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溪哲-937
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The Coldcard vulnerability losses are still expanding, affecting about 4,500 addresses with a total close to $89 million. But the most noteworthy issue is not the numbers, but that the problem lies in the moment the wallet generates the mnemonic.
Many stolen wallets were never connected to the internet, and the devices were not taken. The old Coldcard firmware had insufficient randomness when generating seeds; some Mk3 firmware versions may have only about 40 bits of entropy left, while some older versions of other models have about 72 bits, whereas the target should be at least 128 bits. Attackers only need to know the pattern of seed generation in the old firmware, repeatedly calculate possible seeds and derive addresses, and when they find one with a balance, they directly obtain the private key.
Therefore, upgrading the firmware does not save old wallets. The official fix released on July 31 only addresses new seeds going forward; the private key space was fixed at the moment the old mnemonic was created, and upgrading will not increase randomness.
Many people understand cold wallet security as the private key not being online, which is correct, but that only solves how to store the key after generation, not how the private key is generated. If the random number generation phase is flawed, then even offline storage is just safeguarding a key that is easy to guess. All these on-chain transactions are legitimate; the blockchain cannot verify whether the key was computed. Not your keys not your coins addresses exchange risks; this time the warning is that risks do not disappear after self-custody, they just become trusting that the entire process has no vulnerabilities. How those 24 words are generated is as important as how they are protected.
#Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大
Last night, the nonfarm payrolls were much weaker than expected, with July employment decreasing by 23,000 instead of the anticipated increase of 80,000, and the previous two months were also revised downward. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 55% to 46%, US stocks rose, gold surged, but BTC remained stagnant around $65,000.
The market did not interpret the nonfarm data as a signal of easing because the US is facing a combination of cooling employment and persistent inflation; June CPI was still at 3.5%, and PCE at 3.7%. Rate hikes can suppress inflation, but employment has turned negative; not hiking risks inflation rising again, so both options are difficult.
The details were also weak: the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but 264,000 people left the labor force, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month. Weak employment is not necessarily positive for BTC; it depends on whether inflation is falling simultaneously. The environment constrained on both fronts is the most challenging.
Therefore, the CPI on August 12 is more critical than the nonfarm data. Last month, gasoline prices rose 26.7% year-over-year; how much energy impact remains will directly determine the direction in September. If CPI cools, BTC may have room to catch up instead of following gold's rise; if CPI rises, rate hike expectations will be pulled back.
What the market is waiting for is not just an employment report, but whether the US will move toward easing after inflation cools, or remain stuck in a deadlock of weakening employment but still high inflation.
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
The CLARITY Act vote has been delayed again. The Senate is in recess in August, missing the original voting window, so the actual vote is pushed to September. The bill has actually progressed quite far, having passed the House 294 to 134 and advanced through the Senate Banking Committee 15 to 9, but now it’s stuck on the most difficult parts.
The latest version is 616 pages long, with the biggest controversy around the ethics provisions, which restrict the president, members of Congress, and other senior officials from profiting from digital assets during their terms, but includes an expiration date of January 20, 2029. Supporters fear conflicts of interest, while opponents think the restrictions are insufficient and the expiration too soon. Stablecoins are also hard to negotiate; banks worry about losing deposits to yield, while the crypto industry fears restrictions will stifle innovation.
The Senate needs 60 votes to advance, and any breakdown on ethics, stablecoins, or DeFi could cause failure. Returning in September means racing against the midterm elections, so time is tight.
The impact on BTC is actually limited, as its position is already clear. The real changes affect gray-area tokens, exchanges, and DeFi participants. The bill’s enactment will bring a comprehensive federal digital asset framework, which is much more important for altcoins and domestic companies. The delay doesn’t equal bad news; reaching an agreement in September would have a far greater positive impact than the policy itself. Continued delays just mean more waiting.
#CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解
#Western Union Stablecoin Card Launches, Visa Payment Scenarios Advance Again
The real challenge for stablecoins to enter everyday payments has never been whether on-chain transfers are fast enough. USDT and USDC have long been available 24/7 with instant or near-instant transfers in minutes or even seconds. The real difficulty comes after the money arrives in the wallet—what does the average person do next? To buy something, they usually have to first sell the stablecoin, convert it to local fiat currency, withdraw it to a bank, and then use a bank card to pay. The on-chain part is fast, but the last mile still loops back to the traditional financial system.
Western Union’s new Stablecard solves exactly this step. This card is based on Western Union’s own USD stablecoin USDPT and connects to the Visa payment network. After receiving USDPT, users can keep the dollar value in their wallet and pay directly by swiping the Visa card without manually converting stablecoins to a bank account each time.
The initial rollout covers 37 markets, with about 175 million merchant points accepting Visa payments, and Western Union plans to expand further.
These numbers together make this crypto card far more significant. Western Union itself has over 100 million customers, operates in more than 200 countries and regions, and has traditionally excelled in cross-border remittances and a vast offline network. Now USDPT brings on-chain dollars into the mix. USDPT is issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, and runs on Solana. Western Union also announced the Digital Asset Network, connecting over 360,000 cash pickup points worldwide through this network.
This changes the money flow path. The sender can still use traditional remittance, but the receiver can get USDPT. If they want to hold dollars, they keep it in the wallet; if they want to spend it directly, they swipe the Visa card; if they need cash, they can use Western Union’s existing offline network to exchange. Here, stablecoins are no longer just intermediate assets on exchanges but start to connect remittance, holding, spending, and cash withdrawal simultaneously.
This is particularly interesting for Solana. Past discussions about a chain’s value often focus on TPS, fees, DEX volume, and MEME activity, but payment applications look at a different set of metrics: how much real money flows daily, how many users settle payments, whether funds need to flow 24/7, and if transactions can sustain. Western Union issuing USDPT on Solana effectively brings a portion of real-world cross-border payment demand directly onto this chain.
Its relationship with Visa is also noteworthy. Visa has been promoting stablecoin settlement for years, already using USDC for some settlements on Solana and other networks. Now Stablecard puts stablecoins directly into consumers’ hands. Previously, Visa used stablecoins for backend settlement, invisible to ordinary consumers; now users hold stablecoins but can still spend like with a regular bank card.
These two paths are converging. The chain handles asset movement and settlement, Visa continues to manage the global merchant acceptance network, and users don’t even need to know which chain processes their payment. For stablecoins, this model is likely more practical than requiring every merchant to integrate wallets and accept USDC or USDPT themselves. It’s very difficult to have hundreds of millions of merchants overhaul their payment systems, but integrating stablecoins into the existing Visa network lowers the barrier significantly.
Western Union is not starting from scratch. It already processes massive cross-border funds annually; now it’s just moving part of the settlement layer on-chain and reconnecting stablecoins to its existing customers, agents, and cash network.
Therefore, the immediate transaction volume Stablecard brings to SOL is less important than whether this model can be replicated. If more banks, remittance companies, and fintech platforms adopt similar structures—settling with stablecoins in the backend while continuing to accept Visa, Mastercard, and local payment networks in the frontend—stablecoin adoption might never happen by everyone starting to pay with crypto wallets. Instead, it could quietly embed itself into existing payment products. Users still swipe the familiar card, merchants receive normal settlements, but the layer responsible for cross-border fund movement gradually shifts to on-chain dollars.
#Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元
Polymarket is preparing to raise funds again, and this round involves a substantial amount, reportedly around $1 billion, with a target valuation directly aiming above $20 billion.
Looking at the timeline makes it clearer. In October last year, its valuation was only about $9 billion. In April this year, it completed a round of about $1 billion in financing, raising the valuation to around $15 billion. Just a few months later, if this new round is successful, the valuation will jump significantly again. In less than a year, it has gone from $9 billion to $20 billion, more than doubling.
Why is capital willing to invest so much? Simply put, it turns expectations that could only be discussed into tradable prices. Whether BTC can reach $100,000 by the end of the year, whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next time, or when a certain bill will pass—these used to be opinions only on social platforms, but now each can become a probability involving real money.
Currently, mainstream coins have not shown a very clear major trend. BTC is still fluctuating around $64,000, ETH around $1,900, and SOL has been hovering in the $70+ range. But the market has not lost trading demand because of this; people have just changed the trading object to something else—the probability of a future event occurring. Polymarket happens to have turned this demand into a business, and it is growing bigger and bigger.
More importantly, it is no longer just telling stories through fundraising. Information disclosed this year shows its annualized revenue has exceeded $1 billion. Roughly calculating with the current $20 billion valuation under negotiation, the multiple is about 20x. For a platform still rapidly expanding, with users and trading categories not fully developed, capital is clearly betting that prediction markets will become a long-term financial category.
This matter is directly related to BTC. BTC is one of the world's longest trading hours and most liquid crypto assets, naturally fostering many prediction markets around it. Besides spot, perpetual, and options, there is now an additional layer of event contracts.
Interestingly, the prices in prediction markets do not always align with probabilities calculated from traditional derivatives. A study this year compared Polymarket with several BTC markets on Binance and found an average price difference of about 6.3 percentage points between their implied probabilities, and this gap does not disappear immediately. This indicates that prediction markets include not only professional derivatives capital but also a large amount of money based on news, sentiment, and personal judgment.
ETH and SOL are affected somewhat differently. Polymarket itself has not added much direct value to ETH or SOL despite the valuation increase. It mainly runs on the Polygon ecosystem, settles in USDC, and has not issued its own token. But this is precisely the most convincing point: on-chain applications do not necessarily need to issue tokens to reach valuations of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. As long as users are truly willing to come, trading volume can be sustained, and the platform can collect revenue, it can grow into a very large business.
This is a very realistic reference for smart contract platforms like ETH and SOL. The market used to compare public chains by TPS, Gas fees, and TVL, but ultimately what determines a chain's value is whether it can grow products that users want to use daily. Prediction markets are currently the fastest-growing category.
Moreover, competition is already fierce. Polymarket's main competitor, Kalshi, has also seen its valuation rise, and together they represent a significant figure. The entire prediction market sector can no longer be regarded as a marginal crypto toy.
Therefore, the most noteworthy aspect of this funding round is not whether the final valuation reaches $19 billion, $20 billion, or even higher. What really deserves attention is that the crypto market is gradually expanding from trading assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL to trading all events that might affect these assets. Coin prices are one market; probabilities are becoming another. In the future, judging market sentiment may not only rely on candlestick charts and capital flows but also on a real-time changing probability table.
#Iran-Oman Navigation Agreement Stalled, Oil Price Risks Heating Up
BTC has been hovering around $65,000 these past two days, ETH has returned above $1,900, and SOL is near $74. But there is one variable that cannot be viewed merely as international news: whether the Strait of Hormuz can truly resume normal navigation.
Iran and Oman are pushing a new navigation plan. A few days ago, the market briefly reacted to progress in negotiations by pushing Brent crude oil prices down from highs. However, several core conditions in the negotiations remain unresolved. Iran wants to charge 5% to 7% of the cargo value for ships passing through the strait, Oman proposes about 3%, and the U.S. demands no fees at all.
Though the difference seems to be just a few percentage points, actual implementation is much more complicated. Relevant Iranian entities are still under U.S. sanctions. If shipowners pay the fees, it not only increases costs but also risks sanctions and insurance invalidation. Because of this, even with news of an imminent agreement, shipping companies have not returned in large numbers.
Data illustrates the issue best. From Monday to Thursday this week, only 33 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, compared to 50 during the same period last week, and only 4 ships passed on Thursday. Before the conflict, the strait's normal weekly traffic was about 130 to 140 ships. This means the current shipping volume is still far from normal levels.
This explains why, although oil prices have retreated from previous highs, the risk has not completely disappeared. Brent crude remains near $82 today, having briefly surged back above $83 earlier.
What does this have to do with BTC? The most direct link is inflation. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, energy prices will rise again, making it difficult for U.S. inflation to ease smoothly. Rising oil prices eventually transmit to transportation, manufacturing, aviation, logistics, and consumer prices, pushing back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts or pauses in tightening.
Currently, BTC, ETH, and SOL are all in a phase highly sensitive to liquidity. BTC is around $64,700 today with little 24-hour change, while the entire CoinDesk 20 index fell about 0.2% in the same period.
On the surface, BTC appears resilient, but the derivatives market has started to show caution. The most active BTC options in the past 24 hours are concentrated on $60,000 and $62,000 puts, while ETH's most popular options are $2,000 calls. This difference is interesting. BTC is currently more of a market defensive and institutional capital holding, so even with oil prices, geopolitical risks, and U.S. Treasury yields pressuring it, the price has not yet clearly broken down.
ETH is different. ETH is near $1,930, just a few percentage points below $2,000. If oil prices continue to fall and inflation pressure eases, risk appetite could return, and ETH breaking above $2,000 would easily signal the market reloading high-beta assets.
SOL is even more sensitive. SOL is around $74 and inherently more volatile than BTC. When the market enters a risk-on phase, capital usually flows gradually from BTC to assets like ETH and SOL. But if oil prices surge quickly again and U.S. Treasury yields rise, SOL tends to feel the pressure before BTC during capital contraction.
So, although BTC, ETH, and SOL appear to be trading sideways recently, behind the scenes they are waiting for several variables to provide answers. On one side, employment is weakening, and the market hopes the Fed will stop tightening; on the other side, Middle East tensions and oil prices could push inflation back up. These two forces are currently pulling in opposite directions.
Another detail worth noting: gold has risen to around $4,300 today, gaining about 1.5% in a single day, indicating traditional capital still prioritizes gold for hedging amid geopolitical uncertainty. BTC has not surged in tandem, showing the market has not fully traded it according to gold's logic. But BTC also has not fallen below $60,000 despite oil price and war risks.
This creates a somewhat unique situation: gold handles hedging, BTC has buyers, and ETH and SOL await risk appetite to decide their direction.
Therefore, what deserves more attention next is the actual navigation volume through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than simply watching which side announces negotiation progress. If weekly traffic gradually recovers from the current few dozen ships to over 100, the war risk premium will continue to exit oil prices, energy inflation pressure will ease, and BTC, ETH, and SOL will all benefit.
Conversely, if negotiations remain stuck on fees, sanctions, and insurance issues, shipping volume fails to recover, and oil prices break upward again, the market will be trading not just Middle East risk. It will revert to inflation risk, interest rate risk, and eventually impact BTC, ETH, and SOL valuations.
BTC near $65,000 looks calm now, but the oil price line may be more worth watching than the one or two small candles on the K-line chart.
#Federal Reserve Hawkish Signals Heat Up, Can Weak Employment Outweigh Inflation?
In the past two days, U.S. employment data has clearly cooled down, but BTC, ETH, and SOL have not surged upward simply based on the old logic of "poor employment equals rate cuts." The issue this time is that the Federal Reserve is not facing a decision about whether to cut rates, but rather whether it needs to continue raising rates given that inflation still cannot be suppressed.
Let's first look at employment. U.S. July ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, significantly below market expectations, and June data was revised down to 95,000. Normally, after such data is released, the market should lower rate hike expectations, which would be positive for liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC.
However, the signals the Fed is currently sending are not that simple. At the end of July's FOMC meeting, rates were kept at 3.50% to 3.75%, but 3 of the 12 voting members directly called for a 25 basis point hike. Subsequently, St. Louis Fed President Mouselm publicly stated that the last meeting should have raised rates, and that the earlier, smaller, and gradual hikes might result in lower costs.
This is one of the reasons why mainstream coins have been moving somewhat awkwardly recently. BTC is currently around $64,300, with little movement over the week. From August 3 to 5, about $626 million flowed into U.S. spot BTC funds, which is not a small amount, yet BTC still hasn't broken through the $66,000 level.
There are buyers, but the price isn't moving, which is worth noting. It indicates that there is indeed ETF money supporting BTC at the lower levels, but there are also concerns weighing on rates, inflation, and risk asset valuations. Funds are willing to buy around $63,000 to $64,000 but are not yet willing to chase a rally betting on the next round of liquidity easing.
ETH and SOL's reactions are even more pronounced. ETH is currently around $1,897, slightly down over the week, and SOL is near $73, down more than 1% on the day and nearly 2% over the week. BTC at least has continuous support from spot ETF funds, while ETH and SOL rely more on the overall crypto market's risk appetite. When the market re-prices "high rates staying longer," funds tend to first shrink altcoins and high Beta assets, with BTC being affected last.
Therefore, what will truly determine the direction of mainstream coins next is likely not a single employment report, but the combination of employment and inflation and whether the Fed can maintain its hawkish stance. The July CPI to be released next week is crucial, with the market currently expecting a 3.4% year-over-year increase and core CPI up 2.5% year-over-year.
If employment continues to weaken and CPI also shows clear cooling, the Fed's rationale for rate hikes will be weakened. For the crypto market, this combination is truly comfortable: the economy is not strong enough to force the Fed to tighten, and inflation is not high enough to require further hikes. At that time, the repeated support for BTC around $63,000 to $64,000 has a better chance of turning into upward momentum.
But if employment weakens while CPI remains above expectations, the situation becomes more complicated. This means the economy is cooling but inflation is not coming down accordingly. The Fed will find it difficult to ease while needing to consider the economy and employment. The market fears this kind of in-between state the most. BTC might still hold some losses thanks to ETF funds, but ETH and SOL usually face more direct pressure.
Currently, the market pricing for a September rate hike is close to 60%. So when looking at BTC, ETH, and SOL, focusing only on employment data is insufficient. More important is to observe the sequence: can weak employment first lower rate hike expectations, and then can CPI confirm that inflation is truly cooling? If both happen, after BTC breaks through $66,000, ETH and SOL will more easily follow to revive risk appetite.
Conversely, if next week's CPI again exceeds expectations, the recent easing hopes brought by employment data may quickly be withdrawn. What truly determines the next phase for mainstream coins this time is not who calls for rate cuts first, but whether the pace of employment cooling can ultimately outpace inflation.