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In a high interest rate environment, more important than "who grows faster" is who can consistently make money. Brothers, earlier we talked about interest rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, and asset volatility. This time, looking at Morgan Stanley's macro outlook, I am more focused on one question: If the cost of capital doesn't come down soon, where should we focus our attention? Morgan Stanley's recent public view expects that after a rate hike in September, the Federal Reserve may also raise rates by 25 basis points each in December and March next year. Note, this is an institutional forecast, not a confirmed policy arrangement. Morgan Stanley's public view If this scenario materializes, investment logic cannot always be based on "immediate rate cuts and instant valuation recovery." For companies, the most realistic impact of high interest rates is that borrowing becomes more expensive. When expanding production, R&D, or building data centers, some companies can rely on operating profits, while others must continuously raise funds. When market sentiment is good, both can talk about growth; when capital becomes expensive, the difference will gradually show. Therefore, strong cash flow is worth paying attention to, but it’s not just about how much cash is on the books. What I care more about is: can profits truly be collected? After deducting money needed to maintain operations and necessary investments, how much is left? When debts mature in concentrated periods over the next few years, will companies need to borrow new funds at high costs to repay old debts? Analysis of domestic demand can also start from cash inflows. If residents prefer to repay loans and increase savings rather than consume and borrow to expand, companies cannot just prove themselves by "large industry space." Whether products have real demand, whether customers are willing to pay, and whether orders can ultimately turn into cash inflows will become more important. This does not mean growth stocks cannot be bought, nor does it mean high dividends are necessarily safe. Growth companies may have ample cash and strong profitability; high dividend companies may cut dividends due to profit declines. Going overseas is also not a panacea; tariffs, exchange rates, overseas costs, and whether revenue growth can leave profits must be considered. For ordinary investors, my understanding of "defense" is not to sell everything upon hearing about rate hikes, but to reduce reliance on a single optimistic assumption. Leave room in your regular investment budget, set limits for additional purchases; look at both company quality and purchase price. Even the best companies can experience long periods of drawdown if bought too expensively. Macro forecasts will adjust, institutional views will change. What can truly remain in an investment plan are these more specific questions: how does the company make money, can it bear its debt, and how long can you hold it yourself. Rather than chasing so-called certainty, it’s better to first reduce risks that, if judged wrong, would make it impossible to continue investing.

Understanding financial news starts with distinguishing these three numbers Brothers, recently several terms have repeatedly appeared in the news: PMI strengthening, US Treasury yields rising, economic growth forecast adjustments. They all seem familiar, but if you don’t understand what the numbers represent, it’s easy to mistake “the economy is good” for “stocks must rise,” or interpret “yields rising” as “bondholders are all making money.” Using these news items, let me explain three truly practical pieces of knowledge. First, PMI is 58.4, not that the economy grew by 58.4%. PMI is based on surveys of businesses, observing changes in business activity compared to the previous month. 50 is a critical dividing line: above 50 usually indicates expansion, below 50 usually indicates contraction. So, a drop from 58 to 54 still means expansion, just possibly at a slower pace; a rise from 48 to 49 does not mean growth has resumed, but that the contraction may be easing. S&P Global explains this. This also explains why strong economic data can coincide with a falling stock market: resilient growth is good, but if accompanied by price pressures, the market may raise interest rate hike expectations, putting valuation under pressure. You can’t just look at a single aggregate number; you also need to consider price, orders, and employment sub-indices. Second, rising US Treasury yields do not mean the original holders are earning more. Assume a fixed-interest bond pays 5 units annually. You buy it for 100 units, so the current yield is 5%; if the market price falls to 90 units, a new buyer paying 90 units still receives the same 5 units, so the current yield is about 5.56%. The interest hasn’t changed, but the purchase price has. For the original buyer who paid 100 units, the market price has actually dropped on paper. This calculation is current yield, not yield to maturity which includes principal and remaining term factors. Third, economic shocks have a lag and won’t be fully reflected on the same day. After oil prices rise, transport companies may first consume inventories, factories may temporarily absorb costs themselves, and only after contract renewals and inventory depletion will prices gradually adjust. The impact on consumers and business investment may also appear later. The OECD’s latest forecast expects global economic growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, and warns that the growth drag from energy shocks may be more apparent from year-end to early next year. This is a forecast, not a result that has already occurred. OECD outlook So, when reading news, first ask three questions: What does this number measure? Compared to what? How long will it take for the impact to show? Understanding these is more valuable than rushing to judge every piece of news as good or bad.

Why does gold sometimes fall and sometimes rise with the same interest rate increase? (Part 2) The previous article mentioned that high interest rates did not drive all gold buyers away. This article goes a step further: why do interest rates rise? This question is more important than just focusing on "U.S. Treasury yields breaking 5%." Assuming strong economic growth, the market believes the Federal Reserve needs to maintain higher interest rates while inflation expectations remain relatively stable. Then real yields may rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, and gold prices tend to come under pressure. But there is another scenario. If investors worry about recurring inflation, increased government bond issuance, or the greater uncertainty of holding long-term bonds, they may demand higher yields as compensation. In this case, rising yields do not just mean "bonds have become more attractive," but may also imply "this money will be lent out for a long time, so I need more compensation." In such a scenario, some funds might simultaneously increase gold allocations to diversify inflation, fiscal, and geopolitical risks. The World Gold Council also lists fiscal concerns and central bank gold purchases as key factors in understanding gold's resilience. Research reference But we cannot reverse this logic: a rise in yields does not necessarily indicate an impending U.S. debt crisis, nor does a higher interest rate automatically make gold more worth pursuing. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields include factors such as future short-term rate expectations and term premiums. A single yield level alone cannot determine which force is dominant. Therefore, when I analyze gold, I consider several factors together: real yields, the U.S. dollar trend, gold ETF fund flows, as well as central bank gold purchases and risk events. It is especially important to distinguish time horizons. Central bank allocations may focus on years, while trading funds might quickly reduce positions based on the day's data. Long-term support exists but cannot prevent short-term profit-taking and liquidity shocks. For us, a more valuable question about gold is what role it plays in the portfolio. If it is for risk diversification, then allocation ratios and rebalancing should be considered, rather than buying it as the largest single position just because of the word "safe haven." Buying physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks involves different risks. Together, these two articles boil down to one sentence: gold is never determined solely by interest rates. Understanding the reasons behind rising rates is more useful than mechanically remembering "rate hikes are bearish, rate cuts are bullish."

US Treasury yields break through 5%, so why is money still flowing into gold? (Part 1) Brothers, in the past when looking at gold, many people remembered one rule: when interest rates rise, gold comes under pressure. The logic is not complicated. Gold itself does not pay interest; the higher the bond yield, the more interest is forgone by holding gold. But if you judge the market solely by this rule, it’s easy to get confused: why does gold still see inflows when interest rates are not low? First, let’s look at some already released data. According to the World Gold Council, in August 2026, global physically backed gold ETFs had a net inflow of about $18 billion, with holdings increasing by 121 tons to reach 4,189 tons, a record high. This indicates that a considerable amount of capital was willing to increase gold allocation that month. However, buying a lot in August doesn’t mean buying will continue in September, nor does it mean gold won’t fall. Here, it’s important to distinguish: nominal yield and real yield are not the same. The “10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 5%” we see is the nominal yield. When analyzing gold’s opportunity cost, the market also pays attention to the real yield after deducting inflation, often referencing the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield. Secondly, different buyers have different purposes for buying gold. Some compare gold’s returns with bonds, some want to diversify stock risk, and central banks allocate for reserve diversification. These demands don’t disappear just because US Treasury yields rise a bit. The World Gold Council’s research also points out that risk hedging demand and central bank gold purchases can continue to support gold even when real interest rates are relatively high. So, the idea that “rising interest rates suppress gold” still holds, but it’s not the only force. When other demands are stronger, gold prices don’t necessarily move according to interest rates alone. This also relates to last night’s market: when the dollar and yields strengthen, gold still falls. Short-term pressure and long-term allocation can happen simultaneously. For ordinary investors, I think the most important thing to avoid is jumping from “you can’t buy gold when rates rise” to “gold is no longer afraid of rate hikes.” Gold has a hedging function, but its price is not guaranteed. What’s truly worth studying is who is buying, why they are buying, and how long these demands can last.

BTC from breaking through 86,000 to falling back to 84,000: the rise isn’t that simple, and don’t rush to conclusions about the fall Brothers, a few days ago we were still discussing BTC breaking through $86,000, and today it’s back near $84,000. Those who just felt they missed out might now start worrying if the rally is over. Looking at these days together is more meaningful than just focusing on today’s ups and downs. To clarify: yesterday it wasn’t that the Fed announced a second rate hike, but officials expressed hawkish views, combined with stronger economic data, which made the market raise expectations for further hikes. Why did BTC rise after the previous rate hike was implemented, but now, just signaling continued hikes, the price fell? The key is that the market trades not only on the news itself but on the difference between the news and prior expectations. A rate hike that was already expected may not continue to suppress prices after it happens; but if funds originally expected "one hike and that’s about it," and now realize there may be more hikes ahead and high rates may last longer, they need to recalculate. This pressure isn’t just in the crypto space. Last night, the Nasdaq fell about 1.1%, the S&P 500 dropped about 0.7%. U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and Bitcoin and gold also retreated, reflecting a reassessment of interest rate and inflation risks by capital. Back to BTC itself, from 86,000 down to 84,000, the difference between these two price points is about 2.3%. This is a price comparison, not the daily drop, nor the maximum drawdown calculated from the latest high. It shows the previous rise is being tested, but this pullback alone is not enough to confirm the rally is over. Likewise, you can’t just say "normal consolidation" and assume it will definitely rise back later. Next, I’m more focused on three things: whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise; whether spot and ETF funds can keep flowing in; and whether rebounds have real trading support, not just short-term price spikes. For dollar-cost averaging, the worst is fearing missing out at 86,000 and spending the budget early; then at 84,000, panic overturns the long-term plan. My approach is to arrange basic investments according to cash flow, set a separate limit for extra buys, not gamble on rebounds with emergency funds, and not use leverage to make up for "missed gains." This round of ups and downs reminds us: BTC can have its own long-term logic, but in the short term it will still be affected by the dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. Being optimistic long-term and acknowledging current pressures are not contradictory.

The Nasdaq just hit a new high, but rate hike expectations are cooling down again: Why are US stocks and crypto both under pressure? Brothers, we were discussing the Nasdaq's new high just the day before, and last night the market started worrying about rate hikes again. On September 23, Federal Reserve Governor Barr said that further policy adjustments might be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target in a timely manner. This refers to the possibility of continuing rate hikes, not that a new rate decision has already been made. But the market won't wait for the policy to be officially implemented before acting. That day, stronger-than-expected PMI data combined with inflation pressure made investors reassess: if the economy remains resilient and prices don’t come down, high interest rates may have to persist longer. The reactions across various assets were also very direct. In US stocks, the Nasdaq closed down about 1.1%, the S&P 500 fell about 0.7%, and tech stocks that just hit new highs faced rate pressure again. In crypto, Bitcoin fell back to around $84,200 near 2 PM Eastern Time, down about $2,000 compared to the New York Stock Exchange briefing benchmark. At the same time, gold was around $4,327, down about $50, while Brent crude oil actually rose to about $102.55. Not all assets are falling; rather, capital is reassessing inflation and interest rate risks. Why are US stocks and crypto both under pressure? For stocks, rising interest rates increase financing costs and reduce the present value of future profits. Companies that rely more on long-term growth and have higher valuations are usually more sensitive. For crypto, a stronger dollar and higher funding costs suppress risk appetite. If combined with forced liquidations of highly leveraged positions, volatility may further increase. But we cannot conclude the scale of liquidations just based on price drops. This also reminds us: holding both tech stocks and Bitcoin does not mean risks are fully diversified. Under interest rate shocks, they may both pull back together. For dollar-cost averaging, I focus more on whether the budget can be sustained rather than changing the entire plan based on a single statement. Gains don’t double suddenly, losses don’t tap into emergency funds, and losses aren’t recovered by adding leverage. New highs don’t mean risks disappear, and a single day’s drop doesn’t prove the bull market is over. What really needs to be tracked going forward are inflation, employment, and whether corporate earnings can withstand higher funding costs.

Nasdaq Hits New High Again: History Can Be a Reference, But Don't Treat Months as Buy or Sell Signals Brothers, the Nasdaq has hit a new high again. On September 22, the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a new intraday record. The backdrop for this improved market risk appetite includes strong tech stocks and falling oil prices. Source Looking at the historical statistics of "September being weak and November being strong" is quite interesting at this point: if you decide not to hold positions in September this year just because of poor historical September performance, you might just miss the rally. Seasonality can provide a reference, but the market does not trade according to the calendar. Especially in the past 5 years, each calendar month only has 5 samples. A particularly large rise or fall in one year can significantly skew the average. The average gain does not equal the probability of an increase, nor does it represent your actual return after buying in. So does hitting a new high mean you can make money by chasing now? History does not guarantee that either. During the 2000 tech bubble, the Nasdaq Composite Index also kept hitting new highs. But after the bubble burst, it wasn’t until 2015 that it broke the previous closing record again. That was about a 15-year gap. Historical review This is not to say 2000 will repeat today, but to remind ourselves: a new high means the price has broken past before, but it does not mean future returns are guaranteed. I think ordinary investors are most likely to lose out by switching back and forth between two emotions. When prices fall, they think it will go lower and hesitate to start; when prices hit new highs, they think the opportunity is only today and invest their budget for several months all at once. It seems like they watch the market every day, but their actual execution is always a last-minute decision. So for long-term dollar-cost averaging, what’s more worth checking after a new high is your plan: Can you sustain the monthly contributions? After tech stocks rise, is your portfolio overly concentrated? If a pullback comes next, do you still have emergency funds? Basic dollar-cost averaging doesn’t need to stop just because of a new high, nor should you suddenly double down out of fear of missing out. Additional investments should have a budget and rationale, not be driven by that day’s gains. What this new high reminds me is: don’t easily dismiss the market because of a "historically weak month," and don’t forget the risks just because records are being broken. The most useful thing about history is to help us set expectations, not to predict next month.

Behind the Renminbi Appreciation: It's Not Just About Exports, But Also Whether Ordinary People Dare to Spend Brothers, when talking about the Renminbi exchange rate, many people's first reaction is: strong exports, earning more US dollars, so the Renminbi should appreciate. This logic is only partially correct. After companies receive US dollars, they can convert them, keep them to pay for imports, repay dollar debts, or use them for overseas investments. Therefore, a trade surplus does not equal an equivalent scale of Renminbi buying, nor does it necessarily mean the exchange rate will rise unilaterally. To understand the Renminbi, we also need to look at how money flows domestically. A household, if income expectations are unstable and it has to bear mortgage, pension, medical, and education expenses, may not be willing to consume even if it has savings. If people don't dare to spend, companies will be more cautious about expanding production, hiring, and investing. Whether domestic demand can improve depends not only on whether goods are cheap but also on whether income can grow and future expenses are more secure. So, will improved domestic demand push the Renminbi to appreciate? You can't directly equate them. Increased consumption and investment may drive imports and increase foreign exchange demand; but if corporate profits and investment returns improve simultaneously, it may also attract capital inflows. Ultimately, the exchange rate movement depends on the combined effect of these forces. There is also a long-term factor: industrial productivity. If companies can produce more competitive products and increase added value, it may drive income and wage growth. But the productivity-driven "real exchange rate appreciation" does not mean the Renminbi will necessarily keep rising against the US dollar; the two should not be confused. For ordinary people, the most direct impact of the exchange rate is actually in their bills. When the Renminbi strengthens, all else equal, the Renminbi cost of outbound travel, studying abroad, and purchasing imported goods may decrease; but for those holding US dollar assets, the returns converted back to Renminbi may be partially offset by the exchange rate. A simple example: US stocks rise 10%, while the US dollar falls 5% against the Renminbi during the same period, the Renminbi-denominated return is about 4.5%, not 10%, and this excludes fees and taxes. Therefore, when allocating overseas assets, you need to consider both the assets themselves and what currency you will use to spend in the future. Whether the Renminbi has long-term support depends on productivity, income, capital flows, and policy environment. Drawing the conclusion that "long-term appreciation is certain" just because exports are good or the US dollar has fallen for a few days is still premature. Understanding the exchange rate is to clearly calculate your own accounts, not to bet on its rise or fall in the opposite direction.

Brothers, we've been talking about the Federal Reserve and the US dollar interest rates earlier. Today, let's look at it from a different angle: if the RMB continues to appreciate, what will happen to our overseas assets? First, the conclusion: a stronger RMB may have the opposite effects on consumption and overseas investment. For traveling abroad, studying overseas, or purchasing goods priced in US dollars, the same amount of RMB can exchange for more dollars, potentially reducing spending pressure. But if you hold US stocks and eventually need to convert back to RMB for use, you can't just look at how much the stock price has risen; you also have to account for the exchange rate. For example, hypothetically: if US stocks rise 10%, while the USD to RMB exchange rate falls 5%, ignoring fees and taxes, the return in RMB terms is about 4.5%, not 10%. So, even if you pick the right assets, it doesn't mean the returns after converting back to your home currency will be the same. Does the RMB have a foundation for long-term appreciation? Industrial upgrading, productivity improvements, and better investment returns may provide support. But these factors don't directly imply that "the RMB will only appreciate and never depreciate in the future." The Balassa–Samuelson effect mentioned in the chart refers to the relative productivity increase in tradable sectors, which, through wages and service prices, drives real exchange rate appreciation. The most confusing part here is: real exchange rate appreciation does not necessarily mean the RMB's nominal exchange rate against the USD will continuously appreciate. Domestic and foreign price changes also affect the real exchange rate. A trade surplus is not an automatic appreciation button either. After exporters receive dollars, whether they immediately convert them, have overseas payment needs, and cross-border capital flows all influence foreign exchange market supply and demand. Add to that the China-US interest rate differential, overall USD trends, and market expectations, and the exchange rate is hard to predict with a single logic. For me, studying these is not to guess the most cost-effective exchange point, but to consider assets and future expenditures together. If your life mainly uses RMB, you need to keep enough RMB cash; if you have definite future USD expenses, you can prepare in batches according to timing. Investing in overseas assets also means accepting volatility in both asset prices and exchange rates. Especially, don't clear out overseas assets just because you expect RMB appreciation; and don't convert all your living emergency funds into USD just because you fear depreciation. Long-term allocation should allow for the possibility of being wrong. More important than guessing the exchange rate correctly is that when you need the money, you won't be forced to exchange or sell.