of people rush in thinking they've caught the wealth code, but when the big players or large funds start selling, they leave everyone completely wiped out. What I want to say now is:\u2028stop holding on stubbornly, brothers.\u2028Sometimes admitting defeat takes more courage than holding on.\u2028Watching your account turn green day by day, that sense of powerlessness and regret really can't be explained in a few words. $LAB is the best lesson this time:\u2028no matter how famous the name, how good the narrative, or how many events there are, once the chips are all sold and the emotions subside, what's left are just trapped retail investors.\u2028Those shouting "faith" and "long-termism" often just want you to buy at the top. I'm not gloating.\u2028I just feel heartbroken.\u2028Many people put their hopes, emotions, and fantasies about wealth all on a string of code.\u2028But reality gave the harshest lesson. Finally, I want to say:\u2028the biggest risk in crypto

Since May, the total market cap of stablecoins has shrunk by about $14 billion; although $4 billion returned in September, the total market cap only went back to around $270 billion. Many people's first reaction when seeing this is: "The funds have all fled, the crypto space is out of money." But I think it's not that simple. In fact, quite the opposite—stablecoins now resemble more of a "reservoir" for the crypto space rather than just pure safe-haven funds. ⸻ Why do I think this data is more worth watching than BTC price? Because BTC rising 5% or 10% only tells you how excited the market is today. What the stablecoin market cap tells you is: how much "ammunition" is still parked off-exchange within the crypto system. In the past few months, BTC has surged back from lows to 80,000 or even higher, but the stablecoin market cap has not experienced a corresponding explosive growth. This implies a very interesting phenomenon: this BTC rally was not driven by the entire market wildly expanding its balance sheets. In other words, prices are rising, but the reservoir hasn't noticeably grown. This explains why recently the market often feels like this: BTC can surge. $ETH can follow. Hot coins like ZEC, UNI, ONE can even gain dozens of points in a day. But if you look deep into altcoins, many still lack liquidity. The money isn't completely gone; it has just become very selective. ⸻ So the $4 billion increase in stablecoins in September, I actually see as a positive signal. Don't be fooled by just $4 billion. What really matters is that the direction has changed. After shrinking continuously since May, starting in September it began to recover

Looking at the quote of 83,285 on the screen, I really feel both anxious and angry. The big coin $BTC, that thing, a few days ago when it broke through 87,000, the whole network was shouting "The big bull market is here." So what happened these past two days? It directly performed a high-altitude free fall, hitting a low of 82,556, and now it's hovering around 83,000. I glanced at the 4-hour chart, and the more I look, the more I feel the manipulative whales are sharpening their knives. Sliding down from 87,283, the Bollinger Bands middle line at 83,734 is tightly pressing down on the head. MACD has a dead cross below the zero line, the red and green bars keep switching back and forth, showing no sign of strength at all. What's even more annoying is that from 84,000 to 85,000 above, it's all the brothers who chased the previous high and got buried, the selling pressure is extremely heavy. Below, 82,000 to 82,500 is considered the short-term bottom pants, barely holding up. Stuck right in the middle, can't go up or down. This kind of trend, the biggest taboo is chasing the rise and killing the fall. Honestly, the current direction is not on the K-line at all, it's all in the macro data. The Federal Reserve just finished raising rates, the dot plot is still so stubborn, and US Treasury yields are stuck at high levels. Tonight's PCE and Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real nodes deciding the fate of the big coin. If the data is bad, inflation cools down, and expectations for easing rise, then the big coin has the confidence to retest 85,000. If the data is good, the economy overheats, and high interest rates continue to press down, then most likely it will still crash down through 82,000 to find support. Also, don't just see news about whales closing short positions or some big players taking profits and think it's a reversal signal to blindly rush in. They are just cashing out, not bullish. Don't take this as a positive signal

Wednesday, good morning. Two quick updates: Spot gold $XAUT has fallen below 4,170, silver $XAG has dropped below 61. Let's first lay out the coordinates of this round of decline. XAUT 4-hour chart: On September 24, it was still at 4,368.9, then dropped to 4,117.5 in six days, a -5.7% decline; the worst was Monday—10-year US Treasury yield at 5.239%, real interest rates hitting the highest since 2008, gold price down 4% in a single day, domestic commodity gold ETFs down over 5%. Zooming out further: XAUT's high in the past year was 5,603.9, now at 4,170—a roughly 26% retracement from the peak. Why did gold fall first while the Middle East conflict hasn't cooled? The Strait of Hormuz deadlock remains, but the chain of oil price → inflation → yields has suppressed safe-haven buying: gold and silver yield nothing, and a 5.6% risk-free rate is their most expensive holding cost in 24 years. The "pump-and-dump" market mentioned last night matches the accounts this morning—the real safe-haven asset this round is the yield itself. On-chain segment: $XAUT followed spot gold down from 4,368.9 to 4,117.5. Three details: This morning it bounced back +0.92% to 4,175, $5 more expensive than spot gold—the anchor is intact. The drop is a gold price issue, not an on-chain issue. In the Chinese community, it's called "international dark gold": dark it may be, but the anchor is bright; 2. MACD histogram turned positive (+7.4), RSI6 returned to 51, RSI12/24 still hovering at 39/36—short-term recovery, medium-term still weak. The rebound is a real rebound, the trend hasn't reversed; 3. 24-hour volume

Late Tuesday night, a breaking news worth pausing for: The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is at 5.595% — the highest since 2002. In 2002, Bitcoin $BTC was still seven years away from being born. In other words: this is the first time in its existence that it has encountered such an interest rate. Let's lay out the facts. The 30-year yield has risen six consecutive times, each time hitting a new threshold: 30 years at 5.595%, the highest in 24 years; 10 years at 5.24%, the highest since 2007; 2 years at 4.9% — the last major maturity that hasn't broken 5%. The $32 trillion market has dropped 2.6% year-to-date. Last night saw a double hit to stocks and bonds: the Nasdaq fell nearly 1%, with chips and optical communications plunging; gold and silver also crashed — this is not a safe-haven rally, but a liquidity drain: selling everything to switch into cash. The two real exceptions worth a closer look are the China concept Golden Dragon +1.12% and Nvidia, boosted by a $150 billion buyback authorization, +1.68%. The money hasn't left, it just changed tables. This round of bond turmoil is fueled by three fires burning simultaneously: Middle East conflict pushing oil prices and inflation expectations higher; a corporate bond issuance wave — CICC points out that the main driver of this long-end rise is not Treasury issuance but the expansion of AI credit bonds, as tech giants extend financing durations with capital expenditures (remember Meta's 115 billion? The flip side of spending is a siphon effect in the bond market); plus concerns over government debt size. Citi has named this situation a “mild buyer strike.” Yen carry trade unwind is fanning the flames nearby. This is the fiercest since reciprocal tariffs began

There has been a very unusual scene these past two days. Gold $XAUT has fallen as if its safe-haven status has failed, while U.S. Treasury yields have been pushing higher all the way. On Monday, spot gold once dropped about 4% in a single day, hitting a low near $4111, the lowest since early August; meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached as high as 5.27%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield also surged to around 5.55%, basically returning to levels from over twenty years ago. (reuters.com⁠) My first reaction when I saw this was not "Why did gold suddenly stop being a safe haven?" Quite the opposite. What the market is really scrambling for now is cash flow and yield. Gold itself does not generate interest. But with the 10-year Treasury at 5.2% and the 30-year even at 5.5%, capital starts to recalculate: Why must I hold gold? Holding U.S. Treasuries at least provides coupon payments. So the opportunity cost of gold suddenly rises, and coupled with a stronger dollar, gold naturally suffers more. Reuters also directly attributes this round of gold decline to the surge in Treasury yields and the market's renewed bet on continued Fed rate hikes. (reuters.com⁠) What's more troublesome is why the 10-year Treasury yield can surge to 5.27%. This is the core issue. Previously, whenever Treasury yields rose, people liked to interpret it as "the Fed is going to raise rates." But now, it can't be seen that way alone. The short end is controlled by the Fed, but the long end is more dictated by the market itself. Now oil prices are also starting to move above $106, and the Middle East situation has not truly...