毓鑫YuXin

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☯️ 9.6｜The day after the non-farm payrolls, don't rush to guess a rebound yet. BTC has touched around 80000 again; next, we need to see if it can hold this time. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Bingshen, day of Guiwei. Gui water sits on Wei earth, and I prefer to describe today as "digestion": the news is out, bulls and bears have battled once, now it depends on how the funds respond. Metaphysics is just traditional cultural interest; real trading still depends on price and volume. Let's first look at Crypto. BTC is about 79956 USDT, up approximately 0.41% in 24 hours, range 79450—80198. So today we can no longer say "24-hour drop of 1%—2%". It looks more like a slight recovery, but there's still a tug-of-war near 80000, one step away from truly holding above resistance. BTC outlook today: Support: 78500—79000 Strong support: 77000—77500 Resistance: 80500—81000 Strong resistance: 82000—82500 These are my observation ranges, not guaranteed bounce points when prices hit them. If BTC can hold near 79000 and then reclaim 80500, the recovery has conditions to continue upward; if it can't break through 80500, treat it as consolidation and don't chase after a single bullish candle. Downside focus is 78500. If broken, watch for tests at 77000—77500; if 77000 also fails, then reassess 75500—76500. But don't assume that unbroken support necessarily means "liquidation of leverage." Whether there is sustained buying depends on volume and subsequent price action. ETH at the same time is about 2497.44 USDT, up about 1.76% in 24 hours, range 2445—2499.99, showing slightly stronger short-term performance than BTC, already at the doorstep of 2500. ETH outlook today: Support: 2420—2450 Strong support: 2350—2380 Resistance: 2500—2520 Strong resistance: 2550—2600 2500 remains a key barrier. Touching it and holding it are two different things. If ETH breaks 2500—2520 and BTC reclaims 80500, altcoin sentiment has a better chance to recover. Conversely, if BTC weakens and ETH falls below 2450, don't assume a full market rally just because some small coins are lively. Now let's look at US stocks. Markets were closed over the weekend; referencing Friday's performance: Dow down 0.51%, S&P down 0.38%, Nasdaq down 0.29%. The market's dilemma isn't just how much indexes fell, but whether strong employment will keep interest rates high. Previously, there was hope for easing rate pressure, but the non-farm data added uncertainty. Next week I continue to watch: S&P: support 7680—7700, resistance 7780—7800. Nasdaq: support 26300—26500, resistance 26700—26800. For tech stocks to continue recovering, besides company earnings, we need to see if US Treasury yields can ease. If yields keep rising, high-valuation sectors remain vulnerable. Also, Monday, September 7 is US Labor Day; US stock markets will be closed. Crypto trades as usual, but with less traditional market participation, pay extra attention to volume during breakouts; don't mistake spikes for direction. Gold over the weekend also references Friday's prices. Spot price about 4419 USD, December futures about 4476.60 USD; spot and futures should not be mixed. After trading resumes, I focus on: Support: 4400—4420 Strong support: 4350—4380 Resistance: 4460—4480 Strong resistance: 4500—4530 If it holds near 4400, we can continue to watch recovery; but only reclaiming upper resistance makes the rebound more convincing. If 4350 breaks, be more cautious and don't judge cheapness just by "it has fallen a lot." Oil prices also need monitoring. On Friday, Brent was 96.28 USD, WTI 91.48 USD. High oil prices make it hard for inflation worries to fully fade, one reason the market hesitates to bet on rate easing. So next, I mainly watch three things: Whether BTC can reclaim 80500 instead of just hovering near 80000. Whether ETH can hold 2500 instead of just touching and retreating. Whether the US dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen after traditional markets reopen. Today's approach remains: watch for absorption first, don't chase the first rebound. BTC holds lower support and reclaims 80500, then watch 82000—82500; ETH holds 2500—2520, then watch 2550—2600. If conditions aren't met, wait and don't participate in every fluctuation. On Guiwei day, I lean more toward "digestion," not rushing to pick sides. This post-non-farm pullback may be just a short-term adjustment or may widen; no need to conclude firmly yet. Where price reclaims and whether there's support on dips is more useful than slogans. With the weekend and US long weekend, be wary of sudden spikes. Don't mistake the first rebound for a reversal; position and risk control are more important than guessing the next candle. Do you think BTC will first hold 80500 or retest 79000? The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

☯️ 9.5｜The "touchstone" of the non-farm payrolls has finally dropped, and it hit quite hard. Last night's result was very straightforward: employment data was too strong, the market initially traded "rate hike cooldown," but then quickly reversed. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Bingshen, day of Renwu. Ren water sits on Wu fire, water and fire clash; on the market chart, it looks like emotions want to rise, but macro forces keep pulling back. Simply put, the market first grabbed a rebound yesterday, then immediately re-priced rates after the non-farm data release. Entering the weekend today, it will most likely be a volatile consolidation after high fluctuations. Metaphysics is just an aid; in the end, price decides. BTC is currently at $79,608, down about 1.5% in 24 hours, ranging between $78,650 and $81,420. Before the non-farm release, BTC was above $81,000; after the data came out, it quickly dropped. The reason is simple: employment was much stronger than expected, and the market re-bet on Fed rate hikes. Key BTC levels today: Support: 78,500–79,000 Strong Support: 77,000–77,500 Resistance: 80,500–81,000 Strong Resistance: 82,000–82,500 What was truly knocked down yesterday was not the entire uptrend structure but the expectation of "breaking through 82,500 soon." If BTC can hold 78,500–79,000 and reclaim 80,500, it means last night’s move was mostly macro-driven deleveraging, and there’s still a chance to retest 81,000–82,500 later. But if it continues to break below 78,000 over the weekend, especially if it can’t hold 77,000, then the big bullish candle from the day before yesterday will have been mostly eaten up, and the next support to watch is 75,500–76,500. ETH has also given back part of its previous gains, currently at $2,452.12, down about 2.1% in 24 hours, ranging between $2,431 and $2,547. ETH levels today: Support: 2,420–2,450 Strong Support: 2,350–2,380 Resistance: 2,500–2,520 Strong Resistance: 2,550–2,600 2,500 remains an important dividing line for altcoin sentiment. ETH reclaiming 2,500, along with BTC recovering 80,500, creates conditions for altcoins to continue repairing; if ETH can’t hold 2,420, don’t rush to buy altcoins, as funds may return to defensive mode. Looking at US stocks. On Friday, US stocks ultimately couldn’t withstand the yield pressure brought by the non-farm data. The Dow closed at 53,413.60, down 0.51%; the S&P 500 closed at 7,718.41, down 0.38%; the Nasdaq closed at 26,506.99, down 0.29%. The 2-year US Treasury yield also rose to around 4.37%. The logic is quite simple: Employment too strong → rate hike probability rises → US Treasury yields rise → high-valuation risk assets under pressure. US August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, nearly three times the market expectation of 56,000; unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and June and July employment numbers were revised up by a total of 55,000. After the data release, the probability of a September rate hike briefly surged to about 65% intraday, then fell back to 58.4% near the US market close. The day before, the market was trading: Fed might pause → risk assets rise. Now it has turned into: The economy is still resilient → Fed still has room to hike. Next week, the S&P is expected to find support at 7,680–7,700, resistance at 7,780–7,800; the Nasdaq support is 26,300–26,500, resistance at 26,700–26,800. As long as US Treasury yields continue to rise, tech stocks won’t feel comfortable in the short term. Gold’s reaction is even more direct. After the non-farm release, spot gold hit a low near $4,365 intraday, then rebounded to around $4,419, down about 1.2%; December gold futures fell 1.4%, closing at $4,476.60. Gold levels today: Support: 4,400–4,420 Strong Support: 4,350–4,380 Resistance: 4,460–4,480 Strong Resistance: 4,500–4,530 Gold’s recent rise was mainly trading on rate hike cooldown expectations. Now the non-farm data partly reverses that logic, and 4,500 has become a clear resistance again. Unless next week’s CPI cools significantly and rate hike expectations are pushed down, gold will find it hard to rally smoothly like the past few days. If 4,350 can’t hold, the short-term structure needs to be reassessed. Oil prices also cannot be ignored. Brent closed Friday at $96.28, WTI at $91.48, up about 9.3% and 9.7% respectively for the week. Oil prices remain high, indicating inflation pressure from Middle East tensions still hangs over the market. The macro focus is shifting from non-farm payrolls to US CPI and PPI. Such strong employment gives the Fed confidence to remain hawkish. If inflation data remains hot, the probability of a September rate hike may continue to rise; if CPI is significantly below expectations, last night’s drop may be quickly repaired. So today I’m mainly watching three things: First, can BTC hold 78,500–79,000? Holding means mainly deleveraging; breaking below 77,000 means the structure is clearly weak. Second, will US Treasury yields continue to rise? Currently, their impact on Crypto, US stocks, and gold may be more important than many industry news. Third, can gold hold 4,400? If gold continues to fall while the dollar and yields rise, it means funds are reinforcing the "high rates stay longer" trade. But I’m not too pessimistic today. With such strong non-farm data, BTC dropping from above 81,000 but still holding near 79,000 means there are still buyers below. If BTC can slowly digest volatility between 78,500 and 80,500 over the weekend instead of accelerating downward, it would be a relatively healthy deleveraging. Conditions for turning strong again are: BTC reclaiming 80,500, then looking at 82,000–82,500; ETH reclaiming 2,500, then looking at 2,550–2,600. Before that, watch for support; don’t chase the first rebound. Renwu day, water and fire clash. The day before yesterday, the market was still trading "pause rate hikes," but yesterday’s non-farm data told everyone: it’s not that simple. The most comfortable next move is not an immediate surge, but BTC first solidifying the 78,000–80,000 range, clearing high leverage, then waiting for inflation data to decide the next direction. Key levels today: BTC: 78,500 / 80,500 ETH: 2,420 / 2,500 Gold: 4,400 / 4,500 S&P: 7,700 / 7,800 Nasdaq: 26,500 / 26,800 Liquidity is thin over the weekend; spikes can come anytime. Position sizing and stop losses are more important than guessing price direction. The above is just my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

For ordinary people who want to gradually turn their financial situation around through investing, the most important concern is not how much principal they currently have, but how much time they still have. Many people get stuck on the principal right from the start. They have 10,000 and feel it’s meaningless; if they have 50,000, they think they need at least 500,000 to even talk about investing. Then they get more and more anxious, thinking that with such a small principal, what’s the use of a 10% annual return? They feel they must double their money in a year, find a 100x coin, and preferably solve all their life problems in one go. So they open leverage, chase altcoins, jump on hot trends, but after one pullback, their principal is gone first. The most ironic thing is that those with less principal tend to complain that compound interest is too slow. But what’s truly valuable for ordinary young people is not the principal, but time. You might still have 20, 30, or even 40 years to let your income, savings, and assets grow together. Yet many people, trying to compensate for their small principal, actively throw away their greatest advantage by gambling their 20 years on doubling their money in a month — that’s the worst trade. If you really are an ordinary office worker, I actually suggest keeping your investing simple. Step one: Keep enough cash. Prepare at least 3 to 6 months of living expenses separately. This money is not for bottom-fishing or rushing in when BTC crashes. Its main purpose is to ensure that even if you lose your job or suddenly need money at home, you won’t be forced to sell at the worst market times. Step two: Invest a fixed amount every month, regardless of mood. For example, after receiving your income, directly take out 10% to 30% to invest. If your salary is 10,000, start with 1,000 to 3,000; increase gradually as your salary rises. It doesn’t matter if your principal is small; the most important thing is to make buying assets every month a habit. Don’t stop just because the market fell this month or rush in wildly when it rises. If you can automate your investments, do it. Often your biggest enemy is not the market but your own hands. Step three: Put most of your money into things you truly understand. Ordinary people don’t need 20 coins or 30 stocks in their accounts. More doesn’t mean more professional; often it means you don’t even know what you bought. You can put most of your long-term funds into relatively simple core assets, like broad-based indexes, gold, or BTC that you truly understand and are willing to endure volatility for. As for small coins, speculative stocks, Meme, options, and other highly volatile assets, if you really want to play, keep a small portion, like 5% to 10% of your total assets. If they soar, you feel involved; if they go to zero, it won’t break your bones. Step four: Ordinary people should avoid using leverage for long-term investing. Compound interest’s biggest fear is not a slightly lower return but going to zero. Losing 50% of 1 million leaves 500,000; to get back to 1 million, you need 100% gain. So the most important thing in long-term investing is never how much I can earn in a year, but how to ensure I’m still in the game ten years later. Leverage, full positions, borrowing to invest — their biggest danger is wiping out decades of your time advantage in one go. Step five: Write your plan before a big market drop. Don’t wait until BTC falls 20% or the US stock market crashes to start thinking about selling. You can set rules in advance, like buying fixed amounts in normal months, still buying normally if it falls 10%, buying a bit more if it falls 20% and gradually adding in several parts if it falls over 30%. But one premise: only use spare money. Don’t use rent, children’s tuition, or credit card money to bottom-fish gold dips. The real bottom is often deeper than you think. Step six: Review your portfolio once or twice a year. Ordinary people don’t need to check their accounts daily. Once a year, check if your income has increased, your savings rate has improved, your asset allocation hasn’t drifted, you haven’t bought a bunch of things you can’t explain logically, and your risk isn’t higher than last year. Adjust if you find problems; don’t change your strategy eight times a day. Plans that can be executed for ten years are usually very boring. Step seven, the most important: don’t just think about increasing investment returns, also find ways to increase your income. With 100,000 principal, earning 5% more annually only adds 5,000 a year. But if you increase your annual income from 200,000 to 300,000 through job changes, side jobs, sales, or learning skills, and can invest an extra 50,000 to 100,000 each year, the effect might be much greater than trying to boost your return from 10% to 15% every day. So the real wealth formula for ordinary people is simple: increase income, control spending, keep saving, buy assets long-term, and avoid liquidation. S&P, Nasdaq, gold, BTC — what exactly to buy is important, but more important than what to buy is whether you can keep buying, hold on, have cash to survive the worst market times, and avoid fatal mistakes for ten years. The most counterintuitive thing about investing is here. A 30% gain in a day is sexy, doubling in a month is sexy, the next 100x sounds even sexier. But real wealth accumulation is often boring as hell: make money, save money, buy assets, keep making money, keep buying, don’t get liquidated, don’t make big mistakes, live a little longer. It’s that simple. Whether ordinary people can build assets in the end often depends not on catching some once-in-a-lifetime lucky break, but on whether they can stay at the table. Having a small principal is not scary; what’s truly scary is starting to hate the slowness of time because your principal is small. Investing is not a race to get rich first; first fix your cash flow, then find assets you truly understand, control risk, and then give it time. Many years later, you’ll realize time is the only leverage ordinary people can use for free without paying interest.

☯️ 9.4｜The rebound from last night has already played out, but today's real test is not whether it can continue to rise, but whether this round of rebound can hold through tonight's non-farm payrolls. Today is the Bingwu year, Bingshen month, Xinsi day. Xin metal sits on Si fire, which means "fire refining true gold"—the market indeed has strength, but the closer it gets to a critical point, the easier it is to be tested. In trading terms, the repair last night was very quick; today, I'm reluctant to blindly chase the rise and would rather see if there is real money backing the breakout. Metaphysics is just a reference; ultimately, we still look at the price. First, let's look at Crypto. BTC is now around 81,433, up 5.6% in 24 hours, with a daily low of 76,941 and a high of 82,262, and a trading volume of about 40.7 billion. The key change last night was BTC reclaiming 80,000, even touching above 82,200 intraday. For BTC today, watch these levels: support from 80,500 to 81,000, strong support at 80,000. Resistance from 82,200 to 82,500, strong resistance from 83,500 to 84,000. The question has shifted from "can it stand back above 80,000" to "can 80,000 turn from resistance into support." If BTC can hold the 80,500 to 81,000 pullback and then volume expands to stabilize above 82,500, I will continue to look at 83,500 to 84,000. But if it rallies high and quickly falls back below 80,000, then last night's move looks more like a rebound triggered by news, and we need to watch the 78,500 to 79,000 support again. ETH has also clearly strengthened, now around 2,512, up 5.5% in 24 hours, with a daily low of 2,370 and a high of 2,527, and a volume of about 18.3 billion. For ETH today: support from 2,480 to 2,500, strong support from 2,420 to 2,450, resistance from 2,520 to 2,550, strong resistance at 2,600. Holding 2,500 means altcoin sentiment can continue to recover; breaking below 2,480 means don't rush to call a full bull market. Watch ETH break 2,550 before looking at 2,600. Only when BTC and ETH both hold key levels can capital truly spread from mainstream to altcoins. Now looking at US stocks. Last night, the US stock rebound was strong: Dow closed at 53,686.11, up 1.18%; S&P closed at 7,747.71, up 1.06%; Nasdaq closed at 26,584.06, up 1.40%. Nvidia rose 1.8%, Snowflake surged 16.6%, Strategy up 17.6%, Coinbase up 10.1%. Today, watch S&P support at 7,700 to 7,720, resistance at 7,780 to 7,800; Nasdaq support at 26,300 to 26,500, resistance at 26,700 to 26,800. What drove the market last night was not just the tech stock rebound but more importantly the sudden cooling of Fed rate hike expectations. Fed Governor Waller said if subsequent data continues to confirm inflation easing, he tends to keep rates unchanged in September. The market's bet on a 25 basis point hike in September dropped from 63.2% to about 50%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 4.76%. The logic chain last night was clear: rate hike expectations fall, Treasury yields decline, US stocks rise, BTC rises, gold strengthens. This rally is not Crypto performing alone but a repair across all risk assets. Whether the rebound continues ultimately depends on whether tonight's non-farm payrolls can support the logic of "cooling employment but economy not yet in freefall." Gold also clearly rebounded last night, spot gold rose to about 4,488.54, up about 2.3%, futures closed at 4,539.9. Behind this is also the dollar and Treasury yields falling, plus easing rate hike bets. For gold today: support from 4,440 to 4,460, strong support from 4,400 to 4,420, resistance from 4,490 to 4,500, strong resistance from 4,530 to 4,550. 4,500 remains the most direct psychological barrier. If spot gold truly holds above 4,500, then watch 4,530 to 4,550; if non-farm is significantly stronger than expected and yields rise again, gold may give back some of yesterday's gains. So today, all assets are essentially waiting for the same answer—tonight's US August non-farm payroll data. The market expects about 56,000 new jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Previously, ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, below the expected 48,000, but the latest initial jobless claims are 206,000, which is not high. Employment is indeed cooling but not bad enough for the market to immediately trade a recession. For risk assets, the most comfortable outcome is not worse data but moderate cooling—enough to lower rate hike expectations without triggering hard landing fears. Tonight, there are three main scenarios: First, non-farm moderately below expectations. This is the best outcome for risk assets, rate hike probability continues to fall, Treasury yields decline, BTC, gold, and tech stocks have conditions to continue advancing. Second, non-farm significantly above expectations. Then rate hike trades may return, yields rebound, last night's gains could look like a premature run-up, and BTC may rally high then fall back. Third, non-farm extremely weak, even negative growth again. The market may first price in a pause in rate hikes but then must guard against recession logic taking over. The real benefit to risk assets is moderate cooling, not a sudden employment collapse. Oil prices cannot be ignored either. Brent closed at 95.52 USD, WTI at 91.30 USD, both hitting six-week highs intraday. Oil prices not falling means inflation risks from Middle East tensions remain overhead. As long as oil prices approach 100 USD, the market always has a potential inflation rebound line. Today I’m watching a few levels: BTC at 80,000 and 82,500; ETH at 2,500 and 2,550; gold at 4,450 and 4,500; S&P at 7,700 and 7,800; Nasdaq at 26,500 and 26,800. Xinsi day, fire refines Xin metal. The market has already played out the rebound yesterday; today we need to verify whether this is the first step of a reversal or just a run-up before the non-farm release. I tend to watch the support first and won’t chase high just because of a big bullish candle. BTC holding 80,000 without breaking, ETH stabilizing at 2,500, is a healthier strong performance; if non-farm is moderately weak and yields continue to fall, risk assets have a chance to launch a second leg up. What do you think after tonight’s non-farm comes out—will BTC hold above 82,500 and continue to rise, or will it first pull back to 80,000? The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.